2013 Notre Dame football's 10 things to know: The Irish aren't going away

Note: This preview was written before Everett Golson's dismissal. A video update:

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Nailed it (sort of)

Just as the folks whose opinions tend to create conventional wisdom give up on the Irish, the numbers conspire to prop them up. And the reason should be obvious for anybody who watched Notre Dame in 2011: turnovers. Surely they cannot go against the Irish to the same degree in 2012, right? Surely, if Tommy Rees is even the starting quarterback, he won't have quite the same red zone interception tendencies, right? Surely Notre Dame opponents won't do quite as much damage with the turnovers they receive, right? […]

It is difficult to ignore just how well Notre Dame has recruited recently, just how much the stats like them, and just how much turnovers -- a notoriously fickle statistic from year to year -- conspired against what might have otherwise been a 10- or 11-win season last year. However, it is almost good, in my case, that the schedule is so difficult because it allows me to hedge my bets.

That's from last year's Notre Dame preview. That last-second hedge ruined it.

Last year, I talked myself into Notre Dame to what I figured was a dangerous degree. The Irish were so unlucky in 2011 and so close to something greater, with a No. 13 F/+ ranking and a potentially outstanding defense. They returned so many interesting players, and the depth chart was going to be further plumped up by young blue-chippers. I was ready to go all-in on Notre Dame at the same time that everybody else was cashing out, but I was cowed a bit by the schedule. I figured that even a top-10 performance would still result in a couple of losses along the way. I wasn't really counting on the Irish going 5-0 in one-possession games after losing three heart-breakers the year before.

Really, Notre Dame in 2011 was more like a nine- or 10-win team, and Notre Dame in 2012 was more like a 10- or 11-win team. Regardless, last year's trip to the BCS title game wasn't much of a fluke. This was an elite team, one that simply took one more step in its blue-blood reclamation and got a few of the lucky breaks it very much did not get the year before.

2. This is how it's supposed to go

When you hire a new coach, what you're hoping for is a guy who can make the most of the talent on hand and build onto the foundation, brick by brick, with each passing year. It rarely actually works out that way. There are surges and setbacks, senior classes that cannot be immediately replaced, lulls in development, et cetera. It rarely works out as smoothly as you hope. And to be sure, with some of the turnovers luck and other factors, it wasn't an incredibly smooth first couple of seasons for Brian Kelly in South Bend.

But on paper, the growth has been clear and steady. The defense surged to 16th in Def. F/+, and the offense regressed to 37th in Off. F/+ in Kelly's first season, then both units improved in 2011 (14th and 22nd, respectively) and did so again in 2012 (13th and ninth). An incredible front seven masked deficiencies in the defensive backfield, and a new quarterback helped to create an underrated, efficient offense after a rough first month.

So can Notre Dame improve again in Kelly's fourth year? Don't rule it out. The defense will have to craft a new personality without last year's senior leader, but the front seven is still terrifying, and some blue-chippers (recruiting has just been so damn strong) could help fill out a deeper, more confident secondary. And while sophomore quarterback Everett Golson's go-tos (tight end Tyler Eifert, running back Theo Riddick) have been taken away, the offensive upside might be quite a bit higher this year overall.

We'll see if schedule and bad luck interfere with another run at the national title, but on paper there is a good chance that Kelly's fourth year sees a fourth straight year of improvement.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-1 | Adj. Record: 13-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 7
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	vs. Navy	50-10	W	38.7 - 25.5	W
8-Sep	Purdue	20-17	W	24.1 - 18.6	W
15-Sep	at Michigan State	20-3	W	29.3 - 12.8	W
22-Sep	Michigan	13-6	W	25.0 - 19.5	W
6-Oct	vs. Miami	41-3	W	41.2 - 18.3	W
13-Oct	Stanford	20-13	W	34.4 - 22.0	W
20-Oct	BYU	17-14	W	50.6 - 18.8	W
27-Oct	at Oklahoma	30-13	W	34.2 - 19.6	W
3-Nov	Pittsburgh	29-26	W	35.1 - 18.0	W
10-Nov	at Boston College	21-6	W	35.4 - 24.3	W
17-Nov	Wake Forest	38-0	W	44.3 - 17.1	W
24-Nov	at USC	22-13	W	37.3 - 26.0	W
7-Jan	vs. Alabama	14-42	L	42.2 - 32.7	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	25.8	80	12.8	2
Adj. Points Per Game	36.3	12	21.0	13

3. Blast off

That Notre Dame got through September undefeated was a minor miracle. The Irish won three straight games while never scoring more than 20 points; and despite starting Golson, then a redshirt freshman, behind center, they brought in closer Tommy Rees off the bench to save the day, first against Purdue (a Golson fumble set up a tying score for Purdue, but Rees drove the Irish 55 yards for the game-winning field goal), then against Michigan (Rees inherited a 3-0 lead late in the second quarter and engineered a couple of scores). But Kelly stuck with Golson, and over the long haul, that proved to be the right decision.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Notre Dame 29.3, Opponent 19.1 (plus-10.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 8 games): Notre Dame 39.1, Opponent 20.5 (plus-18.6)

Over the first four games, Golson completed 50 of 89 passes (56 percent) for 641 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. But in the week off between Michigan and Miami, things began to click. Against Miami and Stanford, he completed 29 of 46 passes (63 percent) for 327 yards and a score, and after missing the BYU game with a concussion, he would go on to finish the regular season by completing 87 of 147 (59 percent) for 1,167 yards, seven touchdowns, and two picks.

