2013 Troy football's 10 things to know: Train keeps a-rollin'

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Larry Blakeney keeps chugging right along

Two years ago in my 2011 Troy preview, I fawned a bit over Troy head coach Larry Blakeney:

He just celebrated 20 years as Troy's head coach. When he took over the Trojans, they were a Division II independent. He helped to transition them to the 1-AA level and won three Southland Conference titles, making the 1-AA playoffs seven times in their nine years at the level (and in the first year, they went 10-1 but weren't eligible for the playoffs).

After less than a decade at 1-AA, Blakeney helped to transition the Trojans to the 1-A level ... and he has won or shared five consecutive Sun Belt titles. Despite all the transition, despite all the movement, Blakeney has won 161 games, including at least eight in each of the last five years.

To put it another way, Blakeney won the All-American Football Foundation's Johnny Vaught Lifetime Achievement Award in 2000 ... before he had even accomplished anything at the 1-A/FBS level. Since then, he's one-upped himself.

Blakeney is a tireless recruiter and brilliant representative of this small school in southern Alabama. (That he has one of the most beautiful Southern drawls imaginable is just a bonus.) He has won games, he has produced 18 NFL draft picks in his 20 years (four in the first or second round), and now he has potentially his most talented offensive player lining up for him for another two to three seasons. There is a lot to celebrate about Blakeney's career, one that has not even begun to approach the homestretch yet.

And then Troy went out and fell apart. The Trojans went 3-9 in 2011 and were four points from 1-11. After managing an average F/+ ranking of 54.5 from 2007-10, they fell to 107th in 2011. My 2012 preview, then, took on a different tone. Was this the end for Blakeney, or was a bounceback likely?

2. You can bounce back.

The record only improved a little bit (two games), but in 2012 Troy's on-field product improved rather dramatically considering all that went wrong the year before.

Suddenly, Troy could move the ball again. Quarterback Corey Robinson cut down on his mistakes, the run game improved from 110th in Rushing S&P+ to 67th, and while the defense was still rather vulnerable to big plays, it was quite a bit more efficient and aggressive. Without making a series of panic moves, Blakeney was able to navigate a solid level of improvement in an improving Sun Belt conference. For fans clamoring for mass firings at their school of choice because of one bad season, this should probably serve as a nice teaching point.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 8-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 78
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	at UAB	39-29	W	31.7 - 29.1	W
8-Sep	UL-Lafayette	24-37	L	27.1 - 23.7	W
15-Sep	Mississippi State	24-30	L	38.3 - 31.4	W
22-Sep	at North Texas	14-7	W	20.6 - 30.2	L
29-Sep	at South Alabama	31-10	W	35.7 - 21.4	W
11-Oct	Western Kentucky	26-31	L	28.9 - 26.6	W
20-Oct	Florida International	38-37	W	26.1 - 34.9	L
27-Oct	at Florida Atlantic	27-34	L	23.2 - 32.3	L
3-Nov	at Tennessee	48-55	L	34.9 - 44.3	L
10-Nov	Navy	41-31	W	39.0 - 34.9	W
17-Nov	Arkansas State	34-41	L	44.2 - 31.0	W
24-Nov	at Middle Tennessee	21-24	L	22.0 - 14.7	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	30.6	52	30.5	83
Adj. Points Per Game	31.0	43	29.5	78

3. Close games can break you.

Troy ranked 78th in the F/+ rankings, virtually even with Western Kentucky and ULM and 18 spots ahead of a Middle Tennessee team that finished 9-3. So how exactly did the Trojans finish 5-7 and miss a bowl for the second straight year?

They couldn't closet. They lost by seven to Tennessee, Arkansas State and Florida Atlantic, six to Mississippi State, five to Western Kentucky and three to Middle Tennessee. In all, they were 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less, 1-4 in such games in conference play. Simply improving to 3-4 in such games would have probably earned Troy a bowl bid (then again, Middle Tennessee didn't get one at 8-4) and cast an entirely different impression on the 2012 season.

