It's been 16 years since Brandi Chastain scored the World Cup-winning penalty against China, whipped her shirt off and thrust women's soccer into mainstream America's consciousness. The United States women have won three Olympic gold medals since, but have failed to lift the World Cup in their last three attempts. If they fail again, some of the best players of the last two decades -- like Abby Wambach and Shannon Boxx -- will retire without winning the biggest prize in their sport.

This U.S. squad is very good, but doesn't look like a heavy favorite. Alex Morgan and Sydney Leroux could come to life when the games matter, but they've been in average form over the last year and a half. Coach Jill Ellis has struggled to figure out her best team, with the question of whether it includes Wambach still going unanswered.

During recent camps, the USWNT has started slow and figured themselves out as their tournament has gone on. They drew France in a friendly before the Algarve Cup, then drew Iceland in the group stage of that tournament but beat France convincingly in the final. They played three halves of very bad soccer against worse competition to start World Cup qualifying, but thrashed Mexico in the semifinal that clinched automatic qualification, then laid a 6-0 beating on a decent Costa Rica team in the final. They don't exactly have that same luxury here.

Ellis will be hoping that her team's three pre-World Cup friendlies let them work out all the kinks before the real games start. The tournament's new format gives the USWNT a safety net, but if they don't win their group, their knockout stage draw gets ugly.

A limited Abby Wambach is still incredibly useful

To have watched the 2011 Women's World Cup is to remember that moment. The "Wambach has saved the USA's life in this World Cup" call. That sound. The ball from Wambach's head, past the outstretched fingers of Andréia, hitting the back of the net. An inevitable win in an inevitable run, a team that had looked downright terrible for nearly a year, now propelling itself forward in some kind of unstoppable motion into the semi and then final of a tournament they had hardly any business even being a part of six months prior.

And if that was where Wambach's story had ended, it would have been enough. That the U.S. hadn't actually won anything was irrelevant, both to the legacy of Wambach and the country's determination to treat them like they had because... America? America! There were talk show appearances, kicking soccer balls at taxis with Hope Solo on Letterman, shout outs from Jon Stewart and Rachel Maddow.

But here we are, four years later, and so is Wambach. She's still plugging along, looking for that so-far elusive World Cup trophy, the one thing missing from a career that stands up pretty darn well even without it. Wambach may have more goals than anyone else ever, may be still adding to that total, but she's still, as we all do eventually, getting old.

She's hardly the dominant player she once was, so her selection to this year's team is one among many that has at times felt more sentimental-Hollywood-script-old-timer's-last-chance than tactically smart. But whether it's all part of Ellis' super-long game to trick us all into thinking the U.S. will crash and burn in the big show, only to capture hearts and minds the way they did four years ago, or an actual terrible idea, Wambach's presence isn't entirely wrong.

In Canada, Wambach -- who turns 35 four days before the tournament kicks off -- won't be the focal point of the team like she was in Germany. Her role has changed. Wambach is still one of the most dominant players in the air, still one of the best goal scorers the game has ever seen. She'll just be doing it on a more limited basis, with one-time super-subs like Morgan, Leroux and Christen Press -- all combinations of youth and speed -- now the go-tos.

But here's the thing: the U.S. isn't great right now. Not tactically, not technically. All the Morgan stoppage time miracles and spectacular Solo saves in the world won't change that. It's long been more outlast than outplay lately, and that outlasting isn't always about the physical, though they sure are proud of that. It's the mental, too. It's the belief in just needing one more chance and letting everyone know it, or counting loud enough to convince a ref to make a call no ref would or probably should ever make in a big game.

It's being Abby Wambach, pulling defenders this way and that, imposing, annoying, falling over, shouting, counting, believing. And when it comes to that stuff, whether it's from the bench or on the field, sub or starter, sentimental inmates-running-the-asylum pick or smart tactical one, there's still no one better at it than her.

