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Updated 2013 bowl projections, Week 12: Alabama-FSU, Clemson-Wisconsin and more

Alabama-Florida State remains the BCS National Championship Game pick, while Stanford's fall shuffles the rest of the BCS race ... and impacts the rest of the games, too.

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Did Stanford just fall from the doorstep of the national championship game to out of the BCS entirely? After Saturday's 20-17 upset at the paws of USC and Ed Orgeron, the Cardinal are no longer in line for even the Rose Bowl consolation prize and will now have to scrap with teams like Arizona State, UCLA, and those same Trojans for bowl positioning. That's life.

Elsewhere, the Big Ten gets a boost across the board, while the Pac-12 fallout jams up everything for just about the whole West Coast. Explanations to follow, and let's talk about these things in the comments.

Updated bowl projections after Week 12:

Bowl Matchup (Not always tied to conference standings) Team Team
1/6/2014 BCS National Championship (Pasadena) BCS 1 vs. BCS 2 Alabama Florida State
1/3/2014 Orange (Miami) Florida State replacement vs. At-large 1 Clemson Wisconsin
1/2/2014 Sugar (New Orleans) Alabama replacement vs. At-large 2 Auburn UCF
1/1/2014 Rose (Pasadena) Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1 (At-large 3) Ohio State Oregon
1/1/2014 Fiesta (Glendale, AZ) Big 12 1 vs. At-large 4 Baylor Fresno State
1/5/2014 GoDaddy (Mobile, AL) MAC 2 vs. Sun Belt 2 Ball State Western Kentucky
1/4/2014 BBVA Compass (B'ham) SEC 9 vs. AAC 5 Vanderbilt Rutgers
1/3/2014 Cotton (Arlington) Big 12 2 vs. SEC 3 Oklahoma State Missouri
1/1/2014 Capital One (Orlando) Big Ten 2 vs. SEC 2 Michigan State Texas A&M
1/1/2014 Gator (Jacksonville) Big Ten 4 vs. SEC 6 Minnesota Ole Miss
1/1/2014 Heart of Dallas Big Ten 7 vs. Big 12 8 Arizona* Maryland*
1/1/2014 Outback (Tampa) Big Ten 3 vs. SEC 4 Nebraska LSU
12/31/2013 Chick-fil-A (Atlanta) ACC 2 vs. SEC 5 Virginia Tech South Carolina
12/31/2013 Independence (Shreveport) SEC 10 vs. ACC 7 Utah* Pitt
12/31/2013 Liberty (Memphis) C-USA 1 vs. SEC 8 North Texas Tennessee
12/31/2013 Sun (El Paso) ACC 4 vs. Pac-12 4 Miami Stanford
12/30/2013 Alamo (San Antonio) Big 12 3 vs. Pac-12 2 Oklahoma Arizona State
12/30/2013 Armed Forces (Ft. Worth) MWC 3 vs. C-USA 3/Navy San Diego State Navy**
12/30/2013 Holiday (San Diego) Pac-12 3 vs. Big 12 5 USC Texas Tech
12/30/2013 Music City (Nashville) ACC 6 vs. SEC 7 Boston College Georgia
12/28/2013 Belk (Charlotte) AAC 3 vs. ACC 5 Houston Georgia Tech
12/28/2013 Buffalo Wild Wings (PHX) Big 12 4 vs. Big Ten 5 Texas Michigan
12/28/2013 Pinstripe (New York) Big 12 7 vs. AAC 4 Notre Dame* Cincinnati
12/28/2013 Russell Athletic (Orlando) AAC 2 vs. ACC 3 Louisville Duke
12/27/2013 Kraft (San Francisco) Pac-12 6 vs. BYU/ACC 9 Washington BYU**
12/27/2013 Military (Annapolis) ACC 8 vs. C-USA 5 North Carolina East Carolina
12/27/2013 Texas (Houston) Big 12 6 vs. Big Ten 6 Kansas State Iowa
12/26/2013 Little Caesars (Detroit) MAC 1 vs. Big Ten 8 Northern Illinois Arkansas State*
12/26/2013 Poinsettia (San Diego) MWC 2 vs. Army Utah State Bowling Green*
12/24/2013 Hawaii MWC 5 vs. C-USA 2 San Jose State Rice
12/23/2013 Beef O'Brady's (St. Pete.) AAC 6 vs. C-USA 4 Texas State* Marshall
12/21/2013 Idaho Potato (Boise) MAC 3 vs. MWC 6 Buffalo Colorado State
12/21/2013 Las Vegas MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 5 Boise State UCLA
12/21/2013 New Mexico (Albuquerque) MWC 4 vs. Pac-12 7 UNLV Oregon State
12/21/2013 New Orleans Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA 6 UL Lafayette Tulane

*: Taking another conference's unfilled slot.

**: Already accepted bid.

Bold: Moving up, so to speak.

Italics: Moving down, so to speak.

BCS bowls

If No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State keep their rankings until bowl season, the Sugar Bowl gets the first at-large pick. It will stick to the SEC, meaning the choice will likely be Auburn, Missouri, South Carolina, or Texas A&M.

Since Mizzou or Carolina will likely have just lost a postseason game away from home to Alabama, that means Auburn or A&M. Do you take a shockingly 10-win Tigers team that will buy up every Superdome seat in an instant, or do you take the Aggies, who'll also load up New Orleans and can offer Johnny Manziel's (probable) last game as a college football player? Right now, Auburn's the better bet to finish within the top-14 threshold, but keep an eye on A&M.

The Orange then gets the next two picks, by virtue of having the first at-large slot this year. Clemson's one obvious choice, since the Orange's ACC ties are only strengthening heading into the College Football Playoff, but the other isn't so easy. Since only two teams per conference can go to the BCS, it's looking like it should come down to Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Stanford, UCLA, or Wisconsin.

Even though the underrated No. 22 Badgers [update: now No. 19 and with a potential win against new No. 25 Minnesota up next] have a long way to go to reach No. 14, they'd provide a huge fanbase and an exciting offense, plus their fans would have an easier time getting to Miami than any Pac-12 team would.

The rest of the slots would be locked in. Conference champions would take most of the spots, and UCF would likely be the more desirable pick than Fresno State -- both of those teams are on course to be guaranteed a spot.

However, I'm starting to wonder whether Fresno's tendency toward high-scoring thrillers and its passionate fanbase could make it a better choice than UCF, even though UCF's a better team. What do you think? Especially if it ends up being Auburn, which would give us the nation's best rushing team against one of the best passing teams?

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Your turn

Thoughts? Concerns? Ideas? Anything look especially intriguing to you here?

Two things I'll apologize for right away:

First, UCLA's slotting. I'm not happy with it, but the Pac-12 is heavy at the top, and I think the Bruins lose to Arizona State and at USC to finish out the season.

Also, some teams will likely finish the year bowl-eligible and be left out. There are only 70 bowl slots to go around, and 65 teams are already eligible with three weeks still to go.

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Why that was the year’s best college football weekend

New BCS standings: Baylor stalking Ohio State

Pic: FSU starters playing Hangman during Syracuse blowout

Long CFB reads | Has Baylor crafted the ultimate football offense?