College Football

2013 Army football's 10 things to know: Searching desperately for a defense

Two years ago, it looked like Army had turned a corner in its long battle to catch back up with Navy and simply provide sustained competence on the football field. Now, not so much.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC May 13, 2013, 10:00am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. If it isn't one thing, it's another

Rich Ellerson has been in charge at Army for four years. He inherited a program that hadn't seen a winning season or a bowl since 1996. Its rival, Navy, had far surpassed it in recent seasons. The Black Knights had put a decent defense on the field in two years (and six wins) under Stan Brock, but its offense was atrocious. He installed an option attack with a freshman quarterback, Trent Steelman, and with each passing year, Army's offense got better. It surged from 116th in Off. F/+ to 74th in 2010, stagnated a bit in 2011, then surged again to 60th in 2012. By the time Steelman finished his eligibility last year, Army was in possession of a decent offense with a truly strong running game.

But after winning seven games in 2010, Army won just five in 2011-12 combined. Why? Because the defense fell off a cliff. The unit ranked 54th in Def. F/+ in 2009, fell to 88th in 2010, and plummeted to 124th, dead last, in 2012. And despite an improved offense, Army fell from 76th in overall F/+ in 2010 to 106th last fall. Its 2-10 record was its worst since the Conference USA days of 2004.

So where does Army go now? Ellerson was able to see his offensive vision come to life with Steelman behind center, but now Steelman's gone, and the defense is undersized and completely ineffective. And if the D manages to improve in 2013, can the offense avoid offsetting it with regression of its own?

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 \| Adj. Record: 2-10 \| Final F/+ Rk: 106
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
8-Sep	at San Diego State	7-42	L	22.1 - 37.8	L
15-Sep	Northern Illinois	40-41	L	38.9 - 44.3	L
22-Sep	at Wake Forest	37-49	L	33.0 - 64.9	L
29-Sep	Stony Brook	3-23	L	26.5 - 39.2	L
6-Oct	Boston College	34-31	W	38.5 - 42.7	L
13-Oct	Kent State	17-31	L	24.3 - 36.7	L
20-Oct	at Eastern Michigan	38-48	L	31.0 - 43.3	L
27-Oct	Ball State	22-30	L	23.4 - 29.2	L
3-Nov	Air Force	41-21	W	27.8 - 24.1	W
10-Nov	at Rutgers	7-28	L	30.0 - 29.8	W
17-Nov	Temple	32-63	L	34.4 - 62.6	L
8-Dec	vs. Navy	13-17	L	22.3 - 26.6	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	25.3	84	37.0	112
Adj. Points Per Game	30.0	53	41.3	124

2. It got better (sort of)

As we'll see below, the defense was an outright horror show in 2012. But it does have one thing going for it: It was quite a bit better for most of the last five games. One data point (the Temple game) skews that, but if you remove that game for a moment, you get this:

Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Opponent 44.1, Army 30.6 (minus-13.5)
Ad. Points Per Game (last 4 games, sans Temple): Opponent 27.4, Army 25.9 (minus-1.5)

The Eastern Michigan game seemed to be a catalyst of sorts. Army allowed an unforgivable 577 yards and 48 points to what was, according to Off. F/+, the No. 105 offense in the country, but it rebounded from that point forward, allowing 413 yards (5.2 per play) to Ball State (49th in Off. F/+), 338 (4.7 per play) to Air Force (82nd), 252 (4.8) to Rutgers (84th), and 297 (4.6) to Navy (87th). Yes, Temple (565 yards, 9.3 per play) destroyed some of that progress, but the trend was a happy one. So that's something.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	39	56	42	66
RUSHING	1	15	22	15
PASSING	124	116	120	111
Standard Downs		34	16	42
Passing Downs		111	115	107
Redzone		35	36	39

Q1 Rk	34	1st Down Rk	32
Q2 Rk	77	2nd Down Rk	64
Q3 Rk	26	3rd Down Rk	83
Q4 Rk	102

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Trent Steelman

667

47.8%

8.2%

6.3

A.J. Schurr

6'0, 185

So.

