2013 Texas State football's 10 things to know: Year 2's (reasonably) high expectations

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Four years, three conferences.

Texas State was a member of the Southland Conference in 2010 (it went 4-7), an Independent transitioning from FCS to FBS in 2011 (6-6), and a member of the WAC in 2012 (4-8). With the WAC's demise, TXST caught a ride on the Sun Belt bus. Granted, further instability could land the Bobcats in yet another conference soon, but in theory the Sun Belt isn't going anywhere, and Texas State might have the same conference foes for at least two straight years.

2. Dennis Franchione is making upgrades in a hurry.

Of the four FBS newcomers in 2012, Texas State put the most high-quality overall product on the field. UMass ranked 122nd in the 2012 F/+ rankings and went just 1-11, South Alabama ranked 118th and went 2-11, and UTSA ranked 116th and went 6-4 (versus FBS/FCS opponents). Thanks to two tight losses (62-55 to Louisiana Tech at home, 38-31 to UTSA on the road), the Bobcats went just 4-8, but a No. 99 F/+ ranking (just below Washington State, just ahead of Wyoming and Air Force) suggests that they were close to something much better. Texas State couldn't play a lick of defense, and that eventually cost them (as it usually does), but this team had a decent amount of promise. And in the 2013 recruiting class, head coach Dennis Franchione, now in his third season in San Marcos, brought in eight three-star recruits and 10 junior college transfers. He isn't wasting time in his efforts to upgrade this program, and his squad should be expected to compete reasonably well, reasonably quickly, in the Sun Belt.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 99
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
9/1	at Houston	30-13	W	28.8 - 19.5	W
9/8	Texas Tech	10-58	L	21.0 - 40.8	L
9/22	Stephen F. Austin	41-37	W	35.8 - 38.2	L
9/29	Nevada	21-34	L	16.4 - 28.5	L
10/6	at New Mexico	14-35	L	12.6 - 32.4	L
10/13	Idaho	38-7	W	37.3 - 35.6	W
10/27	at San Jose State	20-31	L	28.7 - 33.4	L
11/3	at Utah State	7-38	L	21.3 - 37.4	L
11/10	Louisiana Tech	55-62	L	36.9 - 27.4	W
11/17	at Navy	10-21	L	19.9 - 31.5	L
11/24	at UTSA	31-38	L	24.7 - 40.5	L
12/1	New Mexico State	66-28	W	40.3 - 33.9	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	28.6	67	33.5	100
Adj. Points Per Game	27.0	72	33.3	103

3. That could have gone worse.

If TXST had managed a 3-0 record in one-possession games, the Bobcats could have eked out .500 in their first FBS season. That didn't happen, of course (and it was just as close to 3-9 as 6-6), but between the upset win at Houston to start the season, competitive showings against Nevada, San Jose State and (especially) Louisiana Tech, and easy, systematically destructive wins over Idaho and New Mexico State (combined score: 104-35), Texas State proved it belonged at the low-FBS level and that there wouldn't be any sort of major transition period before they could expect to succeed.

In the end, that's really all you can hope for during the FBS transition. Fans may hope for a Marshall-like transition, but that almost never happens.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
Overall	81	95	94	75
Rushing	46	43	67	27
Passing	95	110	108	107
Standard Downs		66	67	66
Passing Downs		98	114	93
Redzone		36	44	32

Q1 Rk	17	1st Down Rk	73
Q2 Rk	96	2nd Down Rk	105
Q3 Rk	104	3rd Down Rk	91
Q4 Rk	121

