2013 FIU football's 10 things to know: Facts and wildcards

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. True:

Here is a list of things that are either true or mostly true.

• Mario Cristobal was, in all, a rousing success at FIU, the best coach this young program has ever had. He took on a program that had gone 8-25 in three years at the FBS level and was coming off of an 0-12 campaign known mostly for a brawl. After a 1-11 season in his first year, he won eight games in Years 2 to 3 and 15 games in Years 4-5. He was a damn strong recruiter who took full advantage of FIU's South Florida location, and he built a base of athleticism at FIU that should fit in immediately in Conference USA.
• Cristobal was fired after one bad season. In January 2012, Cristobal, one of the hottest young coaching prospects in the country, turned down the Rutgers job. A 3-9 year would have been considered a marginal success in the time before Cristobal arrived, but after a single poor season, one that featured quite a bit of bad turnovers luck among other things, Cristobal was let go. FIU athletic director Pete Garcia called the 2012 season a "total collapse," and while it was in a way ... it also wasn't. Expectations are important, yes?
• Pete Garcia also once thought hiring Isiah Thomas as its head basketball coach was a good idea. You know, the same Isiah Thomas who, since his playing days ended, has left a path of destruction -- Toronto Raptors, Bob Costas, the CBA, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, FIU, and maybe the Knicks again one day -- that makes him the sports version of a third-world dictator.
• It seems FIU thought it could land Butch Davis, the architect of the early-2000s Miami powerhouses.
• FIU didn't land Butch Davis.
• Ron Turner went 4-19 in his final two seasons at Illinois. When FIU couldn't land Davis, it eventually zeroed in on Turner, a former college assistant at Pacific, Arizona, Northwestern, Pitt, Texas A&M, and Stanford who has spent most of the last two decades in the NFL, aside from an eight-year stint at Illinois that included just two winning seasons, an 0-11 campaign, and a 1-11 campaign. He was also fired as the Chicago Bears' offensive coordinator not too long ago.
• FIU has been tied to a whipping post for most of the last four months for this series of moves.
• "Whipping Post" is the best Southern rock song ever.

2. Also True:

• You'd get tired of having to fight to keep your coach every year, too. Cristobal was linked to seemingly every open job over a two-year span, and while it was incredibly admirable that he stayed, he almost certainly wasn't going to stay too much longer. That he took an assistant coaching job with his alma mater Miami in January, then left it for a similar job at Alabama six weeks later, suggests he doesn't have a problem jumping when the right opportunity presents itself. And it would have eventually.
• This might actually be a good time for some new blood. Yes, Cristobal's 2012 team was pretty unlucky, in ways we'll discuss below. But it was still a disappointment overall, with a loaded, experienced defense struggling to find fourth or fifth gear until later in the year, and with an offense loaded with star recruits (stars at a Sun Belt level, anyway) unable to overcome a couple of injuries (and with a ridiculously experienced offensive line playing ridiculously bad football). And while we're at it, the 2011 team was disappointing as well, going 7-6 after looking like a 10-win team, both on paper and in September. Cristobal loaded the cupboard but hadn't done a lot with it. That doesn't mean he should have been fired -- FIU deserves most of the flogging it received -- but it could mean that things work out pretty well for FIU if Turner can press the right buttons.
• Turner won a conference title at Illinois, one of only three Illini titles in 50 years. No, he could not maintain success in Champaign. But who does? That Turner was able to craft even two good teams at Illinois suggests it is within the realm of possibility that he can do it again.
• Pete Garcia also hired Richard Pitino. And Mario Cristobal. He has earned most of his bad reputation so far, but it does bear mentioning that he has made a couple of good hires, too. Pitino cleaned up quite a bit of Thomas' mess in a single season (before leaving to take the Minnesota job), and Cristobal turned FIU football into something after a few years of, basically, being nothing.

