2013 Bowling Green football's 10 things to know: We're ready

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Bowling Green is ready

They have been to five bowls in 10 years. They have won at least six games in nine of the last 12. In a conference of extreme parity, the Bowling Green Falcons have, aside from a 2-10 crater in 2010, been rather consistently solid. But they've rarely been the most solid team in the conference. They haven't been to a MAC title game since the epic 2003 shootout between Ben Roethlisberger's No. 14 Miami (Ohio) Redhawks and Josh Harris's No. 20 Falcons, and they haven't secured a conference title since 1992. Even in the Urban Meyer years, they couldn't quite seal the deal.

I don't want to claim that this is the year BGSU's title streak comes to an end. There are plenty of MAC teams with a strong shot at the top spot -- the usual suspects (Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ohio), the upstarts (Central Michigan, Buffalo), the encores (Kent State, Ball State), and the bouncebacks (Western Michigan) might all have roles to play in what should be a really fun race. All I can say for sure, though, is that Bowling Green had one of the best mid-major defenses in the country last season and will bring one of the most experienced FBS two-deeps to the table in 2013.

The offense can expect to improve, and there is a good chance that the defense might retain the form it maintained over the final two-thirds of 2012. And if that happens, Bowling Green might have its best shot at a MAC title since Urban Meyer left. Dave Clawson has overseen the rebuilding of a program that is now quite deep and interesting. And now we get to see just how high his team's ceiling is (or, technically, isn't).

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 67
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	at Florida	14-27	L	28.0 - 32.2	L
8-Sep	Idaho	21-13	W	22.9 - 41.1	L
15-Sep	at Toledo	15-27	L	22.9 - 32.5	L
22-Sep	at Virginia Tech	0-37	L	18.0 - 34.4	L
29-Sep	Rhode Island	48-8	W	32.3 - 12.5	W
6-Oct	at Akron	24-10	W	31.1 - 18.1	W
13-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	37-12	W	33.8 - 16.9	W
20-Oct	at Massachusetts	24-0	W	11.9 - 1.3	W
27-Oct	Eastern Michigan	24-3	W	20.5 - 13.6	W
7-Nov	at Ohio	26-14	W	25.8 - 12.4	W
17-Nov	Kent State	24-31	L	27.9 - 32.5	L
23-Nov	Buffalo	21-7	W	20.2 - 12.0	W
27-Dec	vs. San Jose State	20-29	L	20.2 - 24.4	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	22.9	94	16.8	10
Adj. Points Per Game	24.3	98	21.8	18

2. The lightbulb came on

With a young team and an absolutely brutal September slate that featured trips to Gainesville, Toledo and Blacksburg, Bowling Green struggled early in 2012. Granted, the Falcons were perfectly competitive against Florida (they were tied, 14-14, deep into the third quarter, but that was basically par for the course for Florida) and Toledo, but they also looked iffy in creeping by an awful Idaho team, and they got romped by a mediocre Virginia Tech squad. Through four games, BGSU had shown minimal hints of what was to come on the defensive side of the ball.

Adj. Points per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 35.1, Bowling Green 23.0 (minus-12.1)
Adj. Points per Game (next 6 games): Bowling Green 25.9, Opponent 12.5 (plus-13.4)
Adj. Points per Game (last 3 games): Opponent 23.0, Bowling Green 22.8 (minus-0.2)

The offense faded late, and the defense regressed toward the mean a bit, but the Bowling Green of the final nine games of the season, one that barely lost to Kent State and had a tremendous San Jose State team on the ropes for most of the Military Bowl, was excellent. The offense was never anything better than average, but oh, that defense. BGSU allowed just 118 yards to UMass, 171 to Rhode Island, 178 to Eastern Michigan, 197 to Buffalo, 244 to Ohio, and 256 to Miami (Ohio). Better offenses (i.e. Kent State and San Jose State) figured out ways to move the ball, of course, but Bowling Green's performance against these lesser offenses was above and beyond what most teams managed.

