College Football

2013 Ball State football's 10 things to know: A track record and some turnover

Ball State's Pete Lembo might be one of the more underrated coaches in the country. He has churned out 11 winning seasons in 12 years at three different schools. He will probably make it 12 in 13 this fall.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Mar 14, 2013, 10:00am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Pete Lembo is really, really underrated

The Ball State head coach has taken on three incredibly disparate coaching jobs -- the "no scholarships, but high expectations" Lehigh job, the "building something from nothing" Elon job, and now the Ball State job. And in 12 years as a head coach, he has experienced one losing season.

He inherited a nice Lehigh program from Kevin Higgins, went 11-1 in his first season, and won at least eight games in each of the next four years. At Elon, he inherited a Southern Conference program that was all-potential, minimal-production; the Phoenix had gone just 14-42 in the five years before his arrival. He went 5-6 in Year 1, then reeled off four straight winning seasons and a 2009 FCS playoff appearance. And at Ball State, he inherited a team in serious flux. The Cardinals had gone 12-2 in 2008, Brady Hoke's final year in charge, but they went just 6-18 in two years under Stan Parrish. Lembo engineered an immediate, two-game improvement in 2011, then reeled off a surprising 9-4 season in 2012.

In just over a decade, Lembo has won, and won pretty big, in the Patriot League (northeastern, with mostly need-based aid for players), the Southern Conference (an FCS powerhouse), and the MAC (a midwestern mid-major).

"One stat that one of my assistants threw at me recently: There are only seven head coaches that have won nine or more games at three or more schools," Lembo told me. He's one of them.

Nobody thought much of it when Ball State hired him two years ago ("To satisfy the constituent base, it's easier to say you just hired a Notre Dame assistant" instead of an FCS guy, Lembo says), but he has done impressive things in a short amount of time.

There isn't much flash to Lembo's style or his team.

"We don't have big egos, and we're not self-promoters," he said. "But we do believe in what we do and how we do it. It always gets back to culture, to organizational behavior. If the coaches are unified and have great chemistry, and if they keep their composure in close-and-late situations, when it's stressful, and there's a lot at stake, then it trickles down to the team."

It's kind of boring, really, but Ball State's improvement has been anything but. The Cardinals ranked 112th in the 2010 F/+ rankings, improved to 95th in 2011 and surged to 65th in 2012. Keep that up, and he'll soon get a chance to win nine games at a fourth school, this time in a BCS conference.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 \| Adj. Record: 3-10 \| Final F/+ Rk: 64
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
30-Aug	Eastern Michigan	37-26	W	27.1 - 30.6	L
8-Sep	at Clemson	27-52	L	27.3 - 28.0	L
15-Sep	at Indiana	41-39	W	23.7 - 31.7	L
22-Sep	South Florida	31-27	W	32.3 - 41.2	L
29-Sep	at Kent State	43-45	L	38.7 - 33.4	W
6-Oct	Northern Illinois	23-35	L	37.0 - 29.0	W
13-Oct	Western Michigan	30-24	W	26.9 - 28.8	L
20-Oct	at Central Michigan	41-30	W	30.7 - 33.1	L
27-Oct	at Army	30-22	W	24.2 - 24.5	L
6-Nov	at Toledo	34-27	W	29.4 - 31.0	L
14-Nov	Ohio	52-27	W	58.3 - 28.2	W
23-Nov	at Miami (Ohio)	31-24	W	18.0 - 25.5	L
21-Dec	vs. Central Florida	17-38	L	26.2 - 33.3	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	33.6	33	32.0	93
Adj. Points Per Game	30.8	47	30.6	89

2. Wins without stats

In essence, Ball State was the Kansas State of mid-majors last year, dominating the special teams and field position battles, finishing drives (as you see below, their red zone rankings were better than their overall offensive rankings), taking few chances, and proving more than happy to let opponents shoot themselves in the feet. The Cardinals' offense was quite efficient, if short in big-play ability, the offensive line was fantastic, and while the defense was lacking, there was usually a cap on its struggle; BSU's D was usually below average but rarely catastrophic.

