2013 Buffalo football's 10 things to know: Extensions and experience

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Jeff Quinn got himself a contract extension

You can understand fan discontent. In 2010, Jeff Quinn took over a Buffalo team that had won 18 games in three seasons after winning just 12 in the preceding eight years. Buffalo won six games per year in 2007-09 and has won just three per year since. That's not good. And when Quinn received a contract extension in November, as a 4-8 campaign was wrapping up, one had to figure Buffalo fans weren't altogether pleased. And they weren't.

Honestly? I kind of liked the move. It's true that Quinn still had two years left on his deal and was therefore not yet entering "lame duck" status. But it's also true that, after bottoming out in 2010 (2-10, No. 110 in the F/+ rankings), the Bulls improved in 2011 (3-9, No. 103), then improved again in 2012 (4-8, No. 92). Most programs are not in a place to fire somebody after two consecutive years of improvement unless they know they can get somebody better; Buffalo probably can't. In extending Quinn's deal, Buffalo was essentially saying that it sees what's ahead in 2013 -- an extremely experienced, rather interesting UB squad facing a MAC in transition -- and likes it. Progress has been both undeniable and slow, but the faith in Quinn could pay off in 2013.

(And if you want to question what the core of talent will look like after 2013, after a couple of years of pretty horrid recruiting rankings, go ahead. I only kind of liked the extention, after all.)

2. There are two ways to win in the MAC

Teams that win big in the MAC have either a breakthrough talent (probably at quarterback) or the most experienced squad. It is difficult to compile more experience than what Buffalo will have in 2013: two experienced starting quarterbacks (each of whom threw at least 160 passes last year), a solid pair of running backs (and an interesting junior college transfer), an interesting No. 1 receiver, 72 returning starts on the offensive line, and an aggressive 3-4 defense that returns eight starters, including linebacker Khalil Mack, who has amassed at least 20 tackles for loss in back-to-back seasons.

In all, Buffalo returns 17 starters -- a total that all but guarantees improvement -- and its entire special teams unit (which, honestly, might not be a good thing, but still). Quinn has been building with an eye on 2013 for a while now, and if the team stays healthy and grows as projected, the Bulls should expect to return to a bowl for the first time since Turner Gill's 2008 Bulls won the MAC.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 92
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	at Georgia	23-45	L	24.7 - 32.7	L
8-Sep	Morgan State	56-34	W	41.6 - 48.6	L
19-Sep	Kent State	7-23	L	14.8 - 22.8	L
29-Sep	at Connecticut	17-24	L	29.2 - 36.8	L
6-Oct	at Ohio	31-38	L	30.3 - 23.5	W
13-Oct	at Northern Illinois	3-45	L	19.1 - 29.7	L
20-Oct	Pittsburgh	6-20	L	22.0 - 20.2	W
27-Oct	Toledo	20-25	L	17.5 - 23.5	L
3-Nov	Miami (Ohio)	27-24	W	22.2 - 20.0	W
10-Nov	Western Michigan	29-24	W	25.8 - 23.6	W
17-Nov	at Massachusetts	29-19	W	22.6 - 25.3	L
23-Nov	Bowling Green	7-21	L	15.5 - 19.9	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	21.3	101	28.5	69
Adj. Points Per Game	23.8	100	27.2	58

3. Three seasons in one

It was an odd fall at UB. In September, a good Buffalo offense was betrayed a bit by a shoddy defense. In October, the defense improved dramatically, and the offense regressed. In November, the defense improved even more, and the offense regressed again.

Adj. Points per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 35.3, Buffalo 27.6 (minus-7.7)
Adj. Points per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 24.3, Buffalo 22.3 (minus-2.1)
Adj. Points per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 22.2, Buffalo 21.5 (minus-0.7)

Over the final seven games of the season, Buffalo had one of the best mid-major defenses in the country. The Bulls were aggressive on all downs, and it looked good on them. Of course, having wrecking ball Khalil Mack at outside linebacker didn't hurt, but he got plenty of help. The offense, meanwhile, just couldn't quite fall into place. Quarterback Alex Zordich was competent, if scatter-shot, but results were sporadic, and he missed the final four games of the season with injury. His replacement, Joe Licata, wasn't any more accurate. In the end, Buffalo had a decent run game, a good line, and a couple of interesting receivers, but the passing game was just too inefficient, and it became more so as the year progressed. But that defense ... you can talk yourself into Buffalo because of the defense alone.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	85	111	113	107
RUSHING	47	89	93	84
PASSING	97	109	113	101
Standard Downs		97	105	90
Passing Downs		114	112	112
Redzone		49	48	51

Q1 Rk	109	1st Down Rk	74
Q2 Rk	100	2nd Down Rk	117
Q3 Rk	81	3rd Down Rk	108
Q4 Rk	99

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Alex Zordich	6'3, 222	Sr.	** (5.3)	106	208	1,254	51.0%	9	7	11	5.0%	5.5
Joe Licata	6'2, 217	So.	*** (5.5)	86	163	1,045	52.8%	7	3	16	8.9%	5.3
Tony Daniel	6'5, 203	So.	** (5.3)	1	2	10	50.0%	0	0	0	0.0%	5.0
Collin Michael	6'5, 224	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

4. Accuracy is good

Alex Zordich looks the part. He's the proper size of an NFL quarterback, and he's a solid runner. But as the UB Bull Run meme above would suggest, he's got a bit of an accuracy problem.

