In a multi-round, single-elimination tournament, winning is like winning a lottery. Per ESPN’s FPI, the team with the best chance of lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy — the New Orleans Saints — have only a 30.5 percent chance of doing so; less than one-in-three. Each team is fatally flawed, and only one of 12 will avoid ending the season with a loss.
However, one will win the Super Bowl and it won’t completely be due to luck. The champs are the team that leverages their strengths the best over a three- to four-game period, and each of these teams have definitive strengths.
So for each team left standing, let’s look at the advantages that would lead to a title, no matter how unlikely said title may be. One again, we’ll use the SB Nation NFL data app for assistance.
AFC
The Kanas City Chiefs (12-4) offense is good at everything
Kansas City’s offense isn’t quite as dominant as it was before losing both running back Kareem Hunt and, temporarily, receiver Sammy Watkins. But the Chiefs are still absurdly well-rounded, ranking in the league’s top five in nearly every advanced (and not-as-advanced) statistical category and leading the league in points scored. They scored at least 26 points in every game and averaged 36 points per game against playoff teams.
They are going to get their points. You might, too, of course — playoff teams also averaged 36 PPG against them — but you’re going to have to. Even against a dominant Baltimore defense that confused Patrick Mahomes as well as anyone and made as many stops as you could possibly hope to make, the Chiefs still scored 27 points (24 in regulation) and averaged 5.3 yards per play. That was the floor.
This nearly perfect offense basically has one weakness: it can fall into third-and-longs pretty easily — over half of their third downs required seven or more yards to go (22nd in the league). But they countered that by a) producing the second-best third-and-long success rate in the league and b) generating 73 percent of their first downs before third down altogether.
The New England Patriots (11-5) are impossible to knock off-schedule
The Patriots are as reliably pass-centric as anyone in the league. Tom Brady has averaged at least 35 passes per game every year since 2006, and while his rate stats are a bit off of his 2016-17 late-career peak, they’re still superior to those of 2014, when the Patriots won the Super Bowl.
What’s funny is despite all this passing, New England’s offense fits the efficiency profile that you think you’d get from a run-first team. The Pats create and convert short third downs, they avoid passing downs, and they give opponents almost no chances to create takeaways with fumbles or passes into traffic. They are safe.
Offenses like the Chiefs’ and Chargers’ have more upside than New England’s, and lord knows the Patriots’ defense needs some work, but New England’s offense error-free offense makes it maybe the safest bet in the AFC. Again.
The Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) win blitz downs, no matter who has the ball
For the Chargers’ fatal flaw, I noted that they are prone to facing more blitz downs than their opponents, and considering they’ll likely be playing all of their playoff games on the road, that seems like something that will catch up to them.
It hasn’t yet, though. They may face more blitz downs than their opponents, but they convert them at a much higher rate (34 percent to 26 percent). And when they convert them, they’re not picking up eight yards on third-and-8 like their opponent is — they’re picking up 18. Maybe more.
This is a dangerous way of living, but there’s a reason why Los Angeles is 7-1 on the road this year. It’s absurd that a 12-4 team doesn’t get to play at home in the playoffs, but the Chargers are better equipped to overcome that than any team in recent memory.
The Indianapolis Colts (10-6) leverage the field and finish drives
An inefficient pass defense will likely spell doom for Indianapolis at some point pretty soon, but the Colts have developed a strong identity, and it’s why they won nine of 10 games to reach the playoffs at all.
What’s that identity? Well, like New England, it starts with an efficient passing game. The Colts are just 28th in rushing marginal efficiency, but they’re still brilliant at creating manageable third downs (in open play, they are fourth in average third-down distance and fifth in third-down success rate) because of Andrew Luck and a receiving corps that gets contributions from everywhere — receiver (T.Y. Hilton and Chester Rogers), tight end (Eric Ebron), and running back (Nyheim Hines).