Now, make no mistake: Troy shouldn't have lost to Florida Atlantic. At the very least, that inexcusable loss kept them from reaching bowl eligibility. In that game, Troy allowed FAU to jump out to a 17-0 lead, then score the winning touchdown with 17 seconds left. There was plenty of blame to go around in this series of close loses, especially considering this was a pretty experienced team. Still, according to the data below, Troy was hindered by about 3.5 points per game of bad turnover luck, and if the Trojans had gotten a second chance at this 12-game slate, they very well could have finished 8-4 or better. This was a decent team, one that resembled 2007-10 Troy a lot more than 2011 Troy.

One problem: It was an experienced team, and now it has some holes to fill.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	11	62	51	64
RUSHING	57	67	51	76
PASSING	8	62	53	68
Standard Downs		71	57	76
Passing Downs		50	49	48
Redzone		103	94	107

Q1 Rk	82	1st Down Rk	57
Q2 Rk	61	2nd Down Rk	86
Q3 Rk	65	3rd Down Rk	36
Q4 Rk	37

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Corey Robinson	6'2, 209	Sr.	** (5.2)	257	389	3,121	66.1%	12	9	9	2.3%	7.7
Deon Anthony	6'0, 214	Sr.	*** (5.5)	79	113	856	69.9%	9	3	6	5.0%	6.9
Dallas Tidwell	6'7, 223	So.	** (5.4)	0	3	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0

4. Troy is loaded behind center.

As a sophomore, Corey Robinson was exciting and reckless. He threw for more than 3,400 yards, completed 21 touchdown passes ... and threw 15 interceptions and took 20 sacks. His junior season, however, was pretty much the blueprint for year-to-year improvement. In 2012, Robinson improved his completion percentage from 62 percent to 66, cut his interception rate from 3.0 percent to 2.3 percent, improved his sack rate (with obvious help from his line) from 3.8 percent to 2.3 percent, and improved his per-attempt pass yardage by 26 percent, from 6.1 yards to 7.7. That is fantastic.

He did have help, of course. An improved (and more frequent) run game took quite a bit of pressure off of his shoulders, and a line that entered the season with only one multi-year starter held up nicely. Still, a lot of Robinson's improvement can be credited directly to Robinson.

