Updated 2013 bowl projections, Week 8: LSU to BCS, Bama-Oregon still on

Predictions for all 35 bowl games, including the Tigers' charge toward New Orleans.

By Jason Kirk Oct 13, 2013, 10:28am EDT

Two SEC teams are probably going to the BCS. It's happened seven years in a row now. The conference's champion has an excellent chance at the national championship, and its second most desirable team should land in the Sugar Bowl, a traditional conference tie. These are the things we know.

But which SEC team? The entire East is in disarray, with Georgia banged up, Florida still lacking offense, Missouri down its quarterback, and South Carolina only now teasing its full potential. Texas A&M still doesn't have much of a defense.

Which leaves LSU, and once you look again, that's not bad at all. The Tigers could still finish with just two losses, to Alabama and a healthy Georgia, both on the road. (Of course, a win over Alabama on November 9 is still on the table.) Should the Aggies beat everyone else in their way except LSU and also reach 10-2, Johnny Manziel's last college game could make for a tempting Sugar pick, but I have more confidence in the Tigers right now.

So how about a rematch of one of last year's best bowl games, this time with even bigger stakes?

	Bowl	Matchup (Not always based on standings)	Team	Team
1/6/2014	BCS National Championship (Pasadena)	BCS 1 vs. BCS 2	Alabama, 13-0	Oregon, 13-0
1/3/2014	Orange (Miami)	ACC 1 vs. At-large 1	Florida State, 12-1	Louisville, 12-0*
1/2/2014	Sugar (New Orleans)	SEC 1 vs. At-large 2	LSU, 10-2****	Clemson, 10-2
1/1/2014	Rose (Pasadena)	Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1 (At-large 3)	Ohio State, 13-0	Stanford, 10-2
1/1/2014	Fiesta (Glendale, AZ)	Big 12 1 vs. At-large 4	Baylor, 11-1	Northern Illinois, 13-0*****
1/5/2014	GoDaddy (Mobile, AL)	MAC 2 vs. Sun Belt 2	Ball State	Western Kentucky
1/4/2014	BBVA Compass (B'ham)	SEC 9 vs. AAC 5	Texas State**	Cincinnati
1/3/2014	Cotton (Arlington)	Big 12 2 vs. SEC 3	Oklahoma	South Carolina
1/1/2014	Capital One (Orlando)	Big Ten 2 vs. SEC 2	Michigan State	Texas A&M***
1/1/2014	Gator (Jacksonville)	Big Ten 4 vs. SEC 6	Nebraska	Missouri
1/1/2014	Heart of Dallas	Big Ten 7 vs. Big 12 8	Iowa	Notre Dame**
1/1/2014	Outback (Tampa)	Big Ten 3 vs. SEC 4	Wisconsin	Florida
12/31/2013	Chick-fil-A (Atlanta)	ACC 2 vs. SEC 5	Virginia Tech	Georgia
12/31/2013	Independence (Shreveport)	SEC 10 vs. ACC 7	Arizona**	Georgia Tech
12/31/2013	Liberty (Memphis)	C-USA 1 vs. SEC 8	Marshall	Ole Miss
12/31/2013	Sun (El Paso)	ACC 4 vs. Pac-12 4	Maryland	Washington
12/30/2013	Alamo (San Antonio)	Big 12 3 vs. Pac-12 2	Oklahoma State	UCLA
12/30/2013	Armed Forces (Ft. Worth)	MWC 3 vs. C-USA 3/Navy	Wyoming	Navy
12/30/2013	Holiday (San Diego)	Pac-12 3 vs. Big 12 5	Arizona State	Texas Tech
12/30/2013	Music City (Nashville)	ACC 6 vs. SEC 7	Boston College	Auburn
12/28/2013	Belk (Charlotte)	AAC 3 vs. ACC 5	Houston	Pitt
12/28/2013	Buffalo Wild Wings (PHX)	Big 12 4 vs. Big Ten 5	Texas	Northwestern
12/28/2013	Pinstripe (New York)	Big 12 7 vs. AAC 4	Buffalo**	Rutgers
12/28/2013	Russell Athletic (Orlando)	AAC 2 vs. ACC 3	UCF	Miami
12/27/2013	Kraft (San Francisco)	Pac-12 6 vs. BYU/ACC 9	USC	BYU
12/27/2013	Military (Annapolis)	ACC 8 vs. C-USA 5	Toledo**	Rice
12/27/2013	Texas (Houston)	Big 12 6 vs. Big Ten 6	TCU	Michigan
12/26/2013	Little Caesars (Detroit)	MAC 1 vs. Big Ten 8	Bowling Green	Indiana
12/26/2013	Poinsettia (San Diego)	MWC 2 vs. Army	Boise State	Middle Tennessee**
12/24/2013	Hawaii	MWC 5 vs. C-USA 2	San Diego State	East Carolina
12/23/2013	Beef O'Brady's (St. Pete.)	AAC 6 vs. C-USA 4	Arkansas State**	North Texas
12/21/2013	Idaho Potato (Boise)	MAC 3 vs. MWC 6	Ohio	Troy**
12/21/2013	Las Vegas	MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 5	Fresno State	Utah
12/21/2013	New Mexico (Albuquerque)	MWC 4 vs. Pac-12 7	Utah State	Oregon State
12/21/2013	New Orleans	Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA 6	Louisiana-Lafayette	Tulane

