The New England Patriots failed to win Super Bowl 52. With a 40-year-old quarterback, the league’s second-oldest head coach, and a locker room reportedly fraught with tension, there’s one question that looms above all the rest: Was this Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s last great shot to lift the Lombardi Trophy?
The Patriots built a dynasty spanning nearly two decades around two men — the reigning NFL MVP and a perpetual Coach of the Year candidate. The rest of their skyscraper is constructed from athletes ranging from hardworking role players to Pro Bowl invitees and coaches who have bought into Belichick’s successful methods whole hog. As long as both can operate at or near a high level, the system works; 2017 was proof.
But the clock is ticking on two aging men battling to be considered the greatest of all time. Belichick’s been to 11 Super Bowls, including eight as a head coach, and has nothing to prove other than the idea he can live a happy life without football. Even in his rosiest projections, Brady only has four years left as a player. While he retained his status as one of the league’s best players, time will be coming to collect on his age-defying career — the only question is when.
Fortunately for New England, both appear to be on track for 2018, and a solidly constructed roster doesn’t leave too many question marks for the future. The Patriots will have to make some moves this offseason, finding the low-cost contributors and reclamation projects with which they’ve thrived while cutting the fat from a lineup whose only failure was its inability to win the Super Bowl.
Who could leave the Patriots in free agency this offseason?
The Patriots will have to make some decisions when it comes to retaining their impending free agents this spring. Super Bowl 49 hero and former All-Pro Malcolm Butler will be an unrestricted free agent for the first time since entering the league as an undrafted rookie. After being relegated to the bench throughout Super Bowl 52, he seems a safe bet to leave the franchise.
Left tackle Nate Solder could also be trading in his red, white, and blue uniform in 2018. The 6’8 bookend has protected Brady’s blindside since 2011, but the combination of his age (he’ll be 30 in April) and the likelihood he’ll command an expensive contract could price him out of a return to Foxborough.
Dion Lewis is another candidate to leave. Although Lewis emerged as a legit No. 1 tailback with the Patriots, Belichick has never been one to rely too heavily on any one running back. While he provides tremendous value thanks to his versatility as a runner, receiver, and special teamer, he’s another player whom the team could let depart if the price isn’t right.
Ditto, just not as enthusiastically, for Rex Burkhead.
After that, the team’s list of potential free agents is a lineup of developing role players and veterans who can continue to chase Super Bowl rings with the franchise. Matthew Slater and Danny Amendola are the kind of low-cost veteran leaders on which the team relies; they’ll be back. Cameron Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle are young, still-improving offensive linemen who can be retained inexpensively. James Harrison ... well, James Harrison is going to do whatever the hell he wants, and there’s no use in predicting anything besides the fact he’ll release some head-scratching workout videos this summer.
Who could be cut (or retire)?
The following players either have underproduced, are prohibitively expensive, or combine the two traits. Assuming Rob Gronkowski returns to the field despite his lack of commitment after Super Bowl 52, one of either Martellus Bennett or Dwayne Allen will likely be dumped. Bennett, who expressed interest in retirement last fall, would wipe nearly $6.2 million from the team’s books if he leaves. Cutting Allen, who had just 10 receptions in his first year with the team but was a useful blocker, would save $5 million.
Releasing Alan Branch, who was inactive for the Super Bowl and coped with that news with some Panda Express, saves $3.5 million. Two other Super Bowl inactives, David Harris and Mike Gillislee, cost nearly $5 million to keep but only $625,000 to cut. With Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell set to return in 2018, Kenny Britt and Phillip Dorsett could also wind up on the chopping block, saving $3 million in the process.
Those moves alone — assuming Bennett retires and the team gives Allen another shot — would give the Patriots an estimated $34 million in cap space this offseason. That’s enough money to bring in a marquee player while searching for the inexpensive contributors Belichick has used to build his rosters in the past. While jumping head-first into a big signing hasn’t typically been the franchise’s strategy, last year’s $65 million deal for cornerback Stephon Gilmore signaled the team may be more willing than ever to spend big as Brady’s career winds to a close.
