2013 Western Kentucky football's 10 things to know: Bobby Petrino's stocked toybox

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Hello, Coach Petrino.

This winter, watching the Bobby Petrino Sweepstakes, I learned something about myself. Granted, it was probably something I already knew to some degree, but it was very much affirmed: I treat major-conference teams and mid-majors completely differently.

When Petrino, who was fired from Arkansas after lying about the circumstances surrounding a motorcycle accident (to put it as blandly as possible), was being courted by any number of schools after sitting out the 2012 season, I felt very different about his candidacy at Auburn than I did at Arkansas State or, eventually, Western Kentucky. I felt he needed to pay his dues again at the mid-major level, as some sort of atonement process or something; getting hired by Auburn would be receiving a shortcut he didn't deserve, but taking a Sun Belt job, even if just for a year, was perfectly acceptable. It doesn't make a lot of sense, really -- his atonement already consisted of humiliation, a damaged marriage, loss of a mega-salary and a job at which he was nearly worshipped; but the brain is an odd place sometimes.

I'd have hated Auburn hiring him; I loved Western Kentucky hiring him.

Simply put, Bobby Petrino wins games. In his eight years as an FBS head coach, he has won at least eight games seven times, and he has won at least 10 four times. Despite his open, public flirtation with other schools, he continued to win games at Louisville (41 in four seasons), and while public goodwill may have eroded with the way he left both the Louisville and Atlanta Falcons jobs, Arkansas fans probably didn't care much about that when he went 8-5 in 2009, 10-3 in 2010 and 11-2 in 2011. The guy is a guru for college quarterbacks, and while defense has never been an extreme strong suit, a) his defense is typically good enough to get out of the offense's way, and b) he still maximizes talent like few coaches can. He never reeled in elite recruiting classes at Louisville or Arkansas, but he continuously produced high-level offensive talent.

Because of this, he really is a lovely hire for WKU, even if he leaves for the first SEC offer that comes his way (perhaps as soon as December). Even if he just stays for one year, he will probably win games and serve as a positive influence on WKU quarterbacks. When you hire Petrino, you better have a backup plan in place (and WKU has at least 10 months to figure that one out), but he can still be a tremendous success in the short-term.

2. Okay, one more time, and then we move on.

3. Arkansas Lite.

At WKU, Petrino inherits offensive personnel that, in terms of the eyeball test, should seem awfully familiar.

In towering quarterback James Mauro, he has what looks (physically) like a Ryan Mallett clone. In running back Antonio Andrews, he has a big, strong, exciting back not unlike pre-injury Knile Davis. And while his receiving corps is rather small in stature, its potential depth could bring to mind the absurdly deep 2011 Arkansas receiving corps that featured Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, Chris Gragg, Cobi Hamilton, Greg Childs and numerous good-hands running backs. Former head coach Willie Taggart was a run-first-then-throw-to-the-tight-ends kind of guy, but the transition from Taggart's system to Petrino's might actually go surprisingly well.

(Granted, I said the same thing when Mike Leach went to Washington State, so you probably shouldn't take this to the bank. But still.)

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 69
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Austin Peay	49-10	W	36.0 - 20.7	W
8-Sep	at Alabama	0-31	L	21.3 - 25.1	L
15-Sep	at Kentucky	32-31	W	21.1 - 29.2	L
22-Sep	Southern Miss	42-17	W	37.2 - 32.5	W
29-Sep	at Arkansas State	26-13	W	36.1 - 13.9	W
11-Oct	at Troy	31-26	W	27.1 - 23.5	W
20-Oct	UL-Monroe	42-43	L	26.3 - 31.2	L
27-Oct	at Florida International	14-6	W	22.8 - 23.6	L
1-Nov	Middle Tennessee	29-34	L	36.2 - 26.4	W
10-Nov	Florida Atlantic	28-37	L	18.8 - 27.7	L
17-Nov	at UL-Lafayette	27-31	L	35.0 - 41.0	L
24-Nov	North Texas	25-24	W	26.9 - 22.0	W
26-Dec	vs. Central Michigan	21-24	L	24.8 - 27.5	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	28.2	70	25.5	51
Adj. Points Per Game	28.4	62	26.5	51