The defensive midfielder problem

Fans have been crying out for Ellis to find a new defensive midfielder since Boxx was dropped from the team, and she hasn't found one. Instead, she's converted Lauren Holiday -- arguably the best advanced playmaker in the world -- into a holder, while a 37-year-old Boxx is back as a bench option.

Holiday's conversion serves to annoy fans in two ways. First, one of the team's best players is being forced to play out of position. Two, there's still no defensive midfielder, since Holiday isn't much of a tackler, and is so good going forward that she's going to dribble past people occasionally. Sometimes Carli Lloyd stays back to cover her and sometimes the U.S. is just left with no midfield at all.

This isn't really a problem against CONCACAF opposition, and the U.S. forwards are good enough that they can overwhelm an opponent to the point where they can't take advantage of the fact that they're playing with a broken midfield. But sometimes, like in their Feb. 8 friendly against France, the USWNT can't keep a hold of the ball or win it back when they lose it, and as a result, get passed off the park and struggle to create chances.

So when the Americans take on Sweden in their second game, don't be stunned if Caroline Seger gets more touches than anyone else on the pitch and dominates the match. It won't be Holiday's fault if it happens; getting mad at Holiday for playing defensive midfielder poorly is akin to being annoyed with Mozart for composing a crappy beat on an 808. Why would you expect them to know what to do, and furthermore, why are you even asking them to try?

Depth doesn't make up for Alex Morgan if she isn't healthy

The United States is one of the front runners in this tournament, but there are still some lingering questions about the roster. Morgan has been nursing an injury for months now and the coaching staff has conservatively doled out field time to her in a delicate balancing act between getting her real touches on the ball and avoiding further injury.

Best-case scenario, all this caution pays off and Morgan is match fit by the time the tournament starts. Worst-case scenario, she's not totally healthy until knockout rounds or later.

In a worst-case scenario, there are theoretically plenty of forwards to step in and run in front. Between Wambach, Leroux, Press and Amy Rodriguez , the U.S. have a front line any team would love to have even without Morgan. Plus, the last time Morgan scored against really tough opposition was versus France in June 2014, so clearly other team members have been picking up the slack. Since 2014, when Morgan doesn't play, the U.S. averages 3.1 goals per game. When Morgan does play? Basically the same, 3.08 goals per game.

That sounds great on paper, but when Morgan doesn't play, who are the USWNT scoring against? Second-tier teams, mostly. She played in both recent games against France -- a loss and a win -- but probably wasn't 100 percent yet, and didn't score. She didn't play in either game against Brazil, a draw and a loss. But Morgan played in games against solid Switzerland and England sides and scored in wins. When Morgan is healthy and playing, the U.S. is better.

In 2012, Morgan posted a ridiculous 28 goals and 21 assists over the course of the calendar year. When she's fit, she does stuff like that. When she's not fit, the U.S. loses a chunk of speed and killer finishing.

Morgan is in the squad, so clearly the coaching staff expects her to play at some point. Hopefully she'll be available and healthy for every game. Does the United States need her to win? It's inconclusive. But will having Alex Morgan ready to play make her team better? Definitely.

Projected lineup (4-4-2)

GK Hope Solo, LB Meghan Klingenberg, CB Becky Sauerbrunn, CB Julie Johnston, RB Ali Krieger, LM Megan Rapinoe, CM Lauren Holiday, CM Carli Lloyd, RM Christen Press, ST Abby Wambach, ST Sydney Leroux

Expect Press to get a game or two up top, and for the forward and wing spots to rotate constantly through the first four games or so.

Their case for winning

The United States has a ton of different kinds of forwards, allowing Ellis to mix and match as necessary depending on opponent. The U.S. midfield might have their problems, but on their good days, they're eminently capable of breaking up attacks, and they certainly have tons of attacking quality. Sauerbrunn and Johnston are coming together nicely, and look like one of the best central defense partnerships in the tournament. And their goalkeeper, Solo, should keep them in games where they're outplayed. This team doesn't have any big deficiencies, and they have the deepest squad in the tournament. They just need to figure out how to put the best possible starting XI together.