That defense, by the way, returns all but two players from last year's three-deep.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	93	101	97	100
RUSHING	64	84	68	98
PASSING	83	104	110	98
Standard Downs		88	84	89
Passing Downs		104	94	106
Redzone		88	70	103

Q1 Rk	92	1st Down Rk	79
Q2 Rk	120	2nd Down Rk	119
Q3 Rk	74	3rd Down Rk	90
Q4 Rk	100

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Matt Schilz	6'3, 220	Sr.	*** (5.6)	228	413	2,585	55.2%	14	12	13	3.1%	5.9
Matt Johnson	6'0, 210	So.	*** (5.5)	10	28	119	35.7%	1	1	2	6.7%	3.8
James Knapke	6'2, 205	RSFr.	** (5.2)

3. Does experience fix inefficiency?

The offense was the issue in 2012. Bowling Green was reasonably efficient on the ground (and lacking in big-play capability), but the biggest issue at hand was woeful inefficiency through the air. Matt Schilz completed just 55 percent of his passes (at just 11.3 yards per completion) despite minimal pass rush; his options were low-efficiency explosiveness (receivers Chris Gallon and Shaun Joplin 14.5 yards per catch with just a 53 percent catch rate) or sure passes to lesser targets that went nowhere.

The good news is that just about everybody related to the passing game returns: Schilz, the top eight receivers/tight ends, four starters on the line. From a chemistry standpoint, experience is a wonderful thing, and familiarity alone could raise Gallon's and Joplin's catch rates closer to 60 percent. But sometimes new blood is a good thing, too. With a depth chart that takes shape almost exactly like last year's, you've got a lot of known quantities. That's not necessarily a good thing when they are known quantities from a terribly inefficient offense.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Anthon Samuel	RB	5'11, 188	Jr.	** (5.3)	202	998	4.9	4.9	11	-4.9
John Pettigrew	RB				128	562	4.4	3.8	6	-9.0
Jamel Martin	RB	5'10, 194	Jr.	*** (5.6)	39	205	5.3	3.8	0	+0.7
Andre Givens	RB	5'9, 190	So.	*** (5.7)	20	134	6.7	10.2	1	+2.5
Matt Schilz	QB	6'3, 220	Sr.	*** (5.6)	19	73	3.8	2.3	1	-1.9
Jordan Hopgood	RB	5'11, 215	Sr.	** (5.3)	9	74	8.2	3.2	0	+1.1
Matt Johnson	QB	6'0, 210	So.	*** (5.5)	6	29	4.8	1.7	0	+0.1
Fred Coppet	RB	5'9, 176	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Marcus Levy	RB	5'10, 187	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Brandon English	RB	5'9, 189	Fr.	** (5.4)

4. A stable of backs

From SB Nation's Hustle Belt in January:

Anthon Samuel has gone through way too much real life for a 19-year-old. He saw his father murdered when he was 7 years old. I can stop the list right there: that's way too much already. But he's also a husband and father. Again, he's only a teenager. Additionally he's grown into a fine football player, winning MAC Freshman of the Year in 2011 and serving as their best offensive player.

The Toledo Blade reported that Samuel didn't enroll for classes this spring in order to spend more time with his wife and child, both who reside in his home state of Florida.

It is really, really easy to root for Anthon Samuel. He is potentially expected back in Bowling Green in time for the fall, but one has to wonder if that is going to happen. One also has to hate following up on his real-world circumstances with "What this means for Bowling Green's depth chart" speculation on the off-chance that Samuel doesn't return to Ohio.

But know this: BGSU is set no matter what happens with Samuel. Behind him last year were two interesting options in Jamel Martin (who was lost for the season to injury after seven games), Andre Givens (who was hobbled on and off in his own right), and veteran Jordan Hopgood (who played a larger role before the emergence of Martin and Givens). Plus, Clawson signed a host of interesting backs, including star recruits Fred Coppet and Marcus Levy. Quite a few backs will see the ball this fall, whether Samuel returns or not.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Chris Gallon	WR-Z	6'4, 221	So.	*** (5.7)	99	54	720	54.5%	7.3	24.4%	49.5%	7.8	78.5
Shaun Joplin	WR-X	6'2, 197	Sr.	NR	79	40	639	50.6%	8.1	19.5%	55.7%	8.1	69.6
Alex Bayer	TE	6'4, 253	Sr.	** (5.3)	57	36	410	63.2%	7.2	14.1%	56.1%	7.2	44.7
Ryan Burbrink	SLOT	5'8, 181	So.	** (5.4)	57	39	351	68.4%	6.2	14.1%	54.4%	6.3	38.3
Je`Ron Stokes	SLOT	6'1, 198	Sr.	**** (5.9)	34	15	114	44.1%	3.4	8.4%	58.8%	3.4	12.4
Anthon Samuel	RB	5'11, 188	Jr.	** (5.3)	33	22	198	66.7%	6.0	8.1%	66.7%	6.0	21.6
John Pettigrew	RB				12	8	71	66.7%	5.9	3.0%	25.0%	6.7	7.7
Jermal Hosley	WR	5'8, 183	So.	** (5.4)	8	5	62	62.5%	7.8	2.0%	50.0%	8.6	6.8
Tyler Beck	FB	6'2, 259	Sr.	** (5.2)	7	5	60	71.4%	8.6	1.7%	71.4%	7.4	6.5
Herve Coby	WR-X	5'11, 177	So.	*** (5.6)	6	3	40	50.0%	6.7	1.5%	83.3%	10.1	4.4
Jordan Hopgood	RB	5'11, 215	Sr.	** (5.3)	5	5	49	100.0%	9.8	1.2%	40.0%	10.4	5.3
Jamel Martin	RB	5'10, 194	Jr.	*** (5.6)	4	3	19	75.0%	4.8	1.0%	50.0%	5.4	2.1
Heath Jackson	WR	5'11, 180	Jr.	** (5.3)	3	3	32	100.0%	10.7	0.7%	33.3%	8.8	3.5
Logan Larson	TE	6'4, 255	Fr.	** (5.4)
Teo Redding	WR	6'2, 170	Fr.	** (5.4)
Mike Rogers	WR	6'1, 190	Fr.	** (5.4)