4. What could have been.

The future could be awfully bright for WKU, especially if Petrino stays for a period longer than that of a Redbox rental, but there still have to be at least a few pangs of regret in Bowling Green about the way the 2012 season ended. Never mind that the Hilltoppers lost a tremendous head coach at season's end (former WKU quarterback Willie Taggart inherited a program that had lost 22 of 24 games and crafted back-to-back 7-5 seasons in 2011-12); before that even happened, WKU had already suffered through a crushing series of missed opportunities.

With road wins over Arkansas State and Troy, the Hilltoppers had become the slam-dunk Sun Belt favorite heading into mid-October. But a crushing home loss to UL-Monroe set the table for a late-season slide. WKU led ULM, 28-7, late in the second quarter, but the Warhawks scored a 30-yard touchdown with no time left in the first half, scored a 12-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left in the second half, then went for two and the win, and got it, in the game's first overtime period to hand WKU a shocking 43-42 loss. WKU would end up losing five of seven to end the season.

Adj. Points Per Game (First 6 games): Western Kentucky 29.8, Opponent 24.2 (plus-5.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (Last 7 games): Opponent 28.5, Western Kentucky 27.3 (minus-1.2)

The offense regressed a little, the defense regressed a lot, and what looked like a potential 11-1 season turned into a disappointing 7-5.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	75	71	81	67
RUSHING	44	73	98	59
PASSING	92	67	60	70
Standard Downs		60	81	50
Passing Downs		92	79	97
Redzone		60	88	31

Q1 Rk	64	1st Down Rk	77
Q2 Rk	79	2nd Down Rk	59
Q3 Rk	64	3rd Down Rk	81
Q4 Rk	92

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Kawaun Jakes				200	312	2,488	64.1%	22	11	23	6.9%	7.0
James Mauro	6'7, 227	So.	** (5.2)	12	18	172	66.7%	2	1	0	0.0%	9.6
Brandon Doughty	6'3, 196	Jr.	*** (5.5)	1	3	7	33.3%	0	0	0	0.0%	2.3
DaMarcus Smith	6'1, 180	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Todd Porter	6'3, 180	Fr.	** (5.4)