Turner inherits a FIU squad that a) has underachieved for two straight years, and b) has more raw athleticism and talent than much of its C-USA competition. Anything from 3-9 to 9-3 in 2013 won't surprise me.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 89
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Duke	26-46	L	24.5 - 36.9	L
8-Sep	Akron	41-38	W	24.2 - 22.1	W
15-Sep	Central Florida	20-33	L	24.7 - 26.2	L
22-Sep	Louisville	21-28	L	33.3 - 23.3	W
29-Sep	UL-Lafayette	20-48	L	18.6 - 31.5	L
4-Oct	Arkansas State	20-34	L	21.6 - 30.4	L
13-Oct	Middle Tennessee	30-34	L	29.5 - 31.2	L
20-Oct	Troy	37-38	L	30.8 - 22.1	W
27-Oct	Western Kentucky	6-14	L	24.2 - 19.7	W
3-Nov	South Alabama	28-20	W	25.1 - 37.6	L
16-Nov	Florida Atlantic	34-24	W	27.2 - 25.8	W
24-Nov	UL-Monroe	17-23	L	20.4 - 12.3	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	25.0	86	31.7	90
Adj. Points Per Game	25.3	90	26.6	54

3. The defense came around a little later than expected

Now, make no mistake: FIU's biggest problems were on the offensive side of the ball in 2012. Starting quarterback Jake Medlock missed three games (Adj. Points Per Game with Medlock: 27.1; without: 20.2), starting running back Kedrick Rhodes missed three games, and the Golden Panthers just couldn't ever generate any sort of offensive attack. This was to be expected to some degree, simply because of the loss of all-world receiver T.Y. Hilton following the 2011 season; but the injuries didn't help, and the complete and total collapse of the line was unexpected.

It also didn't help, though, that the defense wasn't quite as good as it could have been. A unit absolutely loaded with interesting seniors looked great late in the year (last five games: 23.5 Adj. PPG allowed) but was slightly below average at first (first seven games: 28.8 Adj. PPG allowed). And by the time it rallied, the damage to the 2012 campaign had already been done. FIU began the year 1-8 with four tight losses.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	77	104	103	103
RUSHING	82	101	107	102
PASSING	57	91	88	93
Standard Downs		108	88	112
Passing Downs		89	98	80
Redzone		87	41	108

Q1 Rk	80	1st Down Rk	105
Q2 Rk	102	2nd Down Rk	76
Q3 Rk	112	3rd Down Rk	106
Q4 Rk	86

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jake Medlock	6'3, 220	Jr.	*** (5.5)	152	263	2,127	57.8%	13	2	24	8.4%	6.9
E.J. Hilliard	6'2, 185	So.	*** (5.5)	65	94	645	69.1%	4	3	13	12.1%	5.3
Loranzo Hammonds, Jr.	6'1, 200	So.	** (5.4)	1	6	20	16.7%	0	1	0	0.0%	3.3
Akil Dan-Fodio	6'3, 225	So.	*** (5.5)
Favian Upshaw	6'2, 175	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

4. Jake Medlock might be a bit too tough (or maybe his line was just terrible)

It isn't difficult to see why Jake Medlock gets hurt a lot: He doesn't exactly shy away from contact. Medlock injured his right shoulder late in 2011, fractured a foot and missed two games early in 2012, left the Western Kentucky game early with a head injury, and missed the final game because of his foot, too; while some of that might not be because of the number of hits he takes ... he does take a lot of hits. He was sacked 24 times in 287 pass attempts, and he rushed seven times per game outside of the sacks. He clearly doesn't avoid hits, even if some of them (the sacks) were not necessarily of his initiative.

When Medlock was down, Cristobal was forced to shuffle between a load of freshmen, all pretty highly-touted, none quite ready for action. E.J. Hilliard took even more sacks than Medlock (and didn't rush as well), and Loranzo Hammonds, Jr., was used mostly as a run threat (though he wasn't amazing at that). FIU's production depended on Medlock's health, and he was rarely healthy in 2012.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Kedrick Rhodes	RB	5'11, 200	Sr.	*** (5.5)	167	714	4.3	4.8	4	-19.4
Darian Mallary	RB				104	463	4.5	5.0	9	-1.9
Jake Medlock	QB	6'3, 220	Jr.	*** (5.5)	63	375	6.0	6.2	3	+4.9
Jeremiah Harden	RB				48	275	5.7	4.8	1	+4.7
E.J. Hilliard	QB	6'2, 185	So.	*** (5.5)	31	98	3.2	3.7	1	-4.0
Loranzo Hammonds, Jr.	QB	6'1, 200	So.	** (5.4)	14	56	4.0	1.7	0	-1.2
Shane Coleman	RB	5'6, 200	So.	*** (5.5)	8	34	4.3	2.7	0	0.0

