College Football

2013 ECU football's 10 things to know: Pirates have experience and momentum

Head coach Ruffin McNeill comes across as one of the nicest coaches in college football, but a pretty mean, experienced ECU team could be the favorite to win the C-USA East in 2013, at least if that bendy defense stiffens a bit.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Apr 16, 2013, 12:00pm EDT

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Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Regress, then progress

Quite a bit of what I wrote about Rice last week can also be applied to East Carolina. Coach looking like a dead man walking in early October? Kind of, yeah. Major rally in the second half of the season? Check. Unlikely momentum heading into 2013? Absolutely. Tons of experience filling the two-deep? Yes.

Both teams won five of six to finish the regular season and looked thoroughly decent in doing so, and while Rice returns a bit more experience overall, ECU has plenty to burn.

In a conference full of semi-interesting and flawed Conference USA programs -- I'm currently struggling to differentiate between FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennesseee, North Texas, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB, UTEP, and UTSA in any major way, really -- it appears ECU has a leg up in this year's East Division. I like Rice and Tulsa in the West, and I'm not sure what to think of Marshall yet (we'll see in tomorrow's preview), but if a new defensive coordinator can do anything with a unit that was pretty consistently below average in 2012, Ruffin McNeill's seasoned Pirates should have a major role to play in who reaches the C-USA championship game.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 \| Adj. Record: 6-7 \| Final F/+ Rk: 90
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Appalachian State	35-13	W	19.2 - 38.5	L
8-Sep	at South Carolina	10-48	L	34.6 - 34.8	L
15-Sep	at Southern Miss	24-14	W	11.4 - 23.9	L
22-Sep	at North Carolina	6-27	L	17.7 - 26.2	L
29-Sep	UTEP	28-18	W	27.6 - 19.7	W
4-Oct	at Central Florida	20-40	L	28.6 - 36.3	L
13-Oct	Memphis	41-7	W	30.9 - 20.3	W
20-Oct	at UAB	42-35	W	39.8 - 35.9	W
27-Oct	Navy	28-56	L	24.7 - 47.6	L
3-Nov	Houston	48-28	W	29.6 - 25.3	W
17-Nov	at Tulane	28-23	W	24.5 - 22.2	W
23-Nov	Marshall	65-59	W	36.8 - 35.5	W
22-Dec	vs. UL-Lafayette	34-43	L	28.2 - 35.7	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	31.5	47	31.6	89
Adj. Points Per Game	27.2	71	30.9	90

2. After a long spring and summer, you determine your starters...

...and two games into the season, you've made some pretty significant changes. Quarterback Rio Johnson and running back Michael Dobson were ECU's starters in the backfield when the season began versus Appalachian State. Johnson won a lengthy battle with Shane Carden in the offseason but threw three interceptions in 29 passes versus South Carolina and was benched, while Dobson was mostly ineffective and finished third on the team in carries. He's now a defensive back.

The change from Johnson to Carden, and from Dobson to Reggie Bullock to Vintavious Cooper eventually began to turn the tide for an ECU offense that look absolutely dreadful for most of September.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 30.9, East Carolina 20.7 (minus-10.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 9 games): Opponent 30.9, East Carolina 30.1 (minus-0.8)

The defense was pretty high-variance overall -- it looked great against UTEP, Memphis, and Tulane and was a horror show against UCF, UAB, Marshall, and especially Navy -- but its average didn't change much as the season progressed. The offense, however, improved by more than a touchdown over the season's final two months. And with Carden, Cooper, four of the top five receivers, and five linemen with starting experience returning, one would think that the Pirates' performance level from mid-October onward could be maintained into 2013.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	56	79	76	81
RUSHING	92	103	104	103
PASSING	36	70	54	77
Standard Downs		75	75	77
Passing Downs		85	78	87
Redzone		59	65	50

Q1 Rk	83	1st Down Rk	87
Q2 Rk	89	2nd Down Rk	103
Q3 Rk	69	3rd Down Rk	73
Q4 Rk	107

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Shane Carden

6'2, 218

Jr.

