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Indiana remains in the top position overall, anchoring the Midwest Region, as expected after the Hoosiers won at Michigan State on Tuesday. In the East, Miami anchors the region, while Duke fulfills that role for the South. Gonzaga jumps Florida and barely edges the Spartans for the No. 1 position out West. After today's bracket and rundown, I'll explain why I think the odds are questionable for the Selection Committee announcing the Bulldogs as a top seed when the actual field is revealed in three weeks and two days' time.
| (1) MIDWEST Indianapolis (Fri/Sun) | (2) EAST Washington (Thu/Sat) |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton (Fri/Sun) | Lexington (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 1 | Indiana (Big Ten) | 1 | Miami (ACC) |
| 16 | Charleston Southern or Southern | 16 | Niagara or Norfolk State |
| ↑ 8 | Saint Louis (A-10) | ↓ 8 | Cincinnati |
| ↓ 9 | Oklahoma | ↓ 9 | VCU |
| Austin (Fri/Sun) | San Jose (Thu/Sat) | ||
| ↑ 5 | Oregon (Pac-12) | 5 | Ohio State |
| ↓ 12 | St. Mary's | 12 | Arizona State or Villanova |
| 4 | Marquette | 4 | Kansas State |
| 13 | Louisiana Tech (WAC) | 13 | Bucknell (Patriot) |
| Kansas City (Fri/Sun) | Salt Lake City (Thu/Sat) | ||
| ↑ 6 | Missouri | ↑ 6 | Notre Dame |
| ↑ 11 | California | ↑ 11 | Virginia |
| 3 | Kansas (Big 12) | 3 | Arizona |
| 14 | Valparaiso (Horizon) | 14 | Davidson (Southern) |
| Philadelphia (Fri/Sun) | Auburn Hills (Thu/Sat) | ||
| ↓ 7 | Minnesota | 7 | UNLV |
| ↓ 10 | Wichita State (MVC) | ↓ 10 | Creighton |
| 2 | Syracuse (Big East) | 2 | Michigan |
| 15 | Stony Brook (AmEast) | 15 | Long Beach State (Big West) |
| (4) WEST Los Angeles (Thu/Sat) | (3) SOUTH Arlington (Fri/Sun) |
||
| Salt Lake City (Thu/Sat) | Philadelphia (Fri/Sun) | ||
| ↑ 1 | Gonzaga (WCC) | 1 | Duke |
| 16 | Robert Morris (NEC) | 16 | Northeastern (CAA) |
| 8 | San Diego State | 8 | Memphis (C-USA) |
| ↑ 9 | North Carolina | ↑ 9 | Colorado |
| Kansas City (Fri/Sun) | San Jose (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 5 | Oklahoma State | 5 | Butler |
| 12 | Belmont (OVC) | 12 | Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt) |
| 4 | Georgetown | 4 | Wisconsin |
| 13 | Akron (MAC) | 13 | South Dakota State (Summit) |
| Austin (Fri/Sun) | Dayton (Fri/Sun) | ||
| ↓ 6 | Pittsburgh | 6 | Colorado State |
| 11 | Iowa State | 11 | Baylor or Temple |
| 3 | New Mexico (MWC) | 3 | Louisville |
| 14 | Northwestern State (Southland) | 14 | Harvard (Ivy) |
| Auburn Hills (Thu/Sat) | Lexington (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 7 | N.C. State | ↑ 7 | Illinois |
| 10 | UCLA | 10 | La Salle |
| 2 | Michigan State | ↓ 2 | Florida (SEC) |
| 15 | Montana (Big Sky) | 15 | Mercer (A-Sun) |
| FIRST FOUR (Dayton) | |||
| Tuesday: To Lexington | Tuesday: To San Jose | ||
| 16 | Niagara (MAAC) | 12 | Arizona State |
| 16 | Norfolk State (MEAC) | ↓ 12 | Villanova |
| Wednesday: To Dayton | Wednesday: To Dayton |
||
| *16 | Charleston Southern (Big South) | 11 | Baylor |
| 16 | Southern (SWAC) | *11 | Temple |
| BIDS BY CONFERENCE | LAST FOUR BYES | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
| Big East: 8 | Iowa State | Charleston Southern | High Point |
| Big Ten: 7 | Virginia | Temple | Mississippi |
| Big 12: 6 | California | ||
| Pac-12: 6 | St. Mary's | ||
| ACC: 5 |
LAST FOUR IN | ||
| A-10: 5 |
Villanova | ||
| MWC: 4 | Temple | ||
| MVC: 2 | Arizona State | ||
| SEC: 2 | Baylor | PROCEDURAL | MOVES |
| WCC: 2 | LAST FOUR OUT | Pittsburgh | 5 down to 6 |
| 1-Bid Conferences: 21 | St. John's | Oregon | 6 up to 5 |
| Kentucky | Memphis | 7 down to 8 | |
| Mississippi | Illinois | 8 up to 7 | |
| Boise State | St. Mary's | 11 down to 12 | |