Perpetual also-ran Canada has everything to prove and everything to lose this year. They were disastrous at the 2011 World Cup, but rebounded spectacularly at the 2012 Olympics, just barely falling to the United States in a dramatic semifinal before going on to win the bronze medal. This year, as hosts, they're expected to contend for the World Cup. The team and their coach, John Herdman, have spoken often about the long, painful rebuilding process and their awareness of the expectations their country has for them in 2015.

Herdman has been experimenting all over the field, but a few things seem certain. Desiree Scott and Sophie Schmidt will carry the midfield, Erin McLeod has taken the starting goalkeeper spot, Kadeisha Buchanan will make life rough for forwards, and superstar Christine Sinclair will start somewhere.

Diana Matheson may not play in the group stage at all as she continues to rehab her ACL as well as deal with a broken foot she picked up while rehabbing her ACL, but 17-year-old Jessie Fleming seems to be coming along nicely as an attacking midfielder. Fleming could be almost as vital to Canada as Matheson is projected to be should Canada make it to knockout rounds; she's been hailed as a bit of a wunderkind by Herdman, who said that she once asked such intelligent questions in training he didn't have immediate answers for her.

The other big question is one Canada has been trying to answer for years, since well before Herdman came onto the scene: who will be Sinclair's strike partner? It was Melissa Tancredi for a long time, but with her recent absence to finish her chiropractic degree, she hasn't quite come back up to competitive match speed. Herdman also tried dropping Sinclair deeper into the attack as the tip of a diamond midfield to let her create for a pair of forwards, but it didn't work as expected.

Despite the question marks, this is a quality Canada side. They're not the best squad in the tournament, but they're good enough to win it with a couple of lucky breaks and a passionate crowd behind them.

The lingering Diana Matheson question

Imagine being so critical to your team's success that even though the coaching staff knows with certainty you won't be ready in time for the opening match, you get added to the squad anyway. That's the world Matheson lives in.

She's been the linchpin of the Canadian midfield for years. Canada has done all right without her since the ACL tear, notching a series of wins and ties in the aftermath -- until they hit England and France, losing 1-0 both times. Canada desperately needs connectivity in midfield, especially as a way to pick out Sinclair, and so far Herdman has been relying on a combination of Schmidt and Fleming to create it. Fleming's play is mature beyond her years, but this is her first World Cup, and a quick-thinking, veteran presence like Matheson could be the difference between forcing the defense to scramble for cover and letting them get set on counters. Her work rate is astounding -- just watch any footage of her legs churning while she keeps up with much bigger players -- and when paired with Scott, they create a midfield that can disrupt any attacking buildup and then switch to a counter, or slow the tempo until there's more support around the box.

Herdman is allowed to nix a player and bring in an alternate up to 24 hours before the tournament, and Matheson has said she would step aside if she wasn't ready at that time. But realistically, who would Canada call up to replace her? Herdman has begun the arduous process of kickstarting Canada's youth development again after it was allowed to lie fallow, but their pool of attacking midfielders with great vision remains thin.

Perhaps Herdman could save Matheson for the knockout rounds. After all, if Canada isn't planning to make it out of group in a World Cup on home soil, then something is seriously wrong. But if she still isn't ready then, a full two weeks after the kickoff of the opening game ... actually, Matheson would probably crawl over shattered maple syrup bottles in order to bring home a World Cup for Canada, so she might think it's worth it to play through a certain amount of pain. The question is if a hobbled Matheson is worth calling in ahead of a less talented, but fitter player.

Can Christine Sinclair bring her best?

Sinclair is, undoubtedly, the greatest Canadian player in history. In 2011 and 2012, she might have been the top player on the planet. But since then, Sinclair has just been very good.

That's not to disparage her. If we chose sides for a pickup game right now, Sinclair would go pretty high. It's just that her 2013, 2014 and 2015 haven't been quite as sensational. She's gone from the best player on the planet to something a bit less than that, and it's not clear if Canada can win a World Cup without their best player turning in downright dominant performances -- especially with Matheson hurt and Tancredi out of form.

