2013 UTSA Football's 10 things to know: Taking the fast track

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Kids aren't dummies

Two years ago, UTSA had yet to play a football game. The Roadrunners had a coach, a stadium, and some pretty impressive ambition, but everything was on paper. Now, after 22 games -- 12 wins, 10 losses -- here they are in what I called Double-A ball on Monday.

I spoke with UTSA head coach Larry Coker last month, and I asked him just how in the heck you go about building a program with no track record. "The big thing about it is trying to set the culture," he said. "You don't have the older players to lead. Our coaches have to set that culture -- what we expect and how we expect it. Not every player buys in, and you have a lot of turnover for a while."

Coker said he spoke with former South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt, who underwent the same building-from-scratch-and-moving-up-quickly process a decade and a half ago, and he said the same thing.

"Kids aren't dummies," Coker says. "If they see things that work, it makes them more receptive."

That makes it difficult when your program quite literally hasn't won before. That said, things could be going a lot worse for UTSA. Again, in their first 20 games in existence, the Roadrunners have won 12 times. They played eight FBS teams last year and beat four of them. Yes, they were holding their own in the weakest overall FBS conference, the WAC, and yes, their wins came against New Mexico State (123rd out of 124 in the 2012 F/+ rankings), Idaho (120th), South Alabama (118th), and Texas State (99th). Yes, they were 0-4 versus bowl teams (average score: Opponent 46.2, UTSA 20.5). Yes, there was some luck involved (UTSA was 4-0 in one-possession games). And yes, they finished 116th in the F/+ rankings. But they immediately found themselves ahead of the game against teams that, well, had been around for more than two years. Coker has made up some serious ground on the rest of the football-playing world, and at this stage, he doesn't need to worry about that "no older players to lead" thing. A vast majority of last year's squad returns in 2013

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-4 | Adj. Record: 2-8* | Final F/+ Rk: 116
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	at South Alabama	33-31	W	28.9 - 36.2	L
8-Sep	Texas A&M-Commerce	27-16	W	N/A	N/A
15-Sep	at Georgia State	38-14	W	23.4 - 46.4	L
22-Sep	NW Oklahoma State	56-3	W	N/A	N/A
29-Sep	at New Mexico State	35-14	W	26.4 - 27.3	L
13-Oct	at Rice	14-34	L	18.2 - 35.0	L
20-Oct	San Jose State	24-52	L	35.0 - 29.2	W
27-Oct	Utah State	17-48	L	29.3 - 32.0	L
3-Nov	at Louisiana Tech	27-51	L	24.9 - 30.3	L
10-Nov	McNeese State	31-24	W	17.6 - 54.9	L
17-Nov	at Idaho	34-27	W	24.6 - 49.0	L
24-Nov	Texas State	38-31	W	34.0 - 26.8	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	29.1	62	32.6	96
Adj. Points Per Game	26.2	82	36.7	120

* The two games versus Division II teams were not counted as part of the Adj. W-L record, nor were they counted in the rankings or the rushing and receiving stats you find below. They were, for all statistical intents and purposes, exhibitions.

2. Lots of good, lots of bad

Again, we probably shouldn't think too hard about this. In its provisional FBS season, UTSA ripped off a five-game winning streak to start the season (yes, only two were against FBS teams) and finished with a three-game winning streak. That's impressive. And by all accounts, the offense was perfectly decent. The Roadrunners were held under 24 points twice all season, and Utah State's defense was so good that scoring 17 points against the Aggies was impressive in its own right. Eric Soza is a legitimately solid quarterback, and he had a pretty good junior season.

On the other hand, there was the defense. Against FBS offenses, UTSA allowed a seemingly solid 32.3 points per game; against good FBS offenses, however (Utah State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State), UTSA allowed 50.3. The Roadrunners desperately needed an athletic advantage for their 4-2-5 defense to take hold, and when they didn't have it, they didn't have a prayer.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	70	109	95	112
RUSHING	73	110	96	111
PASSING	54	88	89	90
Standard Downs		118	100	121
Passing Downs		73	69	75
Redzone		102	115	84

Q1 Rk	96	1st Down Rk	113
Q2 Rk	109	2nd Down Rk	95
Q3 Rk	96	3rd Down Rk	55
Q4 Rk	90