** (5.2)

273

413

3,116

66.1%

6.6%

6.6

Rio Johnson

435

63.9%

0.0%

6.0

Cody Keith

6'3, 190

So.

*** (5.7)

Kurt Benkert

6'3, 204

Fr.

*** (5.5)

3. Carden came on strong

Shane Carden was the No. 1 quarterback for most of the year, but while the offense did improve under his watch, it took a little while.

Carden through 5 games: 70-for-115 (61%), 693 yards, 3 TD, 4 INT
Carden's last 8 games: 203-for-298 (68%), 2,423 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT

He completed 48 of 68 passes for 694 yards and seven touchdowns versus Memphis and UAB, 31 of 43 for 305 yards, four touchdowns and a pick against Houston, and, in a defining performance, 38 of 47 passes for 439 yards, three scores and no picks in a 65-59 win over Marshall. Johnson, seeing the writing on the wall, left the team, which means that it's Carden's show. Former star recruit Cody Keith waits in the wings, but one assumes Carden would have to something pretty drastically bad (or get hurt) to lose his job this time around.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Vintavious Cooper	RB	5'9, 200	Sr.	** (5.2)	200	1,049	5.2	4.4	7	+2.7
Reggie Bullock	RB				80	387	4.8	3.1	6	-1.4
Michael Dobson	RB				62	190	3.1	2.5	1	-12.4
Shane Carden	QB	6'2, 218	Jr.	** (5.2)	56	288	5.1	2.5	8	+0.4
Hunter Furr	RB				12	43	3.6	1.6	0	-1.3
Chris Hairston	RB	6'0, 192	So.	** (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Justin Hardy

WR-Y

6'0, 186

Jr.

123

1104

71.5%

9.0

26.6%

70.7%

8.9

123.5

Andrew Bodenheimer

WR-Z

371

70.6%

7.3

11.0%

64.7%

7.5

41.5

Danny Webster

WR-H

5'10, 180

Jr.

** (5.4)

332

69.4%

6.8

10.6%

53.1%

6.8

37.1

Reese Wiggins

WR-X

5'11, 193

Sr.

*** (5.6)

208

59.5%

5.0

9.1%

54.8%

4.8

23.3

Justin Jones

WR-Y

6'8, 277

Sr.

*** (5.6)

346

61.0%

8.4

8.9%

46.3%

8.3

38.7

Derrick Harris

WR-H

217

66.7%

6.6

7.1%

60.6%

6.6

24.3

Jabril Solomon

WR-X

6'2, 189

So.

*** (5.7)

410

53.1%

12.8

6.9%

65.6%

12.8

45.9

Vintavious Cooper

5'9, 200

Sr.

** (5.2)

230

83.9%

7.4

6.7%

48.4%

7.5

25.7

Michael Dobson

194

85.2%

7.2

5.8%

44.4%

7.0

21.7

Reggie Bullock

81.3%

3.3

3.5%

62.5%

3.2

5.9

Lance Ray

WR-Z

6'2, 208

Sr.

*** (5.5)

44.4%

1.8

1.9%

77.8%

1.9

1.8

Zico Pasut

RB/TE

6'3, 250

Sr.

*** (5.5)

100.0%

9.0

0.6%

33.3%

10.2

3.0

Antonio Cannon

WR-Z

6'2, 180

So.

*** (5.6)

33.3%

2.3

0.6%

100.0%

1.4

0.8

Quataye Smyre

WR-H

5'10, 170

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

DaQuan Barnes

WR-Z

6'1, 188

RSFr.

Darren Dowdell

6'4, 225

Fr.