In three starts as a freshman in 2010, Zordich completed just 41 percent of his passes, and while he absolutely improved in 2012 -- 14-for-24 against Georgia, 18-for-29 against Northern Illinois, 23-for-41 against Pittsburgh, 16-for-21 against Morgan State -- his low notes were still awfully low. In a 23-7 loss to Kent State, he had a rather unfathomable passing line: 4-for-22 for 92 yards, a touchdown and two picks. If you count his interceptions as completions, it still only raises his completion rate to 27 percent. Brutal. He also completed just 13 of 30 against UConn and five of 16 against Toledo.

Now, it's probably unfair to stick this all on Zordich. First of all, his replacement, Licata, really didn't fare any better when Zordich was hurt. Licata's completion rate was slightly higher but was more than mitigated by his propensity for taking sacks. That suggests that the receiving corps also left something to be desired. Despite two different quarterbacks, none of Buffalo's top six passing targets managed a catch rate better than 58 percent. That's not good.

Buffalo wants to lean on the run as much as possible, and with Zordich carving out yards alongside backs Branden Oliver and Devin Campbell, that could be a good thing. But they'll need to pass at some point. Can they?

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Branden Oliver	RB	5'8, 202	Sr.	*** (5.5)	148	821	5.5	5.1	5	-2.6
Devin Campbell	RB	5'11, 195	So.	** (5.2)	115	502	4.4	4.1	2	-2.6
Alex Zordich	QB	6'3, 222	Sr.	** (5.3)	89	543	6.1	4.9	1	+11.2
Brandon Murie	RB	5'9, 186	Sr.	NR	56	221	3.9	2.7	2	-4.9
Rashad Jean	FB				17	73	4.3	1.7	0	-3.0
Joe Licata	QB	6'3, 222	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	37	3.1	1.6	0	-2.7
Alex Dennison	TE	6'1, 246	Sr.	** (4.9)	7	18	2.6	0.5	2	-1.3
James Potts	RB	5'11, 196	Jr.	*** (5.6)	2	54	27.0	N/A	1	N/A

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Alex Neutz	WR	6'3, 205	Sr.	** (4.9)	118	65	1070	55.1%	9.1	33.1%	56.8%	9.1	107.5
Devon Hughes	WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	*** (5.5)	40	23	228	57.5%	5.7	11.2%	60.0%	5.7	22.9
Fred Lee	WR	6'2, 201	Sr.	** (5.2)	33	17	261	51.5%	7.9	9.3%	51.5%	7.8	26.2
Rudy Johnson	WR	6'1, 186	Jr.	** (5.3)	32	16	182	50.0%	5.7	9.0%	43.8%	6.4	18.3
Jimmy Gordon	TE	6'5, 260	Sr.	** (4.9)	30	17	162	56.7%	5.4	8.4%	60.0%	5.4	16.3
Cordero Dixon	WR	5'11, 186	Jr.	** (5.4)	28	10	96	35.7%	3.4	7.9%	67.9%	3.5	9.6
Devin Campbell	RB	5'11, 195	So.	** (5.2)	27	21	171	77.8%	6.3	7.6%	48.1%	6.5	17.2
John Dunmore	WR	6'0, 177	Jr.	NR	18	10	106	55.6%	5.9	5.1%	61.1%	5.9	10.6
Alex Dennison	TE	6'1, 246	Sr.	** (4.9)	12	6	64	50.0%	5.3	3.4%	50.0%	5.4	6.4
Branden Oliver	RB	5'8, 202	Sr.	*** (5.5)	9	7	25	77.8%	2.8	2.5%	22.2%	1.7	2.5
Matt Weiser	TE	6'5, 244	So.	** (5.3)	5	1	15	20.0%	3.0	1.4%	40.0%	4.5	1.5
Brandon Murie	RB	5'9, 186	Sr.	NR	2	1	4	50.0%	2.0	0.6%	0.0%	0.8	0.4
Marcus McGill	WR	6'1, 211	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Jamari Elland	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Boise Ross	WR	5'11, 180	Fr.	** (5.4)

