2013 Tulsa football's 10 things to know: Still the one? Still having fun?

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Still the one?

There have been two sure things among Conference USA's current lineup of late, and one of them just went 0-12. But while Southern Miss' 18-year streak of winning seasons came to an unceremonious end last fall, the train known as the Tulsa Golden Hurricane just kept chugging right along. Tulsa has been to eight bowls in 10 years despite turnover -- Steve Kragthorpe left for Louisville in 2007, and Todd Graham actually stayed for four years before leaving in 2011 -- and despite changing identities along the way.

In 2012, Tulsa was fast-paced but quite conservative on offense, content with taking what it was given offensively and riding big defensive plays to eventual wins. The Golden Hurricane beat UCF for the conference title, and one would assume they would be among the favorites in this year's watered down C-USA as well…

…but man oh man, do they have to replace a lot of pieces. The top four defensive linemen (who combined for 41.5 tackles for loss and 26 sacks) are gone, as are linebacker DeAundre Brown (17 tackles for loss, nine sacks, and nine passes defensed), three of the top four in the secondary, and three all-conference offensive linemen.

Head coach Bill Blankenship has recruited well entering his third year in charge at his alma mater, and Tulsa appears to be quite well-established in anticipation of its move to the American Athletic Conference in 2014. But will Blankenship's squad take at least a temporary step backwards in its final C-USA campaign? Is Tulsa deep enough to counter what was a hefty amount of attrition following last year's 11-win campaign?

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-3 | Adj. Record: 10-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 42
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	at Iowa State	23-38	L	20.2 - 32.5	L
8-Sep	Tulane	45-10	W	35.4 - 11.2	W
15-Sep	Nicholls State	66-16	W	28.1 - 46.6	L
22-Sep	Fresno State	27-26	W	21.2 - 16.3	W
29-Sep	at UAB	49-42	W	29.1 - 29.0	W
6-Oct	at Marshall	45-38	W	23.9 - 26.2	L
11-Oct	UTEP	33-11	W	30.6 - 30.1	W
20-Oct	Rice	28-24	W	24.9 - 19.7	W
3-Nov	at Arkansas	15-19	L	23.8 - 29.1	L
10-Nov	at Houston	41-7	W	28.0 - 11.4	W
17-Nov	Central Florida	23-21	W	27.3 - 11.6	W
24-Nov	at SMU	27-35	L	32.1 - 23.3	W
1-Dec	Central Florida	33-27	W	26.6 - 19.0	W
31-Dec	vs. Iowa State	31-17	W	22.8 - 20.9	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	34.7	30	23.6	35
Adj. Points Per Game	26.7	78	23.3	23

2. Good, then better

Pace is sexy and distracting. Because of pace, Tulsa's offense seemed explosive and deadly in 2012. It was not. Tulsa was pretty efficient on the ground, sure, but with a poor passing attack and a poor level of competition, the Golden Hurricane really didn't grade out very well on that side of the ball. But while Tulsa's offense was exceedingly average-at-best, the defense went from average to great over the second half of the season.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Opponent 27.4, Tulsa 26.9 (minus-0.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 7 games): Tulsa 26.5, Opponent 19.3 (plus-7.2)

Adj. Scoring is calibrated so that an average performance results in what is an average number of points in college football. The national average in points per game last year was around 28, so Tulsa's defense, when adjusted for opponent, was about nine points better than the typical unit over the last half of the season. We can talk about the offense's general conservatism, but the bottom line is that the offense simply did what it needed to do to get out of the defense's way. And it worked. Tulsa won 11 games for just the second time in school history.

With a defense decapitated by graduation, it will be interesting to see if the offense comes to the table with a bit more of an aggressive approach in 2013. It probably has the tools to do so.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	28	69	71	69
RUSHING	9	58	50	58
PASSING	84	84	106	76
Standard Downs		74	69	78
Passing Downs		69	86	55
Redzone		104	86	110

Q1 Rk	52	1st Down Rk	97
Q2 Rk	67	2nd Down Rk	55
Q3 Rk	97	3rd Down Rk	100
Q4 Rk	106

3. The purpose of pace

Pace has long been seen as a quality underdog tactic because, as long you're getting first downs and keeping the defense on the field, it can wear an opposing defense out, even if the opponent has superior athleticism.

