The state of Illinois isn’t used to seeing two of its college basketball teams meeting in the men’s NCAA tournament. It had only happened twice in history entering this year, most recently in 1984 when DePaul knocked off Illinois State on its way to the Sweet 16. In 2021, the thought amounted to something of a nightmare scenario heading into Selection Sunday that became realized when the bracket was announced.
The Illinois Fighting Illini, fresh off their first Big Ten tournament championship since 2005, would anchor the Midwest region as the No. 1 seed. The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were listed one game below, taking a No. 8 seed into a matchup with Georgia Tech. If Loyola could get past the ACC tournament champion Yellow Jackets, it would be on a crash course to face the Illini in the round of 32.
Now it’s happening. After Illinois trounced Drexel, 78-49, and Loyola took out Georgia Tech, 71-60, in the opening round on Friday, the Illini and Ramblers are set to face off on Sunday at 12:10 pm. ET on CBS.
Illinois has rightfully been deemed one of the favorites to win the entire tournament, and will enter the game as a seven-point favorite in Vegas. Don’t let that spread fool you into discounting the Ramblers. Loyola went to the Final Four in 2018, and most of the numbers suggest this team is even stronger entering the tournament this year. There’s even a case to be made that the Ramblers are one of the more overqualified No. 8 seeds the field has seen in recent years.
Given the stakes on both sides, it doesn’t feel like a stretch to call this the biggest game in the history of college basketball in Illinois — or at least the biggest game since Loyola beat Illinois on its way to the 1963 national championship. Here’s what you need to know before the Ramblers and Illini face-off.
It’s a shame Illinois vs. Loyola is happening so early into March Madness
Maybe the NCAA just wanted to ensure that every TV between Rogers Park and Champaign would be tuned in to the same game. Maybe Loyola ending up as a No. 8 seed in the same region as the Illini happened all by chance. Whatever the reason, it counts as a bad break for both of these teams that they have to catch an opponent as strong as the other in the round of 32.
The beef here is with the Ramblers’ placement. Loyola entered the tournament as the No. 9 overall team in America in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, and placed No. 10 overall in the NET rankings, a tool created by the NCAA to help the Selection Committee seed the bracket. Somehow being favored by the NCAA’s own metric couldn’t help the Ramblers overcome the lack of quality opponents on their schedule after going 6-4 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams during the season and undefeated against everyone else. According to the full seed list, the committee doesn’t even think Loyola is the best No. 8 seed.
If you’re still not convinced that it’s a crime for this game to be happening in the round of 32, take it from Sister Jean:
“Probably nobody thinks it’s a fair bracket,” the 101-year-old nun from Loyola said. “It amazes me they put two Illinois schools against each other rather than support each other.”
In an alternate universe where Loyola gets Clemson’s No. 7 seed in the Midwest, a matchup between the Illini and Ramblers would have been a popular Elite Eight pick. Instead, the only thing the winner gets on Sunday is meeting with the winner of Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State in the Sweet 16, which means a possible date with the NBA’s future No. 1 overall draft pick Cade Cunningham.
How Illinois and Loyola matchup statistically
Team | Offensive efficiency rank | Defensive efficiency rank | Tempo rank | eFG% | 3P% | 2P% | Three-point rate | Turnover percentage (offense) | Takeaway percentage (defense) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Offensive efficiency rank | Defensive efficiency rank | Tempo rank | eFG% | 3P% | 2P% | Three-point rate | Turnover percentage (offense) | Takeaway percentage (defense) |
Illinois | No. 8 | No. 4 | No. 80 | 55.7 | 37.5 | 55.5 | 30 | 17.9 | 16 |
Loyola-Chicago | No. 37 | No. 3 | No. 343 | 54.6 | 35.9 | 57.9 | 37.5 | 18.5 | 21.5 |
Here’s how Illinois and Loyola matchup in the efficiency stats offered by KenPom. A few key takeaways:
- Illinois wants to play fast. Increasing the tempo is always a good strategy for a favorite: the more possessions there are in a game, the more chances your talent advantage gets to show. Loyola, meanwhile, has been following the underdog’s formula for success all year: grind games to a halt and take away any quick-strike opportunities from the opponent.
- Both of these teams have elite defenses. Loyola was ranked No. 1 overall entering the tournament before slipping a couple spots after their win against Georgia Tech. Illinois has also been a top-10 defense most of the year with a conservative drop scheme based around keeping everything in front of center Kofi Cockburn.
- This likely won’t turn into a three-point fest. The Illini rank No. 320 out of 357 DI teams in three-point rate — the percentage of field goal attempts a team takes from three-point range. Loyola ranks only No. 173 in the same category. Instead of threes going up on every possession, the ones that do go up are going to feel like the difference between going home and staying in Indianapolis for another week.
