College Football

2013 UMass football's 10 things to know: Awkward timing, extreme youth

Can the Minutemen improve on just about the worst debut possible? Schedule, roster, projections and more below.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Mar 6, 2013, 9:40am EST

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Timing is everything.

The University of Massachusetts announced on April 20, 2011, that its football team would move up to FBS. At that point, the Minutemen were just three seasons removed from a CAA conference title and four seasons removed from a trip to the FCS national title game. If it had joined the MAC in 2006, the breaking-in period may have gone reasonably well. UMass ranked 59th in the 2006 Sagarin rankings, ahead of every MAC school but Central Michigan. In 2007, they ranked 77th, ahead of everybody (unless I missed someone).

By 2011, however, the program had lost a little bit of steam. Head coach Don Brown left Amherst to become Ralph Friedgen's defensive coordinator at Maryland, and Kevin Morris went just 5-6 in 2009 and 6-5 in 2010. The Minutemen went 5-6 again in 2011, and Morris was replaced by former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Charley Molnar. Insert a ton of injuries, put onto the field one of the most ridiculously young teams ever, and you have just about the worst FBS debut season imaginable.

Timing really hasn't been UMass' thing -- one could argue that the program should have made the FBS move 50 years ago -- but wow, was the timing bad in 2012. What seemed at one time to be a logical, well-timed decision quickly turned into a nightmare. It was so bad that, to some faculty, UMass' stay at the FBS level should have been cut very, very short.

2. It's not a good sign when the response to your first FBS season is a vote to leave FBS.

UMass Faculty Senate motion to leave FBS falls a vote short.

Back in December the Faculty Senate at Massachusetts voiced its concern over the increase of money the school was spending on its football program following a move from the FCS level to the FBS level. On Thursday, the Faculty Senate voted on a motion to have UMass football leave the FBS level and that motion failed by one vote.

The motion was beaten by a 19-18 vote with one abstention. Absent from the vote was professor Max Page. He had been the most vocal critic of the school's move to the FBS but was out of the country on Thursday and could not vote.

"Whatever else might be said of the 2011 decision to move to the next level, it was never presented as a one-year experiment," said chancellor Kumble Subbaswamy at Thursday's meeting. "It simply couldn't be. Like many decisions I inherited, it is my job to ensure the program's success in a responsible manner. That's what I intend to do. I have been consistent in this position. As with any major campus initiative we will carefully monitor the progress and the financial commitments associated with the process to ensure that the best interests of the university as a whole are always at the forefront."

Or, to put it another way, UMass football edges faculty for second FBS victory.

(Matt Sussman is awesome, by the way.)

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 \| Adj. Record: 0-12 \| Final F/+ Rk: 122
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
30-Aug	at Connecticut	0-37	L	(-4.7) - 37.1	L
8-Sep	Indiana	6-45	L	11.2 - 35.4	L
15-Sep	at Michigan	13-63	L	18.6 - 47.9	L
22-Sep	at Miami (Ohio)	16-27	L	20.6 - 31.3	L
29-Sep	Ohio	34-37	L	32.1 - 33.2	L
6-Oct	at Western Michigan	14-52	L	16.8 - 44.3	L
20-Oct	Bowling Green	0-24	L	(-1.2) - 18.9	L
27-Oct	at Vanderbilt	7-49	L	19.3 - 43.8	L
3-Nov	at Northern Illinois	0-63	L	14.7 - 43.6	L
10-Nov	at Akron	22-14	W	18.9 - 29.4	L
17-Nov	Buffalo	19-29	L	15.6 - 34.0	L
23-Nov	Central Michigan	21-42	L	17.2 - 33.2	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	12.7	124	40.2	121
Adj. Points Per Game	14.9	124	36.0	118

3. This team never had a chance in 2012.

Even with no injuries, this team wasn't going to be very good in its first FBS season. The team was too young, there was not enough FBS-level talent (even with the addition of some late senior transfers), and the new coaching staff was attempting to get its footing. But then quarterback Kellen Pagel was lost for the season to concussion-related issues (he is now on the UMass baseball roster, not the football roster), leaving two freshmen in his place. And the offensive line dealt with injuries and extreme youth. And the secondary dealt with xtreme-with-an-x youth. And after losing the top five 2011 targets from the receiving corps, almost nobody stepped up when given opportunities to make a mark. (The quarterback issues didn't help.) And a team that probably wasn't good enough to rank better than about 105th or 110th in the F/+ rankings instead became one of the two or three worst teams in the country.

If you're looking for a ceiling, however, look toward one specific game.