** (5.3)

130

44.4%

5.3%

6.8

Angel Santiago

5'11, 188

Jr.

** (5.4)

Kado Brown

6'0, 180

Fr.

** (5.3)

3. Rooting for Trent Steelman

Not that this has anything to do with the 2013 team, but let's just say that it's really easy to root for Trent Steelman. He wasn't much of a passer, but the guy could run the option as well as anybody in the country, featured a fantastic first-step burst, and rushed for more than 3,000 yards and 45 touchdowns in his career. For most of his career, he did things like this. But in his final game, he did this. It was gut-wrenching to watch.

Steelman has now graduated, but before he fulfills the rest of his Army commitments, he gets a chance as a slot receiver with the Baltimore Ravens. It's probably fair to say that the vast majority of college football fans will be rooting for him.

4. Moving on

For the first time since 2009, Army will be looking for a new starting quarterback. Both sophomore A.J. Schurr and junior Angel Santiago seemed to pass muster in spring practice. Schurr was the top backup in 2012, while Santiago got decent playing time in 2011, and in limited action, the two have produced stat lines that left something to be desired:

Schurr in 2012: 8-for-18 passing for 130 yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 4.4 yards per carry
Santiago in 2011: 7-for-21 passing for 84 yards, 3.2 yards per pass attempt, 4.0 yards per carry

Schurr was more effective in his opportunities and started with the first-string offense in the 2013 spring game, so he is the odds-on favorite. But whoever wins the job will be following in the footsteps of one of Army's best quarterbacks in recent decades.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Trent Steelman	QB				223	1,295	5.6	6.9	17	+14.7
Raymond Maples	RB	6'1, 218	Sr.	** (5.1)	223	1,215	5.4	3.5	2	+7.9
Larry Dixon	FB	6'0, 238	Jr.	*** (5.5)	140	839	6.0	6.3	6	+18.3
Malcolm Brown	RB				61	441	7.2	4.8	4	+9.2
Hayden Tippett	FB	5'11, 225	Sr.	** (5.0)	46	234	5.1	3.5	1	-1.0
Trenton Turrentine	RB	5'9, 206	Jr.	** (5.4)	29	177	6.1	3.7	1	+2.3
Terry Baggett	RB	6'1, 200	Jr.	** (5.2)	16	138	8.6	5.6	1	+4.7
A.J. Schurr	QB	6'0, 185	So.	** (5.3)	11	48	4.4	3.2	0	-1.0
Stephen Fraser	RB	5'10, 187	Jr.	** (5.2)	10	40	4.0	3.0	0	+0.1
Nehemiah Brown	RB	5'9, 172	Fr.	** (5.3)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Chevaughn Lawrence

6'3, 195

Jr.

357

61.8%

10.5

31.2%

74.2%

9.6

32.0

Patrick Laird

6'3, 219

Sr.

127

34.4%

4.0

29.4%

54.8%

4.1

13.0

Raymond Maples

6'1, 218

Sr.

** (5.1)

108

42.9%

7.7

12.8%

61.5%

8.0

10.6

Malcolm Brown

37.5%

5.8

7.3%

62.5%

5.6

4.7

Anthony Stephens

6'2, 194

Sr.

33.3%

7.7

5.5%

50.0%

8.5

4.7

Scott Williams

5'8, 165

Sr.

** (5.2)

16.7%

1.3

5.5%

83.3%

1.0

0.8

Stephen Fraser

5'10, 187

Jr.

** (5.2)

100.0%

20.0

1.9%

100.0%

12.1

4.1

Larry Dixon

6'0, 238

Jr.

*** (5.5)

100.0%

10.0

1.9%

50.0%

10.0

2.0

Ejay Tucker

5'11, 204

Sr.

