Updated 2013 bowl projections, Week 12: Alabama-FSU, Clemson-Wisconsin and more

Alabama-Florida State remains the BCS National Championship Game pick, while Stanford's fall shuffles the rest of the BCS race ... and impacts the rest of the games, too.

By Jason Kirk Nov 17, 2013, 9:28am EST

Did Stanford just fall from the doorstep of the national championship game to out of the BCS entirely? After Saturday's 20-17 upset at the paws of USC and Ed Orgeron, the Cardinal are no longer in line for even the Rose Bowl consolation prize and will now have to scrap with teams like Arizona State, UCLA, and those same Trojans for bowl positioning. That's life.

Elsewhere, the Big Ten gets a boost across the board, while the Pac-12 fallout jams up everything for just about the whole West Coast. Explanations to follow, and let's talk about these things in the comments.

Updated bowl projections after Week 12:

	Bowl	Matchup (Not always tied to conference standings)	Team	Team
1/6/2014	BCS National Championship (Pasadena)	BCS 1 vs. BCS 2	Alabama	Florida State
1/3/2014	Orange (Miami)	Florida State replacement vs. At-large 1	Clemson	Wisconsin
1/2/2014	Sugar (New Orleans)	Alabama replacement vs. At-large 2	Auburn	UCF
1/1/2014	Rose (Pasadena)	Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1 (At-large 3)	Ohio State	Oregon
1/1/2014	Fiesta (Glendale, AZ)	Big 12 1 vs. At-large 4	Baylor	Fresno State
1/5/2014	GoDaddy (Mobile, AL)	MAC 2 vs. Sun Belt 2	Ball State	Western Kentucky
1/4/2014	BBVA Compass (B'ham)	SEC 9 vs. AAC 5	Vanderbilt	Rutgers
1/3/2014	Cotton (Arlington)	Big 12 2 vs. SEC 3	Oklahoma State	Missouri
1/1/2014	Capital One (Orlando)	Big Ten 2 vs. SEC 2	Michigan State	Texas A&M
1/1/2014	Gator (Jacksonville)	Big Ten 4 vs. SEC 6	Minnesota	Ole Miss
1/1/2014	Heart of Dallas	Big Ten 7 vs. Big 12 8	Arizona*	Maryland*
1/1/2014	Outback (Tampa)	Big Ten 3 vs. SEC 4	Nebraska	LSU
12/31/2013	Chick-fil-A (Atlanta)	ACC 2 vs. SEC 5	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
12/31/2013	Independence (Shreveport)	SEC 10 vs. ACC 7	Utah*	Pitt
12/31/2013	Liberty (Memphis)	C-USA 1 vs. SEC 8	North Texas	Tennessee
12/31/2013	Sun (El Paso)	ACC 4 vs. Pac-12 4	Miami	Stanford
12/30/2013	Alamo (San Antonio)	Big 12 3 vs. Pac-12 2	Oklahoma	Arizona State
12/30/2013	Armed Forces (Ft. Worth)	MWC 3 vs. C-USA 3/Navy	San Diego State	Navy**
12/30/2013	Holiday (San Diego)	Pac-12 3 vs. Big 12 5	USC	Texas Tech
12/30/2013	Music City (Nashville)	ACC 6 vs. SEC 7	Boston College	Georgia
12/28/2013	Belk (Charlotte)	AAC 3 vs. ACC 5	Houston	Georgia Tech
12/28/2013	Buffalo Wild Wings (PHX)	Big 12 4 vs. Big Ten 5	Texas	Michigan
12/28/2013	Pinstripe (New York)	Big 12 7 vs. AAC 4	Notre Dame*	Cincinnati
12/28/2013	Russell Athletic (Orlando)	AAC 2 vs. ACC 3	Louisville	Duke
12/27/2013	Kraft (San Francisco)	Pac-12 6 vs. BYU/ACC 9	Washington	BYU**
12/27/2013	Military (Annapolis)	ACC 8 vs. C-USA 5	North Carolina	East Carolina
12/27/2013	Texas (Houston)	Big 12 6 vs. Big Ten 6	Kansas State	Iowa
12/26/2013	Little Caesars (Detroit)	MAC 1 vs. Big Ten 8	Northern Illinois	Arkansas State*
12/26/2013	Poinsettia (San Diego)	MWC 2 vs. Army	Utah State	Bowling Green*
12/24/2013	Hawaii	MWC 5 vs. C-USA 2	San Jose State	Rice
12/23/2013	Beef O'Brady's (St. Pete.)	AAC 6 vs. C-USA 4	Texas State*	Marshall
12/21/2013	Idaho Potato (Boise)	MAC 3 vs. MWC 6	Buffalo	Colorado State
12/21/2013	Las Vegas	MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 5	Boise State	UCLA
12/21/2013	New Mexico (Albuquerque)	MWC 4 vs. Pac-12 7	UNLV	Oregon State
12/21/2013	New Orleans	Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA 6	UL Lafayette	Tulane

*: Taking another conference's unfilled slot.

**: Already accepted bid.

Bold: Moving up, so to speak.

Italics: Moving down, so to speak.

BCS bowls

If No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State keep their rankings until bowl season, the Sugar Bowl gets the first at-large pick. It will stick to the SEC, meaning the choice will likely be Auburn, Missouri, South Carolina, or Texas A&M.

Since Mizzou or Carolina will likely have just lost a postseason game away from home to Alabama, that means Auburn or A&M. Do you take a shockingly 10-win Tigers team that will buy up every Superdome seat in an instant, or do you take the Aggies, who'll also load up New Orleans and can offer Johnny Manziel's (probable) last game as a college football player? Right now, Auburn's the better bet to finish within the top-14 threshold, but keep an eye on A&M.

The Orange then gets the next two picks, by virtue of having the first at-large slot this year. Clemson's one obvious choice, since the Orange's ACC ties are only strengthening heading into the College Football Playoff, but the other isn't so easy. Since only two teams per conference can go to the BCS, it's looking like it should come down to Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Stanford, UCLA, or Wisconsin.

Even though the underrated No. 22 Badgers [update: now No. 19 and with a potential win against new No. 25 Minnesota up next] have a long way to go to reach No. 14, they'd provide a huge fanbase and an exciting offense, plus their fans would have an easier time getting to Miami than any Pac-12 team would.

The rest of the slots would be locked in. Conference champions would take most of the spots, and UCF would likely be the more desirable pick than Fresno State -- both of those teams are on course to be guaranteed a spot.

However, I'm starting to wonder whether Fresno's tendency toward high-scoring thrillers and its passionate fanbase could make it a better choice than UCF, even though UCF's a better team. What do you think? Especially if it ends up being Auburn, which would give us the nation's best rushing team against one of the best passing teams?

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Your turn

Thoughts? Concerns? Ideas? Anything look especially intriguing to you here?

Two things I'll apologize for right away:

First, UCLA's slotting. I'm not happy with it, but the Pac-12 is heavy at the top, and I think the Bruins lose to Arizona State and at USC to finish out the season.

Also, some teams will likely finish the year bowl-eligible and be left out. There are only 70 bowl slots to go around, and 65 teams are already eligible with three weeks still to go.