2013 Florida Atlantic football's 10 things to know: Welcome to Double-A

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Conference realignment is basically minor league baseball

Conference realignment has always been with us, from the SEC emerging from the Southern Conference in the 1930s, to conferences like the Big 8 promoting programs like Colorado and Oklahoma State, to Florida State joining the ACC in the 1990s, to the ACC raiding the Big East in the early 2000s. But it picked up speed dramatically following the Big Ten's announcement of its intended expansion in late-2009.

As we've seen, realignment is based on two things: merit and potential. Merit is easy enough to understand. The Big 12 didn't exactly need to secure the Fort Worth market when it brought TCU aboard, but the Horned Frogs had turned into a stout, nationally relevant program while surfing through just about every mid-major conference, and their bona fides warranted promotion back to a BCS conference. And lord knows Louisville had earned its promotion from Conference USA to the Big East almost a decade ago. Utah, meanwhile, was just a couple of years removed from a BCS bowl title when the Pac-12 invited it to join.

Quite often, though, a conference's decision on which program to promote to its league comes not from merit or production, but from potential. That word can mean a couple of things, really. It could mean market potential -- Rutgers bringing "the New York market" (whatever that actually means) to the Big Ten, for instance -- or it could simply mean that the bones (and potential fanbase) of a program are strong, and that a promotion could make long-term sense even if it looks questionable in the short-term.

In this way, realignment is kind of like minor league baseball, where you've got low-upside journeymen who dominate at a certain level but probably aren't going to get called up because of their minimal potential. At the same time, you've got prospects who don't have to prove quite as much, at least in terms of results and statistics, before moving to the next level. Crash Davis versus Nuke LaLoosh, if you will.

Let's just say that, with a fancy new stadium, a prime location (for both recruits and cable subscribers), and minimal recent success, Florida Atlantic is probably more Nuke than Crash. The Owls improved to 3-9 and 115th in the F/+ rankings in Carl Pelini's first season in Boca Raton. That ended a four-year string of diminishing returns, from a 7-6 record in 2008, to 5-7 in 2009, to 4-8 in 2010, to 1-11 in 2011 (Howard Schnellenberger's final season). Winning 13 games and getting promoted from the Sun Belt to Conference USA, which is basically Double-A ball*.

The potential-versus-merit argument goes a long way toward explaining which teams Conference USA chose to pluck from the high-A ball Sun Belt recently. Here are the Sun Belt standings for the last three seasons (2010-12). The teams Conference USA took are in bold.

Sun Belt Standings (2010-12)
Arkansas State (19-5 conference record)
UL-Lafayette (15-9)
ULM(13-11)
Florida International (13-11)
Western Kentucky (13-11)
Middle Tennessee (12-12)
Troy (11-13)
North Texas (10-14)
Florida Atlantic (5-19)

CUSA also took Louisiana Tech (the most merit-based pick), Charlotte (which is building a football team from scratch), UTSA (which has spent one year at the FBS level), and Old Dominion (which revived its program in 2009). The two best recent Sun Belt teams (ASU and UL-Lafayette) are still in the Sun Belt, as is long-time SBC power Troy. Conference USA made its choices based on potential, and FAU benefited considerably.

At least, FAU might benefit long-term. In the short-term, it joins a conference that, despite the Sun Belt's recent on-field gains, is still a bit deeper overall. That's not a good thing for a team that just improved from the fifth-worst team in FBS (116th in 2012) to the 10th-worst (115th).

* Judging by how realignment has gone, that would make the New Big East (whatever it might be called) Triple-A and the ACC the majors. Yes, the ACC is the majors. It might be Toronto to the SEC's Yankees, but it is still the majors, and it has still only lost one team -- Maryland -- in the realignment process while pilfering six others from the Big East in the last decade.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 115
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
31-Aug	Wagner	7-3	W	14.8 - 29.0	L
8-Sep	at Middle Tennessee	17-31	L	24.2 - 39.5	L
15-Sep	at Georgia	20-56	L	18.3 - 49.6	L
22-Sep	at Alabama	7-40	L	10.7 - 32.0	L
29-Sep	North Texas	14-20	L	17.4 - 22.7	L
13-Oct	at UL-Monroe	14-35	L	15.3 - 28.9	L
20-Oct	at South Alabama	34-37	L	30.5 - 30.6	L
27-Oct	Troy	34-27	W	25.4 - 22.9	W
3-Nov	at Navy	17-24	L	22.3 - 30.0	L
10-Nov	at Western Kentucky	37-28	W	25.2 - 19.2	W
16-Nov	Florida International	24-34	L	21.8 - 32.0	L
1-Dec	UL-Lafayette	21-35	L	41.7 - 28.2	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	20.5	107	30.8	85
Adj. Points Per Game	22.3	112	30.4	87