*** (5.5)

4. Hello, playmakers

For the season as a whole, ECU's explosiveness rankings (PPP+) were pretty terrible. On the ground, ECU was neither efficient nor explosive, but a high-percentage passing attack was often done in by the simple lack of big plays. That did shift as the season progressed, however. Vintavious Cooper had a pretty tremendous eight-game stretch (from UNC to Tulane, Cooper rushed for 893 yards, 5.8 per carry) before fading late, but most of the play-making seemed to come from a big-time No. 1 receiver and a reserve.

Then-sophomore inside receiver Justin Hardy combined the lovely catch rate one expects from an inside receiver in an Air Raid-tinged offense (72 percent) with solid big-play ability; he caught 17 passes for 388 yards in a three-week span in October, then caught 16 passes for 171 yards against Marshall. Meanwhile, then-freshman Jabril Solomon made the most of his limited opportunities. He caught five passes for 170 yards in four games in October and caught seven for 171 in the final three games. He is listed as the first-string X receiver this season, and his presence should complement Hardy's nicely. If ECU can get anything from any number of other former three-star recruits -- Lincoln Riley's spread has certainly attracted interest from receiver recruits in the area, though it does bear mentioning that ECU ran more in 2012 than it had been in previous years -- this should be the best passing game ECU has had in three years.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.8	3.16	3.17	40.1%	74.4%	16.5%	109.0	3.5%	6.6%
Rank	91	27	65	52	29	24	54	41	66

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Will Simmons	RG	6'5, 342	Sr.	*** (5.6)	25 career starts; 2012 2nd All-CUSA
Jordan Davis	LG	6'3, 297	Sr.	** (4.9)	24 career starts
Adhem Elsawi	RT	6'5, 308	Sr.	NR	20 career starts
Grant Harner	RT				20 career starts
Robert Jones	RT				13 career starts
Josh Clark	C				12 career starts
Taylor Hudson	C	6'5, 300	Jr.	** (5.4)	7 career starts
Drew Gentry	LG	6'6, 317	Jr.	** (5.4)	1 career start
Keifer Neal	LG	6'5, 327	Jr.	** (5.4)
Chaz Lowery	RT	6'5, 297	So.	** (5.4)
Isaac Harris	LT	6'7, 304	So.	** (5.2)
C.J. Struyk	C	6'2, 280	So.	NR
Tre Robertson	RG	6'5, 325	So.	** (5.3)
Ryan Revia	LT	6'6, 313	RSFr.	** (5.3)
J.T. Boyd	C	6'4, 280	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Marquis Wallace	OL	6'5, 305	Jr.	*** (5.5)

5. An untested, effective line

ECUs' raw line rankings -- 27th in Standard Downs line yards per carry, 29th in Power Success Rate (short yardage success), 24th in Stuff Rate (avoidance of tackles for loss in the run game) -- suggest a pretty high-quality performance from the Pirates' line. The opponent-adjusted line stats (91st in Adj. Line Yards), however, tells you that ECU didn't exactly face much competition from stout defensive lines, at least not after the South Carolina game.

Still if success breeds future success, then signs point to a decent line in 2013; three two-year (or nearly two-year) starters return, including all-conference guard Will Simmons. And while there are three ACC teams on the 2013 schedule, it's not like Conference USA is loaded with many fearsome defensive fronts.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	89	82	91	77
RUSHING	54	72	83	66
PASSING	110	78	98	71
Standard Downs		82	93	81
Passing Downs		80	82	75
Redzone		87	91	83

Q1 Rk	96	1st Down Rk	95
Q2 Rk	108	2nd Down Rk	112
Q3 Rk	58	3rd Down Rk	66
Q4 Rk	107

6. Hello, Rick Smith

In the three years before Ruffin McNeill was hired as ECU's head coach and brought Brian Mitchell in as his defensive coordinator, East Carolina's average Def. F/+ ranking was 40th, with a peak of 22nd in 2008. In the last three years, the Pirates' average ranking has been 90th; after a rebound to 71st in 2011, ECU fell back to 91st in 2012, and Mitchell was let go. McNeill called on an old face to restore success: Rick Smith, Skip Holtz's defensive backs coach at ECU from 2005-09, now takes the reins of the defense. It appears he will maintain Mitchell's 3-4 alignment, but he is tasked with stiffening up what was a far-too-flexible defense in 2012. The Pirates prevented big plays reasonably well but bent far too much for a bend-don't-break approach to work, especially in the secondary.