Tulsa's offense, with a solid short-yardage back (Alex Singleton) and Top 50 rushing efficiency, certainly could have been worse in this regard. But the pace didn't really seem to have much of an effect on defenses -- Tulsa's best offensive quarter was the first (52nd in Q1 S&P+); it got progressively worse from there (67th, then 97th, then 106th).

Again, Tulsa's offense didn't have to do much because of its dominant defense. These things sometimes work hand-in-hand. But if forced to be more effective and explosive in 2013, can this run-first offense do its job, especially considering Singleton is no longer around to move the chains?

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Cody Green	6'4, 247	Sr.	**** (5.8)	228	419	2,592	54.4%	17	11	8	1.9%	5.9
Kalen Henderson	6'0, 210	Jr.	** (5.4)	16	46	294	34.8%	1	2	0	0.0%	6.4
Joseph Calcagni	6'1, 202	So.	** (5.4)	3	4	48	75.0%	0	0	0	0.0%	12.0
Dane Evans	6'2, 200	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Alex Singleton	RB				202	800	4.0	3.8	24	-18.0
Trey Watts	RB	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	186	1,108	6.0	5.5	3	+16.5
Ja'Terian Douglas	RB	5'11, 189	Sr.	*** (5.7)	137	936	6.8	10.3	7	+24.2
Cody Green	QB	6'4, 247	Sr.	**** (5.8)	70	336	4.8	6.7	4	+1.4
Zack Langer	RB	5'11, 204	So.	** (5.4)	35	181	5.2	3.3	2	-0.8
Kalen Henderson	QB	6'0, 210	Jr.	** (5.4)	15	90	6.0	4.9	1	+0.5
Willie Carter	HB				14	37	2.6	1.4	0	-3.5
Michael Sorrells	HB	6'2, 193	So.	** (5.4)
James Flanders	RB	5'11, 186	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Chris Hall	RB	6'0, 235	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Keyarris Garrett	WR	6'4, 207	Jr.	*** (5.6)	121	67	845	55.4%	7.0	27.5%	44.6%	7.3	70.2
Willie Carter	HB				102	49	382	48.0%	3.7	23.2%	60.8%	3.7	31.7
Jordan James	FL	6'2, 203	Sr.	** (5.4)	69	41	568	59.4%	8.2	15.7%	58.0%	8.2	47.2
Thomas Roberson	SE	6'3, 195	Jr.	*** (5.5)	52	29	489	55.8%	9.4	11.8%	65.4%	9.2	40.6
Trey Watts	RB	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	47	34	343	72.3%	7.3	10.7%	40.4%	6.7	28.5
Bryan Burnham	WR?	6'2, 197	Sr.	** (5.3)	13	9	90	69.2%	6.9	3.0%	69.2%	6.5	7.5
Khiry Cooper	WR				8	3	30	37.5%	3.8	1.8%	62.5%	3.8	2.5
Joshua Atkinson	WR	6'2, 185	RSFr.	*** (5.5)	6	4	33	66.7%	5.5	1.4%	50.0%	6.2	2.7
Derek Patterson	FL	6'0, 184	So.	** (5.3)	6	3	29	50.0%	4.8	1.4%	33.3%	4.1	2.4
Ja'Terian Douglas	RB	5'11, 189	Sr.	*** (5.7)	5	1	7	20.0%	1.4	1.1%	0.0%	0.7	0.6
Conner Floyd	SE	6'1, 197	So.	** (5.4)	4	2	41	50.0%	10.3	0.9%	0.0%	5.4	3.4
Zack Langer	RB	5'11, 204	So.	** (5.4)	3	2	68	66.7%	22.7	0.7%	0.0%	9.0	5.6
Alex Singleton	RB				3	3	10	100.0%	3.3	0.7%	66.7%	3.3	0.8
Zach Epps	WR	6'5, 200	So.	*** (5.5)	1	1	25	100.0%	25.0	0.2%	100.0%	N/A	N/A
Tyler Wilson	TE	6'7, 260	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Keevan Lucas	WR	5'10, 195	Fr.	** (5.4)

4. Giving the ball to the wrong guys

It is foolish, sometimes, to draw stark conclusions based on per-play, per-carry, or per-target averages. Sometimes that backup running back with a great per-carry average, had that average because he was a backup and was in no way the focal point of the defensive gameplan. The guys who touch the ball the most, probably do so for a reason.