2. That said, FAU was legitimately decent down the stretch

Here's what I said at the end of my 2012 FAU preview:

My advice to FAU fans: Keep your eyes off the scoreboard in 2012 and just look for signs of growth and optimism. For all we know, you might end up 2014 conference champions, but this fall probably won't be too much fun.

If you waited around long enough, you indeed found some signs of growth. Granted, it took a while, but over the last half of the season, Florida Atlantic was something approaching a decent team. The results did not necessarily reflect this, but the growth was real.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): Opponent 33.6, FAU 16.8 (minus-16.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 6 games): FAU 27.8, Opponent 27.2 (plus-0.6)

Again, the goal of Adj. Points is to reflect how a team would have fared against a perfectly average team, with a perfectly average number of breaks, each week. Adj. Points suggest that FAU was actually an average (or slightly above average) team from late-October on. The Owls stunned both Troy and Western Kentucky, nearly took out Navy, and played well in a late loss to UL-Lafayette. The improvement was strong on the defensive side of the ball and dramatic on the offensive side. And while quarterback Graham Wilbert has graduated (which could stunt a little bit of the growth), one of the primary reasons for the offensive surge was junior receiver William Dukes (first 5 games: 18 catches, 224 yards; last 7 games: 45 catches, 755 yards), who is back in blue and red in 2013.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	101	114	105	114
RUSHING	111	116	110	115
PASSING	61	100	90	103
Standard Downs		112	104	111
Passing Downs		103	81	111
Redzone		107	85	113

Q1 Rk	104	1st Down Rk	96
Q2 Rk	122	2nd Down Rk	122
Q3 Rk	107	3rd Down Rk	87
Q4 Rk	44

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Graham Wilbert				261	405	2,819	64.4%	18	6	26	6.0%	6.2
Stephen Curtis	6'3, 225	Jr.	*** (5.5)	4	10	37	40.0%	0	0	0	0.0%	3.7
Melvin German III	6'2, 210	Sr.	*** (5.5)
Quez Johnson	6'1, 225	Jr.	** (5.3)

3. Is there a quarterback?

Graham Wilbert took too many sacks and didn't really go anywhere with most of his passes (10.8 yards per completion, 9.3 to players not named Dukes), but he turned into a relatively efficient, mistake-free hub for the FAU passing game in 2012. His TD-to-INT ratio was lovely, as was his 64 percent completion rate. He avoided disaster in the passing game, at least, but he's gone. In 2013, it appears that there is a three-man race for the starting quarterback job between junior Stephen Curtis, senior Melvin German III and junior college transfer Quez Johnson. Dukes should make the winner's job relatively easy, but the winner will still have to avoid disaster. We'll see.

(Johnson has spent quite a bit of time with the first string, for what that's worth.)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Jonathan Wallace	RB	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	175	668	3.8	3.4	0	-18.2
Damian Fortner	RB	5'10, 200	Sr.	** (5.1)	90	313	3.5	3.8	0	-12.1
Martese Jackson	RB	5'6, 165	Sr.	** (5.4)	47	224	4.8	6.9	0	-6.4
Graham Wilbert	QB				38	195	5.1	4.8	0	-0.5
Travis Jones	RB	5'11, 190	Sr.	** (5.3)	14	80	5.7	13.2	0	-1.1
Stephen Curtis	QB	6'3, 225	Jr.	*** (5.5)	10	34	3.4	0.8	0	-3.1