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Eric Soza	6'0, 205	Sr.	NR	166	282	2,085	58.9%	20	3	12	1.1%	7.3
Ryan Polite				46	75	604	61.3%	3	3	9	5.1%	7.4
Tucker Carter	6'3, 225	Jr.	** (5.2)

3. Eric Soza is unique

He is an impressive (and selective) runner, and he is infinitely more prone to throw the ball away instead of throwing picks. Plus, he appeared to raise his game on passing downs. He has started almost every UTSA game -- he missed the SJSU and Utah State games last season -- and his high points in 2012 were ultra high. He was 17-for-24 for 206 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 51 yards against Georgia State, he was 23-for-41 for 314 yards and four touchdowns against Louisiana Tech, and against Idaho, he was 23-for-36 for 232 yards and rushed for 89 yards and three scores.

Oh yeah, and he doesn't take sacks. Like, almost none. His 1.1 percent sack rate was infinitesimal; the stereotypical dual-threat quarterback is more likely to scramble and throw the ball away instead of stepping into the pocket and forcing a throw, and while incompletions are not good, they're better than turnovers and sacks. Soza was one of the FBS' best quarterbacks when it comes to avoiding catastrophic mistakes, and with an experienced supporting cast, there's no reason to expect something different in 2013, though he will be facing a few more decent defenses.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
David Glasco II	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	NR	94	410	4.4	5.1	5	-16.6
Evans Okotcha	RB	5'9, 215	Sr.	NR	88	359	4.1	3.5	8	-15.8
Eric Soza	QB	6'0, 205	Sr.	NR	55	339	6.2	6.5	6	+5.0
Brandon Armstrong	RB	5'6, 160	Jr.	** (5.0)	25	85	3.4	2.2	0	-6.0
Kam Jones	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	24	136	5.7	6.6	0	+0.7
Ryan Polite	QB				21	91	4.3	4.8	1	-0.3
CheRod Simpson	RB	5'10, 200	Sr.	NR	10	35	3.5	1.7	0	-3.0
Brian Vaughn	RB	5'6, 185	So.	** (5.2)	8	72	9.0	7.8	0	+2.0

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Kam Jones	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	35	19	260	54.3%	7.4	11.1%	57.1%	7.4	33.6
Earon Holmes	WR	6'4, 190	Jr.	NR	34	18	226	52.9%	6.6	10.8%	67.6%	7.4	29.2
Evans Okotcha	RB	5'9, 215	Sr.	NR	31	23	333	74.2%	10.7	9.8%	51.6%	10.9	43.1
Cole Hicks	WR	6'1, 190	Sr.	NR	24	12	144	50.0%	6.0	7.6%	58.3%	6.0	18.6
Aaron Grubb	SLOT	5'8, 170	So.	NR	23	10	134	43.5%	5.8	7.3%	56.5%	5.9	17.3
Kenny Bias	WR	6'1, 175	So.	** (5.3)	22	11	210	50.0%	9.5	7.0%	63.6%	9.4	27.2
Marcellus Mack	WR	6'0, 200	Jr.	NR	22	17	155	77.3%	7.0	7.0%	63.6%	7.0	20.0
Kenny Harrison	WR	5'9, 165	Jr.	NR	20	17	116	85.0%	5.8	6.3%	45.0%	5.8	15.0
Cole Hubble	TE	6'2, 245	Jr.	** (5.1)	19	13	246	68.4%	12.9	6.0%	63.2%	12.7	31.8
Brandon Armstrong	RB	5'6, 160	Jr.	** (5.0)	18	12	83	66.7%	4.6	5.7%	66.7%	5.1	10.7
Jeremiah Moeller	TE	6'2, 240	Sr.	NR	15	10	145	66.7%	9.7	4.8%	60.0%	9.7	18.7
Brandon Freeman	WR	5'10, 170	Jr.	NR	14	6	121	42.9%	8.6	4.4%	42.9%	7.8	15.6
David Glasco II	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	NR	14	10	71	71.4%	5.1	4.4%	35.7%	6.9	9.2
Josiah Monroe	SLOT	5'6, 170	Jr.	** (5.4)	11	6	52	54.5%	4.7	3.5%	63.6%	4.6	6.7
Nate Shaw	HB	5'11, 250	Jr.	NR	5	5	28	100.0%	5.6	1.6%	80.0%	6.7	3.6
Aron Taylor	WR	6'2, 195	Fr.	** (5.4)