4. The gameplans were great.

Texas State had a pretty ferocious first-half offense in 2012. The Bobcats averaged 19.2 points per game in the first half, and averaged 13 points in the first quarter of their four wins. It didn't last, of course; TXST averaged just 9.4 points per game in the second half (6.9 in losses), suggesting that while the attack and intent were pretty good, there was not enough depth or versatility to account for the adjustments defenses were typically able to make as a game went on. The fan in us wants to scream, "They couldn't make halftime adjustments!" when we see something like this; but really, TXST probably just didn't have the horses.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Shaun Rutherford				193	299	2,137	64.5%	15	5	28	8.6%	6.1
Tyler Arndt	6'4, 221	Sr.	*** (5.7)	22	56	208	39.3%	1	3	0	0.0%	3.7
Fred Nixon	6'3, 200	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Shaun Rutherford	QB				140	748	5.3	4.1	5	+0.7
Marcus Curry	RB				113	685	6.1	6.9	10	+10.7
Terrence Franks	RB	5'10, 194	Jr.	NR	64	269	4.2	4.6	5	-4.7
Tim Gay	RB	5'11, 210	So.	** (5.3)	27	279	10.3	9.5	1	+12.1
Isaiah Battle	WR-Z	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	11	68	6.2	13.0	0	+1.3
Tim Hawkins	WR-Z				8	113	14.1	7.3	1	+7.8
Robert Lowe	RB	5'10, 200	So.	*** (5.6)	8	76	9.5	16.3	1	+4.8
Tyler Arndt	QB	6'4, 221	Sr.	*** (5.7)	4	35	8.8	8.0	1	+4.8
C.J. Best	RB	5'10, 195	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Jamel James	RB	5'11, 220	Fr.	*** (5.6)

5. Style did not match strength in 2012.

With Shaun Rutherford and tailback Marcus Curry, Texas State had a pretty impressive pair of ground-gainers in the backfield. Throw in Tim Gay and Terrence Franks, and you had a foursome that combined for 1,981 yards (5.8 per carry) and 21 touchdowns. But in the end, attempted balance actually somewhat hurt Texas State. As you see above, the Bobcats actually passed more than the national average on standard downs, trying to take pressure off of the run game with early-down passing. But opponents caught on and adapted to this pretty quickly, and the passing game struggled mightily for much of the year.

Offensive co-coordinators Mike Schultz and Jeff Conway clearly want balance in their offense, but while that approach almost hurt in 2012, balance might be the only way forward for the Bobcats in 2013. Both Rutherford and Curry are gone, and while the backfield could still be loaded -- Franks and Gay return and are joined by three-star junior college transfer C.J. Best and three-star Jamel James -- it doesn't appear there will be the same run threat from the quarterback position. So a receiving corps that features a few interesting, semi-efficient weapons will need to raise its collective game a bit. And so will senior quarterback Tyler Arndt, or whoever happens to win the starting job.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds./ Tgt
Andy Erickson	WR	5'10, 170	Sr.	** (5.4)	62	39	482	62.9%	19.0%	56.5%	7.9
Isaiah Battle	WR-Z	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	43	26	428	60.5%	13.1%	62.8%	9.7
Chase Harper	TE				33	28	315	84.8%	10.1%	48.5%	9.8
Brandon Smith	WR-X	6'2, 170	So.	** (5.4)	30	21	226	70.0%	9.2%	60.0%	7.5
Marcus Curry	RB				28	19	167	67.9%	8.6%	35.7%	6.7
Jafus Gaines	WR-H	5'11, 170	So.	*** (5.5)	28	14	114	50.0%	8.6%	50.0%	4.0
Bradley Miller	TE	6'5, 221	Jr.	*** (5.5)	25	14	126	56.0%	7.6%	60.0%	5.0
Ben Ijah	WR-Z	6'3, 210	Jr.	NR	24	17	132	70.8%	7.3%	58.3%	5.4
Deche Milburn	WR-H	5'11, 190	Jr.	*** (5.6)	23	18	165	78.3%	7.0%	56.5%	7.1
Terrence Franks	RB	5'10, 194	Jr.	NR	14	10	150	71.4%	4.3%	71.4%	10.8
Tim Hawkins	WR-Z				9	4	45	44.4%	2.8%	44.4%	5.6
Kristofer Petersen	TE	6'4, 235	Jr.	** (5.4)
Lawrence White	TE	6'7, 250	Jr.	** (5.3)
Ryan Carden	TE	6'4, 250	Jr.	** (5.3)
Brice Gunter	WR	6'3, 185	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Demun Mercer	WR	6'2, 185	Fr.	*** (5.5)

6. Andy Erickson is fun.

Like Georgia State with Albert Wilson, Texas State has a lovely receiving-and-returns threat in senior Andy Erickson. The Rice transfer was the steadiest weapon in the passing game, and he was a particularly dangerous punt return man. Senior Isaiah Battle, two three-star freshmen, and three incoming junior college tight ends could assure that defenses cannot key on Erickson; that could be a very good thing for TXST.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.8	3.28	3.70	43.6%	71.4%	15.3%	60.0	9.3%	6.8%
Rank	53	14	19	16	46	12	118	118	68