5. You're welcome, James Mauro.

I mean, of all the people excited about the Petrino hire, Mauro would have to be No. 1, right? Well, Mauro or whoever wins the starting job? (Three other quarterbacks, including one-time Louisville commit DaMarcus Smith, all came to town with a higher recruiting profile than Mauro.)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Antonio Andrews	RB	6'0, 211	Sr.	*** (5.5)	304	1,733	5.7	5.3	11	+20.9
Leon Allen	RB	6'0, 235	So.	** (5.4)	56	317	5.7	8.3	2	+4.1
Kawaun Jakes	QB				43	211	4.9	3.7	3	+1.4
Keshawn Simpson	RB	6'0, 237	Sr.	** (5.0)	20	101	5.1	6.3	1	-0.9
Kadeem Jones	FB	5'11, 246	Sr.	** (5.3)	17	84	4.9	10.4	3	+0.0
Marquis Sumler	RB	5'9, 175	So.	*** (5.5)	16	59	3.7	1.6	0	-3.0
Ben Axon	RB	6'2, 195	Sr.	**** (5.8)	8	34	4.3	10.5	0	-1.0
Anthony Wales	RB	5'9, 183	RSFr.	*** (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Willie McNeal	WR	5'10, 163	Jr.	** (4.9)	74	43	556	58.1%	7.5	23.4%	52.7%	7.5	76.8
Jack Doyle	TE				73	53	566	72.6%	7.8	23.1%	54.8%	7.8	78.2
Antonio Andrews	RB	6'0, 211	Sr.	*** (5.5)	51	37	432	72.5%	8.5	16.1%	49.0%	9.1	59.7
Mitchell Henry	TE	6'4, 245	Jr.	*** (5.5)	23	13	195	56.5%	8.5	7.3%	60.9%	8.5	26.9
Kadeem Jones	FB	5'11, 246	Sr.	** (5.3)	22	14	180	63.6%	8.2	7.0%	68.2%	8.3	24.9
Rico Brown	WR	5'11, 185	Jr.	** (5.4)	20	13	194	65.0%	9.7	6.3%	40.0%	11.1	26.8
Austin Aikens	WR	5'11, 180	So.	*** (5.6)	13	8	217	61.5%	16.7	4.1%	92.3%	10.9	30.0
Boe Brand	WR	6'0, 156	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	12	151	92.3%	11.6	4.1%	38.5%	12.0	20.9
Marcus Vasquez	WR				13	12	102	92.3%	7.8	4.1%	61.5%	7.8	14.1
Tim Gorski	TE	6'7, 253	So.	** (5.4)	4	1	15	25.0%	3.8	1.3%	75.0%	3.0	2.1
Ryan Wallace	TE				2	1	8	50.0%	4.0	0.6%	0.0%	3.2	1.1
Nick Baisch	FB	5'11, 251	Sr.	NR	2	2	5	100.0%	2.5	0.6%	100.0%	1.5	0.7
Andrew Pettijohn	WR	5'8, 188	Sr.	NR	1	1	7	100.0%	7.0	0.3%	100.0%	4.2	1.0
Lonnie Turner	WR	5'10, 175	Jr.	** (5.3)
Shaquille Johnson	TE	6'4, 215	Fr.	** (5.4)
Nicholas Norris	WR	5'10, 170	Fr.	** (5.4)

6. The toybox is stocked.

In the Taggart offense, young receivers Rico Brown, Austin Aikens and Boe Brand were luxuries. About three to four times per game, then-quarterback Kawaun Jakes would look downfield, probably after a steady dose of Antonio Andrews and a play-action fake, and find one of these players, probably Brown (14.9 yards per catch) or Aikens (27.1), for a lovely gain.

In a Petrino offense, these players will lose the surprise aspect but will probably see quite a few more targets in a given game. If they can still provide a decent downfield threat, then combined with Andrews, a host of interesting backup running backs, the steady Willie McNeal and tight end Mitchell Henry, WKU should have too many weapons for most opponents on the schedule.

And while all-conference right guard Adam Smith is gone, the Hilltoppers return four players with starting experience up front (82 career starts), including three-year starting center Sean Conway. There's a lot to like here.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.7	3.11	3.35	38.9%	77.8%	15.8%	63.0	8.2%	6.1%
Rank	65	39	54	65	12	15	114	113	54

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Adam Smith	RG				47 career starts; 2012 1st All-Sun Belt
Sean Conway	C	6'3, 305	Sr.	** (5.1)	37 career starts
Luis Polanco	LG	6'2, 295	Sr.	** (5.2)	24 career starts
Cameron Clemmons	LT	6'6, 305	Jr.	*** (5.6)	19 career starts
Seth White	RT				18 career starts
Luke Stansfield	LG				5 career starts
Ed Hazelett	LT	6'8, 318	Sr.	*** (5.6)	2 career starts
Cliff Burns	RG
Delryn Wilson	RT	6'3, 308	So.	** (5.4)
Connor Popeck	OL	6'4, 280	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Johnny Delaney	OL	6'6, 310	Jr.	** (5.3)
Joe Fennell	OL	6'5, 320	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Donald Rocker	OL	6'4, 296	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Kyle Jones	OL	6'4, 290	Fr.	** (5.4)
Justin Martinez	OL	6'3, 264	Fr.	** (5.4)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	75	53	50	59
RUSHING	44	49	42	52
PASSING	92	61	62	61
Standard Downs		64	58	71
Passing Downs		44	39	45
Redzone		77	30	110

