Bracketology: Two new entrants at February's end

The two new entrants are the biggest changes compared to Tuesday's edition of bracketology, as 15 of the top 16 from that projection remain in place. Florida (South), Arizona (West), Syracuse (East) and Wichita State (Midwest) lead the way, while Louisville replaces Saint Louis, who lost to Duquesne last night, on the four line.

I'll have more on the bid picture after today's full bracket and rundown.

New teams are indicated by an asterisk (*), while teams shifted for bracketing purposes are marked with a caret (^).

(1) SOUTH Memphis (Thu/Sat)		(2) WEST Anaheim (Thu/Sat)
Orlando (Thu/Sat)		San Diego (Fri/Sun)
1	Florida (SEC)	1	Arizona (Pac-12)
16	Davidson (SoCon)	16	Robert Morris (NEC)
8	Kansas State	8 88	George Washington
9	Arizona State	9	Pittsburgh
Spokane (Thu/Sat)		San Diego (Fri/Sun)
55 5	Texas	5 5	Ohio State
^12	Minnesota	*1212	Southern Miss. (C-USA)
4	Virginia (ACC)	↑ 4	Louisville
↑ 13	Delaware (CAA)	13	Belmont (OVC)
Milwaukee (Thu/Sat)		Raleigh (Fri/Sun)
↑ 6	Oklahoma	666	North Carolina
^11	Arkansas/BYU	↑ 11	Oklahoma State
3	Wisconsin	3	Michigan (Big Ten)
14	Stephen F. Austin (Southland)	14	Mercer (A-Sun)
Buffalo (Thu/Sat)		Raleigh (Fri/Sun)
7	UMass	7	Connecticut
10	California	10	Baylor
2	Villanova	2	Duke
15	Boston U. (Patriot)	↓ 15	Georgia State (Sun Belt)
(4) MIDWEST Indianapolis (Fri/Sun)		(3) EAST New York (Fri/Sun)
St. Louis (Fri/Sun)		Buffalo (Thu/Sat)
1	Wichita State (MVC)	1	Syracuse
16	High Point/Weber State	16	Alabama State/Utah Valley
8	Stanford	8	VCU
9	SMU	9	Colorado
San Antonio (Fri/Sun)		San Antonio (Fri/Sun)
↓ 5	Saint Louis (A 10)	↓ 5	Kentucky
↑ 12	North Dakota State (Summit)	^12	Xavier
4	Cincinnati (AAC)	4	Iowa State
13	Western Michigan (MAC)	13	Green Bay (Horizon)
Spokane (Thu/Sat)		Raleigh (Fri/Sun)
6	UCLA	6	New Mexico (MW)
11	Harvard (Ivy)	^11	Oregon/Providence
3	San Diego State	3	Michigan State
*14	Vermont (AE)	14	Iona (MAAC)
St. Louis (Fri/Sun)		Milwaukee (Thu/Sat)
↓ 7	Memphis	↓ 7	Iowa
↑ 10	St. Joseph's	10	Gonzaga (WCC)
2	Kansas (Big 12)	2	Creighton (Big East)
*15	UC Irvine (Big West)	15	N.C. Central (MEAC)
FIRST FOUR (Dayton)
Tuesday: To Buffalo		Tuesday: To Milwaukee
16	Alabama State (SWAC)	^*11	Arkansas
*16	Utah Valley (WAC)	^11	BYU
Wednesday: To St. Louis		Wednesday: To Raleigh
*16	High Point (Big South)	^*11	Oregon
16	Weber State (Big Sky)	^↓11	Providence

BIDS BY CONFERENCE	AVOIDING DAYTON	ARRIVALS	DEPARTURES
Big 12: 7	St. Joseph's	Arkansas	Middle Tennessee
Pac-12: 7	Oklahoma State	High Point	New Mexico State
Big Ten: 6	Minnesota	Oregon	Richmond
A 10: 5	Xavier	Southern Miss.	St. John's
AAC: 5	LAST FOUR IN	UC Irvine	Stony Brook
ACC: 5	Oregon	Utah Valley	UC Santa Barbara
Big East: 4	BYU	Vermont	VMI
SEC: 3	Providence
MW: 2	Arkansas
WCC: 2	FIRST FOUR OUT
1-Bid Conferences: 22	Tennessee
	Richmond
	Missouri
	St. John's
	NEXT FOUR OUT
	Dayton
	Florida State
	Nebraska
	Marquette

Also considered: LSU, Toledo, Georgetown, Clemson, Louisiana Tech, N.C. State, Mississippi, West Virginia

As I walk through who is a lock in this field and who still has some worrying left to do, keep in mind that 32 places in this season's 68-team field are reserved for conference auto bid winners. However, nine of those squads will represent conferences that will most likely place multiple teams in the field. So, 23 places, the ones that go to the champions of likely single-bid conferences, are truly off the table. All bets are off if there are any surprise power conference tournament winners, though.