** (5.1)

50.0%

9.0

1.9%

100.0%

5.4

1.8

Trenton Turrentine

5'9, 206

Jr.

** (5.4)

100.0%

24.0

1.0%

100.0%

14.5

2.5

Hayden Tippett

5'11, 225

Sr.

** (5.0)

100.0%

3.0

1.0%

100.0%

1.8

0.3

Billy East

5'10, 185

Fr.

** (5.3)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	119.8	3.56	3.14	43.3%	79.7%	11.1%	67.2	5.6%	10.3%
Rank	5	3	69	21	6	1	110	77	108

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Frank Allen	LG				36 career starts
Ryan Powls	C				17 career starts
Michael Kime	RT	6'2, 243	Sr.	** (5.2)	13 career starts
Stephen Shumaker	RG	6'0, 264	Jr.	NR	12 career starts
Ben Jebb	LT				8 career starts
Will Wilson	RG				7 career starts
Derek Bisgard	LT				4 career starts
Zach Reichert	RT	6'2, 250	Sr.	NR	1 career start
John Szott	LG	6'3, 280	Sr.	NR
Dan Whitaker	RT	6'3, 242	Sr.	NR
Nick Bennett	LT	6'1, 238	Jr.	** (5.4)
Todd McDonald	C	5'11, 239	Jr.	NR
Matt Hugenberg	RG	6'3, 285	So.	** (5.2)
Justin Gilbert	RT	6'3, 265	So.	** (5.2)
Patrick Joseph	OL	6'3, 285	Fr.	** (5.4)

5. A legitimately strong run game

If you pound away with the option and run as frequently as Army does, you're going to end up with rushing yards whether or not you're particularly good at it. But it bears mentioning that Army was particularly good at it in 2012. Steelman and fullback Larry Dixon both showed strong explosiveness, while Raymond Maples and Malcolm Brown each took advantage of the opportunities they found on the outside. Plus, they ran behind a line that knew what it was doing. Army had to replace six players with starting experience and headed into 2012 with just 36 career starts up front. But after ranking fifth in Adj. Line Yards in 2011, Army ranked fifth again. Plus, the Black Knights were the best in the country at preventing negative plays on the ground. The backups and first-time starters were upperclassmen who had compiled a bit of experience here and there.

It's the same story in 2013. Of the eight players who finished 2012 with starting experience, five are gone, and Army returns just 26 career starts. But of the nine returnees listed above, four are seniors, and three are juniors. Throw in a pair of interesting sophomores (Matt Hugenberg and Justin Gilbert), both of whom have decent size and started with the first-stringers in the spring game, and you've got a unit that is a little bit less experienced than last year's line, but with a little bit more potential down the road.

(And no, we're not going to spend much time talking about the Army passing game here. It's not very good, but Army never passes. If the Black Knights fall into passing downs, the drive's probably over. But we knew that already.)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	87	124	120	124
RUSHING	121	122	117	123
PASSING	22	124	121	124
Standard Downs		122	118	123
Passing Downs		123	121	124
Redzone		105	113	90

Q1 Rk	124	1st Down Rk	121
Q2 Rk	124	2nd Down Rk	123
Q3 Rk	107	3rd Down Rk	123
Q4 Rk	124

6. What do you do?

How do you go about fixing a defense that was this bad a year ago? Where do you start? For Ellerson, he didn't do anything drastic. Army has the same co-coordinators it did last year (Payam Saadat and Chris Smeland), and it appears it will be running mostly the same scheme. Steadiness works as often as the "freak out and change everything" approach, but wow, would it be tempting to change everything.