That said, it is difficult to completely justify the number of touches Alex Singleton, Keyarris Garrett, and Willie Carter got in comparison to their infinitely more explosive backups. Singleton was, again, solid in short-yardage, and he had the 24 rushing touchdowns to prove it. He was the thunder to the lightning combination of Trey Watts and Ja'Terian Douglas. But did he really need 14.4 carries per game? Watts and Douglas were wonderfully explosive (quarterback Cody Green wasn't so bad himself); Douglas' 10.3 Highlight Yards per Carry (the number of yards you get when the offensive line does its job and gets you to the second level) was second in the country, behind only Kent State's Dri Archer, among players with at least 130 carries. He and Watts did still see 23 carries and 3-4 pass targets per game; they got their touches. But Singleton also got a few more than he perhaps needed. It will be interesting to see how Singleton's carries are divvied out among Watts, Douglas, sophomore Zack Langer, and intriguing redshirt freshman James Flanders.

Still, the running game was fine. It was the passing game where things were truly out of whack. In Jordan James and Thomas Roberson, Green had a pair of semi-efficient, explosive targets, a pair that combined for a 58 percent catch rate and 15.1 yards per catch. They were targeted about 8.6 times per game. If you have a couple of possession receivers to pair up with guys like this, your passing game can hum. In theory, Keyarris Garrett and Willie Carter fit that mold (10.6 yards per catch, 8.3 catches per game), but their catch rates were abominable (combined: 52 percent). Carter in particular had a dreadful combination of a 48 percent catch rate and 7.8 yards per catch; Tulsa's leading receiver (66 percent catch rate, 14.2 yards per catch) in 2011, Carter just never got it together last year, and possession receivers are only useful if they are catching the ball. Carter is gone now, and it might not hurt Tulsa to distribute his 7.3 targets per game to others.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.6	2.96	2.93	36.2%	75.9%	18.9%	300.2	1.5%	1.9%
Rank	94	64	86	93	20	61	7	8	6

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Brian DeShane	RT				25 career starts; 2012 1st All-CUSA
Jared Grigg	LT				15 career starts; 2012 1st All-CUSA
Trent Dupy	C				50 career starts; 2012 2nd All-CUSA
Stetson Burnett	RG	6'4, 303	Sr.	*** (5.5)	32 career starts
Jake Alexander	LG	6'2, 294	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13 career starts
Gabe Moyer	LG	6'2, 291	Sr.	** (5.3)	4 career starts
Garrett Stafford	RT	6'5, 301	So.	*** (5.5)	1 career start
Garrett Gladd	LT	6'4, 302	So.	*** (5.6)
Billy Lafortune	C	6'0, 251	So.	NR
Blake Belcher	OT	6'5, 285	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Dylan Foxworth	C	6'2, 265	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Rob Boyd	OL	6'4, 285	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Dalton Rodriguez	OL	6'6, 258	Fr.	*** (5.6)

5. What to make of the line?

In 2012, Tulsa had a seasoned, experienced line that protected the passer as well as anybody but wasn't very steady in run blocking … for an offense that was very much a run-first attack. Losing three all-conference linemen who combined for 90 career starts can't be considered a good thing, but is it that bad? If the replacements sacrifice a little pass-protection proficiency for run blocking, Tulsa might be able to transition to some new starters with little issue, especially considering Blankenship has recruited quite well up front.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	26	30	30	33
RUSHING	16	47	41	47
PASSING	55	28	23	39
Standard Downs		31	28	38
Passing Downs		28	27	31
Redzone		46	64	36

Q1 Rk	60	1st Down Rk	67
Q2 Rk	44	2nd Down Rk	9
Q3 Rk	16	3rd Down Rk	47
Q4 Rk	33

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.6	2.60	3.20	35.1%	62.2%	22.2%	163.6	7.9%	8.9%
Rank	37	18	58	20	28	27	3	6	25