But Troy isn't "loaded behind center" simply because of Robinson. The Trojans actually enter 2013 with two interesting senior quarterbacks; Deon Anthony carved out a nice role as a run-first, change-of-pace guy. He was second on the team in rushing and actually completed a higher percentage of (shorter) passes than Robinson. That towering sophomore Dallas Tidwell is still a third-stringer heading into his sophomore season is a very good sign about Troy's overall depth.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Shawn Southward	RB				194	1,012	5.2	4.8	10	+0.2
Deon Anthony	QB	6'0, 214	Sr.	*** (5.5)	76	422	5.6	5.0	8	+8.4
Justin Albert	WR				70	303	4.3	4.6	2	-3.9
D.J. Taylor	RB				64	259	4.0	1.9	1	-4.7
Corey Robinson	QB	6'2, 209	Sr.	** (5.2)	12	20	1.7	3.7	1	-3.6
Chandler Worthy	WR	5'9, 159	Jr.	** (5.2)	11	79	7.2	5.0	0	+2.4
Khary Franklin	RB	5'8, 168	Sr.	*** (5.5)	3	23	7.7	3.3	0	+1.0
Tim Longmire	RB	6'0, 195	Fr.	*** (5.5)						!
Jordan Chunn	RB	6'0, 211	Fr.	** (5.4)
Julius McCall	RB	5'9, 161	Fr.	** (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Chip Reeves	WR				104	65	1050	62.5%	10.1	21.4%	72.1%	10.7	120.4
Eric Thomas	WR	6'1, 209	Sr.	*** (5.5)	86	55	667	64.0%	7.8	17.7%	65.1%	7.7	76.5
Chandler Worthy	WR	5'9, 159	Jr.	** (5.2)	57	46	544	80.7%	9.5	11.8%	64.9%	9.5	62.4
Jaquon Robinson	WR				56	30	405	53.6%	7.2	11.5%	62.5%	7.3	46.4
Corey Johnson (2011)	WR	6'0, 186	Sr.	*** (5.7)	58	43	440	74.1%	7.6	11.5%	63.8%	N/A	N/A
Shawn Southward	RB				55	43	362	78.2%	6.6	11.3%	60.0%	6.6	41.5
Justin Albert	WR				42	31	250	73.8%	6.0	8.7%	57.1%	6.0	28.7
B.J. Chitty	WR	6'2, 197	Jr.	*** (5.6)	27	20	222	74.1%	8.2	5.6%	81.5%	7.5	25.5
D.J. Taylor	RB				20	17	145	85.0%	7.3	4.1%	30.0%	6.4	16.6
Chris Williams	WR	5'11, 183	Sr.	NR	10	8	127	80.0%	12.7	2.1%	60.0%	12.7	14.6
K.D. Edenfield	WR	6'0, 184	So.	NR	7	6	62	85.7%	8.9	1.4%	85.7%	9.8	7.1
Jarod Lee	RB	6'0, 232	Sr.	NR	6	6	63	100.0%	10.5	1.2%	83.3%	10.1	7.2
Brandon Brooks	WR	6'0, 185	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Bobby Walker	WR	6'0, 166	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Antonio Johnson	WR	6'1, 201	Jr.	** (5.2)
Clark Quisenberry	WR	6'3, 205	Fr.	** (5.4)

5. Mr. Robinson (and Mr. Anthony), meet your new arsenal.

While Robinson's improvement was obvious, he got a lot of help from a corps of skill position players quite a bit deeper than your normal mid-major. Running back Shawn Southward was steady and solid after a poor junior season, and a deep receiving corps saw six players targeted at least 40 times. Senior Chip Reeves, who missed 2011 with academic problems, returned and thrived in the No. 1 spot.

The obvious problem for 2013: Southward is gone, as is primary backup D.J. Taylor, and four of those six high-volume targets have also used up their eligibility. The leading returning running back, Khary Franklin, carried three times last year, and while receivers Eric Thomas, Chandler Worthy and B.J. Chitty were all relatively proficient last year, they were used mostly in efficiency roles. The same goes for Corey Johnson, who filled a similar role in 2011 before missing 2012 with injury. Reeves was the big-play guy and will be missed.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.8	2.90	3.58	40.3%	53.2%	17.4%	146.6	1.9%	4.6%
Rank	75	76	27	48	118	37	24	15	32

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Kyle Wilborn	C				47 career starts, 2012 1st All-Sun Belt
Jarred Fleming	LT				20 career starts
Terrence Jones	RT	6'3, 306	Jr.	** (5.3)	17 career starts
Cody Woodiel	LG				12 career starts
Zach Johnson	RG	6'3, 320	Jr.	*** (5.5)	8 career starts
Andrew Phillips	LG				7 career starts
Jimmie Arnold	RG	6'1, 276	Sr.	** (4.9)	5 career starts
Tyler Lassiter	LT	6'5, 298	So.	** (5.3)
Caleb Carbine	LG	6'1, 271	Jr.	NR
Dalton Bennett	RT	6'3, 293	So.	** (5.4)
Taylor Edwards	OL	6'4, 290	Fr.	** (5.4)
Xavier Fields	OL	6'4, 345	Fr.	** (5.4)
David Gross	OL	6'6, 295	Fr.	** (5.4)

