College Football

2013 BYU football's 10 things to know: Identity, an ambitious schedule, and KVN4Heisman

BYU couldn't keep a quarterback healthy in 2012, and its offensive issues (and some turnovers luck) wasted the efforts of what was perhaps the most fun defense in the country to watch. The defense is thinner, but the offense could be healthy enough to meet the challenge of what is one hell of a 2013 schedule. For more on Cougars football, visit BYU community Vanquish The Foe.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC May 15, 2013, 11:50am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Progressing toward the mean

On Tuesday, we talked about a Navy team that benefited severely from close-game bounces; the Midshipmen went 4-0 in one-possession games to finish 8-5 despite looking pretty awful on paper.

Today, we talk about the opposite effect. On paper, BYU was a Top 25 team. The Cougars had one of the best defenses in the country, replete with an absolutely terrifying front seven, and thrived despite a directionless offense. But they lost nearly three points per game to turnovers luck, lost three games by three or fewer points, and went 1-4 overall in one-possession games. With Navy's luck, BYU might have gone 11-2 or 12-1 in 2012. Instead, the Cougars finished with Navy's record (8-5) despite finishing 74 spots higher in the F/+ rankings.

Of course, it's only fair, I guess. In 2011, BYU went 4-1 in one-possession games and finished 10-3 despite a No. 40 F/+ ranking. Like Navy, the Cougars simply got their records reversed. Whereas 2012 should have been seen as the culmination of a three-year rebuilding process for head coach Bronco Mendenhall, it was instead seen as one big pile of frustration. With a defense that allowed its fewest points in 33 years, BYU was great at staying close and terrible at closing the deal, losing by three points at rival Utah, by one point at Boise State, by three points at Notre Dame, and by six points at San Jose State. So close.

In 2013, we'll see if the luck stabilizes a bit. We'll also see if BYU can figure out what the hell it wants to be on offense, and if a couple of stud sophomores are ready to have their names on the marquee.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 \| Adj. Record: 11-2 \| Final F/+ Rk: 23
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
30-Aug	Washington State	30-6	W	29.9 - 12.5	W
8-Sep	Weber State	45-13	W	33.0 - 18.3	W
15-Sep	at Utah	21-24	L	20.1 - 16.6	W
20-Sep	at Boise State	6-7	L	18.4 - 9.5	W
28-Sep	Hawaii	47-0	W	43.8 - 12.9	W
5-Oct	Utah State	6-3	W	29.8 - 10.4	W
13-Oct	Oregon State	24-42	L	26.9 - 35.1	L
20-Oct	at Notre Dame	14-17	L	23.6 - 29.1	L
27-Oct	at Georgia Tech	41-17	W	29.2 - 8.1	W
10-Nov	Idaho	52-13	W	29.8 - 23.4	W
17-Nov	at San Jose State	14-20	L	29.7 - 22.7	W
24-Nov	at New Mexico State	50-14	W	28.8 - 18.1	W
20-Dec	San Diego State	23-6	W	17.6 - 10.9	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	28.7	65	14.0	3
Adj. Points Per Game	27.7	70	17.5	5

2. Rallying behind Taysom Hill

BYU cycled through the quarterbacks in 2012. Riley Nelson, finally getting a chance to prove himself as a starter for an entire season, instead struggled with injuries. Taysom Hill, Nelson's anointed successor, directed BYU's best performance of the season (against Hawaii), then bowed out with a knee injury on a play that was supposed to be in victory formation. Nelson returned despite a back injury, then got knocked out with rib issues. James Lark finished the season.

Adj. Points Per Game with Riley Nelson at quarterback (9 games): BYU 26.7, Opponent 19.5 (plus-7.2)
Adj. Points Per Game with Taysom Hill at quarterback (2 games): BYU 36.8, Opponent 11.7 (plus-25.1)
Adj. Points Per Game with James Lark at quarterback (2 games): BYU 23.2, Opponent 14.5 (plus-8.7)

The injuries left BYU headless for a good portion of the year. The Cougars were far from bad on offense, but they were directionless and, at best, mediocre to decent. And it probably goes without saying that you are more likely to lose close games if you have no idea what to expect from the quarterback position.

We do, however, know that BYU's best game of the season came with Hill at quarterback. We also know that Hill is both healthy and the only one left from last year's QB battle. The backup is an untested walk-on, and former blue-chipper Tanner Mangum is going on a two-year mission. Hill is the man in Provo. Now he just needs to remain upright.