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jared St. John	DE				14	40.0	5.2%	14	11.5	0	0	3	1
Cory Dorris	DE				14	37.0	4.8%	10	6	1	3	0	1
Daeshon Bufford	DT				14	35.0	4.5%	9.5	5.5	0	3	1	1
Derrick Jackson	DT				14	32.0	4.1%	8	3	0	1	0	0
Brentom Todd	DE	6'3, 239	Jr.	*** (5.5)	14	16.0	2.1%	8	1	0	2	0	2
Derrick Alexander	DE	6'2, 270	So.	** (5.3)	14	14.5	1.9%	5.5	3	0	1	0	0
Derrick Luetjen	DT	6'3, 279	So.	** (5.3)	13	11.5	1.5%	4	2	0	0	0	0
Chris Hummingbird	DE	6'2, 258	Jr.	NR	13	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jack Jewell	DT	6'5, 287	Sr.	** (5.3)	4	1.0	0.1%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Damian Gibson	DE	6'4, 235	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Cory Rahmings	DE	6'3, 255	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Frankie Davis	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	*** (5.5)

6. A lot of production gone

Tulsa's defensive line ran the show in 2012. Tulsa's top six linemen recorded 55 tackles for loss, more than 21 entire FBS defenses did. This was a fierce, deep unit, capable of generating a hell of a pass rush without blitzing (and nearly unstoppable when middle linebacker DeAundre Brown was also coming after the quarterback) and standing up against run blocking as well as almost any mid-major line.

Let's just say that depth will be tested in 2013 with the departure of Brown and all four starting linemen. Again, Blankenship has recruited well, and there are candidates for breakouts throughout the front seven. But wow, is this a lot of production for one team to lose.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
DeAundre Brown	MIKE				14	103.0	13.3%	17	9	1	8	0	0
Shawn Jackson	WILL	6'0, 251	Sr.	*** (5.5)	11	71.5	9.2%	10.5	5	0	5	3	1
Mitchell Osborne	CANE	6'2, 210	Jr.	*** (5.5)	14	31.5	4.1%	3	2	0	2	2	2
Trent Martin	MIKE	6'2, 242	So.	*** (5.5)	9	31.0	4.0%	2	1	0	1	0	0
DeWitt Jennings	LB	5'10, 211	Sr.	*** (5.5)	14	24.5	3.2%	3.5	2	0	2	0	0
Jake Sizelove	WILL	6'0, 211	Jr.	NR	14	16.0	2.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Donnell Hawkins	LB	6'1, 221	Sr.	*** (5.5)	3	5.5	0.7%	1.5	1	0	0	0	0
Conner Sherwood	LB	6'2, 218	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Rob Riederer	LB	6'0, 220	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Craig Suits	LB	6'0, 220	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
C.J. Gooden	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	*** (5.5)

7. A lot of potential returning

It bears mentioning that Jared St. John, the biggest star on a line full of stars, had just 2.0 tackles for loss and 10.0 tackles in 2011. It appeared that Tulsa might struggle to replace 2011 star Tyrunn Walker (13.5 tackles for loss, eight sacks), and St. John not only replaced him, but surpassed him.

It also bears mentioning that 13.5 of the 30.5 tackles ends Brentom Todd and Derrick Alexander made in 2012 were behind the line of scrimmage. Their big-play rate was quite high, and while they will have to prove they can make the run-of-the-mill plays, too, one cannot say there is not potential here.

It also bears mentioning that Blankenship did a lovely job of stockpiling and redshirting talent last year. Two three-star redshirt freshmen enter the fray at defensive end in 2013, while three three-star redshirt freshmen do the same at linebacker.

Honestly, the biggest question mark could come at defensive tackle. Daeshon Bufford and Derrick Jackson were both best-of-both-world tackles last year, making a large number of plays and standing up well to short-yardage run blocking. Returning tackles made just 12.5 tackles last year (though, again, four of Derrick Luetjen's 11.5 tackles were TFLs), and there are no former star recruits waiting for their turn. Depth there could be an issue.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dexter McCoil	BAN				14	75.0	9.7%	1.5	0	5	9	1	2
Marco Nelson	S	6'0, 192	Sr.	*** (5.5)	14	66.0	8.5%	4	0	2	3	1	1
Lowell Rose	CB				14	50.5	6.5%	0	0	2	10	2	1
John Flanders	CB				13	26.0	3.4%	2	0	0	3	0	0
Dwight Dobbins	CB	5'9, 173	Jr.	** (5.4)	14	22.5	2.9%	1	0	1	2	0	1
Michael Mudoh	FS	5'10, 198	So.	*** (5.5)	14	20.0	2.6%	0	0	0	2	1	1
Luke Snider	BAN	5'10, 178	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	5.0	0.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
J.D. Ratliff	CB				14	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Pate	DB	5'11, 176	Sr.	NR	14	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Austin McDaniel	DB	6'0, 188	Jr.	NR	13	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darrell Williams	DB	5'10, 184	So.	*** (5.5)	14	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bradley White	DB	6'0, 173	So.	NR	12	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Darnell Walker, Jr.	CB	5'11, 165	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Johnell Celistan	CB	6'2, 179	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Micheal Thomas	DB	6'0, 200	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Will Barrow	DB	5'10, 170	Fr.	*** (5.6)