Ball State also improved as the year progressed, at last until the last couple of games.

Adj. Points per game (first 4 games): Opponent 32.9, Ball State 27.6 (minus-5.3)
Adj. Points per game (next 7 games): Ball State 35.0, Opponent 29.7 (plus-5.3)
Adj. Points per game (last 2 games): Opponent 29.4, Ball State 22.1 (minus-7.3)

The Cardinals managed to take out Indiana and South Florida without playing particularly well, then played pretty well in losses to Kent State and Northern Illinois. The offense was magnificent against Ohio then mediocre at best in the final two games, but the defense continued to steadily improve.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	27	68	44	90
RUSHING	28	74	60	83
PASSING	47	68	37	89
Standard Downs		57	26	83
Passing Downs		101	104	101
Redzone		45	22	71

Q1 Rk	54	1st Down Rk	65
Q2 Rk	69	2nd Down Rk	82
Q3 Rk	77	3rd Down Rk	66
Q4 Rk	88

3. An underdog-friendly offense

Ball State was lacking in explosiveness in 2012, but the Cardinals got a little crafty in moving the ball. They threw more than normal on standard downs, they ran more than normal on passing downs, they passed in the red zone, and they operated at an abnormal pace (in this case, a fast one). Ball State was far from predictable, checking off quite a few Underdog Tactics boxes in the process.

4. Wanted: big plays

Craftiness is great. Explosiveness is better. With Jahwan Edwards and Horactio Banks running behind an excellent line and Keith Wenning completing a host of high-percentage passes (often on running downs), Ball State was excellent at grinding out five yards at a time. But in college football, big plays create margin for error, and the Cardinals were lacking in this regard. Edwards was not particularly explosive (6.1 yards per carry is good, but it was based a lot on the line), and Wenning averaged just 10.3 yards per completion. None of Wenning's top four targets averaged even 13 yards per catch. This is, of course, a problem.

That most of BSU's skill position weapons return is certainly not a bad thing. But if a youngster with big-play ability were to emerge -- the best candidate is probably sophomore receiver KeVonn Mabon, last year's No. 5 target, though some redshirt freshmen (receiver Efe Scott-Emuakpor, perhaps) or freshmen (running back Teddy Williamson?) could certainly play a role -- the offense's upside might rise enough to offset the downside of a line ravaged by graduation.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Keith Wenning

6'3, 220

Sr.

*** (5.5)

301

460

3,095

65.4%

2.3%

6.4

Kelly Page

178

55.2%

3.3%

5.6

Kyle Kamman

6'2, 180

So.

0.0%

0.0

Jack Miles

6'1, 195

Fr.

** (5.4)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Jahwan Edwards	RB	5'10, 225	Jr.	** (5.2)	232	1,410	6.1	4.7	14	+15.7
Horactio Banks	RB	5'10, 184	So.	** (5.4)	113	586	5.2	5.8	4	+1.4
Barrington Scott	RB				93	374	4.0	2.8	1	-11.6
Keith Wenning	QB	6'3, 220	Sr.	*** (5.5)	45	173	3.8	3.0	3	-4.9
Kelly Page	QB				15	97	6.5	3.6	1	+1.4
Toney Williams	RB				9	44	4.9	2.8	1	+0.4
Jamill Smith	WR-Z	5'8, 140	Sr.	NR	7	62	8.9	7.1	0	+2.7
Dwayne Donigan	RB				5	18	3.6	1.0	0	-0.6
Teddy Williamson	RB	5'10, 184	Fr.	** (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Willie Snead

WR-X

5'11, 193

Jr.

*** (5.5)

139

1148

64.0%

8.3

29.4%

68.3%

8.2

117.8

Jamill Smith

WR-Z

5'8, 140

Sr.