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
William Dukes	WR-Z	6'4, 190	Jr.	** (5.4)	94	63	978	67.0%	10.4	23.6%	59.6%	10.4	117.1
DeAndre Richardson (2011)	WR-X	6'2, 180	Sr.	** (5.2)	71	32	269	45.1%	3.8	21.7%	66.2%	3.9	58.9
Byron Hankerson	WR-W	6'0, 205	Sr.	*** (5.7)	51	27	344	52.9%	6.7	12.8%	60.8%	6.7	41.2
Nexon Dorvilus	WR-X				44	30	301	68.2%	6.8	11.1%	56.8%	6.7	36.0
Jonathan Wallace	TE	6'4, 230	Sr.	** (5.4)	30	21	84	70.0%	2.8	7.5%	40.0%	2.4	10.1
Damian Fortner	RB	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	25	21	141	84.0%	5.6	6.3%	32.0%	6.3	16.9
Alex Deleon	RB	5'10, 200	Sr.	** (5.1)	25	13	77	52.0%	3.1	6.3%	64.0%	3.0	9.2
Travis Jones	TE	6'4, 210	Jr.	** (5.2)	23	18	117	78.3%	5.1	5.8%	52.2%	5.1	14.0
Jenson Stoshak	RB	5'11, 190	Sr.	** (5.3)	22	15	259	68.2%	11.8	5.5%	50.0%	12.0	31.0
Marcus Cunningham	WR-X	6'1, 176	So.	** (5.3)	10	4	33	40.0%	3.3	2.5%	60.0%	3.3	4.0
Martese Jackson	WR-Z	6'0, 175	Jr.	** (5.3)	3	2	12	66.7%	4.0	0.8%	33.3%	7.3	1.4
Terrell Mitchell	RB	5'6, 165	Sr.	** (5.4)	3	2	8	66.7%	2.7	0.8%	66.7%	2.4	1.0
Anthony Russell	TE	6'5, 255	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Rodney Whitehead	WR	5'10, 175	Jr.	** (5.3)
Trey Hendrickson	TE	6'4, 222	Fr.	** (5.4)
Kalib Woods	WR	6'3, 185	Fr.	** (5.4)

4. Learn William Dukes' name

One way to understand a receiver's impact is to compare his production to that of his teammates'. If your receiving corps is loaded with great players, and you average 10.0 yards per target, you might be good, but you might be benefiting a lot from the players around you. Or, in William Dukes' case, if your fellow receivers are mostly non-existent, and you still figure out a way to average 10.4 yards per target with no help from anybody else, you are potentially an outright stud.

In the last seven games of the season, passes to Dukes found their mark 45 of 69 times (65 percent) for 755 yards, an average of 10.9 yards per target. Passes to everybody else in an FAU uniform were 135-for-212 (64 percent) for 1,314 yards, an average of just 6.2 yards per target. Dukes was a one-man show, emerging in the middle o the season as a low-efficiency, high-explosiveness guy (he caught just five of 11 passes for 119 yards against South Alabama, for example), then dramatically increasing his efficiency late. In the last four games, he caught 29 of 40 passes (73 percent) for 499 yards (12.5 per target).

One receiver can only make so much of a difference for an offense, especially one that features a new quarterback, iffy running backs, an unproven supporting cast of receivers, and a new line. But one stud is better than none.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	85.2	2.57	2.55	30.5%	71.8%	20.6%	83.7	5.6%	6.0%
Rank	110	111	109	122	43	89	87	77	50

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Andrew Czuprynski	LG				36 career starts
Joseph Bailey	RT				23 career starts
Jimmie Colley	C				20 career starts
DeAndre Williams	LT	6'5, 290	Sr.	** (5.0)	12 career starts
Ricaldo Henry	RG				12 career starts
Mustafa Johnson	C	6'3, 295	Jr.	** (5.4)	11 career starts
Jordan Sessa	LG				3 career starts
Erik Hansen	RG				1 career start
Robert Nasiff	LT	6'4, 265	So.	** (5.4)
Mike Marsaille	RG	6'5, 300	So.	** (5.3)
Vinny Davino	RT	6'5, 260	So.	** (5.3)
Stern Vile	OL	6'5, 335	Sr.	*** (5.5)
Karl James	RG	6'1, 285	Jr.	** (4.9)
Dillon DeBoer	LT	6'5, 245	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Isaac Edwards	LG	6'4, 280	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Braden Lyons	RT	6'5, 295	Jr.	** (5.4)
Austin Bland	OL	6'3, 275	Fr.	*** (5.5)

5. No experience? No problem

At the end of 2012, FAU had eight offensive linemen with starting experience. Six are now gone. This could spell disaster for a unit that was achieving at a high level (without the stud recruits to back that level up). But for an FAU line that failed to produce opportunities for its backs? Perhaps some new blood is a good thing. FAU was pretty good at holding up against blitzes (the short passing game probably didn't hurt), and it actually managed to convert in short-yardage situations (Power Success Rate) pretty well. But this wasn't a line good enough to worry about losing players.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	71	86	84	85
RUSHING	104	89	100	83
PASSING	27	81	52	91
Standard Downs		88	89	89
Passing Downs		81	79	81
Redzone		82	100	57

