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4 expert tips for gambling on Week 4 in the NFL

SB Nation’s gambling guru hit the nail on the head in Week 3. Here’s his advice as we head into Week 4.

NFL: New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Week 3 in the NFL was wild; but if you placed a bet, hopefully you followed our advice as SB Nation’s gambling guru David Fucillo was four for four on his tips last week. That said, past performance is not indicative of future returns, but Fucillo is back with more advice for Week 4 in the NFL. And there are a lot of good games on deck this week.

1) 49ers vs. Chargers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)

The loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has swung the line from 4.5 points to 10.5 points and has a huge percentage of the betting public taking the Chargers. The 49ers are distinctly worse with C.J. Beathard as the starting quarterback, but the Chargers are not a particularly good team. They will probably win this game, but look for this to turn into a dogfight and take the points with San Francisco.

Quick advice: Take the points with the 49ers.

2) Bills vs. Packers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)

The Bills sprung the biggest upset of the year by beating the Vikings, while the Packers are coming off a tough loss to Washington. 71 percent of the money at William Hill is on the Bills, with a slight edge on the Bills at OddsShark. Aaron Rodgers-led Packers teams are 23-11 against the spread (ATS) in their last 34 games coming off a loss. With a 9.5-point spread, lay the points with the Packers bouncing back.

Quick advice: Go with the Packers.

3) Lions vs. Cowboys (1:00 p.m. ET, Fox)

Detroit is coming off a big upset of the Patriots, while Dallas couldn’t hang close with the Seahawks. The public is backing the Lions, which is not surprising. That being said, as soon as this line was set (Cowboys -3), I was comfortable taking Dallas. Lay the field goal with Detroit.

Quick advice: Take a gamble on the Cowboys.

4) Jets vs. Jaguars (1:00 p.m. ET, Fox)

Jacksonville is a 7.5-point favorite after a tough home upset loss to the Titans. The Jets are coming in with 10 days rest after a tough loss to the Browns. I think we’ll see the Jaguars bounce back and thump the Jets pretty good. Lay the points.

Quick advice: Trust the Jaguars to beat the Jets.

Additional reading:

Betting trends and analysis for the top games of Week 4

NFL picks Week 4: Packers, Patriots due for a rebound?