While she didn't score a lot of goals for the Portland Thorns last year, the attention she attracted allowed Allie Long and Jessica McDonald to combine for 20. She was also absurdly unlucky, scoring just seven goals from 77 total shots and 40 on target -- both league highs. By no stretch of the imagination did Sinclair have a bad, or even mediocre season.

Sinclair has three goals in her last six CanWNT matches to go along with an unlucky seven-goal NWSL season that should have been more like 10 or 11. That isn't bad, but it will likely take a return to Sinclair's 2012 form for Canada to win the World Cup. Her numbers suggest that she's still capable of being one of the world's best strikers, but Canada will need more than she's produced recently.

Projected lineup (4-3-1-2)

GK Erin McLeod, LB Allysha Chapman, CB Kadeisha Buchanan, CB Lauren Sesselmann, RB Rhian Wilkinson, CM Sophie Schmidt, CM Desiree Scott, CM Ashley Lawrence, CAM Jessie Fleming, ST Christine Sinclair, ST Adriana Leon

Their case for winning

Of course every host nation wants to reach the podium, but even after Herdman revitalized a floundering program, it doesn't seem viable for Canada to make it all the way without a serious run of luck. They struggled against France and England earlier this year and scorelines against the likes of China and Mexico have been close. However, if the team peaks at the right time, and they manage to hit the right opponents in knockout rounds, and their fitness holds throughout the tournament, Canada could make the final. If you think that sounds like a lot of "ifs," you're absolutely right, but nothing is outside the realm of possibility (see: the Olympic bronze medal match between Canada and France, which featured a forcefield around the Canadian goal). Plus, they're going to have a pretty incredible home-field advantage in every match.

Once again, Germany enter the World Cup as favorites, and they'll be hoping this edition of the competition goes a lot better than the last one.

The Germans met expectations in their first three games at the 2011 World Cup, which they hosted, winning all three of those matches in the tournament's toughest group. Then they were stunned by Japan, the eventual champions, exiting the World Cup so early that they didn't even qualify for the Olympics.

They didn't panic -- coach Silvia Neid was retained, the team kept playing the same way, and these appear to have been sound decisions. They enter the World Cup with the No. 1 FIFA ranking, earned through a Euro 2013 triumph and some impressive friendly victories over the two years that followed.

Players from the last two UEFA Champions League winners, VfL Wolfsburg and FFC Frankfurt, make up the core of the side. This year's Champions League golden boot winner, Célia Šašić, and her club teammate, playmaking midfielder Dzsenifer Marozsán, are two of the world's top players, having also made the team of the tournament at the Euros. The central defense partnership of Annike Krahn and Babett Peter is one of the tournament's best. This is truly an outstanding team.

But Germany were also an outstanding team when they got knocked out by Japan in 2011, when they lost to Norway in the group stage of the Euros, and when they fell to France and Sweden in friendlies earlier this year. They might be the best team in the world, but they're also very beatable.

Chasing away the ghosts of 2011

Some 24 hours before the "Miracle in Dresden" from Megan Rapinoe's foot to Abby Wambach's head, came another one, with the same kind of extra time drama. It was 195 miles northwest of Dresden, in Wolfsburg, where things went wrong for Germany.

In 2011, Germany was not only the host and holder of the previous two World Cups, they were also the No. 2 ranked team in the world. It was a ranking that many felt was unjust, too low. The U.S. had held the top spot for so long -- and still did coming into that tournament despite a string of lackluster performances -- that it felt in some ways more like a courtesy than some legitimate gauge. Talent and the thought of what winning it all on home soil would do for the women's game were firmly on the side of Neid's team.

When the Germans drew Japan in the quarterfinals, no one panicked. Sure, they were the No. 3 team in the world, but Japan had also looked less than impressive in their group games, eking out a win against New Zealand and losing to England.