4. UMass almost beat Ohio.

Against an undefeated Ohio squad that had beaten Penn State about a month earlier, in front of a paltry 8,321 fans at Gillette Stadium, UMass almost pulled off a miracle.

The Minutemen gained 511 yards on a faltering Ohio defense, threw for 373 yards, moved the chains 28 times, took a 27-20 lead into the fourth quarter, faltered, rallied, and got to the Ohio 45-yard line with about 30 seconds left. But four straight incompletions ended an upset bid, and Ohio held on, 37-34. Quarterback Mike Wegzyn completed 27 of 51 passes for 373 yards and four scores, but it wasn't enough. We briefly got a glimpse of the potential of UMass' pistol attack, but that was just about the last time we would see potential in 2012.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	124	121	121	123
RUSHING	118	119	119	118
PASSING	103	123	119	123
Standard Downs		123	121	123
Passing Downs		113	117	108
Redzone		119	117	117

Q1 Rk	118	1st Down Rk	124
Q2 Rk	119	2nd Down Rk	124
Q3 Rk	120	3rd Down Rk	98
Q4 Rk	124

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Mike Wegzyn

6'5, 215

So.

** (5.4)

182

346

1,825

52.6%

6.7%

4.5

A.J. Doyle

6'3, 226

So.

*** (5.5)

419

57.1%

6.7%

3.4

Ian Shultis

0.0%

0.0

Brandon Hill

6'5, 218

Jr.

Todd Stafford

6'6, 240

Fr.

** (5.4)

5. Continuity would be a start.

Two freshmen got time at quarterback, four freshmen got opportunities at receiver, and four freshmen started at least one game on the line. The lineup we saw was not what we were supposed to see, but injuries were devastating to the UMass charge in 2012.

Some improved injury luck might allow the Minutemen to take advantage of what could be a lovely base of experience. This will be the case in 2014 more than 2013, probably, but this fall we'll still see a couple of interesting quarterbacks getting longer looks (both Mike Wegzyn and A.J. Doyle showcased at least a little bit of running ability and never had a chance to prove themselves as passers with this line and this receiving corps). We'll also see a potentially interesting corps of running backs, one that should include star freshman Lorenzo Woodley. The Minutemen almost certainly aren't going to win many games in 2013, but continuity and further experience could pay off dramatically in coming seasons.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Michael Cox	RB				198	710	3.6	3.9	5	-31.6
Mike Wegzyn	QB	6'5, 215	So.	** (5.4)	68	298	4.4	3.0	2	-7.5
Jordan Broadnax	RB	5'9, 175	Jr.	NR	51	138	2.7	2.0	1	-12.3
A.J. Doyle	QB	6'3, 226	So.	*** (5.5)	20	94	4.7	4.4	0	-0.7
Jamal Wilson	RB	5'10, 190	So.	NR	17	48	2.8	2.6	0	-3.8
Chris Burns	RB				14	20	1.4	2.8	0	-4.3
Stacey Bedell	RB	5'10, 180	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Lorenzo Woodley	RB	6'0, 210	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Deion Walker

667

63.4%

7.2

22.6%

57.0%

7.2

67.6

Alan Williams

450

58.3%

6.3

17.5%

50.0%

6.0

45.6

Rob Blanchflower

6'4, 250

Sr.

464

61.4%

6.6

17.0%

50.0%

6.3

47.0

Tajae Sharpe

6'2, 175

So.

** (5.4)

206

39.2%

4.0

12.4%

51.0%

4.1

20.9

Marken Michel

5'10, 185

Jr.

*** (5.5)

229

59.6%

4.9

11.4%

46.8%

5.1

23.2

Jordan Broadnax

5'9, 175

Jr.

58.3%

3.4

5.8%

70.8%

3.8

8.2

Michael Cox

72.2%

3.5

4.4%

50.0%

3.7

6.4

Bernard Davis

6'1, 180

So.

** (5.4)

54.5%

2.9

2.7%

63.6%

3.0

3.2

Derek Beck

6'4, 205

So.

37.5%

2.5

1.9%

37.5%

2.1

2.0

Elgin Long

5'10, 189

So.

-3

42.9%

-0.4

1.7%

71.4%

-0.4

-0.3

Brian Dowling

20.0%

1.2

1.2%

80.0%

0.9

0.6

Chris Burns

100.0%

6.5

0.5%

0.0%

2.6

1.3

Ricardo Miller (Michigan)

6'4, 226

Sr.

*** (5.7)

Rodney Mills

6'1, 205

RSFr.

** (5.4)

Dalvin Battle

5'10, 175

RSFr.

** (5.4)

Shaquille Harris

6'2, 185

Fr.

