St. Louis Cardinals

Health Check

“The Cardinals have found success with unwanted parts from other teams. Jedd Gyorko, acquired from the San Diego Padres following the 2015 season, has hit 50 home runs in his two seasons in St. Louis and has been regarded favorably as a defensive third baseman. Jose Martinez, a minor league lifer who was acquired in 2016, had a 134 OPS+ in 307 MLB plate appearances in 2017 and, if Statcast’s xwOBA data is to be believed, he might actually be better than the raw numbers indicate.

And yet the Cardinals find themselves, for the third consecutive season, as somewhat distant underdogs to the Chicago Cubs for the NL Central crown. The Milwaukee Brewers, who finished ahead of the Cardinals in 2017, have added Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain to the fold and have no intention of regressing back to the lower tier of the division.

The problem isn’t that the Cardinals stopped doing the Cardinals Devil Magic thing that made them such a universally beloved darling of Baseball Twitter in the early 2010s — it’s that they seemingly only do that. A look through the Cardinals roster reveals a good team, a team that is probably, even with the rise of the Cubs, one of the 10 or so most likely teams to win a division title in 2018, but a team that lacks the kind of high-end superstars that a team does not necessarily need to win a World Series, but make the quest so much easier to fulfill.”

—Viva El Birdos

Key Player

Tommy Pham entered spring training in 2017 with expectations no higher than “decent fourth outfielder” and he finished Spring Training with a starting job ... with the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds. He played well in Memphis and following injuries to starters, Pham was promoted to St. Louis, where he took off and never looked back. With a .306 batting average, .411 on-base percentage, and .520 slugging percentage, Pham’s 144 OPS+ was the highest of any qualified St. Louis Cardinals player since 2011. Additionally, he led the team in stolen bases and played excellent defense, primarily in left field. This garnered Pham 11th place in NL MVP voting, the highest ranking of any Cardinal.

Pham, who will be 30 by Opening Day of 2018, has battled injuries throughout much of his career, but the Cardinals are counting on him to maintain a high level of performance. The team traded 2017 starting outfielders Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty to accommodate Pham, and with incumbent center fielder Dexter Fowler moving to right field, Pham will move to center, placing an even higher priority on his defensive ability. While Pham maintaining 2017 performance is probably an unfair expectation, the Cardinals are depending upon the veteran to truly be a late bloomer rather than a one-year wonder. He has shown success in the minors and abbreviated MLB time prior to 2017, and the Cardinals are banking on this being a sign that he can maintain star-level performance.

Pham, who will be 30 by Opening Day of 2018, has battled injuries throughout much of his career, but the Cardinals are counting on him to maintain a high level of performance. The team traded 2017 starting outfielders Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty to accommodate Pham, and with incumbent center fielder Dexter Fowler moving to right field, Pham will move to center, placing an even higher priority on his defensive ability. While Pham maintaining 2017 performance is probably an unfair expectation, the Cardinals are depending upon the veteran to truly be a late bloomer rather than a one-year wonder. He has shown success in the minors and abbreviated MLB time prior to 2017, and the Cardinals are banking on this being a sign that he can maintain star-level performance.

Best Case

The Cardinals didn’t add much to their roster heading into 2018, but maybe they didn’t have to: Bringing Marcell Ozuna into the fold allows the Cardinals to improve their offense and their defense with one move, thanks to the presence of the star outfielder. Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter, and Ozuna is a serious start to a lineup, and that’s not all it has to offer, either. The rotation, too, is young and talented, and while Adam Wainwright might be neither of those things anymore, the Cards have room to improve on that in-season. They’re a threat to the Cubs in the NL Central and are sure to be in the wild card race, too.

Worst Case

The Cardinals are relying heavily on a number of players who have one year of success in the majors, like Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong. Lance Lynn and Mike Leake, two known quantities, are gone, replaced by younger starters with less of a resume. Sure, it’s the Cardinals, so Pham is probably a star, DeJong more than worthy of every dollar in his extension, and the hurlers like Luke Weaver replacing the vets are probably all going to thrive. At the same time, though, St. Louis is betting on all of that to go their way, and in a crowded NL Central and wild card picture, it’s not a bet even the Cards are guaranteed to win.