I like the card for Week 5 a whole lot, so let's get to it.
Stanford at Washington +7: Stanford is overvalued after a win over USC. Washington isn't anything special, but I am not convinced Stanford will blow out the Huskies, because the Cardinal just don't score all that much.
Ohio State at Michigan State -3: Michigan State has trouble scoring, but Ohio State has yet to take to the road. I think some of the difficulties in installing the spread option will be exposed by an excellent front seven of the Spartans.
Clemson at Boston College +10 & Over 60: Clemson's defense is horrid. As in, allowing 9 yards-per-play to Florida State horrid. Boston College can move the ball a bit, and there's almost no reason for Clemson to come out focused here, given that they must now hope for FSU to lose two games in order to regain the division lead.
Florida State -16.5 at USF: South Florida lost to Ball State, as I mentioned could happen last week:
USF has its biggest home game in the history of the program next week when Florida State comes to town. Ball State will have a big edge in motivation here, and it wouldn't shock me to see an outright win.
This game will feature no more than 60-percent USF fans, and will have the feel of a bowl game as FSU fans are buying tickets in droves. FSU's defense matches up very well with B.J. Daniels style, as they can pressure with the front four, leaving plenty of defenders to cover and handle Daniels' scrambles.
FSU does have a letdown factor here as the Clemson game was the biggest in several years. USF has the motivation edge.
TCU at SMU +17: This seems high.
Missouri at UCF -2.5: This line implies Missouri is the better team. I did not agree with that sentiment in the preseason and am even more confident in my assessment now.
Arizona State at Cal -2: Arizona State is a bit overvalued here, and I'm not sure that they match up all that well with Cal. And Arizona State on the road is a different animal, as is Cal at home.
Minnesota at Iowa -6.5: Iowa really needs this game and has the talent to take care of Minnesota if it comes out focused. After losing to a MAC team last week, I think that's exactly what the Hawkeyes will do.
Duke at Wake Forest -3: Wake likely not having nose guard Nikita Whitlock scares me a bit, but I really like QB Tanner Price. Wake has won 12 straight over Duke. Slot receiver Campanaro may have a field day against a thin Duke secondary. Can Duke run the football? This bet says no.
Cincinnati at Virginia Tech -7: This game is at a neutral site (Fex Ed field in DC). But Virginia Tech is back to basics and playing classic Hokie defense. Cincinnati is nothing special, and I think Tech can do enough on offense with Thomas to get it done.
Baylor at West Virginia -12.5: Neither of these teams play any defense, but West Virginia has more firepower. It's also Baylor's Big XII opener, and Morgantown is a tough trip.
NC State +3 at Miami: A noon game in Miami will probably draw less than 45,000 fans, offering very little home field advantage. UM's defense is horrible, and NC State has competent quarterback play. Savvy gamblers grabbed this at+6 on open.
Oregon State at Arizona -2.5: Arizona isn't quite as bad as its 49-0 loss to Oregon. Oregon State might be a bit overvalued with its win over UCLA. I like the Wildcats at home, and like to wager against teams who won the previous week as an underdog of more than a touchdown.
San Jose State -2.5 at Navy: Navy's defense is very bad. San Jose State is a pretty good football team. I do worry about them travelling cross country, but Navy has the look-ahead factor with Air Force on deck.
Miami (OH) at Akron +3.5: Akron can move the football pretty well and is a much better team than I originally thought. Miami's offense can score, which is a bit scary, but I am not convinced Akron should be an underdog.
Middle Tennessee State +27.5 at Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are in a prime hangover spot here after blowing their chance to potentially win the division by dropping a game to lowly Miami last week. MTSU is not a bad team.
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