2012 Two-Deep	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Charlie Will Tuttle	LG	6'2, 293	Jr.	NR	18 career starts
Thaddeus Watkins	RT				18 career starts
Matt Freeman	C	6'2, 279	So.	NR	9 career starts
Adley Eshraghipour	LT				8 career starts
Devin Baker	RT	6'5, 283	Sr.	NR	8 career starts
Zach Crawford	RG	6'2, 298	So.	NR	5 career starts
Mike Yoder	RG	6'5, 297	Sr.	** (5.3)	5 career starts
Colin Fissell	C	6'2, 289	Jr.	NR	4 career starts
Tyler Potter	RG	6'4, 300	Sr.	** (5.3)	1 career start
Adrian Bellard	LT	6'5, 310	So.	*** (5.5)
Brandon Serabia	OL	6'4, 300	Jr.	** (5.4)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
Overall	119	91	95	92
Rushing	120	107	99	108
Passing	93	85	90	85
Standard Downs		91	95	90
Passing Downs		93	90	95
Redzone		63	70	67

Q1 Rk	118	1st Down Rk	81
Q2 Rk	99	2nd Down Rk	98
Q3 Rk	94	3rd Down Rk	60
Q4 Rk	31

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87.7	3.48	3.51	48.2%	70.4%	15.4%	42.4	1.1%	2.7%
Rank	114	121	91	124	82	108	121	124	119

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Blake McColloch	NT	6'5, 271	Sr.	NR	12	23.5	3.4%	6.5	2.0	0	2	2	2
Jamie Clavell-Head	DE	6'3, 277	Sr.	NR	12	20.0	2.9%	1.0	0.0	2	1	0	0
Kamu Taulelei	DT	6'1, 276	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	19.5	2.8%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Jordan Norfleet	DE	6'2, 241	Sr.	NR	12	17.0	2.5%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	2
Tylond Robertson	DE	6'3, 242	So.	*** (5.5)	11	15.0	2.2%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Ward	DE				12	14.0	2.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	1
Deshun Williams	DT	5'11, 299	Sr.	NR	10	11.0	1.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Hood	NT	6'0, 285	So.	NR	10	9.0	1.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Thomas Evans	DE	6'4, 245	Sr.	*** (5.5)	10	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Yendrey (2011)	DT	6'4, 273	Sr.	** (5.3)	13	28.0	3.9%	5.5	3.0	0	0	0	2
Donald Hopkins	DT	6'2, 285	So.	*** (5.7)
Kingsley Ike	DE	6'4, 230	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Marcus Dallas, Jr.	DE	6'4, 245	Jr.	** (5.4)

7. Texas State's defensive line logged 2.5 sacks in 2012.

That's really, really bad. It is quite possible that Texas State had the worst pass rush in the country last season, and with the departure of linebacker Joplo Bartu, the Bobcats must replace the only player on the roster who took down the quarterback more than twice. And unlike the secondary, the front six (TXST runs a 4-2-5) was not supplemented significantly by recruiting; improvement depends, in part, on three transfers: D.J. Yendrey (from TCU), Donald Hopkins (from Houston) and Kingsley Ike (from Purdue). A fourth transfer (Mike Orakpo from Colorado State; and yes, Franchione is taking a chance on both a player involved in last year's TCU arrests and Orakpo, who was kicked out of CSU for his role in a fight) should contribute immediately at linebacker. The front line absolutely has to figure out how to be more disruptive if the newly plumped secondary is going to succeed to any certain degree.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Joplo Bartu	MIKE				12	78.0	11.3%	12.0	5.5	0	1	1	1
David Mayo	SAM	6'2, 228	Sr.	** (5.4)	7	31.5	4.6%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	1
Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon	MIKE	6'0, 218	So.	*** (5.5)	12	29.5	4.3%	2.0	0.0	1	0	0	1
Damion McMiller	SAM	6'3, 230	Sr.	** (5.3)	11	25.0	3.6%	2.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Brian Lilly	SAM				11	22.0	3.2%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Drew Hamilton	LB	6'0, 215	Jr.	NR	12	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mike Orakpo (2011)	LB	6'1, 225	Jr.	** (4.9)	12	67.0	10.1%	3.0	0.0	1	1	0	0