| NEXT FOUR OUT | Arizona State | 12 up to 11 | |
| Southern Miss. | Temple | 12 up to 11 | |
| Iowa | |||
| Alabama | |||
| BYU |
Also considered (in order): Indiana State, Maryland, Arkansas, Xavier, Charlotte, UMass, Stanford, Air Force, Texas A&M, Tennessee
The biggest factor working against Gonzaga's top seed hopes is its schedule, as the majority of the other contenders for a No. 1 simply have more quality win opportunities coming up between now and Selection Sunday than the Bulldogs will. Making matters worse for Gonzaga, its conference tournament finishes on the Monday of Championship Week, meaning its competitors will have a better chance to make a strong final impression on the Committee.
Here's how the remaining schedules stack up for Gonzaga and its rivals in the race for the last top seed. I've included Duke in this list, as its No. 1 slot is a bit shakier than Indiana's or Miami's, thanks to the continued absence of Ryan Kelly.
Gonzaga: San Diego, at BYU, Portland, WCC Tournament
Duke: Boston College, at Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech, at North Carolina
Michigan State: at Ohio State, at Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Big Ten Tournament
Florida: Arkansas, at Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, at Kentucky, SEC Tournament
Michigan: Illinois, at Penn State, Michigan State, at Purdue, Indiana, Big Ten Tournament
Syracuse: Georgetown, at Marquette, Louisville, DePaul, at Georgetown, Big East Tournament
Kansas: TCU, at Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, at Baylor, Big 12 Tournament
Arizona: Washington State, at USC, at UCLA, Arizona State, Pac-12 Tournament
Louisville: Seton Hall, at DePaul, at Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Big East Tournament
Georgetown: at Syracuse, at Connecticut, Rutgers, at Villanova, Syracuse, Big East Tournament
Upon a first glance of those slates, the two Big Ten and three Big East contenders have the most to gain over the final weeks of the season. Of course, those teams' results might very well end up a wash, something that might work to Gonzaga's advantage, and potentially that of Arizona, Florida and Kansas as well. That's because all four have a decent shot at winning a conference title, a feat the Selection Committee seriously respects. Of the 20 teams to earn a No. 1 seed over the past five seasons, 17 of them earned at least a tie for their respective regular season league crowns.
Now, if those schedule-deficient squads can go on and claim the difficult regular season/tournament double, their odds will get even better. Since 2008, 12 teams finished with at least a share of a regular season championship and a league tournament title in a traditional Big Six conference. Ten of those 12 squads went on to earn a No. 1 seed -- the only exceptions were Wisconsin in 2008 (a three seed) and Ohio State in 2010 (a two).
Yes, I know Gonzaga isn't in a power conference, but if you look at the 11th team that earned a No. 1 after claiming a championship double in that 2008-2012 span -- the 2008 Memphis team that ran roughshod through Conference USA -- Bulldog fans have real reason to hope. If Gonzaga sweeps both WCC crowns, it could potentially match Memphis' Top 50 win total (6), provided No. 48 St. Mary's stays in the Top 50 and the archrivals meet for the title. Given the right matchups in Vegas, the Bulldogs could even come within one of the Tigers' Top 100 win total of 15, provided they -- already boasting 11 Top 100 wins -- beat BYU next Thursday and sweep past Santa Clara in the semis and either the Gaels or Cougars in the title game at Orleans Arena. If all that happens and the other contenders stumble, it would be very difficult to keep Gonzaga off the top line.