8. Attacking from everywhere

Defensive coordinator Brent Guy has attacked from every conceivable angle over the last couple of years. Tulsa has made 170 tackles for loss over the last two seasons, and while the line accounted for a lot of that in 2012, safety Marco Nelson chipped in four of his own. Combine that with some on-the-ball aggressiveness (Nelson and since-graduated safety Dexter McCoil combined for 19 passes defensed), and you get the impression that this unit had plenty of aggression and athleticism of its own.

That said, the secondary's margin for error vanishes in 2013. Not only must Guy find replacements for McCoil and both starting cornerbacks, but the unit must also account for the fact that the pass rush might suffer a bit as well. Guys will have to cover better, and for longer. As with everywhere else on the defense, there is an interesting load of redshirt freshmen ready to pitch in, but the odds are good that the pass defense will regress a decent amount this fall.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Cole Way	6'8, 205	Jr.	77	39.1	1	22	24	59.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Cole Way	6'8, 205	Jr.	89	61.9	39	43.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Daniel Schwarz	6'3, 189	So.	52-59	9-14	64.3%	3-4	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Trey Watts	KR	5'11, 190	Sr.	21	27.9	1
Ja'Terian Douglas	KR	5'11, 189	Sr.	6	20.8	0
Marco Nelson	KR	6'0, 192	Sr.	5	35.0	0
Trey Watts	PR	5'11, 190	Sr.	22	7.0	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	75
Net Punting	105
Net Kickoffs	23
Touchback Pct	35
Field Goal Pct	75
Kick Returns Avg	3
Punt Returns Avg	69

9. A terrifying return game

We don't know how much the defense will regress, and we don't know how the offense might respond to having to carry more of the load, but we do know that the special teams unit still has one of the scariest return games in the country. And we know that Tulsa will need whatever field position advantage the return game can derive.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Bowling Green	67
7-Sep	Colorado State	117
14-Sep	at Oklahoma	7
21-Sep	Iowa State	76
5-Oct	Rice	92
12-Oct	at UTEP	108
26-Oct	at Tulane	111
2-Nov	UTSA	114
9-Nov	at East Carolina	81
16-Nov	Marshall	79
23-Nov	at Louisiana Tech	89
30-Nov	North Texas	112

Five-Year F/+ Rk	44
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	74
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin	+3 / +4.5
TO Luck/Game	-0.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	10 (7, 3)
Yds/Pt Margin	-1.5

10. C-USA's balance of power

I rarely bet against a proven program. Teams that are the best, for the longest time, tend to be more capable of handling year-to-year turnover. But it does take a leap of faith to assume that Tulsa will be able to defend its Conference USA title despite what it loses, both in the trenches and throughout the defense.

Tulsa had one of the most underrated defenses in the country last year; if it regresses only a little bit, and if the offense can pick up the slack (for what it's worth, I'm more confident in the latter than the former), then Tulsa could still be considered the class of Conference USA. But with Rice, Marshall, and East Carolina all looking experienced and interesting, and with teams like Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, and Middle Tennessee looking like serious wildcards, the road to one final C-USA title could be pretty bumpy.

Here's how I see the C-USA balance of power now that we are through with all 14 team profiles. Four stand out, followed by a load of teams that could threaten for bowl eligibility with a few breaks.

Tier 1
1. Tulsa
2. East Carolina
3. Rice
4. Marshall

Tier 2
5. Middle Tennessee
6. Southern Miss
7. UTEP
8. Louisiana Tech
9. UAB
10. Tulane
11. FIU
12. UTSA
13. North Texas

Tier 3
14. FAU