5. If the quarterback position is capable, things fall into place

Whoever wins the starting job -- be it Zordich, Licata or a third-party candidate -- inherits a strong backfield, a solid line (the left side of it, anyway) and a receiving corps that is, at least, quite a bit more experienced than it was last year. Junior college transfer James Potts joins the party at running back, Alex Neutz is a big-play threat in the No. 1 receiver spot, and some interesting youngsters could carve out a niche in the passing game. Two-year starting left tackle Andre Davis returns, and while the line must replace two starters on the right side, experienced former starters are available to replace them. There are plenty of reasons to assume Buffalo's offense will improve in 2013, but the velocity of the improvement will be determined by the reliability of the quarterback.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.3	3.09	3.36	39.9%	75.8%	15.9%	85.1	6.2%	6.9%
Rank	46	45	52	56	22	17	83	89	70

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Graham Whinery	RG				36 career starts
Andre Davis	LT	6'4, 303	Jr.	** (5.2)	24 career starts
Gokhan Ozkan	RT				24 career starts
Jasen Carlson	LG	6'1, 301	Sr.	** (5.2)	19 career starts
Trevor Sales	C	6'2, 318	Jr.	** (5.4)	12 career starts
Pat Wilson	LT	6'4, 278	Sr.	** (4.9)	11 career starts
Dillon Guy	RG	6'4, 318	Jr.	** (5.2)	6 career starts
John Kling	LT	6'7, 310	So.	** (5.2)
Robert Blodgett	LG	6'5, 306	So.	NR
Jessie Back	LG	6'4, 294	So.	NR
Gabriel Barbe	C	6'6, 298	Jr.	NR
Jake Silas	RT	6'7, 316	Jr.	NR
Robert Riche	OL	6'6, 270	RSFr.	** (5.4)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	37	62	63	62
RUSHING	56	64	66	60
PASSING	31	65	60	70
Standard Downs		61	64	62
Passing Downs		57	55	58
Redzone		45	44	48

Q1 Rk	24	1st Down Rk	74
Q2 Rk	79	2nd Down Rk	59
Q3 Rk	108	3rd Down Rk	52
Q4 Rk	20

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.0	2.82	2.95	35.7%	69.8%	16.9%	151.9	5.6%	13.4%
Rank	68	46	38	27	79	94	5	31	3

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Steven Means	DE				12	58.5	8.8%	11	6.5	0	2	0	0
Colby Way	DE	6'4, 276	Sr.	** (5.2)	12	43.0	6.4%	10.5	7	1	2	0	1
Wyatt Cahill	NG				12	17.0	2.5%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Kristjan Sokoli	DE	6'5, 287	Jr.	** (5.2)	12	14.0	2.1%	3	0	0	1	0	0
Dalton Barksdale	NG	6'3, 297	Jr.	NR	11	7.5	1.1%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Beau Bachtelle	DL	6'5, 272	Sr.	** (5.2)	12	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Albert McCoy	DL	6'4, 276	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Tedroy Lynch	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	** (5.2)
Brandon Crawford	DE	6'3, 228	Fr.	** (5.3)
Solomon Jackson	DE	6'2, 230	Fr.	** (5.3)

6. Buffalo was rock solid in the trenches (on both sides of the ball) in 2012

Top 50 in offensive Adj. Line Yards, top 70 in defensive Adj. Line Yards, great short-yardage blocking and a fierce pass rush? Buffalo's trench work was quite good in 2012. Two starters are gone from the defensive line, but a) end Kristjan Sokoli was solid in backup duty, and b) part of the defensive line's success had to do with support from the linebacking corps, three-fourths of which remains intact.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Khalil Mack	OLB	6'3, 245	Sr.	** (4.9)	11	73.0	10.9%	21	8	0	2	4	0
Lee Skinner	ILB	6'2, 226	Jr.	NR	12	62.5	9.4%	8.5	5	0	1	1	0
Jake Stockman	ILB	6'2, 235	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	43.0	6.4%	4	2.5	0	2	1	0
Willie Moseley	OLB				12	38.0	5.7%	5.5	2.5	1	0	0	1
Dalonte Wallace	OLB				6	18.0	2.7%	1.5	1	0	0	0	0
Scott Pettigrew	ILB				8	9.0	1.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Khari Brown	ILB	6'1, 229	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kendall Roberson	LB	6'2, 227	Jr.	** (5.2)	11	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Imani Chatman	OLB				6	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Blake Bean	LB	6'1, 235	Jr.	** (5.2)

