New York Yankees by Marc Normandin

The Yankees might be the best fourth-place team in these predictions. They could hit a million-billion home runs and the pitching could stay healthy. The last time they finished under .500 was the year they drafted Derek Jeter, so underestimate them at your own peril/annoyance. I picked them to finish first last year, and if I had any courage, I’d pick them to finish first this year.

But where you might describe their rotation as Tanaka/Sabathia/Pineda/Severino/Green, I would describe it as Injury risk/erratic 36-year-old/erratic injury risk/erratic youngster/unproven sophomore. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, but there’s almost no chance all five make it intact through the All-Star break, and the Yankees had just two pitching prospects in their top 20 who pitched above Class-A last year. There is upside throughout the rotation, but it’s a bad combination of a team that will likely need depth and a farm system that will be a year away from providing it.

That would all be fine if they had a lineup that was unambiguously dominant, but it’s folly to expect Gary Sanchez to slug .650 again. Aaron Judge is a man-obelisk, but there are no guarantees this is the year he hits. Chase Headley, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury were old and below-average at the plate last year, and I regret to inform you that they are even older today. The Yankees might slug their way out of their the AL East, or their starting pitchers might stay healthy and exceed expectations.

I just don’t see why you would expect it though. Could happen. Wouldn’t be the most surprising thing to happen, not even close. I just like the what-ifs above them a little bit more.