5. Watch Chris Gallon

He was perhaps leaned on a bit more than he should have been as a redshirt freshman, but that's what happens when you've got a young receiving corps and other youngsters are dropping like flies -- Jermal Hosley (two games), Herve Coby (four), and Heath Jackson (one) each barely played because of injury. Still, Gallon held his own, managed a reasonable per-target rate of over seven yards (not great, certainly not terrible), and had his moments. He caught six of eight passes for 89 yards against Idaho, caught two touchdown passes against Rhode Island, reeled in a 55-yard touchdown against Ohio (his only catch among four targets), and in his masterpiece, he caught 10 of 16 passes for 213 yards and two scores against a solid Kent State defense. Gallon is a big target, one of many in this receiving corps, and he is a player to watch. It would help if he got a steadier contribution from the slot receivers, but he could thrive regardless.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.0	2.93	2.99	40.7%	71.8%	22.8%	154.0	3.3%	3.5%
Rank	84	71	80	45	43	108	23	39	19

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Jordon Roussos	RT				32 career starts; 2012 2nd All-MAC
Dominic Flewellyn	LG	6'3, 293	Sr.	** (5.3)	33 career starts; 2012 3rd All-MAC
Chip Robinson	LG				22 career starts
Fahn Cooper	LT	6'4, 300	So.	** (5.4)	13 career starts
David "Chief" Kekuewa	C	6'2, 308	Sr.	** (5.4)	13 career starts
Alex Huettel	RG	6'3, 291	So.	*** (5.5)	13 career starts
Dominique Wharton	RG				10 career starts
Darion Delaney	LT	6'3, 303	Jr.	** (5.3)
Spencer Cairo	C	6'2, 289	So.	NR
Scott Hodges	RT
Christian Piazza	LT	6'7, 281	So.	*** (5.5)
Logan Dietz	OL	6'5, 285	RSFr.	** (5.3)
Jacob Bennett	OL	6'4, 307	RSFr.	** (5.4)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	6	42	33	49
RUSHING	12	51	39	59
PASSING	13	33	31	35
Standard Downs		48	32	54
Passing Downs		43	46	39
Redzone		95	105	78

Q1 Rk	31	1st Down Rk	35
Q2 Rk	64	2nd Down Rk	80
Q3 Rk	23	3rd Down Rk	22
Q4 Rk	41

6. The nation's best mid-major defense?

Obviously with Boise State still filling the "mid-major" ranks and Utah State potentially maintaining some semblance of defensive strength despite the loss of its head coach (and BYU still qualifying as a mid-major to many), the title of "Best Mid-Major Defense" is probably indeed taken. But BGSU played at a Boise State (or better) level for most of the last two months of the season, posted outstanding line stats, and managed solid full-year stats overall despite the September struggles, and again, the defense returns almost literally everybody from last year.