The combination of offensive efficiency, strong run defense, and what was, per Football Outsiders, the third-best punting unit in the league, has resulted in a brilliant field position game for the Colts. And if you create shorter drives for yourself and finish your scoring opportunities well (and again, despite the poor run game, the Colts do that brilliantly), then you’re giving yourself a shot. And Indy has given itself a shot in every game since October 4.
NFC
Yeah, good luck getting the ball away from Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (13-3)
The New Orleans defense can rush the passer and create turnover opportunities, but it’s still a weak link overall. But that only matters so much when you’ve got Brees. Heading into Week 17 (when Brees sat during a meaningless loss to the Panthers), New Orleans ranked in the top five in a majority of offensive categories, including some of the most important: third in marginal efficiency, second in points per scoring opportunity, fifth in expected turnovers (a measure derived from your total fumbles and passes defensed).
Like New England, New Orleans has a passing game that’s safer than most run games; unlike New England, the Saints also boast one of the best run games in the league — they were fifth in rushing efficiency and sixth in rushing explosiveness heading into the weekend. They can do whatever you can’t stop.
Against the Steelers, they also rebounded from what appeared to be a late-year funk. After averaging 37.2 points per game through 11 games, they averaged just 16.7 over their next three, looking listless in a 13-10 loss to Dallas and narrowly surviving Carolina, 12-9, in Week 15. But they posted 31 points and 6.1 yards per play against a Steeler team that will go down as one of the best to ever miss the playoffs, and now Brees will get another week of rest before facing either Dallas, Seattle, or Philadelphia. It would be a surprise if this offense wasn’t enough to get them to at least the conference title game.
The Los Angeles Rams’ (13-3) offense is untouchable in open play (and most of your plays are in open play)
I define open play as any snaps that take place between your 10 and your opponent’s 30. Situational play matters, obviously, but 75 percent of a game’s snaps take place in open play — the teams that are best there are probably the teams that are the best.
Los Angeles is potentially the best team in open play. The defense is decent there (10th in standard downs success rate, 12th in third down success rate), and the offense is untouchable.
The Rams have a potential turnovers issue — 19th in expected turnovers on offense, 21st on defense — and they’re not as efficient in the red zone as some other playoff teams. But they are unstoppable in that 60-yard range that constitutes open play. They’re probably going to create more scoring chances than you, and you’re probably going to struggle to overcome that, even if the Rams defense isn’t as dominant as you would think it should be.
The Dallas Cowboys’ (10-6) defense does the important things right
Make a list in your head of the best defenses in the league. Chicago, Baltimore, and Houston will definitely be on there, as will non-playoff teams like Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Buffalo. It might take you a while to think of putting Dallas’ defense on that list, and that’s a mistake: the Cowboys have one of the sturdiest defenses in the playoffs.
Until Sunday’s strange and mostly meaningless Week 17 shootout with the Giants, Dallas hadn’t allowed more than 28 points in a game all year. Against playoff teams, they allowed just 19.8 points per game. Granted, they also only scored 16.3 points per game against playoff teams, but still.
They defend the run well (which should come in handy against wildcard opponent Seattle), they prevent big pass plays (which will get significantly tested against the Seahawks), and they’re excellent in the red zone (eighth in points allowed per scoring opportunities). They likely won’t get too far because of their inefficient offense, but they’re going to be a tough out.
Third downs against the Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) are third-and-longs
It’s really difficult to paint Philadelphia as a serious contender, but if you can get your defense off the field on third downs, you’re going to give yourself a chance in any game. In open-play situations, the Eagles create the longest third downs in the league, and they’re at least decent at capitalizing on them.
Granted, there are caveats. They don’t create enough third downs — in open play, they are 21st in the percentage of first downs opponents generate on first or second down, and they’re dead last in big-play rate allowed. This is their fatal flaw, and it’s severely enmeshed with their biggest strength.
That means you absolutely have to capitalize when you indeed find a third-and-long situation. But Philly has, and that’s a major reason why they won five of their last six games and squeezed into the playoffs. They were out-gained in two of those five wins, too — they’ll let you maneuver down the field, but they have been able to count on stopping before you get all the way into the end zone.