** (5.4)

D.J. Woods

5'10, 160

Fr.

** (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	83.0	1.84	3.96	34.4%	54.8%	27.2%	87.2	2.9%	10.2%
Rank	115	124	6	109	116	122	78	30	107

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Stephane Milhim	LT				37 career starts
Nick Speller	LG				30 career starts
Quinton Sales	C				27 career starts
Anthony Dima	RT	6'7, 302	Sr.	NR	20 career starts
Michael Boland	LG	6'7, 295	So.	** (5.3)	6 career starts
John Wallace	LG				4 career starts
Al Leneus	RG	6'2, 295	So.	NR	2 career starts
Jamie Cassleberry	RG	6'6, 280	So.	NR	2 career starts
Matt Sparks	LG	6'4, 275	So.	** (5.2)	1 career start
Vincent Westcarr	LT	6'4, 308	Sr.	NR
Tyrell Smith	RG	6'5, 285	So.	** (5.2)
Malcolm Speller	LT
Josh Bruns	OL	6'5, 290	Jr.	** (5.2)
Sam Zeff	OL	6'5, 277	Fr.	** (5.4)
Jordan Page	OL	6'5, 302	Fr.	** (5.4)

6. The offensive line was crazy-young last year.

This time last year, UMass boasted three two-year starters on the line, which looked like a potential strength for an offense in need of one. The unit was still pretty awful, however (especially in run blocking), in part because of injuries. Nine players started at least one game, including four freshmen/redshirt freshmen. The pass protection was not horrible, but UMass was the worst in the country at opening holes on standard downs.

And now the Minutemen must replace their three most experienced starters.

Big Anthony Dima returns to anchor what will still be one of the younger lines in college football. UMass returns 31 career starts, 11 of which came from players who are now sophomores. This isn't a recipe for improvement, but with a load of sophomores and a new offensive line coach (former Cincinnati assistant Dave Johnson), things certainly look pretty good for 2014 and beyond. That's something.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	104	123	123	119
RUSHING	117	124	122	124
PASSING	67	119	122	110
Standard Downs		124	124	120
Passing Downs		113	99	114
Redzone		122	122	122

Q1 Rk	116	1st Down Rk	108
Q2 Rk	116	2nd Down Rk	121
Q3 Rk	111	3rd Down Rk	115
Q4 Rk	111

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	82.2	3.30	3.84	43.3%	75.0%	15.8%	60.1	3.1%	2.9%
Rank	121	111	115	113	106	105	118	105	117

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Hafis Williams	DT				12	36.5	5.3%	5	0	0	2	1	0
Stanley Andre	DE	6'2, 240	Jr.	** (5.3)	12	28.5	4.1%	4	1	0	0	1	0
Chaz Thompson	DT				12	28.0	4.0%	6	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kevin Byrne	DE	6'3, 290	Sr.	NR	12	20.5	3.0%	4	2	0	0	1	1
Ryan Delaire	DE	6'4, 245	Jr.	NR	8	14.5	2.1%	5	2.5	0	0	1	0
Galen Clemons	DT	6'2, 275	Sr.	NR	9	12.0	1.7%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Trey Seals	DE	6'4, 231	So.	NR	12	7.5	1.1%	1	1	0	1	0	0
Daniel Maynes	DT	6'2, 250	Jr.	NR	6	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Brandon Potvin	DE	6'1, 262	Sr.	NR	12	6.0	0.9%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Robert Kitching	DT	6'1, 300	So.	**	7	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Peter Ngobidi	DE	6'1, 210	Fr.	** (5.4)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Perry McIntyre	ILB				12	96.5	13.9%	7.5	3	0	4	0	0
Kassan Messiah	OLB	6'4, 215	So.	** (5.2)	9	43.5	6.3%	3	1	0	2	0	0
Tom Brandt	OLB	6'0, 215	Sr.	NR	12	29.5	4.2%	1	0	1	0	1	0
Jovan Santos-Knox	OLB	6'2, 235	So.	NR	10	21.5	3.1%	4	0	0	2	0	1
John Robinson	ILB	6'2, 225	So.	** (5.2)	10	8.0	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Tim Brandt	OLB	6'0, 212	Sr.	** (4.9)	10	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Greg Hilliard	LB	6'3, 205	Jr.	NR	3	6.0	0.9%	2	0	0	0	1	1
D.J. Adeoba	LB				4	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rob O'Connor	LB	6'1, 220	Sr.	NR	2	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Darren Thellen	S				12	62.0	8.9%	1	0	3	3	1	0
Randall Jette	CB	5'11, 175	So.	** (5.4)	12	41.5	6.0%	1	0	2	4	0	0
Joe Colton	S	5'10, 187	So.	NR	11	38.0	5.5%	1	0	1	2	2	0
Trey Dudley-Giles	CB	5'11, 170	So.	** (5.4)	11	35.0	5.0%	0.5	0	0	4	0	0
Khary Bailey-Smith	S	6'2, 190	So.	** (5.2)	12	34.0	4.9%	1	0	2	1	1	2
Christian Birt	S	6'2, 197	Sr.	** (4.9)	6	25.0	3.6%	0.5	0	1	0	0	0
Ed Saint-Vil	S	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	5	18.0	2.6%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Antoine Tharpe	CB	5'10, 190	Sr.	NR	5	14.5	2.1%	2	0	1	1	0	0
D'Metrius Williams	CB	6'0, 170	So.	** (5.2)	11	12.5	1.8%	1	0	0	6	1	0
Mike Lee	DB				3	10.0	1.4%	1	0	1	2	0	0
Quayshun Smith	DB	5'9, 160	Jr.	** (5.2)	9	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Brown	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	NR	7	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Iric Harris	DB	5'8, 175	So.	** (5.4)	2	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Arthur Williams	DB	6'3, 190	Fr.	** (5.4)