6. The line loses a lot.

Last year's Troy line returned only one player with more than eight career starts, but there were still quite a few juniors and seniors involved. In 2013, the Troy line is quite a bit thinner in the experience department. Terrence Jones has been a starter for most of two years, but the line's 30 career starts will be one of the lower numbers in the country this year. Throw in a new offensive line coach (Jim Dye), and you've got a huge wildcard for 2013.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	96	76	42	90
RUSHING	82	68	61	80
PASSING	94	73	32	89
Standard Downs		87	46	97
Passing Downs		66	44	73
Redzone		73	38	103

Q1 Rk	103	1st Down Rk	88
Q2 Rk	81	2nd Down Rk	60
Q3 Rk	55	3rd Down Rk	48
Q4 Rk	40

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.9	3.01	2.63	35.7%	68.3%	19.1%	68.4	2.5%	3.8%
Rank	65	80	17	27	64	68	107	112	107

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tony Davis	DE				12	34.0	4.8%	9	3	0	1	2	1
Tyler Roberts	BAN	6'1, 215	So.	** (5.4)	12	30.0	4.3%	6.5	2	0	0	1	0
Kyle Lucas	DE				12	22.5	3.2%	4	1	0	0	1	0
Marty Stadom	DE	6'1, 237	Sr.	** (5.4)	12	18.5	2.6%	4	2	0	0	0	0
Jacoby Thomas	BAN				11	17.5	2.5%	4	2	0	2	0	1
Derrek Upshaw	DT	6'2, 287	Sr.	** (5.2)	12	13.5	1.9%	2.5	1	0	1	0	1
Shermane TeArt	DT	6'1, 279	Sr.	** (4.9)	5	8.5	1.2%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Williams	DT	6'4, 270	Sr.	** (5.2)	11	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Xavier Melton	DT	6'3, 310	Sr.	** (5.3)	12	5.5	0.8%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Lonnie Gosha (2011)	DT	6'2, 277	So.	*** (5.7)	4	4.5	0.6%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Deon Lee	DE	6'3, 233	So.	*** (5.6)	3	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Johnson	DT	6'3, 294	So.	** (5.2)
Arie Anderson	DT	6'1, 275	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Bryan Slater	DE	6'1, 268	Fr.	** (5.4)
Taylor Driggers	DE	6'2, 255	Fr.	** (5.4)

7. A remade defensive line held up (against the run, at least).

Only two of Troy's top eight defensive linemen returned from 2011, but a mix of junior college transfers and returnees combined to ensure there wasn't an extreme drop-off. Well, sort of. The line was stellar at hemming in run plays, but only one lineman managed more than two sacks, and considering a passive linebacking corps, one built more for run support and pass coverage than blitzing, didn't generate any sort of consistent pressure. When you add Arkansas transfer Lonnie Gosha and some interesting freshmen, you see a pretty solid, interesting line. But without its star (Tony Davis), it's hard to imagine the pass rush somehow improving.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kanorris Davis	SLB				11	76.5	10.9%	3	0	0	1	2	1
Brannon Bryan	MLB				12	67.5	9.6%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Mark Wilson	WLB	6'0, 234	Jr.	*** (5.6)	10	40.0	5.7%	2	0	0	1	0	1
Dimitri Miles	WLB	6'1, 209	Jr.	NR	12	39.0	5.6%	2	1	0	1	0	1
De'Von Terry	SLB				12	31.0	4.4%	0	0	1	2	0	2
Eli Canton	MLB	6'1, 238	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Shaq Beverly	SLB	5'8, 200	So.	*** (5.5)	8	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wayland Coleman-Dancer	WLB	6'0, 203	Sr.	** (5.3)
Brach Bessant	MLB	6'1, 246	Jr.	** (5.3)
Sam Lebbie	LB	6'2, 240	Fr.	*** (5.6)

8. Who gets in the way?

Troy's defense was confusing in 2013. Solid success rates combined with poor PPP (explosiveness) figures usually suggests a defense that takes risks, racks up the tackles for loss, and gives up a lot of big plays in the process. Instead, Troy made almost no disruptive plays whatsoever but still made a lot of stops short of the first-down marker ... and allowed a lot of big plays. Without Tony Davis, Troy might need a stripped-down linebacking corps to do a little more in the disruption department. Can it?