Despite what the stats above suggest, Army was actually pretty good at slicing into the opposing backfield. The Black Knights ranked 42nd in Stuff Rate (negative plays on the ground) and 39th in Adj. Sack Rate. Aggression did good things for them at times. But they pretty much had to be aggressive because if they weren't making a play, they were getting pushed around and dominated. There was, again, improvement at the end of the year, but for the season as a whole, the numbers were atrocious: 124th in Passing S&P+, 123rd in Passing Downs S&P+, 122nd in Standard Downs S&P+, 122nd in Rushing S&P+. Yuck.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90.8	3.26	2.71	43.2%	72.7%	20.8%	114.8	7.4%	5.0%
Rank	105	103	23	111	91	42	39	8	90

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Robert Kough	DT	6'3, 239	Jr.	NR	12	32.0	5.2%	9.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Zach Watts	DE				11	31.0	5.1%	2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Richard Glover	DT	6'0, 247	Jr.	NR	10	18.5	3.0%	7.5	2	0	0	0	1
Jarrett Mackey	DE	6'1, 235	Sr.	NR	7	17.0	2.8%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
James Kelly	DE	6'3, 220	Jr.	** (5.4)	11	10.5	1.7%	1.5	0	0	0	1	0
Michael Ugenyi	DT	6'3, 257	Jr.	NR	11	10.0	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Holt Zalneraitis	DE	6'2, 224	Sr.	NR	7	8.0	1.3%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Clayton Keller	DE	6'1, 230	Sr	NR	5	6.5	1.1%	3.5	1	0	0	0	0
Joe Drummond	DT	6'3, 228	Jr.	NR	10	6.5	1.1%	2	0.5	0	0	0	0
T.J. Atimalala	DT	5'11, 260	So.	** (5.3)	9	4.5	0.7%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Maxwell	DE	6'5, 231	Sr.	NR	11	3.5	0.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Dalton Mendenhall	DE	6'3, 225	So.	** (5.3)	12	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Derek Sanchez	DE	6'3, 206	Jr.	** (5.3)	5	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shane Finnane	DT	5'10, 238	Sr.	NR
Ryan Alexander	DE	6'1, 232	So.	*** (5.5)
Andrew McLean	DE	6'3, 240	Fr.	*** (5.5)

7. A tricky pass rush

Army's 58 tackles for loss really was a nice total for such a bad defense. And while star linebacker Nate Combs is gone, Army does return two interesting players up front: Robert Kough and Richard Glover. Now, to say the least, having two defensive tackles who average 243 pounds has plenty of built-in disadvantages. But the two can slice through the line at times, and sophomore end Ryan Alexander, a first-stringer this spring, brings some three-star upside to the table as well. This is a tiny, tiny line, but it wasn't Army's biggest problem last year, and it won't be this year.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Meier	ROV	6'2, 200	So.	NR	12	58.0	9.5%	2	1	1	2	0	2
Nate Combs	BAN				10	47.5	7.8%	12	6	1	4	3	3
Thomas Holloway	ROV	5'11, 196	Sr.	NR	12	19.0	3.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
C.J. Shelley	MLB				9	5.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zachary Williams	LB	5'11, 202	Sr.	NR	12	4.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Colin Linkul	BAN	6'0, 188	Jr.	NR	11	2.5	0.4%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Corey Watts	LB	5'11, 205	Sr.	NR	3	2.0	0.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Stephen Ricciardi	LB	6'0, 196	Jr.	NR	8	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Colby Miller	MLB	6'1, 209	Sr.	NR
Tyler McLees	MLB	5'11, 215	So.	** (5.2)
Scott Washie	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	** (5.4)