Q1 Rk	85	1st Down Rk	91
Q2 Rk	75	2nd Down Rk	75
Q3 Rk	63	3rd Down Rk	51
Q4 Rk	90

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.7	3.07	3.58	41.2%	66.7%	18.5%	63.0	2.1%	4.9%
Rank	99	87	98	91	50	80	114	119	93

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trevon Coley	DT	6'2, 225	So.	*** (5.5)	12	28.0	4.4%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
David Baptiste	DE				10	21.5	3.3%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Brandin Bryant	DT	6'2, 260	So.	*** (5.5)	12	21.0	3.3%	4.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
Martin Wright	DE	6'4, 250	Sr.	NR	12	20.5	3.2%	4	1.5	0	0	0	0
Cory Henry	DE	6'3, 238	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	19.5	3.0%	2.5	2	0	0	0	0
Jimmy Jean	DT				11	14.5	2.3%	4	1.5	0	0	1	1
Kayvon Sherrill	DT	6'3, 279	Sr.	NR	9	7.5	1.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Stryffeler	DE	6'5, 260	Sr.	** (5.1)	6	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Robinson Eugene	DE	6'5, 263	So.	** (5.2)	2	2.0	0.3%	2	0	0	0	0	1
Rodney Lamar	DE				6	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Derek Butcher	DT	6'4, 295	So.	** (5.4)
Shalom Ogbonda	DE	6'4, 245	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

6. A 225-pound tackle

Trevon Coley was one of FAU's more highly touted recent recruits, and along with Brandin Bryant (also a freshman in 2012), he carved out a nice on a line that wasn't completely awful, at least in holding up against the run. (It wasn't good, mind you, but it was Top 100, which is something, and it was Top 50 in short yardage situations). He is also 225 pounds, smaller than, basically, all of FAU's defensive ends. His presence in the lineup makes for an interesting line: on the spring two-deep, FAU's defensive ends average 6'4, 253 pounds, and its defensive tackles average 6'3, 265. With Coley and Bryant in the lineup, you're basically looking at four equally-sized men across the line.

To account for this, head coach Carl Pelini and defensive coordinator Pete Rekstis, whom Pelini plucked from Miami (Ohio) -- a merit-versus-potential move for Rekstis, if you will -- attacked from just about everywhere last year. Four linebackers logged at least three tackles for loss (impressive for what was basically a 4-2-5 defense), and seven defensive backs got at least one. The experimentation was hit-or-miss, as FAU sank from 83rd in Def. F/+ to 104th, but on a per-play basis, things could have been worse considering the size disadvantages.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Adarius Glanton	LB	6'1, 215	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	57.0	8.9%	5.5	1	2	1	0	0
David Hinds	LB				12	49.5	7.7%	6.5	1	0	1	2	2
Andrae Kirk	LB	6'2, 225	Jr.	** (5.2)	12	47.0	7.3%	4	0	0	3	1	1
Randell Johnson	LB	6'4, 230	Sr.	** (5.2)	10	14.0	2.2%	3	2	0	0	0	0
Freedom Whitfield	LB	6'2, 200	So.	** (5.4)	12	10.0	1.6%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Paul Cecere	LB	6'1, 210	RSFr.	NR	3	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Ballesteros	LB	6'2, 210	So.	** (5.3)
Robert Relf	LB	6'3, 220	Fr.	*** (5.5)