7. Khalil Mack is a badass

Sometimes you uncover the proverbial diamond in the rough. As a recruit, Khalil Mack barely even garnered a two-star rating. But in three years, he has been one of the most terrifying mid-major defenders in the country. As a redshirt freshman in 2010, he was better than most upper-classmen, logging 14.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. In 2011, he raised his game: 20.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks. And despite constant attention from opposing offenses, he somehow improved his stats again last fall: 21.0 TFLs, 8.0 sacks. He gets special attention and still thrives, and that (not surprisingly) does wonders for the players around him. Lee Skinner and Jake Stockman combined for another 12.5 TFLs from the inside, and returning end Colby Way had 10.5. Buffalo's pas rush was strong enough that opponents had to run to move the ball, and over the final two months of the season, Buffalo was equally strong at defending that. UB does have some losses to deal with in its front seven -- on the first string of the line and the second string of the linebacking corps -- but Mack and company should still expect to make a lot of stops in 2013. Two months of sustained improvement in 2012 suggests very good things about 2013.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derek Brim	S	6'0, 188	Jr.	NR	12	40.0	6.0%	2	0	0	2	0	0
Najja Johnson	CB	6'0, 182	Sr.	NR	12	35.0	5.2%	0.5	0	5	6	0	0
Witney Sherry	FS	6'0, 185	Jr.	** (5.2)	7	32.5	4.9%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Cortney Lester	CB	6'0, 179	Jr.	** (5.2)	11	30.5	4.6%	0	0	4	6	0	0
Isaac Baugh	SS				12	29.0	4.3%	1.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
Adam Redden	SS	6'1, 193	Sr.	** (5.2)	10	22.5	3.4%	2	0	1	2	0	0
Okoye Houston	SS	6'0, 201	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	19.0	2.8%	3	1	1	0	0	0
Carlos Lammons	CB	5'8, 176	Sr.	** (4.9)	10	15.5	2.3%	1	0	0	1	0	1
Marqus Baker	CB	5'10, 177	So.	** (5.3)	12	15.0	2.2%	2	0	0	6	0	0
Kyndal Minniefield	FS	6'0, 185	So.	** (5.2)	12	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dwellie Striggles	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	** (5.4)	11	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Okezie Alozie	DB	6'0, 200	So.	** (5.3)	10	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Berry	DB	6'0, 201	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Houston Glass	DB	6'1, 190	Fr.	** (5.3)
James Coleman	DB	6'3, 195	Fr.	** (5.3)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Grassman	6'1, 190	So.	80	35.3	3	28	19	58.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Patrick Clarke	6'1, 197	Jr.	51	52.9	13	25.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Patrick Clarke	6'1, 197	Jr.	28-29	7-10	70.0%	4-5	80.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Okoye Houston	KR	6'0, 201	Sr.	13	19.1	0
Brandon Murie	KR	5'9, 186	Sr.	11	18.4	0
Devin Campbell	KR	5'11, 195	So.	10	21.9	0
Cordero Dixon	PR	5'11, 186	Jr.	10	3.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	119
Net Punting	121
Net Kickoffs	122
Touchback Pct	96
Field Goal Pct	57
Kick Returns Avg	109
Punt Returns Avg	106

8. Special teams was flaky

Buffalo had its moments in special teams -- the Bulls blocked two PATs versus Toledo, turned the UMass game around with a blocked punt, and got steady play from kicker Patrick Clarke all year -- but the unit was still lacking overall. Punt and kick coverage was dreadful (suggesting that there was not much athleticism on the team beyond the first string, since the coverage units are typically made of reserves), and the return men were lacking, too. This probably isn't going to change in 2013, but some more timely blocked kicks would certainly mitigate some of the damage here.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Ohio State	10
7-Sep	at Baylor	36
14-Sep	Stony Brook	NR
28-Sep	Connecticut	58
5-Oct	Eastern Michigan	118
12-Oct	at Western Michigan	93
19-Oct	Massachusetts	124
26-Oct	at Kent State	80
5-Nov	Ohio	83
12-Nov	at Toledo	62
19-Nov	at Miami (Ohio)	106
29-Nov	Bowling Green	67

Five-Year F/+ Rk	97
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	123
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-6 / +1.4
TO Luck/Game	-3.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (9, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+4.9

9. There are expectations

The folks at UB Bull Run are calling for 7-5 (6-2) against the above schedule. That may seem like a lot for a team that has won seven games in the last two years, but if it's going to happen, it's going to happen in 2013. Most of this team's difference-makers -- Mack, Oliver, Neutz, etc. -- are seniors. We don't know if a new window of opportunity will open for Quinn in 2014, but this one closes soon.

10. Buffalo should meet those expectations

Honestly, after a couple of blood-lettings against Ohio State and Baylor to start the year, the Bulls should have a chance in almost every game they play, aside from perhaps the trip to Toledo. A mature team with an interesting defense, Buffalo should expect at least six wins and bowl eligibility in 2013; anything less than that will represent a terrible missed opportunity and make that Quinn extension look awfully misguided.

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