I can’t believe it, folks. There are only two weeks left in the NFL regular season. As usual, this season has flown by, but it’s not finished yet! We’ve got awesome weekend ahead for us.
What will be the biggest surprise QB move in the offseason? — @PabloBison
Great question to begin this quarterback-heavy mailbag. I’d classify a surprise as something we don’t expect at all, right?
First, let’s list the quarterback moves that wouldn’t surprise us:
- Cam Newton traded
- Mitchell Trubisky benched/competition brought in/fifth-year option not picked up
- Ryan Tannehill re-signed by the Titans
- Teddy Bridgewater re-signed by the Saints
- Jameis Winston re-signed by the Bucs
- Philip Rivers retiring
- Andy Dalton leaving the Bengals
So that leaves few options for surprises, and some possibilities don’t make much sense at the moment. For example, the Lions could draft a young QB (and might still) to replace Matthew Stafford, but that seems less likely with Matt Patricia being bought back. Derek Carr being released, or getting replaced (more on that below), may or may not happen. I don’t think it would be a surprise, though.
With that being said, I’ll take a stab at this.
The Cowboys not re-signing Dak Prescott would be the biggest surprise of the offseason. If the Cowboys don’t win the NFC East, I could see them deciding to move on. Prescott wouldn’t be the only reason, or really the reason at all, the Cowboys don’t make the playoffs, but they’ve seemed hesitant to pay him and now he’s going to want more money than before the season.
Again, I don’t think it’s likely the Cowboys do this, but it would be the biggest surprise of the offseason if it happened.
If you’re the Raiders, do you move on from Derek Carr? — @jimrunsfar
Yes they should, but this is complicated. First, I’ll explain the yes. Carr is just average, and he will need all the parts around him to play well if he wants to win playoff games. He’s 13th in QBR this season, up from 27th last season. The year before was also low (20th).
If that improvement is enough for the future, so be it, but he’s been bad against his division, which won’t ever help him make the playoffs. His two lowest QBR games this season were easily against the Chiefs. His fourth-worst was against the Chargers. And I think just being average is his ceiling.
Also, I never got the sense that Jon Gruden and Derek Carr have ever formed a relationship. Hard Knocks was painful to watch.
The issue with getting rid of Carr becomes his replacement, not his contract. I believe the Raiders would turn to the draft for a Carr replacement. Gruden could pick the quarterback he wants, the Raiders would have a QB under a better cap number, and they could build around him.
However, the 2020 QB class has three players who you’d start right away: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert. The Raiders would need to trade up to grab one of those. If they ditch Carr and don’t land one of those players, it would be a mistake. They’d have no one to play quarterback.
So, I think it’s more likely the Raiders keep Carr and draft a young quarterback to build for the future.
I’m a very average dude who played high school sports. Does a guy like me have a better chance of recording a sack in an NFL game or catching a 10-yard pass? —@Kevin_Michael10
Oh, I love these questions so much because the answer is almost always no. It could never happen. But since this is an either/or question, I can have some fun with it.
The answer is catching a pass for multiple reasons. The sack is almost impossible. First, you’re not beating a NFL offensive lineman. In fact, you’d most likely get injured or be on the ground very quick.
And let’s just say you beat the lineman and run toward the QB. The ball will be gone. You aren’t fast enough to close on the QB. What if you closed on the QB? Well, you aren’t bringing him to the ground either. No chance.
So, I’d say catching a ball might be easier. You aren’t allowed to get touched after 5 yards, and the playcaller could scheme up a way to get you open. Barely open, but open enough.