The two losses, however, are noteworthy. First, you've got tackle Chris Jones, the MAC defensive player of the year and a wonderfully disruptive interior force; then, you've got Dwayne Woods, the steady quarterback of an aggressive linebacking corps. Both units in the front seven were deep last year, and are even deeper this year when you look at the experience involved; still, Jones and Woods were probably among BGSU's 3-4 best defensive players, and their departure means it isn't a slam dunk that BGSU maintains the same torrid defensive pace it had last year.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.1	2.34	3.02	33.2%	60.6%	24.8%	134.1	6.7%	9.2%
Rank	21	5	41	10	21	10	18	15	21

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chris Jones	DT				13	34.5	5.3%	19	12.5	0	1	2	2
Ted Ouellet	NT	6'3, 282	Sr.	** (4.9)	13	27.0	4.1%	6	3	0	0	0	0
Charlie Walker	DE	6'2, 238	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	26.0	4.0%	6	2.5	0	2	1	0
Bryan Thomas	DE	6'2, 260	So.	** (5.2)	13	24.0	3.7%	8	3.5	0	0	0	0
Zach Colvin	DT	6'2, 268	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	11.0	1.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Bryan Baird	DE	6'3, 237	So.	** (5.4)	11	10.5	1.6%	3	2	0	0	0	1
Ronnie Goble	DE	6'2, 247	Sr.	** (5.2)	12	8.5	1.3%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Jairus Campbell	DT	6'5, 310	Sr.	** (5.3)	3	3.0	0.5%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Taylor Royster	NT	5'9, 252	So.	NR	9	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Minns	DT	5'10, 317	So.	*** (5.5)	3	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shaq Hall	DE	6'3, 256	So.	** (5.2)	3	0.0	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darius Holiday	DT	6'5, 260	Fr.	** (5.4)

7. The Suh Effect

Chris Jones had at least 2.0 tackles for loss in six games last year and finished the season with one of the best TFL totals in the country. He was most certainly not alone in his disruptive ability -- the three other line starters combined for another 20 tackles for loss, and the backups pitched in with another six. Still, anytime you find yourself saying "Sure, they lost their best defensive player, but they should still improve," you should pause and reflect.

With two former three-star recruits among those vying to take some of his playing time, and with the return of nose tackle Ted Ouellet and a host of interesting ends, it is not a guarantee that BGSU will miss Jones a tremendous amount. But losing a difference maker of this caliber is always a red flag.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Gabe Martin	ROV	6'1, 224	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	55.0	8.4%	8.5	4.5	1	5	2	0
Dwayne Woods	MLB				12	50.5	7.8%	8.5	2	1	4	0	0
D.J. Lynch	BUCK	5'11, 242	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	48.0	7.4%	6	2	0	3	0	1
Paul Swan	BUCK	6'0, 230	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	48.0	7.4%	6.5	1	0	0	1	0
Brian Sutton	ROV	6'0, 190	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	17.5	2.7%	1.5	1	0	0	0	0
Trenton Greene	LB	5'9, 195	So.	NR	13	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Coy Brown III	MLB	5'11, 214	So.	** (5.4)	7	4.0	0.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Zac Bartman	LB	5'11, 215	RSFr.	NR
Paul Senn	LB	6'1, 230	Jr.	** (5.2)
Patric Hannon	LB	6'1, 210	Fr.	** (5.4)
Nate Locke	LB	6'0, 214	Fr.	** (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cameron Truss	CB	5'10, 182	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	56.5	8.7%	0.5	0	0	5	1	1
Ryland Ward	WS	5'10, 198	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	45.5	7.0%	1	0	0	4	1	0
Booboo Gates	SS	5'11, 213	Sr.	** (5.3)	12	37.5	5.8%	1	0	2	1	1	1
Josh Pettus	SS	5'9, 203	Sr.	*** (5.5)	11	25.5	3.9%	1.5	0	1	0	1	2
Jude Adjei-Barimah	WS	5'10, 205	Jr.	** (5.3)	13	25.5	3.9%	1.5	0	4	7	1	1
Darrell Hunter	CB	5'8, 177	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	21.5	3.3%	0	0	1	1	0	0
DeVon McKoy	CB	5'10, 178	Jr.	** (5.4)	11	18.0	2.8%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Aaron Foster	WS	5'10, 202	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	14.0	2.2%	2.5	2.5	0	6	0	2
Victor Osborne	DB	5'10, 182	Jr.	NR	12	11.0	1.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Ford	DB	6'1, 210	Jr.	** (5.4)	8	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Will Watson	CB	5'11, 175	So.	*** (5.5)	10	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Johnny Joseph	CB	5'7, 169	Jr.	** (5.2)	4	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Mark Mays	DB	5'9, 189	Sr.	** (5.3)	1	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
James Sanford	DB	6'1, 186	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Isaiah Gourdine	DB	6'2, 195	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Aaron Banks	DB	6'3, 200	Fr.	** (5.4)

8. What does Bowling Green do that others don't?

As the defense began to surge last season, the reasons for the improvement were ... less than satisfying.