That leaves 36 at-larges and nine power conference auto bids to fill, for 45 available spots.

Conference leaders are designated by an asterisk (*), while teams shifted for bracketing purposes are marked with a caret (^).

Protected Seeds

1 seeds	1. Florida*	2. Arizona*	3. Syracuse	4. Wichita State*
2 seeds	8. Villanova	7. Duke	6. Creighton*	5. Kansas*
3 seeds	9. Wisconsin	10. Michigan*	11. Michigan State	12. San Diego State
4 seeds	16. Louisville	15. Virginia*	14. Cincinnati*	13. Iowa State

Other Locks

5 seeds	17. Texas	18. Kentucky	19. Ohio State	20. Saint Louis*
6 seeds	24. Oklahoma	23. New Mexico*	22. North Carolina	21. UCLA
7 seeds	25. UMass	26. Connecticut	27. Iowa	28. Memphis
8 seeds				29. VCU

After considering our locks, 28 of those 45 available spots are gone. Keep in mind that Wichita State does not count against our total, as the Missouri Valley will only send a second team if the Shockers lose at Arch Madness next week.

Good Shape

8 seeds	32. Kansas State	31. Geo. Washington	30. Stanford
9 seeds	33. Arizona State	34. Pittsburgh

After including these five teams with slightly-flawed selection sheets, our number of occupied spots increases to 33.

Bubble In

9 seeds			35. SMU	36. Colorado
10 seeds		39. St. Joseph's	38. Baylor	37. Gonzaga*

There are now a dozen available spots, which break down fairly simply. Four of these five -- excepting Gonzaga, who again doesn't count against our total, as the WCC is not assured of multiple bids -- are getting some distance away from the cut line due to the combination of some recent decent performances (for the most part) and the struggles of the teams below.

Last Four Byes (Avoiding Dayton)

10 seeds	40. California
11 seeds		42. Oklahoma State	43. Minnesota^	44. Xavier^

Of this group, Oklahoma State seems to be on the upswing with the return of Marcus Smart from his suspension, while Minnesota got a bit of a boost with its win over Iowa on Tuesday night. Cal and Xavier, however, are slipping because of their recent inconsistency.

Last Four In (First Four)

12 seeds	48. Providence^		46. BYU^	45. Oregon^
12 seeds	49. Arkansas^

Today's two new entrants, Oregon and Arkansas, fall here, along with BYU, which still has many questionable losses that could negate great computer numbers, and Providence, a team that hasn't beaten a bid contender in over a month.

First Four Out/Next Four Out

First 4 Out

69. Tennessee

70. Richmond

71. Missouri

72. St. John's

Next 4 Out

73. Dayton

74. Florida State

75. Nebraska

76. Marquette

I was tempted to put Tennessee and Missouri in today's field ahead of Arkansas, but thought better of it after considering that each suffered a sweep at the hands of teams not in the at-large hunt within the past seven days. At this point, Arkansas, even with worse computer numbers due to a higher number of wins against teams from well outside of the RPI Top 250, has an edge because of a 7-8 record against the Top 100 and four Top 50 wins. A relative lack of losses to teams from outside of the Top 100 (one) helps too.

Florida State and Marquette are attempting to make a late charge, while Nebraska's loss at Illinois sends the Huskers tumbling a bit.

In The Hunt

77. LSU	78. Georgetown	79. Toledo	80. Clemson
84. West Virginia	83. Mississippi	82. N.C. State	81. Louisiana Tech

Time is growing short for all eight of these teams, particularly Georgetown, Clemson, West Virginia and N.C. State, all of whom lost critical games since Tuesday's projection.

Potential At-Large

11 seeds	41. Harvard
12 seeds		47. Southern Miss.
12 seeds		50. North Dakota St.
13 seeds	51. Green Bay

Harvard is basically here as a courtesy, as it will receive seeding respect should it claim the Ivy crown over Yale, but should the Crimson stumble, the other three teams in this group may get more of an at-large look. Still, the only guarantee for this group is a conference tournament triumph.

Auto Bid Only

13 seeds		52. W. Michigan	53. Belmont*	54. Delaware*
14 seeds	58. Stephen F. Austin*	57. Mercer*	56. Vermont*	55. Iona*
15 seeds	59. Boston U.*	61. Georgia State*	60. UC Irvine*	59. N.C. Central*
16 seeds (Direct)	63. Robert Morris*	64. Davidson*
16 seeds (First Four)	65. Utah Valley*	66. Weber State*	67. High Point*	68. Alabama State*

The auto bid is also the only way in for this group, the composition of which will likely change on a daily basis, beginning with the first conference tournament games on March 3rd.

My next bracketology will be a full update on Tuesday. In the meantime, head over to Blogging the Bracket for my daily TV previews and morning recaps, and follow me during the weekend's action on Twitter @ChrisDobbertean.