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Wayne Times	WR				95	66	605	69.5%	6.4	27.1%	55.8%	6.3	72.6
Jacob Younger	WR				49	25	404	51.0%	8.2	14.0%	51.0%	8.1	48.5
Willis Wright	WR	6'1, 200	Sr.	*** (5.5)	41	25	633	61.0%	15.4	11.7%	51.2%	15.5	76.0
Kedrick Rhodes	RB	5'11, 200	Sr.	*** (5.5)	26	19	235	73.1%	9.0	7.4%	42.3%	7.9	28.2
Glenn Coleman	WR	6'2, 200	Sr.	*** (5.6)	22	13	227	59.1%	10.3	6.3%	45.5%	10.7	27.3
Jairus Williams	WR	6'5, 200	Sr.	** (5.2)	19	9	116	47.4%	6.1	5.4%	52.6%	5.7	13.9
Darian Mallary	RB				18	13	102	72.2%	5.7	5.1%	50.0%	6.3	12.2
Nick England	WR				14	8	87	57.1%	6.2	4.0%	78.6%	9.1	10.4
Ya'Keem Griner	TE	6'5, 230	So.	** (5.2)	12	9	113	75.0%	9.4	3.4%	50.0%	9.5	13.6
Akil Dan-Fodio	QB	6'3, 225	So.	*** (5.5)	12	8	88	66.7%	7.3	3.4%	41.7%	7.0	10.6
T.J. Lowder	WR	5'11, 185	So.	** (5.4)	8	5	72	62.5%	9.0	2.3%	50.0%	7.8	8.6
De'Andre Jasper	WR	5'9, 200	So.	*** (5.6)	5	4	41	80.0%	8.2	1.4%	40.0%	9.8	4.9
Zach Schaubhut	TE	6'2, 230	Sr.	NR	5	2	29	40.0%	5.8	1.4%	60.0%	5.8	3.5
Dominique Rhymes	WR	6'4, 210	So.	*** (5.5)	5	1	12	20.0%	2.4	1.4%	0.0%	1.2	1.4
Raymond Jackson	WR	6'2, 210	So.	*** (5.5)	4	1	5	25.0%	1.3	1.1%	0.0%	1.0	0.6
Johnnie Durante	WR	6'0, 170	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

5. The receiving corps is intriguing

FIU must replace 50 percent of last year's targets, which is a little scary until you realize that a lot of those targets were pretty unproductive. Wayne Times was a steady, efficient option for an offense that was mostly lacking of such a thing, but you can replace a guy who averaged 6.4 yards per target. Jacob Younger had his moments as the No. 2 receiver, but in seniors Willis Wright and Glenn Coleman, the Golden Panthers have two receivers who showed infinitely more upside, albeit in just 5.3 targets per game. The two carry a similar stature and combined for a 60 percent catch rate and a ridiculous 22.6 yards per catch. In fewer than half the targets, Wright outgained Times for the season, powered by a destructive three-game stretch: against Middle Tennessee, Troy, and Western Kentucky, Wright caught 14 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns. His quantity dropped off in November, but not his explosiveness; in three games, he caught five passes for 159 yards and three scores. He needs to become more of an every-down threat, but wow, the upside here is enormous.

If Wright can make the transition to The Man -- or, in Ron Turner parlance, if he can turn into FIU's Brandon Lloyd -- then the rest of FIU's skill position lineup takes shape nicely. Coleman should be a capable No. 2, and any number of former three-star recruits could conceivably step up and become a decent No. 3. As long as Medlock is upright and in one piece, that should lead to a solid passing game. The run game, however, is still a mystery. Kedrick Rhodes was unreliable last year, both in terms of health and production, and an all new offensive line could either be a blessing or a further curse.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	81.9	2.50	2.42	36.3%	65.2%	19.2%	53.4	6.6%	11.0%
Rank	119	115	117	89	79	69	121	96	113

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Caylin Hauptmann	LT				37 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Sun Belt
Rubert Bryan, Jr.	RT				43 career starts
Shae Smith	C				23 career starts
Giancarlo Revilla	RG				23 career starts
David Istanich	LG				16 career starts
David Delsoin	RG	6'6, 305	Jr.	*** (5.5)	4 career starts
Jordan White	LG	6'3, 310	Jr.	** (5.2)	3 career starts
Donald Senat	C	6'2, 285	Jr.	NR	1 career start
Aaron Nielsen	LT	6'4, 270	So.	** (5.2)
Delmar Taylor	OG	6'4, 290	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Edens Sineace	OT	6'5, 310	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Trenton Saunders	OG	6'3, 275	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