* The American champion isn't technically an at-large, but for bowl-selection purposes, it's basically an AQ at-large.

** Filling in for another conference that couldn't fill all its slots.

*** Edit: Strange seeing a West team in Florida and an East team in the Cotton? After going back and forth on this: nobody's passing up Johnny Manziel's last game, no matter the geography.

**** To answer one frequent question: basically, I see Florida and South Carolina beating everyone left on their schedules -- except one will lose to the other, and the other will lose the SEC title game. If you think a two-loss South Carolina makes for a better Sugar pick than a two-loss LSU, you might be right! A two-loss Texas A&M is sounding like a better and better Sugar pick to me, actually.

***** Regarding the high number of undefeated teams: I know. It's a lot. There have been this many before, though. Five unbeaten teams entered bowl season in 2009. All five have obvious potential losses remaining.

BCS bowls

Alabama and Oregon continue to look more and more like national title teams, and we could be about to get the game that's been teased for something like four years now.

Assuming Alabama's still ranked No. 1, that would give the Sugar the next pick. We're putting LSU there for now.

The Rose would next get its pick to pair with Big Ten champion Ohio State*, and while Utah just knocked luster off of Stanford, the Cardinal could still finish with only losses on the road to the Utes and against No. 2 Oregon. Plus, the Rose Bowl is likely hoping for a traditional Big Ten vs. Pac-12 matchup as it celebrates its 100th anniversary. Can't go and bring in a Big 12 team and call it traditional.

* But I'm really, really tempted to have Michigan State beating Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Maybe next week. What do you think about that?

The Orange is up next, and would have its choice of Louisville, Northern Illinois (if the Huskies go unbeaten, they're back, since they're likely already within striking distance of that No. 12 BCS spot they'll need*), or another at-large. The Cardinals will boast potential No. 1 NFL Draft pick Teddy Bridgewater and a decent fanbase, plus the Orange (which will essentially be owned by the ACC moving forward) could showcase two 2014 ACC teams. Since it won't likely go for a rematch game, and only two teams per conference can make the BCS, there aren't many other options unless a Big Ten team like Wisconsin or Michigan State runs the table or someone like Oklahoma can reach 10 or 11 wins.

Hey, we finally joined Facebook!

* Also, I have fellow undefeated mid-major Fresno State losing at Wyoming.

Which means the Sugar's either getting Louisville or an at-large. In addition to those potential at-large teams mentioned above, Clemson has virtually already locked up at least 10 wins. Close losses to Florida State and South Carolina would still mean a successful season. The Tigers are the best bet. And last year's LSU-Clemson Chick-fil-A Bowl was awesome.

That leaves the Fiesta with a ratings and attendance dud, but still a pretty good game. If Baylor wins the Big 12 and NIU finishes in the top 14, this is the Fiesta Bowl.

Major changes

Since last time, I've swapped Florida State and Clemson, since the Noles have looked like the less-beatable team.

Among the other changes, LSU's up, USC's no longer a pungent dead fish, Texas is back in, Boston College is storming up the ACC ranks, Iowa joins us, Indiana's back, wounded Georgia tumbles from the Sugar, Utah State plummets after losing quarterback Chuckie Keeton for the year, and Oklahoma's out of the BCS for now -- until it remembers how to use Blake Bell, at least.