4. Evans Okotcha: also unique

Soza was also more than willing to dump to his running back to keep the ball moving forward. And when Evans Okotcha was in the backfield, that was a particularly useful option. Okotcha split carries with David Glasco II in 2012 -- they combined for about 15 carries per game -- and saw about three targets (and two catches) per game as well. And in his 119 intended touches (carries and targets), he averaged a lovely 5.8 yards. Okotcha and the other backs and tight ends gave Soza some efficiency options (combined catch rate: 78 percent), which made up for a rather inefficient set of receivers. Players like Kam Jones and Kenny Bias were able to get downfield at times, but the catch rate for the receivers will need to improve. Faster defenses will track down Okotcha and the backfield options better, and at some point, UTSA will need to actually strike downfield.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	81.1	2.76	2.48	38.4%	63.3%	24.7%	361.0	1.4%	0.8%
Rank	120	91	113	71	89	116	3	5	2

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Scott Inskeep	LG	6'4, 300	Jr.	NR	21 career starts; 2012 2nd All-WAC
Nate Leonard	C	6'0, 290	Jr.	NR	22 career starts
Cody Harris	RG	6'5, 300	Jr.	NR	20 career starts
Patrick Hoog	LT				14 career starts
Josh Walker	LT	6'3, 290	Jr.	NR	12 career starts
Payton Rion	RG	6'3, 280	Jr.	NR	7 career starts
Zach Hester	RT	6'4, 315	So.	** (5.2)	1 career start
Michael Roberson	LT	6'3, 300	So.	NR
William Cavanaugh	C	6'1, 295	So.	** (5.2)
Jordan Gray	RT	6'2, 260	So.	** (5.2)
Cody Cole	LG	6'5, 295	RSFr.	** (5.2)

5. Stockpiling the experience

Soza's own ability to avoid sacks certainly played a large role in UTSA ranking third in the country in Adj. Sack Rate. There is no doubting that. And UTSA's line certainly proved lacking when it comes to opening holes for its backs. Defenders were pretty consistently able to slice through the line and stop backs for losses. Still, you have to like where this line is headed.

Growing pains were expected -- as you see above, the six returning players with starting experience were all sophomores or younger last year -- but the experience is piling up. UTSA enters 2013 with three two-year starters, and barring attrition or injury, it could enter 2014 with three three-year starters. The line is headed in the right direction, and it will get further help from Soza this fall.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	79	122	124	117
RUSHING	20	100	118	71
PASSING	120	123	123	123
Standard Downs		104	112	96
Passing Downs		124	124	123
Redzone		53	75	42

Q1 Rk	123	1st Down Rk	118
Q2 Rk	86	2nd Down Rk	92
Q3 Rk	119	3rd Down Rk	124
Q4 Rk	110

6. The Roadrunners needed an athletic edge ... badly

Coker brought on small school veteran Neal Nethery to install his intended 4-2-5 defense two years ago; the move made sense considering the defense's emphasis on speed (and the emphasis on passing among so many Sun Belt and Conference USA teams). But we'll just politely say the installation is still in process. UTSA had the worst passing downs defense in the country, generating a mediocre pass rush and offering no resistance whatsoever in the secondary. UTSA was able to swarm to ball-carriers and limit big plays on the ground for the most part, but the Roadrunners were simply unable to get off the field when they created opportunities to do so.

They were also unable to do any damage whatsoever if they didn't have a speed advantage. Their defensive Covariance -- a measure intended to figure out who played their best games against good competition and who played their best against their worst opponents -- was on the far "Best Against Worst" end. They allowed just 167 yards to NW Oklahoma State, 209 to Texas A&M-Commerce, 307 to Georgia State, 308 to South Alabama, and 350 to New Mexico State. Not bad. They picked off nine passes in those games and allowed an average of 61.2 rushing yards per game against those teams. But then the real games started. UTSA allowed 483 yards to Rice, 522 to Utah State and 537 to Louisiana Tech, picking off just four passes the rest of the way. Facing real opponents didn't treat the Roadrunners very well.