6. An awful line starts over

In 2011, FIU ranked 63rd in Adj. Line Yards and 33rd in Adj. Sack Rate. The Golden Panthers returned four starters from that line, line coach Alex Mirabal returned, and from what I can tell, there were no notable injuries suffered in 2012. And this line went from one of the better units at the mid-major level to being one of the worst in the country. FIU couldn't open big enough holes for its runners and couldn't protect the quarterback. I'm willing to believe that some of these line stats are on the skill position players -- Medlock probably needs to throw the ball away quicker, and Kedrick Rhodes needs to just be a better running back -- but, well, Rhodes was the running back in 2011, too, and Medlock was only sacked five percent of the time in 2011. This was one of the most disappointing units in the country, period.

In other words, it's a pretty good time to hit the reset button. FIU returns only eight career starts, and that might not even remotely be a bad thing. New line coach Steve Shankweiler is ridiculously experienced; he'll need to call on that experience quite a bit.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	67	49	29	67
RUSHING	37	56	49	64
PASSING	99	40	19	60
Standard Downs		35	23	49
Passing Downs		73	40	80
Redzone		115	107	114

Q1 Rk	16	1st Down Rk	29
Q2 Rk	71	2nd Down Rk	66
Q3 Rk	62	3rd Down Rk	41
Q4 Rk	50

7. FIU was super-aggressive in 2012

Again, the FIU defense wasn't bad last year; it's just that the expectations were quite high. For the season as a whole, FIU defended the run relatively well, but the Golden Panthers' calling card was on pass defense; they had one of the 20 most efficient pass defenses in the country, showing some cracks on passing downs but playing close to the line of scrimmage on standard downs. FIU corners logged six tackles for loss and defensed 23 passes in 2012; the aggressiveness wasn't just confined to the back line, however. Nine different linemen made at least 1.5 tackles for loss, slicing into the backfield with regularity against the run.

The D has more three-star players than a Sun Belt team is supposed to be able to recruit, and it showed. There was a potential discipline issue here, however, with the big plays allowed on passing downs, with the way the defense's performance fell off after the first quarter (and first down), and with the way it was basically a sieve in the red zone. New defensive coordinator Josh Conklin (the Citadel's defensive coordinator in 2010-11 and Tennessee's safeties coach in 2012) could have some fun here if he can cut down on the mistakes. That might be a tall order, of course, with a thinned-out depth chart.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.9	2.73	3.69	36.8%	74.3%	22.0%	118.0	5.0%	5.6%
Rank	65	34	107	42	103	30	35	49	78

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tourek Williams	DE				12	37.5	5.9%	14.5	6.5	0	2	2	0
Greg Hickman	DT	6'2, 280	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	26.0	4.1%	9	2	1	2	2	0
Isame Faciane	DT	6'5, 295	Sr.	** (5.3)	12	23.0	3.6%	5.5	1	0	0	0	0
Giovani Francois	DE	6'1, 250	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	17.5	2.7%	5.5	4.5	0	1	0	0
Andre Pound	DT				12	15.0	2.3%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Paul Crawford	DE	6'8, 275	Sr.	** (5.2)	12	12.5	2.0%	2.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Joshua Forney	DT				12	12.0	1.9%	2.5	1.5	0	2	0	1
Fadol Brown	DT	6'4, 290	So.	** (5.3)	10	6.5	1.0%	2	1.5	0	1	0	0
Lars Koht	DE	6'3, 255	So.	** (5.2)	7	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Darian Dyson	DT	6'3, 315	So.	*** (5.7)	4	2.0	0.3%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Marques Cheeks	DT	6'3, 270	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Winston Fraser	LB				12	63.5	9.9%	6.5	2	0	3	2	0
Jordan Hunt	LB				12	59.0	9.2%	1.5	1	1	8	1	0
Kenneth Dillard	LB				8	5.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Davison Colimon	LB	6'1, 200	So.	** (5.4)	6	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Jean	LB	6'3, 205	So.	*** (5.6)	5	3.0	0.5%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Wakefield	LB	6'2, 235	So.	** (5.2)	10	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Derrick Jones, Jr.	LB				8	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Leroy Owens	LB	6'4, 210	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Johnathan Cyprien	SS				12	73.5	11.5%	3.5	0	4	5	1	0
Sam Miller	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	** (5.4)	12	50.0	7.8%	4	2	1	5	1	1
Chuck Grace	FS				12	48.0	7.5%	1	0	2	3	0	0
Richard Leonard	CB	5'10, 170	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	47.0	7.3%	1	0	0	7	0	1
Jose Cheeseborough	CB				12	42.0	6.6%	0	0	1	5	0	1
Justin Halley	FS	6'1, 190	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	26.0	4.1%	1	0	0	4	0	1
Junior Mertile	CB				12	12.5	2.0%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Demarkus Perkins	SS	6'0, 205	Jr.	NR	10	10.0	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jeremiah McKinnon	CB	6'0, 175	So.	*** (5.5)	11	9.5	1.5%	0	0	0	1	1	1
Tevin Blanchard	CB				12	9.5	1.5%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Terrance Taylor	SS	6'0, 190	Sr.	** (5.2)	8	6.0	0.9%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Mitch Wozniak	SS	6'3, 205	Jr.	** (5.2)	7	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Deonte Wilson	CB	6'0, 190	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Adrian Jenkins	SS	6'2, 210	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Xavier Hines	DB	6'0, 175	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Vontarius West	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	*** (5.6)