Which key contributors are expected to return to the Patriots in 2018?
Even if they lose all their pending free agents, New England is set to return eight of their opening-week starters on the offensive side of the ball and nine on the defensive side. That includes the team’s top two receivers (Brandin Cooks and Gronkowski), its sack leader (Trey Flowers), and interception leader (Duron Harmon).
But the biggest boost may come from the players who missed the bulk of the 2017 season. Pro Bowlers Edelman and Dont’a Hightower, who missed 27 games between them, are slated for a healthy return to the lineup. Same with Marcus Cannon, the right tackle who played in only seven games. Less-heralded absentees Mitchell and Shea McClellin will add an additional boost and important versatility to a team breaking in new coordinators on each side of the ball.
A solid core of draft assets will help add young playmakers to a championship roster. New England only has five picks in the 2018 NFL draft, but four of those come in the first three rounds. Given Belichick’s history of trading back to pick up undervalued prospects, it seems a safe bet they’ll leave Texas with more than just five players.
And then there’s the linchpin ...
Tom Brady, though
Brady will be 41 next season. That alone will raise some doubts about his viability. He’s also coming off an MVP performance and just threw for 505 yards in the Super Bowl.
That should erase those doubts.
While he showed slight declines from his 2016 season, he remained a top-five passer in everything from passing yardage to touchdown passes to quarterback rating. Getting Brady at 90 percent of his peak still makes him one of the league’s best players — and as his second-half performances in the 2018 Super Bowl and AFC Championship game attest, there’s no one you’d want more with the game on the line (damning fumble not withstanding).
But what about the coaches?
Belichick is back, and it looked like his two top lieutenants wouldn’t be. Instead, he’s just losing one of them. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is now head coach of the Detroit Lions, but offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is surprisingly sticking around accepting, and then declining, the Indianapolis Colts’ head coaching job.
The Patriots have been able to overcome the defection of rising assistants in the past. When McDaniels first left the team in 2009 to coach the Denver Broncos, the club went 37-11 with one AFC Championship in the three years he spent away. One year later, the team lost Dean Pees, the defensive coordinator who went on to find success with Ravens. New England’s record over the next three seasons was 39-9.
The Patriots will usually promote from within to replace any coach. Since Belichick took over, no New England coordinator has ever taken the position without first serving as a lower-ranked team assistant. While no official announcement has been made, it seems likely linebackers coach Brian Flores — a man who received consideration during the Arizona Cardinals’ coaching search — will take Patricia’s spot.
If history is any indication, they’ll be qualified for the jobs, and the Patriots will roll on to a typically great season next fall.
There’s one last problem that could nullify the team’s strongest qualities — the reported growing rifts in the locker room
Seth Wickersham’s ESPN report highlighted a reported power struggle between New England’s three biggest personalities: Belichick, Brady, and team owner Robert Kraft. His report suggests the three have been quietly clashing over operations within the franchise, and that disconnect may be creating a growing storm cloud of discontent in New England.
Questions about management and player happiness only grew during the Super Bowl, Butler was shunted from starter to special teams duty, drawing the ire of current and former Patriots on social media.
Browner’s Instagram post was liked by Hightower, Jamie Collins and Alfonzo Dennard pic.twitter.com/uDGIzvcerH
— Mark Daniels (@MarkDanielsPJ) February 5, 2018
Browner wasn’t in the locker room before the game, but his comments present an easy narrative. Belichick’s policy of radio silence for non-essential issues will allow whispers of locker room dissent to grow through an arduous offseason, especially after Brady and other teammates showed their support for Butler. That, coupled with Gronkowski’s unwillingness to commit to the 2018 season in the moments following his team’s Super Bowl loss, will make the team’s interpersonal relationships a popular item throughout the 24-hour news cycle this spring, regardless of whether or not there’s a smoking gun linking these.
So while that may or may not be a season-derailing issue, it will be something the team has to do deal with this offseason. That’s good news for the rest of the AFC, because that could be the only thing that slows down a Patriot roster returning scores of talent — and the reigning NFL MVP — in 2018.