If the Selection Committee wheels out a lotto machine to draw out the last few teams tomorrow night, don't be shocked. A bubble already crowded with flawed teams picked up yet another on Saturday night when the San Diego State Aztecs became the 18th top seed to lose in their conference tournament. SDSU fell to the Fresno State Bulldogs, who had no at-large hopes, 68-63, with the conference's auto bid on the line.
Per RPIForecast.com, the loss dropped the Aztecs' RPI to 38th, still within range for at-large selection. However, a closer look at the Aztecs' profile shows that it has real flaws. The biggest factor in favor of including the Aztecs is their non-conference strength of schedule, ranked second. However, SDSU was able to grab just a single win over an at-large team, a 72-58 win over the California Golden Bears on Thanksgiving night in Las Vegas. After Saturday night's loss, the Aztecs are just 1-4 against the Top 50 and 3-7 against the Top 100. That's not going to cut it, even in a season like this.
So, with the Aztecs jumping into the fray, here's what the picture near the cut line looks like heading into Sunday. This is only a slight change from my earlier post Saturday evening.
I'll have a full bracket update on Selection Sunday morning.
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