Taysom Hill. Russ Isabella-US PRESSWIRE.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	60	53	43	55
RUSHING	65	59	70	52
PASSING	50	49	32	62
Standard Downs		54	50	61
Passing Downs		44	32	52
Redzone		71	60	82

Q1 Rk	49	1st Down Rk	47
Q2 Rk	43	2nd Down Rk	101
Q3 Rk	106	3rd Down Rk	48
Q4 Rk	30

3. Wanted: an identity

BYU's offense was decent at most things and good at almost nothing in 2012. The Cougars were well above average in terms of converting passing downs (usually by way of an eight-yard gain on third-and-8), but they fell into too many passing downs to be consistently solid. Their running game was relatively explosive but prone to losses. Their passing game was perfectly efficient but less than explosive. And their identity changed based on who was behind center. With Taysom Hill, BYU averaged 50 rushes and 30 passes per game. With Lark, it was 33 rushes and 47 passes (despite holding a lead through most of each game). And with Nelson, it was 38 rushes and 42 passes.

Naturally, these changes happened because of the skill sets of the QBs at hand. But you get whiplash looking at the twists and turns in BYU's 2012 identity.

There is hope in this regard, however, and part of this hope comes in a complete lack of options. Hill is the guy, and his ability to run (and his inability to, as of yet, pass consistently or avoid sacks) pretty much ends the search for an identity. With Hill as signal caller, expect a run-heavy attack, which suits the personnel well. Hill was explosive, and Jamaal Williams, a freshman thrust into action with the transfer of Josh Quezada, at the very least held his own. With a limited passing game, BYU has no choice but to lean on its backfield. And it might pay off.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Riley Nelson				181	308	2,011	58.8%	13	13	21	6.4%	5.7
James Lark				73	116	778	62.9%	8	2	3	2.5%	6.3
Taysom Hill	6'2, 218	So.	*** (5.6)	42	71	425	59.2%	4	2	6	7.8%	5.0
Ammon Olsen	6'3, 209	So.	NR

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Jamaal Williams	RB	6'0, 190	So.	*** (5.5)	166	775	4.7	4.4	12	+0.4
Riley Nelson	QB				65	341	5.2	3.0	1	+2.9
Michael Alisa	RB	6'1, 220	Sr.	** (5.4)	58	222	3.8	2.8	1	-3.9
Taysom Hill	QB	6'2, 218	So.	*** (5.6)	49	373	7.6	6.4	4	+13.3
David Foote	RB				42	198	4.7	3.6	0	-1.0
Paul Lasike	RB	6'0, 227	Jr.	NR	33	129	3.9	1.5	2	-2.8
JD Falslev	SLOT	5'8, 184	Sr.	NR	18	109	6.1	11.5	0	+2.3
James Lark	QB				14	44	3.1	1.8	1	-2.4
Iona Pritchard	RB	6'0, 244	Jr.	** (5.1)	13	39	3.0	1.9	0	-2.1
Adam Hine	RB	6'1, 202	So.	*** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Cody Hoffman

6'4, 215

Sr.

** (5.0)

145

100

1248

69.0%

8.6

31.7%

60.0%

8.6

160.8

JD Falslev

SLOT

5'8, 184

Sr.

274

60.7%

4.5

13.3%

52.5%

4.6

35.3

Ross Apo

6'3, 207

Jr.

**** (5.9)

311

56.4%

5.7

12.0%

65.5%

5.4

40.1

Kaneakua Friel

6'5, 250

Sr.

** (5.4)

308

58.8%

6.0

11.2%

76.5%

5.7

39.7

Jamaal Williams

6'0, 190

So.

*** (5.5)

315

75.0%

8.8

7.9%

52.8%

8.9

40.6

Skyler Ridley

6'0, 182

Sr.

206

69.0%

7.1

6.3%

48.3%

7.0

26.5

David Foote

122

63.2%

6.4

4.2%

63.2%

6.5

15.7

Devin Mahina

6'6, 247

Jr.

**** (5.8)

128

66.7%

10.7

2.6%

50.0%

9.6

16.5

Richard Wilson

6'3, 240

Sr.

*** (5.7)

102

58.3%

8.5

2.6%

83.3%

10.6

13.1

Michael Alisa

6'1, 220

Sr.

** (5.4)

66.7%

2.6

2.0%

77.8%

1.8

3.0

Austin Holt

6'5, 250

Jr.