7. Opponents passed a lot

Overall, ECU's Rushing S&P+ and Passing S&P+ rankings were about the same -- 72nd and 78th, respectively -- but opponents had no problem with the idea of picking on the pass defense. They threw three percent more than expected on standard downs and seven percent more on passing downs, meaning they had no fear for either the ECU pass rush (which wasn't awful) or a bendable set of cornerbacks. The safeties were, in theory, pretty decent at big-play prevention, but ECU just couldn't get off the field and faded dramatically as each half progressed.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.5	3.05	3.11	39.5%	63.6%	17.4%	96.9	4.3%	6.6%
Rank	73	86	48	65	38	90	64	71	58

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Terry Williams	NT	6'1, 322	Jr.	** (5.4)	11	32.5	4.5%	5.5	1	0	3	1	0
Lee Pegues	DE	6'2, 294	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	26.5	3.7%	4.5	0	0	0	0	1
Michael Brooks	DE				11	23.0	3.2%	3.5	2	1	0	0	0
Terrell Stanley	DE	6'2, 266	So.	** (5.4)	13	20.5	2.8%	4	2.5	0	6	0	1
Chrishon Rose	NT	6'4, 299	Jr.	** (5.1)	13	13.5	1.9%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Matt Milner	DE	6'4, 256	Sr.	** (5.1)	12	6.5	0.9%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
John Lattimore	DE				7	5.5	0.8%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Johnathon White	DE	6'4, 283	So.	** (5.2)	6	4.5	0.6%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Dixon	DE	6'1, 275	Sr.	**** (5.9)	2	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jeton Beavers	DE	6'5, 266	So.	** (5.3)
Demetri McGill	NT	6'1, 300	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jeremy Grove	ILB	6'1, 240	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	63.0	8.7%	4.5	0	0	0	2	0
Derrell Johnson	OLB	6'2, 264	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	44.5	6.1%	11	7	0	0	0	2
Kyle Tudor	ILB	6'3, 242	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	41.5	5.7%	2	1	0	2	1	0
Gabriel Woullard	OLB	6'3, 227	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	34.5	4.8%	5	3.5	1	0	0	0
Daniel Drake	ILB				11	29.5	4.1%	4	2	0	0	0	1
Montese Overton	OLB	6'3, 220	So.	** (5.4)	8	21.5	3.0%	3.5	1	0	1	0	1
Ty Holmes	ILB	6'1, 235	Sr.	** (4.9)	13	19.0	2.6%	1	0	1	2	1	0
Maurice Falls	OLB	6'2, 274	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	15.0	2.1%	2.5	2.5	0	1	3	1
Zeek Bigger	ILB	6'2, 228	So.	*** (5.5)	13	13.5	1.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Baker	OLB				6	5.5	0.8%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jake Geary	OLB	6'3, 243	Jr.	*** (5.5)	9	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Williams	ILB	6'1, 240	Jr.	NR	10	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tristan Mumford	LB	6'1, 225	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Devaris Brunson	LB	6'0, 206	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Damon Magazu	FS	5'11, 204	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	62.0	8.6%	0	0	1	6	0	0
Chip Thompson	SS	6'0, 216	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	43.0	5.9%	1	0	3	1	0	1
Leonard Paulk	CB				12	37.5	5.2%	2	1	0	6	0	0
Adonis Armstrong	CB	5'10, 182	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	37.0	5.1%	0.5	0	1	14	0	1
Jacobi Jenkins	CB				9	36.0	5.0%	1	0	0	11	2	0
Lamar Ivey	SS	6'1, 196	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	19.0	2.6%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Justin Venable	FS				11	13.5	1.9%	0	0	0	1	1	1
Josh Hawkins	CB	5'10, 183	So.	NR	12	9.5	1.3%	1	0	1	3	0	0
Rocco Scarfone	CB	5'11, 182	So.	** (5.4)	12	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Desi Brown	FS	6'2, 215	Jr.	*** (5.5)	10	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kris Sykes	CB				9	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Cody Lyon	S				9	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Dobson	DB	6'0, 191	Sr.	*** (5.6)
DaShaun Amos	CB	6'1, 172	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Detric Allen	CB	6'0, 190	Jr.	*** (5.5)