How Illinois can beat Loyola
Gonzaga is the team that entered the NCAA tournament hoping to end the season as college basketball’s first undefeated national champion since Indiana in 1976, but there’s a case to be made that no team is hotter than the Illini right now.
Illinois has a pretty great setup. The Illini have a First Team All-American guard in Ayo Dosunmu to initiate the offense. They have perhaps the most hulking physical presence in the field at center in Cockburn. Around the two stars, there’s a group of players whose responsibilities fall into the 3-and-D mold (seniors Trent Frazier and Da’Monte Williams, junior Jacob Grandison, freshman Adam Miller), plus an electric freshman creator off the bench in Andre Curbelo.
The key for Illinois is always establishing Cockburn and keeping him out of foul trouble. The sophomore center has the sixth biggest diet of post-ups in college basketball, getting the ball on the block 7.7 times per game, which is roughly half of his possessions, per Synergy Sports. Cockburn averages one point per possession on post touches, which grades out as ‘excellent’ on Synergy and ranks in the 84th percentile in America. That Cockburn is unstoppable down low isn’t exactly breaking news after he waxed presumptive national player of the year Luka Garza in a Big Ten tournament matchup and put up double-figures in scoring in all but two games this year, but it’s worth noting none the less.
Illinois will want to get Dosunmu downhill attacking the basket in the pick-and-roll and on dribble handoffs. When that doesn’t work, it will let Curbelo try to create some magic as a ball handler and find the angles no one else can see.
It seems like a different player is stepping up as Illinois’ third scorer after Dosunmu and Cockburn every game, and they will need that trend to continue against the Ramblers.
How Loyola can beat Illinois
We already established that Loyola will want to slow the pace and limit possessions against a juggernaut like the Illini. Their best strategy might be attacking Cockburn defensively both in the post and in space, and seeing if that leads to some playmaking opportunities for Loyola’s own star center, Cameron Krutwig.
Krutwig doesn’t have the name recognition of Dosunmu and Cockburn, but he’s been one of the very best players in college hoops all year. The 6’9, 255-pound big man ranks No. 4 in KenPom’s Player of the Year standings (one spot behind Dosunmu), and entered the tournament top-10 in all-in-one stats like PER and BPM.
Krutwig is also a monster in the post, getting 43.5 percent of his possessions on the block and scoring in the 87th percentile on those opportunities. Unlike Cockburn who only has five assists all season, Krutwig is also an ultra-skilled passer. Look for Loyola to let him leverage his facilitating in the high-post and on the block to find cutters going to the basket and shooters dotting the three-point arc.
Fellow senior Lucas Williamson is worthy of co-star status. A tough 6’4 wing, Williamson won Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year this season and can turn up aggressive ball pressure when he wants to with an impressive 3.2 percent steal rate. Williamson will try to disrupt the Illini’s side-to-side ball movement and get out in transition for easy baskets, where he scores in the 88th percentile of America. In the halfcourt, look for Braden Norris and Keith Clemons to try to get loose for threes, and for reserve guard Marquise Kennedy to give Loyola some much needed dribble-penetration.
Krutwig and Williamson were both key contributors on Loyola’s Final Four team as freshmen. It’s fitting that they have their program back to the pinnacle with a shot to knock-off their heavily favored in-state rival as seniors.
Illinois vs. Loyola-Chicago time and TV channel
When: Sunday, March 21
Time: 12:10 p.m. ET or 11:10 a.m. CT for Illinois-based fans
TV: CBS
Read our features on Ayo Dosunmu and Cameron Krutwig
We interviewed both Dosunmu and Krutwig before the tournament. Check out our coverage here:
- Ayo Dosunmu is the star Illini basketball always needed
- Loyola-Chicago’s Cameron Krutwig on Final Four run, Sister Jean, and return to NCAA tournament
Also be sure to read The Champaign Room for continued coverage of the Illini, and Mid-Major Madness for coverage of Loyola.
Illinois vs. Loyola prediction in 2021 NCAA tournament
What’s not to love about this matchup? We have two top-10 teams in efficiency rankings with two of the best defenses in college basketball. We have two of the best big men in the sport staring each other down. We have the Morgan Park-grad Dosunmu as the Chicago-bred star who finally chose the Illini and made good on his promise. We have Whitney Young-grad Williamson who was ignored by high majors like the Illini but now gets the chance to upset them.
I already went on the record saying that if these two teams played a best-of-seven series, I’d take Illinois in six games. What does that mean for a head-to-head meeting in a single elimination tournament?
We’ll take Illinois to win the game, but Loyola to cover the seven-point spread.
Cockburn is the swing factor here. For as great as Krutwig is, Cockburn feels like college basketball’s biggest mismatch problem right now. There isn’t another player in America who can match his combination of size, strength, and finishing touch. If Loyola can get Cockburn in foul trouble, they’ll have a chance to pull the upset. Otherwise, we see the Illini sneaking by in a close game.