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At the moment, my top line still consists of the Villanova Wildcats (East, virtually assured of the top spot overall after winning both the Big East Tournament and regular season crowns), Kansas Jayhawks (Midwest), North Carolina Tar Heels (South), and Gonzaga Bulldogs (West).
But when I do my final scrub, re-evaluation and reseeding of the field this morning and afternoon, I’m going to do a careful comparison of the ACC Tournament champion Duke Blue Devils profile against those of the Tar Heels and Bulldogs.
I’m inclined to keep Gonzaga in the top spot out West, as the Bulldogs have just one loss and claimed both the West Coast Conference tournament and regular season titles. Quibble with the quality of the league if you must, but if a team’s body of work matters, the Bulldogs won’t fall to a two.
But comparing the two Tobacco Road rivals will be more difficult. The teams are very close in most of the main factors (quality wins, bad losses, record away from home, RPI), with strength of schedule looking like the main differentiators. One thing working against Duke is the fact that no eight-loss team has ever been placed on the bracket’s top line. But since it looks like the 2017 bracket will be the first to include a 15-loss at-large squad, the Vanderbilt Commodores, it might just be the year when the Selection Committee throws precedent out the window.
After today’s full bracket and rundown, I’ll discuss the bubble, which is remarkably stable after a Saturday that went almost ideally for the main contenders.
No. 1 East (Left) and No. 2 Midwest (Right)
| New York (Fri/Sun) | Kansas City (Thu/Sat) |
|---|---|
| New York (Fri/Sun) | Kansas City (Thu/Sat) |
| Buffalo (Thu/Sat) | Tulsa (Fri/Sun) |
| 1. VILLANOVA (Big East) | 1. Kansas |
| 16. UC DAVIS/N.C. CENTRAL | 16. NEW ORLEANS/S.D. STATE |
| 8. South Carolina | 8. WICHITA STATE (MVC) |
| 9. Northwestern | 9. Virginia Tech |
| Buffalo (Thu/Sat) | Orlando (Thu/Sat) |
| 5. Virginia | 5. Florida |
| 12. VERMONT (AE) | 12. UNC WILMINGTON (CAA) |
| 4. West Virginia | 4. Notre Dame |
| 13. Princeton (Ivy) | 13. E. TENNESSEE ST. (SoCon) |
| Orlando (Thu/Sat) | Sacramento (Fri/Sun) |
| 6. Minnesota | 6. Michigan |
| 11. Dayton | 11. Vanderbilt |
| 3. Florida State | 3. UCLA |
| 14. FLA. GULF COAST (ASUN) | 14. WINTHROP (Big South) |
| Sacramento (Fri/Sun) | Greenville (Fri/Sun) |
| 7. Arkansas | 7. Saint Mary's |
| 10. Marquette | 10. Seton Hall |
| 2. Oregon | 2. DUKE (ACC) |
| 15. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC) | 15. Texas State (Sun Belt) |
No. 4 West (Left) and No. 3 South (Right)
| San José (Thu/Sat) | Memphis (Fri/Sun) |
|---|---|
| San José (Thu/Sat) | Memphis (Fri/Sun) |
| Salt Lake City (Thu/Sat) | Greenville (Fri/Sun) |
| 1. GONZAGA (WCC) | 1. North Carolina |
| 16. JACKSONVILLE ST. (OVC) | 16. MT. ST. MARY'S (NEC) |
| 8. Miami | 8. Va. Commonwealth (A 10) |
| 9. Xavier | 9. Oklahoma State |
| Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) | Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) |
| 5. Purdue | 5. Wisconsin (Big Ten) |
| 12. NEVADA (MW) | 12. Rhode Island/USC |
| 4. IOWA STATE (Big 12) | 4. Butler |
| 13. NEW MEXICO ST. (WAC) | 13. BUCKNELL (Patriot) |
| Indianapolis (Fri/Sun) | Tulsa (Fri/Sun) |
| 6. Cincinnati | 6. SMU (American) |
| 11. Providence/Syracuse | 11. Wake Forest |
| 3. Louisville | 3. Baylor |
| 14. NTHN. KENTUCKY (Horizon) | 14. IONA (MAAC) |
| Salt Lake City (Thu/Sat) | Indianapolis (Fri/Sun) |
| 7. Creighton | 7. Maryland |
| 10. Michigan State | 10. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (C-USA) |
| 2. ARIZONA (Pac-12) | 2. Kentucky (SEC) |
| 15. NORTH DAKOTA (Big Sky) | 15. KENT STATE (MAC) |
First Four
| EAST | MIDWEST | SOUTH | WEST |
|---|---|---|---|
| EAST | MIDWEST | SOUTH | WEST |
| To Buffalo (Tue.) | To Tulsa (Wed.) | To Milwaukee (Tue.) | To Indianapolis (Wed.) |
| 16. UC DAVIS (Big West) | 16. NEW ORLEANS (Southland) | 12. Rhode Island | 11. Providence |
| 16. N.C. CENTRAL (MEAC) | 16. S. DAKOTA ST. (Summit) | 12. USC | 11. Syracuse |
Rundown
| LAST FOUR IN | FIRST FOUR OUT | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAST FOUR IN | FIRST FOUR OUT | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
| Providence (44) | Kansas State | Kent State | Akron |
| Rhode Island (45) | Illinois State | New Mexico State | Cal State Bakersfield |
| USC (46) | Monmouth | Texas State | UC Irvine |
| Syracuse (47) | UT Arlington | UC Davis | UT Arlington |
On Saturday, just about everything broke right for the few teams in contention for the final four places in the field. Most of the bid poachers were cleared from their respective conference tournaments on Saturday afternoon. Then as the evening rolled on, two of the more likely mid-major at-large contenders — the Mountain West’s Nevada Wolf Pack and Conference USA’s Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders — won their conference tournament titles. So that eliminated two more possibilities from the at-large pool.
Of the eight teams in contention for the quartet of “Last Four In” spots, only the Rhode Island Rams can take matters out of the Selection Committee’s hands. If Dan Hurley’s team wins this afternoon’s Atlantic 10 Tournament final (12:30 p.m. ET, CBS), it’s in and out of the First Four in Dayton.
After the completion of that game this afternoon, I’ll post one final look at the cut line. At the moment, it seems like five teams — the USC Trojans, Syracuse Orange, and Providence Friars (currently in this projection) and the Kansas State Wildcats and Illinois State Redbirds (out at the moment) — are in contention for the final three spots. I don’t envy the Selection Committee in making this decision in real life.
Meanwhile, keep up with everything in real time. Check out our full NCAA bracket, updating live throughout March Madness. You can find a printable bracket here.