*** (5.7)

50.0%

5.5

0.9%

25.0%

9.0

2.8

Mitch Mathews

6'6, 213

So.

*** (5.5)

66.7%

9.0

0.7%

100.0%

5.4

3.5

Brett Thompson

6'3, 220

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Eric Thornton

SLOT

5'9, 170

So.

Talon Shumway

6'3, 190

Fr.

*** (5.5)

4. Grading Cody Hoffman on a curve

Because Hill only really played about 2.5 games (he was used quite a bit against Boise State), BYU's full-season stats skewed toward the pass. That was a problem, as really only Cody Hoffman provided any value in the passing game.

The slot receiver averaged 7.4 yards per catch, which is fine as long as you've got about an 80 percent catch rate; Falslev's was only 60 percent. Former blue-chipper Ross Apo contributed very little. The tight ends were decent but didn't stand out. Williams and Skyler Ridley at least contributed decent catch rates, but it is a bit of a miracle that Hoffman was even able to average 8.6 yards per target considering the attention defenses were able to give to him.

The receiving corps has plenty of former three- and four-star recruits in it, and if players like Apo or tight end Devin Mahina (who did pretty well with his one target per game) were to suddenly play like they were supposed to coming out of high school, then Hill might begin to get the help he needs. But that's a pretty big if.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.1	2.85	3.26	40.8%	72.5%	19.4%	106.9	5.7%	6.0%
Rank	52	82	59	43	36	72	58	81	50

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Braden Hansen	C				49 career starts
Braden Brown	RT				41 career starts
Ryker Mathews	LT	6'6, 292	So.	**** (5.8)	13 career starts
Houston Reynolds	C	6'2, 305	Sr.	** (5.4)	11 career starts
Manaaki Vaitai	C	6'3, 317	Sr.	*** (5.6)	9 career starts
Solomone Kafu	LG	6'2, 305	Jr.	** (4.9)	8 career starts
Blair Tushaus	C				7 career starts
Brock Stringham	RG	6'6, 290	Jr.	*** (5.5)	3 career starts
Famika Anae	LG				1 career start
Michael Yeck	RT	6'8, 288	Jr.	** (5.4)
Tui Crichton	LG	6'3, 343	So.	*** (5.6)
Terrance Alletto	C	6'3, 285	So.	*** (5.7)
De'Ondre Wesley	OL	6'6, 310	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Edward Fusi	OL	6'1, 285	Jr.	** (5.2)
Josh Carter	OL	6'5, 290	Jr.	** (5.2)
Brayden Kearsley	OL	6'5, 295	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Brad Wilcox	LT	6'7, 285	Fr.	** (5.3)

5. The line needed help

The BYU offensive line certainly wasn't bad in 2012 ... but it wasn't very good, either. The Cougars were right at about the middle of FBS in terms of run blocking and pass protection, converting pretty well on short-yardage situations but struggling with breakdowns, especially on standard downs. Opponents were able to make a lot of stops in the backfield against both the run and pass (particularly when Hill was at QB).

And Bronco Mendenhall clearly thought of the line as an issue, bringing in three junior college transfers, plus a four-star freshman in Brayden Kearsley, to plump up the depth chart. The reinforcements better be ready, because BYU now faces replacing a three-year starting tackle (Braden Brown) and a four-year starting center (Braden Hansen). BYU is bereft of experienced Bradens in 2013; perhaps a young Brayden, and maybe a De'Ondre, an Edward, a Tui, or a Terrance can keep BYU's line afloat.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	3	7	5	10
RUSHING	2	4	3	6
PASSING	10	14	12	16
Standard Downs		5	3	14
Passing Downs		13	20	10
Redzone		12	5	27

Q1 Rk	62	1st Down Rk	9
Q2 Rk	2	2nd Down Rk	19
Q3 Rk	9	3rd Down Rk	1
Q4 Rk	2

6. Damn, was this a good defense last year

I in no way grew up a BYU fan, but it was really, really frustrating watching BYU's offense falter in 2012 and waste some of the opportunities presented to it by a defense that was aggressive, fun, and remarkable. The talent in the front seven was unmatched by just about any school in the country not named Alabama, and while it took a little bit to find its rhythm (BYU saw some slow starts at times) and the passing downs defense could be a little bit leaky at times, if you enjoy attacking defenses, BYU's was for you.

