Now that I've written previews about each of FBS' 128 teams, and now that I've broken down each conference's balance of power, it's time for the ultimate task of the preseason: breaking down FBS' balance of power.
Along the way, I created power rankings for each conference. You can see the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC, as well as the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt. You can also find my individual team previews in each of those sets.
Below, I've ranked all 128 FBS teams. As with each of the conference rankings, this isn't a stat projection. It's my own opinion. This was like a series of ladder matches: whom would I pick if these two teams played on a neutral field? I adhered mostly to the conference-specific power rankings I had already crafted, though in rare cases, I did some rearranging.
I am including projected S&P+ rankings as well, just so you can get a feel for where my own thoughts differ from my numbers.
1. Alabama (projected S&P+ rank: 1)
2. Clemson (3)
3. Florida State (5)
4. LSU (2)
5. Michigan (6)
6. Stanford (16)
7. Oklahoma (4)
8. Notre Dame (11)
In the SEC power rankings, I called this whole thing a trust exercise. All of these teams have flaws and questions they need to answer, but I trust them far more than everybody else.
The biggest risks here, compared to the numbers, are Notre Dame and Stanford.
The Irish have two primary questions: Can they figure out a peaceful, happy quarterback arrangement, and can they avoid too many huge breakdowns on defense? If the answer is yes to both, they are a top-five team.
Stanford has a new quarterback and continued issues with defensive line depth. But the Cardinal have Christian McCaffrey, and McCaffrey’s got some nice complementary pieces.
9. Ole Miss (7)
10. Michigan State (22)
11. Ohio State (14)
12. Tennessee (9)
13. TCU (31)
14. Oregon (18)
15. Washington (10)
Each has one giant question to answer, be it a rebuilt offensive line (Ole Miss), a rebuilt defensive line (Michigan State), youth (Ohio State), clammy-palmed play-calling and close-game execution (Tennessee), a rebuilt skill corps (TCU), a rejiggered defense (Oregon), or a battle with expectation (Washington).
Some will answer these questions, and at least a couple very much will not. But the ceilings are obvious.
16. Georgia (15)
17. USC (8)
18. UCLA (12)
19. Louisville (20)
20. Arkansas (17)
21. Houston (53)
22. Oklahoma State (23)
23. Mississippi State (21)
24. Baylor (13)
25. Texas A&M (25)
26. Florida (19)
Now we get into bigger questions and deeper flaws.
Compared to S&P+, I’m pretty low on USC and super high on Houston, but ... again, trust. USC’s got plenty to prove, and while Houston was pretty lucky, the Cougars also have a great quarterback and great coach. That will lead you through a lot of tough roads.
27. Penn State (28)
28. Pittsburgh (29)
29. North Carolina (27)
30. Nebraska (26)
31. Wisconsin (37)
32. Miami (30)
33. Minnesota (42)
34. Iowa (38)
35. Virginia Tech (32)
36. Auburn (24)
37. Utah (39)
38. Boise State (36)
39. BYU (35)
40. Texas (34)
41. Northwestern (46)
I structured these rankings as a series of ladder matches and didn’t know the full rankings until the end of the process ... but I still adhered strangely closely to the numbers in this tier.
42. Georgia Tech (54)
43. San Diego State (55)
44. Washington State (48)
45. West Virginia (33)
46. Arizona State (57)
47. Missouri (47)
48. South Florida (41)
49. Texas Tech (43)
50. NC State (40)
51. Western Kentucky (45)
52. Arizona (64)
53. Indiana (56)
54. California (49)
55. Syracuse (44)
56. Vanderbilt (69)
57. Western Michigan (65)
58. Duke (51)
59. Appalachian State (59)
60. Toledo (58)
61. Temple (61)
62. Maryland (62)
63. Kansas State (67)
64. Georgia Southern (52)
65. Kentucky (83)
66. Iowa State (71)
Compared to the numbers, I’m pretty low on WVU, but defensive injuries are adding up, and I worry about offensive inefficiency. Meanwhile, these teams are extremely bunched together, and there isn’t that much separation. I wouldn’t be particularly surprised if even Iowa State or Kentucky ended up playing at a top-40 level.
67. Memphis (77)
68. Virginia (68)
69. Boston College (50)
70. Southern Miss (72)
71. Marshall (75)
72. Rutgers (87)
73. Navy (66)
74. Cincinnati (70)
75. Air Force (80)
76. Colorado (82)
77. Northern Illinois (79)
78. Bowling Green (60)
79. Arkansas State (89)
80. Illinois (76)
81. Connecticut (81)
82. Louisiana Tech (84)
83. South Carolina (63)
84. Central Michigan (85)
85. Utah State (73)
86. East Carolina (78)
87. Colorado State (96)
88. Ohio (95)
89. Tulsa (93)
90. Wake Forest (74)
91. Akron (97)
92. Central Florida (99)
93. New Mexico (102)
94. Nevada (91)
95. San Jose State (92)
96. Middle Tennessee (90)
The mid-majors in this bunch should expect to bowl; the random power-conference squads probably won’t have that luxury.
97. Troy (103)
98. Georgia State (105)
99. Florida Atlantic (100)
100. SMU (98)
101. Purdue (88)
102. Fresno State (94)
103. Kent State (104)
104. UNLV (114)
105. Oregon State (86)
106. Florida International (113)
107. UL-Lafayette (106)
108. Buffalo (109)
109. Rice (119)
110. Ball State (101)
111. Idaho (108)
112. Old Dominion (111)
113. Tulane (122)
114. Miami (Ohio) (107)
115. South Alabama (115)
Tier 7 is a mid-major crossroads for the most part. Some are rising from deep depths, and some are replacing them in those depths.
116. Army (124)
117. UTEP (126)
118. UTSA (116)
119. Wyoming (110)
120. New Mexico State (117)
121. Kansas (112)
122. Massachusetts (127)
123. North Texas (128)
124. Texas State (120)
125. Charlotte (123)
126. UL-Monroe (125)
127. Hawaii (118)
128. Eastern Michigan (121)
One will be an out-of-nowhere surprise. But if I had a clue which one, I wouldn’t be putting it here.