7. The secondary was crazy-young last year.

Few FBS units had to be shuffled around more than UMass' secondary. Thanks to injuries and attrition, 10 different Minutemen got the chance to record at least 10.0 tackles, only three of the 10 played in all 12 games, and by the end of the season, almost the entire two-deep (six of eight spots) consisted of freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Yikes.

Last year's shuffling, however, could turn into this year's strength. In sophomore corners Randall Jette, Troy Dudley-Giles and D'Metrius Williams, UMass has a trio that combined for two picks, 14 passes broken up, and 2.5 tackles for loss. Throw in four experienced safeties, and you've got a recipe for improvement, especially considering the front seven returns four players who made at least 4.0 tackles for loss last fall. There is almost literally nowhere to go but up for this defense, but overall the UMass D might be the first of the two major units to actually resemble an FBS unit.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Colter Johnson	6'3, 200	Sr.	64	43.8	5	7	16	35.9%
Jeff Strait	6'0, 197	Sr.	9	42.0	0	2	0	22.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Brendon Levengood	6'1, 197	Sr.	39	60.7	10	25.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Blake Lucas	5'8, 160	So.	8-9	7-8	87.5%	0-0	N/A
Brendon Levengood	6'1, 197	Sr.	6-7	3-4	75.0%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jordan Broadnax	KR	5'9, 175	Jr.	44	21.2	0
Marken Michel	KR	5'10, 185	Jr.	9	16.1	0
Trey Dudley-Giles	PR	5'11, 175	So.	14	8.0	0
Brian Dowling	PR			5	1.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	79
Net Punting	86
Net Kickoffs	67
Touchback Pct	95
Field Goal Pct	40
Kick Returns Avg	85
Punt Returns Avg	75

8. Special teams was, and should again be, a relative strength.

UMass' special teams unit was far from perfect -- iffy returns, few touchbacks on kickoffs, iffy punting -- but UMass made 10 of 12 field goals under 40 yards and covered kickoffs well. And in the absence of other strengths, this is something on which you can hang your hat.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Wisconsin	14
7-Sep	Maine	NR
14-Sep	at Kansas State	40
21-Sep	Vanderbilt	49
5-Oct	at Bowling Green	67
12-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	106
19-Oct	at Buffalo	101
26-Oct	Western Michigan	93
2-Nov	Northern Illinois	50
16-Nov	Akron	120
23-Nov	at Central Michigan	96
29-Nov	at Ohio	83

Five-Year F/+ Rk	124
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	124
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-9 / -7.2
TO Luck/Game	-0.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	9 (4, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+10.5

9. Whatever UMass might become, it's still a year away from starting to become it.

The schedule features just four teams projected 100th or worse in the F/+ projections, and only two projected worse than Miami (Ohio) at No. 106. Considering 100th-105th is just about the best UMass can hope for with its continued youth, that suggests that the Minutemen are not going to win many games this fall.

That said, last year's ridiculously young team is still going to be young in 2013; if it sticks together, UMass will have one of the most experienced teams in the MAC come 2014-15. In players like Mike Wegzyn, Lorenzo Woodley, a host of young receivers and offensive linemen, and a defense that will feature perhaps as few as 6-7 seniors on its two-deep, there is a core around which Charley Molnar can build.

We don't know about the overall level of talent yet, and returns aren't amazingly promising, but in a year or two we might find that things are improving swiftly in Amherst.