Germany and Japan played scoreless soccer until the 108th minute, when the Japanese found a breakthrough. Karina Maruyama, a 28-year-old forward who'd spent her entire career playing professionally in Japan save for a small handful of appearances in America, who had scored only 13 previous international goals, was their hero. Maruyama's goal, the one that made Japan believe anything was possible, was one that Germany couldn't recover from. High hopes plus skill plus destiny plus narrative equals shattered dreams.

Germany will head into Canada this summer a changed team. Only 11 players remain from the 2011 squad, and among the missing are many of the veteran players that were expected to help propel Germany to the title four years ago. Six players, including longtime captain and all-time leading scorer Birgit Prinz, midfielders Ariane Hingst and Kerstin Garefrekes, and forward Inka Grings have announced their retirements in the four years since the 2011 tournament.

But in those four years since falling short in Wolfsburg, Germany has lost only a handful of times and claimed that top spot in the FIFA rankings. So how did Germany recover from their devastating setback? They just kept playing.

Has Nadine Angerer declined too quickly to be a star at this World Cup?

Nadine Angerer went from 2013 FIFA Player of the Year to having a rocky time in net for the NWSL's Portland Thorns in 2014. Angerer was UEFA's player of the year in 2013 after two penalty kick saves in the final against Norway earned Germany the title. For Portland, her stats weren't terrible; they were middle of the pack, and the Thorns made it to the playoffs. But they weren't the stellar numbers you would expect someone freshly-named best goalkeeper in the world to put up.

Her 2015 season, abbreviated as it was before she left for national team duty, wasn't great either. Admittedly, this was with a weird and experimental 3-6-1 playing in front of her, leaving her more exposed than usual.

Her time in net for country has gone a bit more smoothly than for club in 2015 -- once again, perhaps having the stability of the German back line in front of her instead of a team learning a new back-three formation came into play there -- but they did go down 2-0 to France and 4-2 to Sweden.

Watching Angerer play, it's apparent she has slowed down somewhat. Her experience makes up for a lot of physical decline, but she's not as reliable in one-on-one situations. She might be a lifesaver on penalties, but against teams that can get behind defenses with pace and force her to come off her line, she might be in trouble.

The sun is setting on her career, and Angerer has declared that she will retire after this World Cup so that she can go out on her own terms instead of waiting until she's benched. Germany will have to stay organized in order to limit chances on Angerer to those from range. Either that, or Angerer is going to have start committing to her challenges when she rushes out.

Projected lineup (4-2-3-1)

GK Nadine Angerer, LB Jennifer Cramer, CB Babett Peter, CB Annike Krahn, RB Bianca Schmidt, CM Lena Goeßling, CM Dzsenifer Marozsán, LM Melanie Behringer, CAM Alexandra Popp, RM Simone Laudehr, ST Célia Šašić

Germany has a stable spine -- Angerer, Peter, Krahn, Marozsán, Popp and Šašić are nailed-on starters -- but the rest of the team has been a revolving door. Not finding the right compliments for their stars killed Germany the last time around.

Their case for winning

Germany destroyed their qualifying group, finishing with the best goal differential of any team in Europe. They're the reigning European champions, having won that tournament for the sixth consecutive time. There's no position where they don't have a world class player. They just thrashed Brazil and won their most recent game against Sweden. There are questions about their lineup, and some recent losses suggest they're not a truly heavy favorite, but they have a better case for being the favorite than anyone else.

France are a young power in women's soccer, but given their immense talent, it's still fair to call their last cycle disappointing. They finished fourth in the World Cup, fourth in the Olympics, then got upset in the quarterfinals of the European Championship. Top technical prowess and club success have yet to translate to international accolades for Les Bleus.

And while the club infrastructure in France is going to produce superb talent for the foreseeable future, this might be the last World Cup in which France's most recognizable crop of superstars will be in their primes. Laura Georges, Camile Abily, Louisa Necib and Gaëtane Thiney could play one more World Cup, but if they do, there's a good chance they'll be bit-part players. Right now, those players are in their late 20s or just turned 30. They're extremely experienced, but they haven't declined physically.