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jason McLean	S				11	58.0	8.4%	2.0	0.0	0	6	1	0
Xavier Daniels	FS	6'0, 168	Sr.	NR	12	54.0	7.8%	0.0	0.0	0	5	1	1
Darryl Morris	CB				12	53.5	7.8%	2.0	0.0	4	5	0	0
Craig Mager	CB	5'11, 191	Jr.	NR	12	44.0	6.4%	1.0	0.0	4	8	0	0
Justin Iwuji	WS	5'11, 201	Sr.	NR	12	34.5	5.0%	3.0	0.0	1	1	1	1
Phillip Benning	WS	6'0, 175	Sr.	NR	11	28.5	4.1%	2.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Chad Moncure	S	6'0, 189	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	18.5	2.7%	2.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Tyler Chase	FS	5'10, 186	Jr.	NR	12	15.5	2.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Colby Targun	S	5'11, 190	Jr.	** (5.4)	10	13.5	2.0%	1.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Zach Velliquette	CB	5'10, 183	Sr.	NR	11	7.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Albritton	DB	5'11, 185	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Martel Summers	DB	6'1, 190	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Brandon Jones	DB	6'2, 210	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Trey Garrett	DB	6'0, 200	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Donta Clanton	DB	5'10, 195	Jr.	** (5.3)
Dila Rosemond	DB	5'10, 180	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Germod Williams	DB	5'11, 185	Fr.	*** (5.5)

8. Dennis Franchione signed a ton of defensive backs.

Seven members of the 22-man recruiting class are defensive backs (assuming star freshman Dila Rosemond ends up in the secondary as planned), and three are junior college transfers. This pretty clearly suggests that Franchione and company were unhappy with the play of the five-man secondary last year. I struggle with this a bit -- if your pass rush is entirely nonexistent, your secondary is behind the 8-ball before we can even find out if it's any good; regardless, one should assume that Franchione now has the warm bodies available to maximize the speed the 4-2-5 emphasizes.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Zach Robinson	6'3, 185	Sr.	26	46.2	0	7	13	76.9%
Will Johnson	6'3, 192	Jr.	22	41.0	0	11	9	90.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Will Johnson	6'3, 192	Jr.	37	63.8	20	54.1%
Jason Dann	6'0, 175	Jr.	27	61.7	10	37.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Will Johnson	6'3, 192	Jr.	43-44	7-9	77.8%	5-8	62.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jafus Gaines	KR	5'11, 170	So.	28	28.9	0
Isaiah Battle	KR	5'11, 190	Sr.	12	17.8	0
Andy Erickson	KR	5'10, 170	Sr.	7	26.3	0
Andy Erickson	PR	5'10, 170	Sr.	17	16.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	14
Net Punting	16
Net Kickoffs	28
Touchback Pct	8
Field Goal Pct	105
Kick Returns Avg	87
Punt Returns Avg	15

9. Special teams are special.

The special teams unit is incredibly variable from year to year, but one would assume that a Texas State unit that ranked 14th and returns both punters, its place-kicker, a good kickoffs guy and explosive returners in Andy Erickson and Jafus Gaines, should once again be a strength.

2013 Schedule, Summary and Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
8/31	at Southern Miss	86
9/7	Prairie View A&M	NR
9/21	at Texas Tech	45
9/28	Wyoming	105
11/2	at Idaho	121
?	Arkansas State	61
?	Georgia State	125
?	South Alabama	118
?	Troy	101
?	UL-Lafayette	73
?	UL-Monroe	82
?	Western Kentucky	94

Five-Year F/+ Rk	105
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	104
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+10 / +7.6
TO Luck/Game	+1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-1.2

10. Texas State might make a run at a bowl in 2013.

We don't yet know what the home-road splits will be in the Sun Belt schedule, and that could make a pretty big difference for Texas State. But with winnable non-conference home games versus Prairie View A&M and Wyoming, a winnable road trip to Idaho (and, in theory, Southern Miss), and three conference games versus teams projected 100th or worse, Texas State has a reasonable path toward six wins if the Bobcats can once again put a Top 100 product on the field. If the special teams unit takes a negative turn, the quarterback situation is not resolved, and the enhancements to the defensive personnel don't immediately take, however, a second-year regression isn't out of the question.

Texas State's first year at the FBS level went about as well as could have been reasonably expected; the Bobcats have some questions to answer in year two, but the ceiling is reasonably high.

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