103

706

67.0%

6.9

21.8%

67.0%

6.8

72.4

Zane Fakes

6'3, 237

Sr.

** (4.9)

461

70.4%

5.7

17.2%

72.8%

5.8

47.3

Connor Ryan

WR-W

6'1, 194

Sr.

** (5.2)

357

73.3%

6.0

12.7%

70.0%

6.1

36.6

KeVonn Mabon

WR-X

6'3, 208

So.

** (5.3)

335

76.7%

11.2

6.4%

73.3%

10.7

34.4

Jahwan Edwards

5'10, 225

Jr.

** (5.2)

76.9%

3.9

2.8%

53.8%

4.2

5.2

Jack Tomlinson

50.0%

4.9

2.1%

50.0%

4.8

5.0

Chris Shillings

WR-Z

6'1, 205

Jr.

** (5.4)

44.4%

5.7

1.9%

66.7%

5.9

5.2

Horactio Banks

5'10, 184

So.

** (5.4)

55.6%

3.2

1.9%

33.3%

4.8

3.0

David Schneider

6'2, 240

Sr.

** (5.3)

62.5%

2.9

1.7%

87.5%

2.0

2.4

Dylan Curry

6'5, 260

So.

*** (5.5)

75.0%

12.8

0.8%

75.0%

12.8

5.2

Barrington Scott

66.7%

4.7

0.6%

100.0%

2.8

1.4

Trey Gardner

6'4, 216

So.

** (5.4)

Efe Scott-Emuakpor

6'3, 183

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Calvin Blank

6'4, 226

Fr.

*** (5.6)

Ralph Smith

5'9, 166

Fr.

** (5.4)

5. Jamill Smith really is 5'8, 140

That's pretty awesome.

Smith carries a pretty big load for the offense, too; he averaged 8.5 touches (carries and targets) per game in 2012 and returned 33 kicks and 11 punts. He is probably better as a return man than a receiver, but his shiftiness is valuable to this efficiency attack.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.6	3.37	3.12	41.1%	65.3%	13.4%	209.8	1.3%	4.8%
Rank	56	8	72	39	78	3	11	4	36

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Austin Holtz	LT				32 career starts; 2012 1st All-MAC
Cameron Lowry	RT				32 career starts; 2012 3rd All-MAC
Jordan Hansel	RG	6'4, 326	Sr.	** (5.2)	27 career starts; 2012 3rd All-MAC
Dan Manick	C				38 career starts
Kitt O'Brien	LG				37 career starts
Jacob Richard	C	6'1, 285	So.	NR	3 career starts
Chris Sparrow	LG				3 career starts
Matthew Page	LT	6'6, 300	Sr.	** (5.2)	2 career starts
Jalen Schlachter	LG	6'6, 317	So.	*** (5.6)	1 career start
Drake Miller	OL	6'4, 289	RSFr.	** (5.4)
P.J. Scott	OL	6'3, 290	Jr.	** (5.2)
Haris Vrabac	OL	6'7, 310	Fr.	** (5.4)
Pat Maloney	OL	6'4, 270	Fr.	** (5.4)
Vinnie Palazeti	OL	6'4, 285	Fr.	** (5.4)

6. A really good line replaces some really good pieces

Ball State's line ranked eighth in the country in Line Yards per carry on standard downs and ranked third in Stuff Rate (the ability to avoid getting a runner stuffed in the backfield). It kept Keith Wenning upright, as well (though the quick passing game is pretty naturally good at sack avoidance).