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brynden Trawick	S				12	68.5	9.8%	5.5	0	3	4	0	0
Chris Pickett	S	5'11, 200	Sr.	** (5.2)	11	53.5	7.6%	0.5	0	0	2	3	0
Camren Hudson	S	5'10, 195	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	41.5	5.9%	1	0	0	1	2	2
Zach Miller	CB	5'9, 175	Sr.	** (5.3)	12	27.0	3.8%	0	0	0	4	2	0
Bryan Willis	CB				10	20.5	2.9%	0	0	1	6	0	1
T.J. Bryant	CB				10	19.5	2.8%	1	0	0	3	0	2
Chris Davis	CB	5'8, 161	So.	** (5.2)	12	17.5	2.5%	1	0	0	5	0	0
Barry Valcin	S				5	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Montres Kitchens	S	5'11, 172	So.	** (5.2)	11	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ethan Davis	CB	5'10, 177	Jr.	** (5.2)	6	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dionte Ponder	CB	5'11, 172	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Joe Lofton	S	6'0, 186	So.	** (5.2)
Keoin Payne	DB	5'10, 175	Jr.	** (5.2)
Dondrell Harris	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	** (5.4)
Jevius Terry	DB	5'9, 160	Fr.	** (5.4)
Montavious Smoke	DB	6'1, 182	Fr.	** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Will Scott	5'11, 192	Sr.	54	41.0	2	9	18	50.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Jed Solomon	5'7, 152	So.	41	57.5	11	26.8%
Will Scott	5'11, 192	Sr.	30	61.1	12	40.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Will Scott	5'11, 192	Sr.	40-42	12-14	85.7%	5-7	71.4%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Chandler Worthy	KR	5'9, 159	Jr.	23	22.0	0
Daron White	KR	5'9, 176	So.	8	15.9	0
Zach Miller	KR	5'9, 175	Sr.	3	16.7	0
Justin Albert	PR			18	7.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	81
Net Punting	45
Net Kickoffs	25
Touchback Pct	76
Field Goal Pct	23
Kick Returns Avg	112
Punt Returns Avg	74

9. Nice legs

This was a hit-or-miss special teams unit in 2012. The return game was pretty iffy, but the legs were strong. Will Scott made five of seven field goals over 40 yards, booted a high number of touchbacks, and prevented returns in the punting game. Scott returns, so at worst this unit shouldn't be any worse than last year's. We'll see if the return game improves.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	UAB	105
7-Sep	Savannah State	NR
21-Sep	at Mississippi State	51
16-Nov	at Ole Miss	29
?	at Duke	77
?	Arkansas State	64
?	Georgia State	125
?	South Alabama	119
?	Texas State	107
?	UL-Lafayette	78
?	UL-Monroe	86
?	Western Kentucky	94

Five-Year F/+ Rk	74
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	93
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-6 / +2.5
TO Luck/Game	-3.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (5, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+1.8

10. Was 2012 a wasted opportunity?

Troy improved significantly in 2012, especially on the offensive side of the ball. But as with 2011, the Trojans are now facing a serious rebuilding job among the skill positions, and the offensive line is green. And on defense, Troy must replace its best lineman, two best linebackers and best safety. Even if Troy's awful 2012 luck turns around, will it matter, or will it simply offset another dropoff in overall product?

Larry Blakeney didn't dip heavily into the JUCO pool with his 2013 recruiting class, which at least indirectly suggests he's not too tremendously worried about his talent pool at hand. But in 2013, a relatively young Troy squad will have to figure out how to both tread water in terms of production and close games better if the Trojans are to avoid a three-year no-bowl streak. A diluted Sun Belt could help, but Troy still has a lot of questions to answer.

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