8. Cleaning up messes

Again, ECU's PPP+ rankings suggest that big plays weren't as much of a problem for the ECU pass defense as allowing 12-yard pass after 12-yard pass. Safeties Damon Magazu and Chip Thompson seemed to play their "last line of defense" role reasonably well, but Smith, who also takes over as defensive backs coach, must figure out how to coax more consistency out of a unit that seemed to possess decent play-making ability at times. Corner Adonis Armstrong defensed 15 passes in 2012, while Magazu and Thompson chipped in another 11. Dobson moves from running back to defensive back to plump up the depth a bit, and junior college transfer Detric Allen could certainly work into the rotation pretty quickly.

The front seven possesses a wealth of both size experience, not to mention some attacking capability in players like end-turned-OLB Derrell Johnson and tackle Terry Williams. But opponents will continue to pick on the secondary until ECU proves it has improved in that regard.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Trent Tignor	6'5, 212	Sr.	65	42.8	9	16	14	46.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Warren Harvey	5'11, 225	Jr.	75	62.8	26	34.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Warren Harvey	5'11, 225	Jr.	50-50	12-13	92.3%	3-7	42.9%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Derrick Harris	KR			22	20.6	0
Lance Ray	KR	6'2, 208	Sr.	13	22.3	1
Hunter Furr	KR			10	18.9	0
Justin Hardy	PR	6'0, 186	Jr.	20	8.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	63
Net Punting	56
Net Kickoffs	63
Touchback Pct	69
Field Goal Pct	45
Kick Returns Avg	91
Punt Returns Avg	66

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Old Dominion	NR
7-Sep	Florida Atlantic	116
14-Sep	Virginia Tech	23
28-Sep	at North Carolina	32
5-Oct	at Middle Tennessee	98
12-Oct	at Tulane	111
19-Oct	Southern Miss	87
2-Nov	at Florida International	99
9-Nov	Tulsa	56
16-Nov	UAB	105
23-Nov	at N.C. State	61
30-Nov	at Marshall	79

Five-Year F/+ Rk	64
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	88
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	0 / +6.9
TO Luck/Game	-2.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (8, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-0.6

9. Rooting for Ruffin

Here's what I wrote in last December's New Orleans Bowl recap:

100. Percentage of East Carolina head coach Ruffin McNeill's camera time in which he was encouraging somebody. McNeill might be the easiest coach in the country to like. He spent most of his game patting players on the helmet, making eye contact and pumping his fist to somebody, or speaking with clear admiration to an assistant. Play for him, and you play for one of the best father figures in the country.

I root for nice guys to succeed in the often cutthroat industry of college football, and McNeill appears as nice as they come. But with an upgrade in competition forthcoming (ECU moves to the American Athletic Conference soon), McNeill would be well-served to capitalize on his late-2012 momentum and win quite a few games in a watered-down C-USA. The good news is, the odds of that are pretty good.

10. If the defensive mess gets cleaned up just a little bit...

The overall slate is not very forgiving, both with three ACC contests (Virginia Tech, at North Carolina, at N.C. State) and a trip to Marshall, the Pirates' primary East division competition; but there are wins to be found in 2013 if ECU can stiffen up just a little bit defensively and fully utilize the experience and newfound play-making ability it unearthed near the end of last season. This team has more potential than most C-USA teams in 2013. Time to take advantage of that.