A word of caution, though. The one recent season where non-championship teams did the best in terms of earning top seeds was 2009, a season where the Big East was particularly strong at the top, grabbing three No. 1s (Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Louisville) and a pair of threes (Syracuse and Villanova). Given the strength of the Big Ten in 2012-13, with Indiana solidly in the top spot overall, Michigan State and Michigan battling to join them on the No. 1 line, and Wisconsin and Ohio State further down in the protected seed race, it's not difficult to see that conference doing something out of the ordinary.
At the other end of the bid picture, Temple is the only new at-large team in the field, replacing Mississippi, who fell at South Carolina on Wednesday, the Rebels' fifth loss in their last seven contests. Baylor just remains in after disappointing home loss to Iowa State on Wednesday night. The Bears are 2-8 against the Top 50 and in dire need of a win at Oklahoma, who beat them on January 30th in Waco, on Saturday. Kentucky (who hosts Missouri) and St. John's (who welcomes Pittsburgh to New York on Sunday) are among the teams who may replace Baylor on Tuesday.
Here's a look at this weekend's other games of importance to the field of 68. Be sure to check out the final edition of BracketBusters to get a look at some teams who may very well create an upset or two ... or more come March.
Friday
Showcase Game
Saint Louis at Butler, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Other Games of Bracket Importance
BracketBusters: North Dakota State at Akron, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
BracketBusters: Stephen F. Austin at Long Beach State, 9 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Saturday
Showcase Games
VCU at Xavier, 2 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Georgetown at Syracuse, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
N.C. State at North Carolina, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)
New Mexico at Colorado State, 4 p.m. ET (NBC Sports Network)
Baylor at Oklahoma, 5 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Marquette at Villanova, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
BracketBusters: Creighton at St. Mary's, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Stanford at Oregon, 8 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)
Missouri at Kentucky, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Other Games of Bracket Importance
BracketBusters: Iona at Indiana State, 11 a.m. ET (ESPNU)
Clemson at Maryland, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Seton Hall at Louisville, 12 p.m. ET (Big East Network/ESPN3)
BracketBusters: Eastern Kentucky at Valparaiso, 1 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Southern Mississippi at Memphis, 1 p.m. ET (FSN/FCS Atlantic)
Miami at Wake Forest, 1 p.m. ET (FS South/ESPN3)
Alabama at LSU, 1:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network Regional/ESPN3)
Texas Tech at Iowa State, 1:30 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/ESPN3)
Oklahoma State at West Virginia, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Iowa at Nebraska, 2 p.m. ET (BTN Alternate)
BracketBusters: Montana at Davidson, 3 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Washington State at Arizona, 3 p.m. ET (FSN)
BracketBusters: Detroit at Wichita State, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
TCU at Kansas, 4 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/ESPN3)
George Washington at St. Joseph's, 4 p.m. ET (Comcast SportsNet)
Auburn at Mississippi, 5 p.m. ET (Select FSN Networks)
Nevada at San Diego State, 6 p.m. ET (NBC Sports Network)
California at Oregon State, 6 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)
Arkansas at Florida, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
San Diego at Gonzaga, 7 p.m. ET (KHQ/ROOT Sports Northwest and Rocky Mountain/CSN Bay Area)
UNLV at Wyoming, 7:30 p.m. ET (Time Warner Cable Sportsnet)
BracketBusters: South Dakota State at Murray State, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Harvard at Yale, 8 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Kansas State at Texas, 8 p.m. ET (Longhorn Network/FS Kansas City)
BracketBusters: Ohio at Belmont, 10 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Washington at Arizona State, 11 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Sunday
Showcase Games
Illinois at Michigan, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Michigan State at Ohio State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
Pittsburgh at St. John's, 12 p.m. ET (Big East Network/ESPN3)
Cincinnati at Notre Dame, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
Other Games of Bracket Importance
La Salle at Rhode Island, 2 p.m. ET (Cox Sports)
Georgia Tech at Virginia, 2 p.m. ET (ACC Network Regional/ESPN3)
Boston College at Duke, 2 p.m. ET (ACC Network Regional/ESPN3)
UCLA at USC, 3:30 p.m. ET (FSN)
Temple at Charlotte, 4 p.m. ET (no TV)
Monday
Showcase Games
Syracuse at Marquette, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Kansas at Iowa State, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Other Games of Bracket Importance
Texas Tech at Kansas State, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Villanova at Seton Hall, 9 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Enjoy the games between now and my next update, which will be out on Tuesday.