Q1 Rk	82	1st Down Rk	54
Q2 Rk	62	2nd Down Rk	30
Q3 Rk	75	3rd Down Rk	94
Q4 Rk	16

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.4	2.75	1.80	36.4%	58.5%	25.6%	135.7	4.8%	8.4%
Rank	27	36	3	39	11	6	16	58	32

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Quanterus Smith	DE				10	33.0	4.8%	18.5	12.5	0	1	3	1
Jamarcus Allen	DT				13	28.0	4.1%	7	2.5	0	0	2	1
Cole Tischer	DE				13	25.0	3.6%	6	2	0	0	0	1
Rammell Lewis	DT				13	18.0	2.6%	5	2	0	2	1	2
Kenny Martin	DT				13	14.0	2.0%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Gavin Rocker	DE	6'2, 230	So.	** (5.4)	12	11.5	1.7%	4	3	0	0	0	1
Calvin Washington	DE	6'5, 264	Sr.	*** (5.6)	8	7.5	1.1%	2	1	0	2	0	0
Bryan Shorter	DT	6'2, 274	So.	** (5.3)	10	5.0	0.7%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jamichael Payne	DT	6'1, 336	Jr.	** (5.4)	6	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Raphael Cox	DE	6'3, 270	Jr.	** (5.3)
Maurice Bennett	DT	6'3, 290	Jr.	** (5.2)
DeMarcus Glover	DE	6'5, 235	Fr.	** (5.4)

7. Olé!

WKU had one of the best mid-major front sevens in the country in 2012; hell, they had one of the better front sevens, period. End Quanterus Smith was a destructive force on passing downs, tackle Jamarcus Allen was disruptive on the interior, five other linemen logged at least two tackles for loss, and generally speaking, the line made life really easy for a fantastic set of linebackers. The defense faded as the year progressed (among other things, Smith missed the final two games of the season), but this was still a very, very high-quality unit.

Of the six primary members of the line rotation, however, five are now gone. Only two returning linemen logged more than 5.0 tackles, and while Gavin Rocker showed potential as a speed rusher (4.0 of his 11.5 tackles were behind the line, and 3.0 were sacks), the pressure is on Rocker and a bunch of newcomers to keep pressure off of a linebacking corps that does return mostly intact.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Andrew Jackson	MIKE	6'1, 265	Sr.	** (5.3)	13	100.0	14.5%	17.5	2	0	1	4	0
Xavius Boyd	MIKE	6'2, 235	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	60.5	8.8%	7.5	0.5	1	0	0	0
Bar'ee Boyd	SAM	6'1, 227	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	23.0	3.3%	6.5	3.5	0	0	1	0
Terran Williams	WILL	6'2, 222	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	14.5	2.1%	2	1	0	1	0	0
Daerius Washington	LB	6'0, 202	So.	*** (5.6)	10	8.5	1.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tye Golden	SAM				13	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Smith	LB	6'2, 239	Jr.	*** (5.5)	11	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Daqual Randall	MIKE	6'0, 245	So.	*** (5.6)	11	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chuck Franks	LB	6'2, 231	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Julian Leslie	LB	6'3, 228	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Isaac Tanner	LB	6'1, 225	Fr.	** (5.4)
Devanta Ducios	LB	6'0, 216	Fr.	** (5.4)

8. And what a linebacking corps this is.

That is not a typo: Andrew Jackson really is 265 pounds, and he really did log 100.0 tackles and nearly 20 tackles for loss from the middle linebacker position. Again, life was pretty easy for Jackson, Xavius Boyd, Bar'ee Boyd and company with the attention the line demanded, but this might be the most proven mid-major linebacking corps in the country. You rarely see this many former three-star prospects in a Sun Belt unit, and you rarely see this much production returning from one year to another.