In theory, experience could help with that. Becoming more aware and adept in your roles with this unique defense could help, especially in the passing game. But one has to question the overall talent level of the defense; lord knows Coker and his staff did: They brought in 10 defensive backs in their 2013 recruiting class.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.6	2.64	3.95	37.6%	73.2%	16.1%	66.9	3.4%	5.0%
Rank	87	22	120	48	94	101	110	100	90

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cody Rogers	DE	6'0, 245	Jr.	NR	10	24.5	3.9%	4.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Franky Anaya	DT				12	24.0	3.8%	6	2.5	1	0	0	1
Richard Burge	DT	6'3, 280	Jr.	NR	12	20.0	3.2%	5	1	0	0	0	0
Will Ritter	DE	6'1, 235	Sr.	NR	11	18.0	2.8%	4	3.5	0	1	1	1
Jarron Harris	DE	6'3, 245	Sr.	NR	12	16.5	2.6%	3.5	3	0	1	1	0
Ashaad Mabry	DT	6'3, 315	Jr.	NR	12	14.0	2.2%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Ferrington Macon	DT	5'11, 295	Jr.	** (5.2)	12	12.5	2.0%	1	0	0	0	0	1
Dan Winter	DE				12	10.5	1.7%	2	0	0	0	0	1
Jason Neill	DE	6'2, 270	Jr.	NR	10	9.5	1.5%	2	1	0	2	0	0
Lekenwic Haynes	DE				11	2.0	0.3%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
John Roper	DE	5'9, 195	Jr.	NR	2	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Robert Singletary	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	** (5.4)
Brendon Brinkmann	DE	6'7, 255	RSFr.	** (5.2)
Codie Brooks	DE	6'1, 260	RSFr.	NR
Justyn Eddins	DE	6'4, 240	Jr.	** (5.4)
Brian Price	DT	6'4, 315	So.	** (5.2)

7. Falling victim to the counterpunch

You'll rarely see a team so good agains the run on standard downs (22nd in Standard Downs line yards per carry) and so awful on passing downs (120th). Knowing what we know about the pass defense, that tells me UTSA felt the need to over-pursue on passing downs, desperately trying to get to the quarterback before he could pick them apart. That leaves you vulnerable to both draw plays and quarterback scrambles, and the numbers suggest that this decimated the Roadrunners. They couldn't even get away with a bend-don't-break approach to pass defense, and aggression hurt them just as much. With the top three ends returning, along with three of the top four tackles, the experience level should help, as should the addition of two junior college transfers, including enormous tackle Brian Price. I don't know how good this line will be, but it should at least improve slightly from last year, and a little help from an improved secondary couldn't hurt.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brandon Reeves	MIKE				12	64.0	10.1%	3	1.5	0	2	1	2
Steven Kurfehs	HAWK	6'2, 230	Sr.	NR	12	56.0	8.8%	5.5	4.5	0	1	0	1
Blake Terry	MIKE	5'11, 230	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	49.0	7.7%	3	1	0	0	1	0
Drew Douglas	MIKE	6'1, 230	So.	NR	6	12.0	1.9%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Dalton Miller	LB	5'11, 220	So.	NR	9	3.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jens Jeters	HAWK	6'1, 245	So.	** (5.2)
Brandon Guerrero	MIKE	6'1, 235	Sr.	** (5.4)
Kenneth O'Neal	LB	6'1, 212	Fr.	** (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Triston Wade	FS	5'11, 165	Jr.	NR	12	59.5	9.4%	1	0	4	7	4	2
Nic Johnston	SS	6'2, 200	Jr.	NR	11	59.0	9.3%	5	1	1	4	4	0
Darrien Starling	CB	5'9, 195	Jr.	NR	11	30.0	4.7%	0	0	0	2	0	1
Erik Brown	CB				11	30.0	4.7%	1	0	4	12	1	0
Brian King	ROV	6'1, 190	Jr.	** (5.2)	12	26.5	4.2%	0	0	1	1	0	1
Mauricio Sanchez	ROV	6'0, 195	Jr.	NR	9	24.0	3.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cody Berry	ROV	5'11, 205	Sr.	** (5.4)	7	19.5	3.1%	1	0	0	1	2	1
Crosby Adams	CB	5'9, 180	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	13.0	2.1%	0	0	2	1	0	0
Charles Wort	SS	6'1, 205	So.	*** (5.5)	12	5.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bennett Okotcha	CB	6'0, 195	So.	*** (5.6)
Tevin Broussard	FS	6'0, 190	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Andre Brown	CB	5'11, 175	Jr.	** (5.3)
Trevor Baker	DB	6'3, 185	Jr.	** (5.2)
Kevin Adams	DB	6'1, 185	Jr.	** (5.2)
Aneas Hendricks	DB	6'0, 168	Fr.	** (5.4)
Jarveon Williams	DB	5'10, 185	Fr.	** (5.4)

