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Boston Red Sox

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Projected WARMarket Value

27.6 248


15.8 142


4.1 37


Projected WAR by grouping is from Fangraphs’ depth charts.
Historically each win is worth ~$9 million on the free agent market

Projected Team

  • Mookie Betts, RF
  • Andrew Benintendi, LF
  • Hanley Ramirez, 1B
  • J.D. Martinez, DH
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS
  • Rafael Devers, 3B
  • Eduardo Nuñez, 2B
  • Christian Vazquez, C
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., CF
  • Chris Sale, LHP
  • David Price, LHP
  • Rick Porcello, RHP
  • Steven Wright, RHP
  • Brian Johnson, LHP
  • Alex Cora

Health Check

“When you talk about Boston’s contention cycle and how long this team is likely to stick around, the most common response you’ll hear will be about the two-year window they are currently in. It’s a bit of an oversimplification of the situation, to be sure, but it’s a declaration that at least makes some sense. The biggest face of this so-called window is Chris Sale, the team’s ace and one of the very best pitchers in baseball. Sale electrified the city in 2017 and has been nothing short of elite for essentially his entire career. The lefty is under contract on a wildly below-market deal through 2019, so if the team is only going to have this built-in advantage for two more years.

It’s not just Sale, though, as the homegrown talent will get more and more expensive with each passing year, and they also face the possibility of losing key components of the roster like Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz, David Price, J.D. Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, and Xander Bogaerts over the next couple of offseasons. So, this loaded roster that has won two straight division titles and just added one of the five-to-ten best hitters in baseball in Martinez could only be together in its current form for a couple of years. The window to win with this roster that has had so much success in recent years is a small, two-year window.

All of that being said, that two-year window does not mean the same thing for the Red Sox as it would for other teams around the league.”

—Over the Monster

Key Player

The Red Sox have a few legitimate superstars on their team who, on any given day, can be the best player on the field. Craig Kimbrel strikes out literally half the batters he faces on a consistent basis. Chris Sale makes the best hitters in baseball look like, well, me. If I were to pick one player to watch for the rest of my life, though, it’d be Mookie Betts. The Red Sox outfielder is everything you want in a position player, mostly because he does literally everything well. At the plate, he has some of the best plate discipline in the league and hardly ever strikes out. When he puts the ball in play, he almost always does it with authority thanks to some of the most absurdly fast hands in the entire league. Mookie is not a large human being, but he constantly overpowers some of the best pitchers in baseball. It’s legitimately crazy.

Then, there’s the defense. Betts plays in the corner, but he could play center field for almost any team in baseball and occupies arguably the most difficult right field in all of baseball. Betts is elite with the glove, both in terms of the ground he can cover and incredible arm strength. Despite all of that, the most electrifying part of the Mookie Betts experience comes on the bases. He’s a great athlete, but he really excels with his intelligence. He’s scored from second base on infield singles three times in his career, while also going first to third on an infield single to third base that didn’t even include a throw. He’s a wizard. Above all else, Betts carries himself with a quiet confidence that manifests itself with memes and the Carlton. How can you not love that?

—Matthew Collins, Over the Monster

Best Case

Remember last summer when the Red Sox lineup was full of disappointment and David Price was injured and 2016’s AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello was just average and then they won the AL East anyway? Imagine if David Price is healthy and David Price-ian, and Porcello can throw 200 innings again while also being good, and the addition of J.D. Martinez helps add necessary thump to the lineup that also makes life easier and more productive for Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez? Why, the Red Sox might even win the AL East!

Worst Case

Unlike in 2017, if injuries and a lack of offense despite the existence of players who should do better get in the way, the Red Sox could be in trouble thanks to an upgraded Yankees’ team. And that would especially sting in 2018, since a number of key players like Drew Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel are due to be free agents after the season, and the whole point of bringing in J.D. Martinez right now was to go big on what is potentially the last year this specific core is together. The Red Sox also hired a new manager, Alex Cora, to replace John Farrell, and while that should be an antidote for some of what ailed the club last summer, well, you know how manager hirings can go.