This might be the best chance France has to win a World Cup for a very long time, both because of the ages of their top players and the direction the women's game is heading. France is better at playing with the ball on the ground than anyone else, but the world is catching up. They have a distinct advantage right now, and they need to make the most of it.

If recent results are any indication, France are up for the challenge. They lost the Algarve Cup final to the United States, but after they'd beaten them in a friendly in dominating fashion a month earlier. They own recent shutout wins over Germany, Brazil and Canada, too. On current form, with nine wins in their last 10 games, France look like a very serious contender.

France fans have Lyon and PSG to thank

There is perhaps no team that's made a more drastic change in the past eight years than France. Prior to 2003, France had never even qualified for a Women's World Cup and when they finally did, Les Bleues couldn't even make it out of the group. Four years later, they'd watch the tournament from home, again failing to qualify. But four years after that, France, making just its second-ever World Cup appearance, finished fourth. They lost only once in the group stage, knocked off England on penalties in the quarterfinals, and gave the U.S. some serious trouble before eventually succumbing to two late goals in the semifinal. Under the tutelage of then-head coach Bruno Bini, France would lose 2-1 to Sweden in the third-place match, but even without a spot on the podium, Les Bleues had officially arrived.

While there are many factors in how France went from also-ran to perennial contender in less than a decade, a large part of the reason for France's rise goes directly to the club infrastructure within the country. Whereas the 2003 squad drew players from more than a dozen clubs in several different countries, by 2011, all 20 players on Bini's team were playing professionally within France's Division 1 Féminine. The 2011 squad drew from just four different teams; Juvisy, Olympique Lyon, Montpellier and Paris Saint-Germain.

Though Bini was replaced by Philippe Bergeroo in 2013, how the France squad is built has remained relatively unchanged. The 2015 World Cup team again consists entirely of players playing professionally within France, and again draws from relatively few clubs within Division 1 Féminine. Of the 23 players named to the team for this year's tournament, only five clubs are represented -- the four from 2011, plus Guingamp, who sent defender Griedge Mbock Bathy. An incredible 17 members of their squad play for either PSG or Lyon.

Can anyone play possession with them?

The women's game is still at a point in its development where one team can have a very significant advantage over others because of one quality that they possess. For years, the United States dominated through having the best athletes in the sport. Eventually, other countries started producing similar athletes who were better technically, and the playing field leveled off. And yet, as far as the women's game has come, there's no one who keeps the ball quite like France.

In Abily and Amandine Henry, they have a pair of players who are comfortable picking up the ball from defenders and carrying it forward. Louisa Necib is just as much a ball circulator as she is a winger or wide playmaker on the left. Their strikers are just as good at keeping the ball as they are at scoring. There isn't another team that has as many players who are good at retaining possession, and who prioritize it over direct attacking moves.

Ultimately, this can come back to bite France if they go behind and need to chase a game. They can get too concerned with walking the ball into the goal when they'd be better off playing a direct pass for someone to run on to. But if they go ahead? Well, good luck getting the ball off them.

Possession can be the best form of defense -- your opponent can't score if they don't have the ball -- and France can utilize that strategy better than anyone else. Their central defenders are top players, but their ability to play keep-away might have even more to do with their excellent defensive record.

Projected lineup (4-2-3-1)

GK Sarah Bouhaddi, LB Laure Boulleau, CB Wendie Renard, CB Laura Georges, RB Sabrina Delannoy, CM Camile Abily, CM Amandine Henry, LM Louisa Necib, CAM Eugénie Le Sommer, RM Élodie Thomis, ST Gaëtane Thiney

Their case for winning

All of the teams that could be called serious World Cup contenders -- the U.S., Germany, Brazil, Canada and Japan -- have been beaten by France in the last calendar year. Only one of them, the USWNT, has beaten France.

Form, talent, more skill than everyone else, experience without being old -- France have everything. There are no holes in their game or their squad. The only knock on them is that they haven't done it before, falling short when they've had one of the best squads on multiple occasions. This was also the knock on the Spanish men's team before Euro 2008.