The unit's depth has taken a hit heading into 2013, but the star power is still certainly there in the form of linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Spencer Hadley, corner Jordan Johnson, and perhaps a sophomore or two up front. I cannot guarantee the unit will be quite as effective this fall, but it should be just as aggressive and fun to watch.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	116.5	2.30	2.64	28.8%	59.3%	25.9%	132.1	6.9%	8.9%
Rank	12	2	18	2	16	5	21	13	25

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ezekiel Ansah	DE				13	48.5	7.7%	13	4.5	1	9	1	0
Romney Fuga	NT				13	29.0	4.6%	2.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Bronson Kaufusi	DE	6'7, 270	So.	**** (5.9)	13	17.0	2.7%	5.5	4.5	0	1	0	1
Russell Tialavea	DE				13	14.5	2.3%	2	1	0	2	0	2
Eathyn Manumaleuna	NT	6'2, 288	Sr.	** (5.3)	4	8.0	1.3%	4	2	0	1	1	0
Remington Peck	DE	6'4, 250	So.	*** (5.5)	9	6.0	1.0%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Simote Vea	NT				9	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Mike Muehlmann	DE				2	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Austin Holt	DE	6'5, 250	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Marques Johnson	NT	6'2, 321	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Logan Taele	DE	6'2, 240	So.	NR
Michael Doman	DE	6'4, 240	So.	NR
Tuni Kanuch	NT	6'1, 285	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
JonRyheem Peoples	NT	6'6, 298	Fr.	*** (5.6)

7. Reloading up front

First, let's say this: there is hope. In losing Top 5 draft pick Ziggy Ansah, tackle Romney Fuga, and backup end Russell Tialavea, BYU finds itself in need of replacing three of the four primary members of last year's stellar line. Ansah made Kyle Van Noy's job pretty easy at times and occupied blockers like the perfect 3-4 end, while Fuga was a lovely space-eater.

But there is a load of potential in players like end Bronson Kaufusi, who could be ready for a major star turn, 2011 starter Eathyn Manumaleuna, who missed nine of 13 games last year (and put up similar numbers in 2011 to what Fuga posted last year), and newcomers to the rotation like end Austin Holt and redshirt freshman Tuni Kanuch. This unit is not very proven at this point, but the ceiling is high. And if it can simply remain competent, the linebackers could do the rest.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brandon Ogletree	BLB				13	76.0	12.1%	13.5	0	0	4	0	0
Kyle Van Noy	WLB	6'3, 235	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	45.0	7.2%	22	13	2	5	6	1
Spencer Hadley	SLB	6'1, 227	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	42.5	6.8%	9	3.5	0	1	1	2
Uona Kaveinga	MLB				13	36.5	5.8%	4.5	0.5	1	2	0	1
Uani' Unga	MLB	6'1, 233	Sr.	NR	13	22.0	3.5%	3	1	1	1	1	0
Alani Fua	SLB	6'5, 215	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	10.5	1.7%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Manoa Pikula	BLB	6'1, 235	So.	*** (5.6)	12	7.5	1.2%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Austen Jorgensen	MLB	6'2, 239	Sr.	** (5.4)	4	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Beck	BLB	6'1, 220	Sr.	** (5.3)	4	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jherremya Leuta-Douyere	WLB	6'0, 236	So.	** (5.3)	10	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Toloa'i Ho Ching	MLB	6'0, 225	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Kalolo Manumaleuna Utu	LB	6'2, 250	Jr.	** (5.4)

8. KVN4Heisman

His supporting cast will change, and that is a little bit scary, but Kyle Van Noy was either the best or second-best playmaking linebacker in the country. Only Georgia's Jarvis Jones could challenge him for that title. In Ansah, he had a fantastic setup man up front; and in Brandon Ogletree, he had the perfect tackling machine next to him at inside linebacker. Van Noy was free to take chances because these two guys could help to cover for him. Without them, his production could slip unless players like Kaufusi and new BLB Manoa Pikula step up. But he set the bar so high in 2012 that 18 tackles for loss, five passes defensed, and five forced fumbles would represent slippage.

Van Noy was just so fun to watch in 2012. He logged 4.5 tackles for loss against Utah alone, then threw in two sacks for a loss of 24 yards against Hawaii. After a relatively quiet October, he erupted late: three solo tackles for loss against San Jose State, three more against New Mexico State (all sacks), and 3.5 TFLs, a pick-six, and a blocked punt touchdown against San Diego State in one of the most dominant bowl performances you'll ever see.