8. Replacing Tourek and Cyprien

Both end Tourek Williams and safety Johnathan Cyprien should get selected reasonably high in this month's NFL Draft. By all accounts, Cyprien had a fantastic week at the Senior Bowl and did perfectly well at the combine. He made plays all over the field in 2012 for FIU, defensing nine passes (he had four picks and was apparently the only FIU player who could actually hold onto the ball when he got a hand on it) and logging 3.5 tackles for loss. Williams, meanwhile, was the most aggressive and effective lineman on a pretty aggressive and effective line.

Cristobal is a great recruiter, but did he recruit well enough in Miami to put FIU in position to replace two players of this magnitude?

9. Replacing everybody else

Of the 23 defensive returnees listed above, 13 are former three-star recruits according to Rivals.com. That's better than a good majority of Conference USA teams. Nine of those 13, however, are either freshmen, redshirt freshmen, or sophomores. If these players live up to their recruiting rankings, the foundation for this FIU defense is strong in the coming years. But in the short-term, inexperience could be an issue; four of the top seven defensive backs, each of the top three linebackers, and three of the top seven linemen are gone. The high-upside youth will be getting thrown into the deep end pretty early.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Josh Brisk			47	40.0	1	23	12	74.5%
Jack Griffin			18	40.0	0	4	4	44.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Jack Griffin			59	62.5	29	49.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jack Griffin			33-36	8-11	72.7%	1-5	20.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Richard Leonard	KR	5'10, 170	Jr.	26	29.2	1
De'Andre Jasper	KR	5'9, 200	So.	16	22.5	0
Sam Miller	KR	5'10, 180	Sr.	6	24.2	0
Wayne Times	PR			12	6.6	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	107
Net Punting	94
Net Kickoffs	20
Touchback Pct	18
Field Goal Pct	112
Kick Returns Avg	18
Punt Returns Avg	73

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Maryland	75
7-Sep	Central Florida	54
14-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	NR
21-Sep	at Louisville	33
5-Oct	at Southern Miss	87
12-Oct	UAB	105
26-Oct	Louisiana Tech	89
2-Nov	East Carolina	81
9-Nov	at Middle Tennessee	98
16-Nov	at UTEP	108
23-Nov	Marshall	79
30-Nov	at Florida Atlantic	116

Five-Year F/+ Rk	91
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	82
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-4 / +8.1
TO Luck/Game	-5.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	8 (5, 3)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+2.6

10. A total wildcard

Seriously, what should one make of this team? We know that Ron Turner has both some success and a lot of failure on his head coaching resume, but we also know that Turner's head coaching experience ended nearly a decade ago. We know that Jake Medlock is a pretty strong quarterback when healthy, but we also know that he's rarely healthy. We know that a terribly inexperienced offensive line is a bad thing, but we also know that you can't get much worse than last year's FIU line. We know that this defense has a lot of former star recruits on it, but we know that most of those star recruits aren't that far removed from being recruited. We know that the schedule features nine teams projected 79th or worse in the F/+ projections, but we also know both that FIU itself was only 89th last year, and that the beginning of the season features three Top 75 opponents.

This really might be a perfect year for a new coach to take over a blank canvas that has a lot of interesting features, like Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M last year. But ... is Ron Turner a Kevin Sumlin?