It was quite obviously the biggest strength of the offense as a whole, and it must now replace four multi-year starters. Austin Holtz, Cameron Lowry, Dan Manick and Kitt O'Brien combined for 139 career starts; all four started at least 32 games, or more than two and a half seasons. It is nearly impossible to suffer this kind of loss and avoid regression to some degree. Returning guard Jordan Hansel is a two-time all-conference selection, and three other returnees have gotten a little bit of starting experience. And size certainly won't be an issue here. But wow, did this unit lose a lot.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	105	68	60	75
RUSHING	108	60	48	68
PASSING	96	74	89	72
Standard Downs		65	69	65
Passing Downs		76	59	82
Redzone		110	111	96

Q1 Rk	63	1st Down Rk	61
Q2 Rk	87	2nd Down Rk	91
Q3 Rk	19	3rd Down Rk	76
Q4 Rk	113

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.9	3.36	3.82	40.2%	75.0%	13.9%	100.1	4.7%	5.2%
Rank	86	117	113	75	106	121	62	62	86

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nick Miles	DE	6'2, 265	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	40.5	5.3%	4.5	2	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Newsome	DE	6'3, 236	Sr.	*** (5.7)	11	38.5	5.1%	12.5	8.5	0	1	0	0
Nathan Ollie	DT	6'1, 295	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	35.5	4.7%	8	4	0	0	0	1
Brandon Newman	NT				13	22.5	3.0%	5	2.5	1	0	1	0
Joel Cox	DT	6'1, 288	Sr.	** (5.3)	13	11.0	1.4%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Donovan Jarrett	DT				7	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Ayers	DE	6'1, 218	So.	NR	12	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Keenan Noel	DE	6'1, 270	So.	** (5.4)	13	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Osa Igbinosun	DE	6'2, 245	So.	** (5.2)	12	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Darnell Smith	DT	5'11, 275	Jr.	** (5.2)	11	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Daniel Garces	DE	6'2, 223	Fr.	** (5.4)
Anthony Winbush	DE	6'3, 220	Fr.	** (5.4)

7. Wanted: beef

As big and strong as the Ball State offensive line will be, the defensive line could use a bit more of a push. The Cardinals got shoved around up front on defense, and it cost them significantly. The pass rush had potential -- Ohio State transfer Jonathan Newsome had 8.5 sacks -- and Ball State's linebackers cleaned up quite a bit of messes. But the top three linebackers are all gone, and the safety net has been removed.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Travis Freeman	MLB				13	89.5	11.8%	2.5	0	0	2	1	0
Tony Martin	WLB				13	64.0	8.4%	3.5	1	1	3	0	1
Justin Cruz	WLB				13	44.5	5.9%	3	0	0	0	0	0
Kenneth Lee	LB	6'2, 224	Sr.	NR	12	28.0	3.7%	2.5	1	0	1	1	1
Ben Ingle	MLB	6'0, 224	So.	** (5.3)	12	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Julian Boyd	LB	6'2, 220	Jr.	** (5.3)	9	4.0	0.5%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Trent Toothman	LB	6'0, 236	Jr.	** (5.4)	5	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stephan Martin	LB	6'1, 230	Jr.	** (5.4)
Sean Wiggins	LB	6'3, 235	Fr.	** (5.4)
Stu Stanley	LB	6'1, 210	Fr.	** (5.4)

8. Selective attrition

Is it better to lose an equal number of contributors at each unit on the field, or would you prefer to return most units intact and have to focus on a couple of specific, ravaged units? Ball State returns almost everybody of importance at quarterback, running back, receiver, on the defensive line, and in the secondary. But wow, did the offensive line and linebacking corps get ravaged. Ball State's linebackers were underrated last year -- only one (Travis Freeman) received any sort of all-conference honor (second-team), but the linebackers clearly helped the run defense out tremendously: the Cardinals' line stats were poor, but they still ranked a healthy 60th in overall Rushing S&P+.

