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New York Mets

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Projected WARMarket Value

17.4 157


17.3 156


3.8 34


Projected WAR by grouping is from Fangraphs’ depth charts.
Historically each win is worth ~$9 million on the free agent market

Projected Team

  • Brandon Nimmo, CF
  • Yoenis Cespedes, LF
  • Jay Bruce, RF
  • Todd Frazier, 3B
  • Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
  • Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C
  • Amed Rosario, SS
  • Noah Syndergaard, RHP
  • Jacob deGrom, RHP
  • Steven Matz, LHP
  • Matt Harvey, RHP
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP
  • Mickey Callaway

Health Check

“With limited help coming from the development pipeline, the burden of bouncing back falls almost entirely on the major league roster. There, we find many of the same names that led the Mets to the playoffs in 2015. The pitching core of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Jeurys Familia are still on the roster, as are outfielders Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes. Two years is a long time in baseball, though, and a lot has changed with this group.

Harvey may never be the same after undergoing surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in 2016, which is often a death sentence for aces. Familia missed much of 2017 while recovering from blood clots in his right shoulder. Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz have struggled to stay on the field and have been underwhelming when they’ve made it. Yoenis Cespedes has dealt with repeated lower body injuries, and Michael Conforto will miss the first month of the season after suffering a freak shoulder injury on a swing at the end of 2017. Noah Syndergaard’s injury doesn’t raise the same level concerns as the others mentioned here, but he did miss the majority of 2017 after tearing his lat.

The Mets also have two former top prospects set to see major playing time in 2018 in Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith. Unfortunately, both struggled mightily in their debut, with Rosario looking uncomfortably close to the Alcides Escobar comp that was always thrown on him as a floor and Smith struggling in just about every aspect of the game. It’s not fair to discount their ability entirely after a rough debut — Mike Trout, of course, was terrible in his first taste of the majors — but relying on either to boost the current core back to contention isn’t viable.”

—Amazin Avenue

Key Player

There are a few players on the Mets roster who, when right, fit the description of a “must-watch” player. Noah Syndergaard’s 100 mph fastballs, 95 mph sliders, and 92 mph changeups are video game pitches that are always worth the price of admission. Jacob deGrom and Michael Conforto are also fun players to watch who also happen to be really easy to root for. But there’s nobody on the Mets roster, for me, who is more “must-watch” than a healthy Yoenis Cespedes.

You’ve certainly seen the tape measure home runs, the glorious bat flips, and the ridiculous throwing arm. But beyond all of that, it’s the intricacies of the Cespedes experience that make it most special for me. It’s the wild hacks at the plate, the “52” chain dangling from his neck as he runs, and the underhand softball-style throws to the infield after he makes a catch that add to the fun. Yoenis Cespedes is a larger than life personality who, when on the field, puts on a nightly show that I feel blessed to get to watch.

—Steve Schreiber, Amazin Avenue

Best Case

The Mets’ active winter — re-signing Jay Bruce, bringing in Todd Frazier, and adding rotation depth like Jason Vargas — turns out to be brilliant. They were supposed to be a competitive team in 2017, albeit one that needed many things to go right for them: that team is still here, as the rotation still includes Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz, and depth like Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo. In a weak division like the NL East, there is more than enough here to help launch the Mets into the middle of the NL wild card chase, even without presenting a much different roster than the one that lost 92 games a year ago.

Worst Case

This is the Mets we’re talking about, so none of the optimism you just read is going to matter, maybe not even by the time you read this. Sure, the rotation is still potentially loaded, but we’re far enough into the careers of Matt Harvey and Steven Matz to know they are anything but a guaranteed positive at this point. There was a chance to do what the Giants did and just keep adding players and shifting payroll to try to put 2017 behind them and reinvigorate a talented core in an offseason where no team ever truly lacked for viable upgrade options, but the Mets chose Adrian Gonzalez and Jason Vargas instead.

Hold up, Vargas is hurt already? Well... that tracks.