It is difficult to imagine the WKU linebackers improving on last year's numbers considering the green front four, but Jackson, et al, should assure that the negative impact of the new line is minimized to some degree. A tremendous pair of safeties (Kiante Young and Florida transfer Jonathan Dowling) will help, too.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kiante Young	SS	5'11, 220	Sr.	** (4.9)	13	71.0	10.3%	2.5	0	0	7	1	1
Jonathan Dowling	FS	6'3, 198	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12	54.0	7.8%	2.5	0	6	7	2	0
Tyree Robinson	CB	5'10, 196	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	45.5	6.6%	2.5	0	0	3	0	0
Cam Thomas	CB	6'1, 190	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	38.5	5.6%	2	0	3	7	0	1
Brett Harrington	CB	6'0, 180	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	31.0	4.5%	2	0	2	2	0	0
Arius Wright	CB	5'10, 189	Sr.	** (5.3)	13	30.5	4.4%	3	1	1	6	1	2
Kareem Peterson	FS				12	17.5	2.5%	1	0	0	4	0	0
Vince Williams	SS	5'9, 198	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	8.5	1.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Prince Charles Iworah	DB	5'10, 176	So.	NR	1	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darryl Gilchrist	DB	6'3, 190	Sr.	NR	2	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rashad Greene	DB	6'1, 180	Jr.	** (5.2)
De'Andre Simmons	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Hendrix Brakefield	6'4, 235	Sr.	45	42.1	4	10	14	53.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Jesse Roy	6'0, 189	Jr.	56	58.2	3	5.4%
Hendrix Brakefield	6'4, 235	Sr.	13	57.8	2	15.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Garrett Schwettman	5'11, 160	So.	42-43	9-11	81.8%	1-2	50.0%
Jesse Roy	6'0, 189	Jr.	0-0	0-2	0.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Antonio Andrews	KR	6'0, 211	Sr.	28	27.4	0
Rico Brown	KR	5'11, 185	Jr.	6	24.0	0
Willie McNeal	KR	5'10, 163	Jr.	5	18.2	0
Antonio Andrews	PR	6'0, 211	Sr.	19	12.3	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	70
Net Punting	77
Net Kickoffs	114
Touchback Pct	121
Field Goal Pct	75
Kick Returns Avg	17
Punt Returns Avg	31

9. Learn the pop-up, love the pop-up.

Kickoffs just killed WKU in 2012. The rest of the special teams unit was solid -- Antonio Andrews is as good a return man as he is a running back, Garrett Schwettman is a steady place-kicker, and about half of Hendrix Brakefield's* punts were either fair-caught or downed inside the 20. But Brakefield and Jesse Roy combined to boot touchbacks on kickoffs just seven percent of the time, and a WKU kickoff was nearly guaranteed to result in quality field position for the opponent.

If Petrino and special teams coach Ricky Brumfield can figure out how to master the art of the pop-up kickoff -- where the goal is height and minimal returns instead of depth -- this unit, top to bottom, could be a strength instead of one of overall neutral impact.

* That's really his name.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	vs. Kentucky	90
7-Sep	at Tennessee	44
28-Sep	Navy	95
9-Nov	at Army	103
?	Arkansas State	64
?	Georgia State	125
?	South Alabama	119
?	Texas State	107
?	Troy	102
?	UL-Lafayette	78
?	UL-Monroe	86
?	?	NR

Five-Year F/+ Rk	108
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	102
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / +3.2
TO Luck/Game	-2.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+0.1

10. WKU could be favored to win up to 10 games.

We don't know the home-road status of the Sun Belt schedule, and we don't know who WKU will schedule for its 12th game yet. But with seven known opponents projected 90th or worse, and only two projected better than 78th, the Hilltoppers could be expected to see quite a bit of success in Petrino's first year.

Whether WKU can live up to expectations will be determined by the magnitude of the drop-off in the Hilltoppers' defensive line and the speed with which the offense can learn and adapt to the new style and terminology. Petrino did go 5-7 in his first year at Arkansas, after all, so it's not an outright slam dunk that WKU will immediately thrive. But you have to like the mix of personnel and coaching acumen.

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