Now, a lineup consisting of senior Kenneth Lee (who began his career at tiny St. Joseph's College in Indiana), a host of young reserves, junior college transfer Stephan Martin (who redshirted last year) and potentially some freshmen will attempt to provide the same type of safety net Ball State benefited from in 2012.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eric Patterson	CB	5'10, 193	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	53.0	7.0%	4.5	0	2	9	1	0
Jarrett Swaby	SS				13	52.0	6.9%	1.5	0	0	3	0	0
Jeffery Garrett	CB	6'0, 186	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	47.5	6.3%	1	0	0	6	0	0
J.C. Wade	FS	5'10, 195	Jr.	** (5.3)	12	41.5	5.5%	0	0	0	5	1	0
Quintin Cooper	NB	5'7, 184	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	39.5	5.2%	1	0	2	2	0	1
Brian Jones	SS	5'10, 195	Jr.	*** (5.5)	10	27.5	3.6%	1	0	1	1	0	1
Jason Pinkston	CB				12	22.0	2.9%	1.5	0	0	4	1	0
Chris Pauling	FS	5'9, 183	So.	** (5.3)	8	14.0	1.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Armand Dehaney	CB				5	9.0	1.2%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Joseph Fazio	FS	5'11, 208	Sr.	NR	13	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Christopher Calloway	NB	5'11, 202	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Andre Dawson	CB				8	3.5	0.5%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Kish	S				5	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Tyree Holder	CB	5'11, 163	RSFr.	** (5.3)
Aaron Taylor	S	5'11, 191	RSFr.	** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Scott Kovanda			47	40.3	2	19	27	97.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Scott Secor	5'8, 166	Jr.	84	60.3	23	27.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Steven Schott			50-51	16-20	80.0%	9-12	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jamill Smith	KR	5'8, 140	Sr.	33	25.6	0
Jahwan Edwards	KR	5'10, 225	Jr.	7	16.7	0
Jamill Smith	PR	5'8, 140	Sr.	11	13.8	0
Jack Tomlinson	PR			5	5.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	5
Net Punting	23
Net Kickoffs	89
Touchback Pct	90
Field Goal Pct	36
Kick Returns Avg	30
Punt Returns Avg	28

9. A reload on special teams

Like Kent State, Ball State did itself serious favors with an altogether lovely special teams unit. Kickoffs were an issue, but the Cardinals were tremendous in the punting and return games and sufficient in the place-kicking department. But with both punter Scott Kovanda and kicker Steven Schott gone, there is a bit of a rebuild going on. And with how much field position meant to BSU in 2012 -- the Cardinals ranked 23rd in Field Position Advantage and fifth in Special Teams F/+ -- the loss of these two could mean as much as the losses on the line and at linebacker.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	Illinois State	NR
7-Sep	Army	103
14-Sep	at North Texas	112
21-Sep	at Eastern Michigan	118
28-Sep	Toledo	62
5-Oct	at Virginia	65
12-Oct	Kent State	80
19-Oct	at Western Michigan	93
26-Oct	at Akron	120
6-Nov	Central Michigan	96
13-Nov	at Northern Illinois	50
29-Nov	Miami (Ohio)	106

Five-Year F/+ Rk	89
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	107
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / +2.2
TO Luck/Game	-2.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (7, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-0.8

10. Another October surge would be welcome

Last year, Ball State found its groove in late-September and cruised through October and much of November. It will be a little more difficult to do that this time around; after a light September that features four opponents projected 103rd or worse, Ball State's schedule features a season-defining stretch: Toledo, at Virginia, Kent State, at Western Michigan. Go 3-1 or 4-0 here, and you're potentially heading into November as the favorite in the MAC West. Go 1-3 or 0-4, and your bowl hopes are on life support.

Over the past 12 years, Pete Lembo has ground out winning season after winning season, and I expect him to do so again in 2013. The attrition on the offensive line and in the kicking unit is particularly worrisome considering how important those two units were to Ball State's success, and because of that I don't see BSU putting together a serious threat to win the MAC West. But with a positive home schedule and winnable road trips to North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Akron, bowl eligibility is likely. Plus, I'm willing to bet on proven track records.

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