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Philadelphia Phillies

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Projected WARMarket Value

15.9 143


13.3 120


3.1 28


Projected WAR by grouping is from Fangraphs’ depth charts.
Historically each win is worth ~$9 million on the free agent market

Projected Team

  • Cesar Hernandez, 2B
  • Carlos Santana, 1B
  • Odubel Herrera, CF
  • Rhys Hoskins, LF
  • Nick Williams, RF
  • Maikel Franco, 3B
  • Jorge Alfaro, C
  • J.P. Crawford, SS
  • Aaron Nola, RHP
  • Jake Arrieta, RHP
  • Vince Velasquez, RHP
  • Nick Pivetta, RHP
  • Ben Lively, RHP
  • Gabe Kapler

Health Check

“Looking beyond 2018, the possibilities are endless. The Phillies have deep resources in a number of areas. The depth in the minor leagues — and in the majors! — gives them the ability to make a significant trade without selling out their present or future. John Middleton’s continuing quest to bring a championship back to Philadelphia has entered the “throw money at it” stage, and he’s ready for it.

Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are available next year, and Clayton Kershaw has an opt-out. Charlie Blackmon, Drew Pomeranz, and Josh Donaldson will be free agents as well. The time has come to spend, and Middleton has deep pockets. The luxury tax is stupid, but it’s no laughing matter. Middleton has said several times that there’s no budget for success, and I suspect that he’ll have the opportunity to prove that before this run is over.

With their depth and financial resources, the Phillies are one of the most powerful teams in baseball. The stars are aligning; the Phillies have a chance to finish building their team exactly the way they want to. After that, it’s up to them. What they’ll do with that power, and how they’ll actually play on the field, remains to be seen. But their patience is starting to pay off. Hopefully, it’s only up from here.”

— The Good Phight

Key Player

Remember at the end of the 2017 season, there was this guy almost no one had heard of hitting more home runs than any rookie had ever hit? That guy was Rhys Hoskins. He stands alone in the record books as the fastest man to ever hit... well, pick a number of home runs, and that record is probably his. The Phillies were already on the upswing by then, but Hoskins made those meaningless, late-season games exciting to watch.

There’s no guarantee that Hoskins will do the same thing in 2018, but it’s going to be fun watching him try. He’s got a lot of patience and a well-trained batter’s eye. He’s not afraid to get into deep counts, and he knows when he should be aggressive. He’s got a new, nearly permanent position (left field, since Carlos Santana is at first base now), and a new manager. It’s a whole new world for the Phillies, and Rhys Hoskins is leading the charge.

— Liz Roscher, The Good Phight

Best Case

The Phillies decided the time was now to start adding to their rebuilding team, and it just might put them into the NL wild card race. Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta are the new faces, meant to anchor the lineup and rotation, respectively. There are full seasons of newer faces like Rhys Hoskins and J.P. Crawford to look forward to. If Vince Velasquez can stay healthy and add to the promise he showed in 2016, there just might be a rotation here, and the Phillies are still in a position to add in-season to a payroll that still hasn’t cracked $100 million. It might still seem early, but it seemed even earlier for the Twins a year ago than it does for these Phillies.

Worst Case

All this youthful promise can go nowhere in a hurry, as we’ve already seen happen with enough Phillies players over the last few years. If Rhys Hoskins isn’t the big bopper the Phils need, J.P. Crawford struggles like he did in his brief MLB exposure, Maikel Franco keeps floundering, and Odubel Herrera is just average again, the rotation isn’t going to be able to prop up the lineup. Not yet, anyway. The good news for the Phils, even in a realistic worst-case situation in 2018, is that there are more kids and more promise to come, and winning in 2018 is more a possibility than a mandate. Mostly, they need to avoid completely falling on their face.