7. An interesting set of linebackers

FAU's spring two-deep lists three linebackers, which suggests that FAU might be moving more toward a standard 4-3 and utilizing a third linebacker more than a fifth defensive back. In the Sun Belt, you could pretty much stay in the nickel at all times. In Conference USA, you have to be semi-competent against a ton of different attacks. While there might be some depth issues with such a move, the level of potential is strong, especially in returning senior Adarius Glanton.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brent Harstad	SS				12	82.0	12.8%	3	1	0	0	2	0
Jeremy McKnight	FS	5'10, 180	Sr.	** (5.4)	9	38.0	5.9%	2	0	1	2	0	1
Keith Reaser	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	** (5.1)	12	37.5	5.8%	1.5	0	2	3	0	1
Cre'von LeBlanc	NB	5'11, 175	So.	** (5.4)	9	36.0	5.6%	1	0	0	4	0	0
Winfred Strickland	SS	6'0, 185	Sr.	** (5.3)	10	23.5	3.7%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Christian Milstead	NB	5'10, 170	Sr.	NR	12	21.5	3.3%	1	0	0	4	0	0
D'Joun Smith	CB	5'11, 175	Jr.	NR	11	20.5	3.2%	0	0	1	8	0	0
Damian Parms	SS	6'2, 195	Jr.	** (5.4)	10	16.5	2.6%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Sharrod Neasman	CB	6'0, 190	So.	NR	10	10.0	1.6%	0	0	0	0	1	0
David Lozandler	S	6'0, 210	Jr.	** (5.2)	6	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Demetrius Williamson	CB				10	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. Burton	DB	5'10, 175	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Jay Warren	DB	6'0, 210	Fr.	** (5.4)
Lester Thomas	DB	5'10, 165	Fr.	** (5.4)
Tyler Henderson	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	** (5.4)
Robert Miller	DB	6'2, 180	Fr.	** (5.4)

8. An even more interesting set of defensive backs

Look at three stats above: FAU ranked an awful 114th in Adj. Sack Rate but still ranked just 81st in Passing S&P+ and 52nd in Passing Success Rate+. That suggests that FAU's secondary was both aggressive and rather effective in 2012. The DBs played close to the line of scrimmage a lot and got their hands on a lot of passes -- not only did seven players manage at least one tackle for loss, but five defensed at least three passes (and a sixth defensed two). With nine of last year's top 10 returning and a load of interesting freshmen, FAU should manage to have one of the better secondaries in Conference USA from Day 1. It will only mean so much if the front four doesn't improve, but it's something.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Sean Kelly	5'10, 186	So.	68	39.9	5	6	16	32.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Mitch Anderson	5'11, 186	Sr.	44	62.1	12	27.3%
Sean Kelly	5'10, 186	So.	6	62	2	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Mitch Anderson	5'11, 186	Sr.	23-24	4-7	57.1%	3-7	42.9%
Vinny Zaccario			5-6	1-1	100.0%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Travis Jones	KR	5'11, 190	Sr.	11	20.1	0
D'Joun Smith	KR	5'11, 175	Jr.	10	21.4	0
Martese Jackson	KR	5'6, 165	Sr.	7	19.3	0
Travis Jones	PR	5'11, 190	Sr.	19	7.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	69
Net Punting	109
Net Kickoffs	79
Touchback Pct	87
Field Goal Pct	122
Kick Returns Avg	105
Punt Returns Avg	88

9. Wanted: place-kicker

The return game was decent, and the kick coverage could have been worse, but FAU needed every point it could get in 2012, and Mitch Anderson's field goal kicking was pretty atrocious. He missed three of five field goals in a three-point loss to South Alabama and went 0-for-2 against UL-Lafayette in the season finale

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Miami	28
7-Sep	at East Carolina	81
14-Sep	at South Florida	63
21-Sep	Middle Tennessee	98
28-Sep	at Rice	92
5-Oct	at UAB	105
12-Oct	Marshall	79
26-Oct	at Auburn	59
2-Nov	Tulane	111
16-Nov	at Southern Miss	87
23-Nov	New Mexico State	123
30-Nov	Florida International	99

Five-Year F/+ Rk	109
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	78
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / +4.5
TO Luck/Game	-2.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (5, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+3.8

10. Welcome to Double-A

It's not like Conference USA is that much tougher than the Sun Belt by any means, but it does bear mentioning that, even if you see FAU improving again this fall (and I do), improvement into the No. 100 range could still result in the Owls playing only 3-4 games against teams inferior to them. They play six teams projected 87th or better and only three projected 105th or worse. But the home-road splits are pretty friendly; Middle Tennessee and FIU both come to Boca Raton in swing games that could make the difference between 3-4 wins an 5-6.

Chances are, FAU is looking at another 3-9 or 4-8 season -- there just aren't enough offensive weapons -- but Pelini made serious inroads over the latter half of 2012. And if there is a second-year surge into the Top 80-90 range, then a bowl bid could be in the cards. It isn't bloody likely, but it is something to shoot for in FAU's first season post-promotion.