The Colts will win because
They are a matchup problem for the Chiefs, but it all comes down to how healthy cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Greg Toler are. Both are dealing with groin injuries. Davis, in particular, is key. In their last meeting with the Chiefs in Week 16, the Colts defensive backs did a good job smothering K.C.’s wideouts. Alex Smith played a terrible game (153 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT) and the Chiefs offense was shut down throughout much of the afternoon. Offensively, the Colts were able to neutralize the Chiefs' pass rush by spreading them out, using three-receiver sets. Indy ran from these formations, including Donald Brown’s 51-yard TD run in the third quarter that broke the game open.