8. A blood transfusion in the secondary

A full 40 percent of Coker's 2013 recruiting class will the defensive backfield this fall. Coker signed four junior college transfers, including three-star safety Tevin Broussard. Oklahoma transfer Bennett Okotcha also enters the mix. UTSA's roster now features five former three-star recruits, and four live in the secondary.

None of this guarantees improvement, mind you. But it does point to the simple fact that UTSA knew what its biggest weakness was last year and took drastic steps to improve it. If players like Broussard and Okotcha can make an immediate impact alongside players like safeties Triston Wade and Nic Johnston, and if the remaining recruits can offer some level of depth at cornerback -- UTSA just had none whatsoever last year -- then improvement should follow. And if that leads to less desperation up front, then the overall defense could improve by quite a few spots in the rankings. It can't really go any lower.

9. Triston Wade is a keeper

Despite the secondary's general incompetence, Wade still earned second-team all-WAC honors in 2012, and not only because he logged a lot of tackles. Tackle totals can fool you sometimes -- you cannot immediately tell whether those tackles were of the play-making variety or of the "my defense sucks, and somebody has to bring the guy down" variety -- but Wade showed solid play-making ability, defensing 11 passes (four picks, seven passes broken up) and forcing four fumbles. Nic Johnston wasn't so bad himself. Again, the biggest issue was at cornerback, where Okotcha could help immensely if he is ready to roll.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Josh Ward	5'10, 220	Jr.	28	33.7	1	6	5	39.3%
Kristian Stern	5'11, 185	Jr.	23	39.7	2	6	4	43.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Josh Ward	5'10, 220	Jr.	29	58.0	8	27.6%
Sean Ianno	6'3, 205	Jr.	22	61.3	7	31.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Sean Ianno	6'3, 205	Jr.	21-21	7-8	87.5%	3-5	60.0%
Kristian Stern	5'11, 185	Jr.	24-24	4-5	80.0%	1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Kenny Harrison	KR	5'9, 165	Jr.	14	23.3	0
Brandon Armstrong	KR	5'6, 160	Jr.	10	16.4	0
Charles Wort	KR	6'1, 205	So.	5	18.0	0
Kenny Harrison	PR	5'9, 165	Jr.	12	17.3	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	57
Net Punting	122
Net Kickoffs	93
Touchback Pct	84
Field Goal Pct	42
Kick Returns Avg	111
Punt Returns Avg	29

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at New Mexico	122
7-Sep	Oklahoma State	6
14-Sep	at Arizona	30
21-Sep	at UTEP	108
28-Sep	Houston	57
5-Oct	at Marshall	79
12-Oct	Rice	92
26-Oct	UAB	105
2-Nov	at Tulsa	56
9-Nov	Tulane	111
23-Nov	at North Texas	112
30-Nov	Louisiana Tech	89

Five-Year F/+ Rk	116
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	120
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+12 / +9.7
TO Luck/Game	+1.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	19 (10, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+0.6

10. This is quite a jump

UTSA has played eight FBS opponents in its history. In 2013, the Roadrunners will play 12, including seven projected in the Top 92 of the preseason F/+ rankings and four in the Top 60. Coker's team is almost guaranteed to improve -- teams that return 19 starters almost have no choice, especially considering what returns from the two-deep -- and with home games versus Rice, UAB and Tulane and winnable trips to New Mexico, UTEP, and North Texas, the win total could remain reasonably nice. But the defense probably hasn't sealed all of its cracks, and the receiving corps probably still won't be able to help out Eric Soza as much as he needs it to. UTSA is a work in progress, but of course it is. The Roadrunners are going to struggle in 2013, but they are ahead of schedule, and they should be able to hold their own for at least a good portion of the season.