These 5 teams could end Alabama's streak of No. 1 recruiting classes by Bud Elliott and Pete Volk

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Alabama has dominated Signing Day over the past half-decade, reeling in the nation's top recruiting class five years in a row. That gap has started to close, as USC very nearly overtook the Tide in the Class of 2015 consensus rankings and did rank No. 1 at Rivals and Scout.

There is now some real mystery regarding which recruiting power will sign the No. 1 class in February. Could Alabama's streak finally end?

In order to compete for the top mark, a team usually has to top 300 points on the 247Sports Composite. Alabama knows it well -- here are the top-ranked classes for each of the past 10 seasons.

Year Team Points
2006 USC 315
2007 Florida 310
2008 Notre Dame 295
2009 LSU 291
2010 Florida 324
2011 Alabama 299
2012 Alabama 310
2013 Alabama 319
2014 Alabama 320
2015 Alabama 311
Average 309

What does that look like within a class? The average No. 1 class over the past decade has had 27.7 commitments, with 18.5 blue-chippers (4.6 of them five-star prospects).

That means the nation's top class has, on average, been 67 percent blue-chippers and 17 percent five-stars.

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So these are the benchmarks for a No. 1-quality class ...

  • Final Composite points: 309
  • Final blue chip percentage: 67
  • Five-star signees: Four or five

... and here are the teams with the best chances to hit them.

Alabama

  • Current ranking: No. 4, 248 points
  • Current blue chip percentage: 55
  • Five-star commits: None
  • Important targets (Crystal ball favorite): DT Rashan Gary (Michigan), DE Shavar Manuel (FSU), OLB Lyndell Wilson (Alabama), OLB Ben Davis (Alabama), OT Greg Little (Alabama), CB Nigel Knott (Alabama), WR Cavin Ridley (Alabama)

Florida State

  • Current ranking: No. 3, 252 points
  • Current blue chip percentage: 65
  • Five-star commits: CB Levonta Taylor,
  • Important targets (Crystal ball favorite): DE Shavar Manuel (FSU), WR Nate Craig-Myers (FSU), DT Dexter Lawrence (Florida), LB Keion Joyner (LSU), CB Trayvon Mullen (LSU), OT Landon Dickerson (Virginia Tech)

Georgia

  • Current ranking: No. 8, 240 points
  • Current blue chip percentage: 44
  • Five-star commits: QB Jacob Eason
  • Important targets (Crystal ball favorite): DT Rashan Gary (Michigan), DT Derrick Brown (Georgia), WR Kyle Davis (Georgia), TE Isaac Nauta (Georgia), WR Mecole Hardman (Georgia), ATH Demetris Robertson (Georgia), S Nigel Warrior (Georgia), CB Shyheim Carter (Georgia), RB Elijah Holyfield (Auburn)

LSU

  • Current ranking: No. 2, 266 points
  • Current blue chip percentage: 66
  • Five-star commits: CB Saivion Smith, DT Edwin Alexander, S Eric Monroe
  • Important targets (Crystal ball favorite): DT Rashan Gary (Michigan), DT Rashard Lawrence (LSU), OT Willie Allen (LSU), CB Trayvon Mullen (LSU), Shavar Manuel (FSU), CB Kristian Fulton (LSU)

Ohio State

  • Current ranking: No. 1, 277 points
  • Current blue chip percentage: 74
  • Five-star commits: Nick Bosa
  • Important targets (Crystal ball favorite): WR Binjimen Victor (Florida), CB Damar Hamlin (Ohio State), DT Antwuan Jackson (Auburn)

USC

  • Current ranking: No. 6, 246 points
  • Current blue chip percentage: 75
  • Five-star commits: OLB Mique Juarez
  • Important targets (Crystal ball favorite): OLB Caleb Kelly (Oklahoma), WR Theo Howard (USC), ATH Jack Jones (USC), Devin Asiasi (USC)

Plus a couple dark horses.

Auburn

  • Current ranking: No. 20, 188 points
  • Current blue chip percentage: 42
  • Five-star commits: None
  • Important targets (Crystal ball favorite): DT Rashan Gary (Michigan), DT Derrick Brown (Georgia), WR Nate Craig-Myers (FSU), OLB Ben Davis (Alabama), DL Marlon Davidson (Auburn), DT Shavar Manuel (FSU), OT Landon Dickerson (Virginia Tech), DE Antonneous Clayton (Auburn), RB Elijah Holyfield (Auburn)

Ole Miss

  • Current ranking: No. 7, 243 points
  • Current blue chip percentage: 42
  • Five-star commits: QB Shea Patterson
  • Important targets (Crystal ball favorite): DT Rashan Gary (Michigan), DE Jeffery Simmons (Ole Miss), WR A.J. Brown (Mississippi State), WR Drake Davis (Ole Miss), OT Greg Little (Alabama), OT Willie Allen (LSU), S Deontay Anderson (Ole Miss)