"The things people don’t see are their attention to detail and the effort that those guys practice with," Clawson said of the defense. "We present them with preliminary scheme on Sunday and have Monday off.

"The past two years Tuesdays have been a mess. It goes to show how coach-able those guys are. They know the game-plan and they know the checks and they know the offensive formations.

"Those guys have grown up."

I'm sure every word of that was true. But every coach in the country strives for "attention to detail" and "coach-ability" and good practices. But really, the statistics don't point to an answer that is anymore satisfying than that.

Bowling Green was quite efficient on standard downs and steadily leveraged opponents into passing downs. On passing downs, the Falcons minimized big plays through both sure tackling and a good pass rush. Every unit in the defense was quite experienced (and will be even more experienced in 2013), stocked with players who were at least in their second years as contributors, and every unit had disruptive forces -- Jones and the ends up front, four linebackers logging at least 6.0 tackles for loss in the middle, and a foursome of quality safeties capable of either ball-hawking or flying to the line of scrimmage in a given play. With Rovers, WS (weakside safeties) and the like, Clawson and defensive coordinator Mike Elko use the terminology of the old 4-4 defense, one that was predicated on speed and aggressiveness. And with both depth and options, BGSU's defense played like a 4-4 defense as well. It's kind of a boring answer -- "be well-coached, smart and aggressive" -- but it's the only answer I can derive.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Brian Schmiedebusch	6'3, 226	Sr.	72	40.8	12	10	24	47.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Anthony Farinella	6'3, 180	So.	54	58.0	7	13.0%
Stephen Stein			6	45.7	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Stephen Stein			30-31	2-6	33.3%	0-1	0.0%
Tyler Tate	5'11, 175	So.	5-6	6-8	75.0%	1-2	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Booboo Gates	KR	5'11, 213	Sr.	19	19.4	0
John Pettigrew	KR			15	20.7	0
Ryan Burbrink	PR	5'8, 181	So.	19	8.9	0
Booboo Gates	PR	5'11, 213	Sr.	2	41.0	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	95
Net Punting	98
Net Kickoffs	115
Touchback Pct	118
Field Goal Pct	120
Kick Returns Avg	90
Punt Returns Avg	42

9. Coverage matters

There wasn't too much to love about BGSU's special teams unit in 2012 -- Ryan Burbrink was a steady punt return man, Booboo Gates hinted at some lovely explosiveness in that regard, and when Tyler Tate was attempting field goals instead of Stephen Stein, that unit was fine. But coverage was an issue. Anthony Farinella couldn't get kickoffs into the end zone with any regularity, and the coverage units were lacking on both kicks and punts. That typically hints at a problem with your depth of athleticism -- since, as much as possible, you're going to be using backups in coverage roles -- but looking ta BGSU's defense, that's not necessarily the problem. Whatever the problem actually was, fixing it could help tremendously. Because of the defense, BGSU still ranked 24th in Field Position Advantage despite the leaks. Tackling the return man more reliably might get them into the Top 15.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	Tulsa	56
7-Sep	at Kent State	80
14-Sep	at Indiana	70
21-Sep	Murray State	NR
28-Sep	Akron	120
5-Oct	Massachusetts	124
12-Oct	at Mississippi State	51
26-Oct	Toledo	62
5-Nov	at Miami (Ohio)	106
12-Nov	Ohio	83
23-Nov	at Eastern Michigan	118
29-Nov	at Buffalo	101

Five-Year F/+ Rk	84
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	93
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+4 / +9.0
TO Luck/Game	-1.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	19 (10, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-1.7

10. Guaranteed improvement

Okay, nothing is guaranteed in life or football, but returning 19 starters results in relatively significant improvement a good portion of the time in college football. We tend to overthink when it comes to returning starters, and parsing between the significance of 10 returners versus 12, or 12 versus 13, is not very fruitful.

But the extremes usually mean something. Boise State and Air Force returned almost no starters in 2012 and regressed. Meanwhile, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Bowling Green and Indiana returned a ton of talent and improved a decent amount. (Of course, Boston College and FIU also returned a lot of starters.) Now BGSU returns another batch of experienced talent.

Will they take another hefty step forward, or will the experience just help them shore up last year's gains? The answer to that question could determine whether the Falcons' two-decade conference title drought comes to an end.

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• Jeopardy with Derek Dooley

• College football recruiting coverage