8. Replacing the lone play-maker

The linebacking corps and secondary were almost totally bereft of play-makers in 2012. Linebacker-turned-safety Geoffery Bacon was asked to make far too many tackles but did make a few behind the line; but for the most part, the end-all, be-all on the Army defense was bandit linebacker Nate Combs, who made almost three times as many tackles for loss and sacks (12 and six, respectively) as the rest of the linebackers combined (4.5 and 2.5). He led the team in those categories, forced fumbles, and fumble recoveries, and he was second in passes defensed, and now he's gone. Plus, Bacon has moved to safety, leaving behind a linebacking corps that has no proven play-makers and wasn't very good even with Combs and Bacon.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Geoffery Bacon	FS	6'0, 207	Jr.	** (5.2)	12	100.5	16.4%	4.5	1	1	1	1	0
Brandon Fusilier-Jeffires	FS	6'1, 185	So.	NR	11	66.5	10.9%	1	0	1	2	0	0
Chris Carnegie	CB	6'0, 180	So.	** (5.2)	12	43.0	7.0%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Justin Trimble	SAM	5'11, 204	Sr.	** (5.0)	11	23.5	3.8%	0	0	2	3	0	0
Josh Jackson	CB				9	20.5	3.4%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Ty Shrader	FS				8	13.0	2.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marques Avery	DB	6'1, 186	Jr.	NR	7	11.5	1.9%	0	0	0	6	0	0
Hayden Pierce	SAM	6'3, 187	Jr.	** (5.2)	6	10.5	1.7%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Justin Allen	CB				12	5.5	0.9%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Waverly Washington	CB				4	5.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kyler Martin	DB				11	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Tyler Dickson	DB	5'11, 195	Sr.	NR	9	4.5	0.7%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Lyle Beloney	DB	5'11, 197	Sr.	** (5.1)	6	4.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lamar Johnson-Harris	CB	5'9, 173	Jr.	NR
Shaquille Tolbert	CB	5'9, 180	So.	** (5.4)
Kale Youtzy	DB	6'1, 195	Fr.	** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Chris Boldt			34	38.1	3	10	7	50.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Eric Osteen			53	62.8	29	54.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Dan Grochowski	6'2, 205	So.	24-27	7-9	77.8%	3-7	42.9%
Eric Osteen			2-3	2-3	66.7%	1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Julian Crockett	KR	5'8, 164	Sr.	26	19.2	0
Stephen Fraser	KR	5'10, 187	Jr.	12	20.8	0
Larry Dixon	KR	6'0, 238	Jr.	3	25.3	0
Jon Crucitti	PR	5'11, 195	Sr.	6	2.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	85
Net Punting	114
Net Kickoffs	16
Touchback Pct	13
Field Goal Pct	84
Kick Returns Avg	87
Punt Returns Avg	105

9. Eric Osteen had a cannon

Aside from Combs, Army's best defensive weapon was probably kicker Eric Osteen, who consistently forced opponents to start from the 25-yard line. He's gone, too. I'm just not sure how the defense improves this year, even though it almost literally cannot regress any further.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Morgan State	NR
7-Sep	at Ball State	84
14-Sep	Stanford	5
21-Sep	Wake Forest	85
28-Sep	vs. Louisiana Tech	89
5-Oct	at Boston College	71
12-Oct	Eastern Michigan	118
19-Oct	at Temple	66
2-Nov	at Air Force	91
9-Nov	Western Kentucky	94
30-Nov	at Hawaii	100
14-Dec	vs. Navy	95

Five-Year F/+ Rk	104
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	117
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-8 / -4.1
TO Luck/Game	-1.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (9, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+5.7

10. Try, try again

Army went 6-4 in one-possession games, and 12-13 overall, in Rich Ellerson's first two seasons at West Point. In the last two seasons, thanks mostly to the collapse of the defense, the Black Knights have gone just 2-6 in one-possession games and 5-19 overall. And now its four-year starting quarterback is gone.

And the 2013 schedule isn't amazingly forgiving, with just three teams projected 100th or worse. (Granted, six others are projected no better than 84th, but Army probably isn't going to rank 84th, so it needs all the help it can get.) The run game should be fine again, but unless some position changes and newcomers to the defensive rotation -- end Ryan Alexander, corner Shaq Tolbert, linebacker Tyler McLees -- can raise the upside considerably, I don't have much hope in this team.

Two years ago, it looked like Army had turned a corner in its long battle to catch back up with Navy and simply provide sustained competence on the football field. But the Black Knights lost major ground in 2011 and 2012, and I'm not sure how they get it back.