BYU's success will depend as much on its offense and its defensive newcomers as it will on Van Noy. But in KVN, BYU has a player for which opponents absolutely must gameplan against and account for on every single play. That is an extreme luxury.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Daniel Sorensen	KAT	6'2, 215	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	54.5	8.7%	2	0	3	5	2	1
Preston Hadley	CB				13	49.5	7.9%	3.5	1.5	1	7	1	0
Jordan Johnson	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	** (5.3)	12	41.5	6.6%	1.5	0	1	15	0	1
Craig Bills	FS	6'2, 209	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	39.0	6.2%	0	0	0	5	1	0
Joe Sampson	FS				9	27.0	4.3%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Matt Hadley	S				7	6.0	1.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Hague	CB	5'10, 190	Sr.	** (5.4)	4	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Skye PoVey	DB	5'11, 200	Sr.	NR	3	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Micah Hannemann	DB				8	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Adam Hogan	CB	5'11, 180	Sr.	NR
Blake Morgan	FS	5'11, 184	Sr.	NR
Michael Wadsworth	KAT	6'1, 182	So.	NR
Trent Trammell	DB	5'11, 180	Jr.	** (5.4)
Samuel Lee	DB	6'0, 180	Jr.	** (5.4)
Jacob Hannemann	CB	6'1, 190	Fr.	** (5.2)
Dallin Leavitt	DB	5'11, 202	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Riley Stephenson			59	45.4	5	10	30	67.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Justin Sorensen	6'1, 232	Sr.	63	62.4	26	41.3%
Riley Stephenson			8	60.0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Justin Sorensen	6'1, 232	Sr.	27-30	6-10	60.0%	0-2	0.0%
Riley Stephenson			16-19	4-6	66.7%	0-0	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
JD Falslev	KR	5'8, 184	Sr.	11	26.0	0
Joe Sampson	KR			8	21.0	0
Cody Hoffman	KR	6'4, 215	Sr.	3	24.0	0
JD Falslev	PR	5'8, 184	Sr.	26	9.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	71
Net Punting	2
Net Kickoffs	59
Touchback Pct	56
Field Goal Pct	113
Kick Returns Avg	19
Punt Returns Avg	65

9. Riley Stephenson was a weapon

As good as the BYU defense was, it was done some serious favors in the field position battle. Punter Riley Stephenson was just about as good as it gets, averaging over 45 yards per kick and rarely allowing for a good return opportunity. His isn't the biggest departure BYU must account for in 2013, but he's an important one, especially considering how iffy BYU's special teams play was outside of the punting game (and kick returns).

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Virginia	65
7-Sep	Texas	11
21-Sep	Utah	52
27-Sep	Middle Tennessee	98
4-Oct	at Utah State	46
12-Oct	Georgia Tech	38
19-Oct	at Houston	57
25-Oct	Boise State	12
9-Nov	at Wisconsin	14
16-Nov	Idaho State	NR
23-Nov	at Notre Dame	8
30-Nov	at Nevada	74

Five-Year F/+ Rk	30
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	70
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / +4.0
TO Luck/Game	-2.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (8, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-5.1

10. Hello, spotlight

Since BYU's move out of the Mountain West and into independence, I've considered it an honorary BCS-level squad, right alongside Notre Dame. The Cougars have never had any major-conference affiliation, but they have a national title and a Heisman in the trophy case, and they have played at a reliably major level through most of the last four decades.

And with 2013's schedule, they are certainly acting like a major program. Holy moly. In a month's span late in the season, BYU visits both Wisconsin and Notre Dame and welcomes Boise State to town. They host Texas and Utah in September, make an early trip to Virginia, and, in all, play seven BCS conference teams, plus Utah State and Boise State, 2012's two best mid-majors. In all, only two opponents are projected worse than 75th, and seven are projected 52nd or better. That is a very impressive slate, better than that of a lot of BCS teams.

BYU could be ready for it, too. It's difficult to make an outright guarantee of that with an all-sophomore offensive backfield, new faces on the offensive line, and new players complementing Van Noy. But the Cougars still have Van Noy, Cody Hoffman, an active secondary, and a world of potential on the defensive line. And they might have an offensive identity to boot.

All bets are off if Taysom Hill gets hurt, but I see BYU as a legitimate Top 20-25 team heading into 2013. And if the Cougars are ready to actually close games this time around, they could escape from a tough schedule with a lot of tough wins. I like this team a lot.