Golson's raw stats (59 percent completion rate, 7.0 yards per attempt) were not incredible to the naked eye, but taking into account how many good defenses he faced -- Alabama ranked first in Def. F/+, Michigan State ranked third, Stanford ranked eighth, Oklahoma ranked 23rd, and Michigan ranked 28th (and he missed out on No. 10 BYU) -- his efficiency numbers were actually quite strong. Notre Dame did rank third in Success Rate+, after all (see below). That Kelly stuck with him after his 3-for-8-with-two-picks performance against Michigan was rather incredible. But it paid off.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	54	9	3	11
RUSHING	38	9	9	11
PASSING	72	5	2	11
Standard Downs		7	8	9
Passing Downs		13	7	21
Redzone		37	28	52

Q1 Rk	5	1st Down Rk	3
Q2 Rk	9	2nd Down Rk	1
Q3 Rk	3	3rd Down Rk	14
Q4 Rk	27

4. A few more big plays wouldn't hurt

In Tyler Eifert, T.J. Jones, Theo Riddick, and Robby Toma, Golson had four rather reliable efficiency guys. Eifert even found some nice gains up the seam from time to time. But if Notre Dame was lacking in one area, it was in the big-play department. The Irish still ranked 11th in PPP+, so clearly this wasn't an extreme weakness, but with Riddick carrying more than the explosive Cierre Wood and DaVaris Daniels missing part of the season with injury, the fast cars in the garage didn't get driven too often.

In 2013, Golson loses his security blanket; Riddick, Eifert, and Toma are all gone. So is Wood, for that matter. But it does appear that explosive players like Daniels and George Atkinson III will get more touches. The question is whether increased explosiveness comes at the cost of decreased efficiency.

George Atkinson III. Matt Cashore, US Presswire.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Everett Golson	6'0, 185	So.	*** (5.7)	187	318	2,405	58.8%	12	6	15	4.5%	7.0
Tommy Rees	6'2, 213	Sr.	*** (5.7)	34	59	436	57.6%	2	2	1	1.7%	7.1
Andrew Hendrix	6'2, 226	Jr.	**** (5.8)	5	7	55	71.4%	0	0	1	12.5%	6.8
Malik Zaire	6'0, 196	Fr.	**** (5.9)

5. Removing the training wheels

Golson passed the tests he needed to pass.

Owen Field is one of the loudest venues in the country, and when Oklahoma came back to tie Notre Dame on October 27 and OU's Memorial Stadium hit fifth gear, Golson immediately made a series of big plays, including a bomb to Chris Brown, and won the game for Notre Dame. He helped to avert disaster against Pittsburgh, and in general, he improved decidedly as the season progressed.

He was stocked with reliable, experienced possession guys, and Notre Dame called a lot of runs on passing downs. It behooves you to keep a young quarterback out of must-pass situations as much as possible (especially when you have a great defense), and Notre Dame did that.

But without Eifert and company, without last year's top two running backs, and without a couple of key cogs from a great run-blocking line, there's a chance that Golson has to take on more responsibility to make plays when the Irish fall behind schedule. He might continue to meet the challenges he needs to meet, but he will certainly face a few more as he attempts to avert a sophomore slump of sorts.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Theo Riddick	RB				190	917	4.8	3.5	5	+4.0
Cierre Wood	RB				114	742	6.5	6.8	4	+18.5
Everett Golson	QB	6'0, 185	So.	*** (5.7)	79	388	4.9	4.1	6	+1.7
George Atkinson III	RB	6'2, 217	Jr.	**** (5.8)	51	361	7.1	8.5	5	+10.6
Cam McDaniel	RB	5'10, 199	Jr.	*** (5.6)	23	125	5.4	2.7	1	+0.9
Andrew Hendrix	QB	6'2, 226	Jr.	**** (5.8)	7	42	6.0	3.5	0	+0.9
Will Mahone	RB	5'11, 214	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Greg Bryant	RB	5'11, 197	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Tarean Folston	RB	5'10, 195	Fr.	**** (5.9)
William Fuller	WR	6'1, 168	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tyler Eifert	TE				84	50	685	59.5%	8.2	23.1%	59.5%	8.2	115.6
T.J. Jones	WR	5'11, 192	Sr.	**** (5.8)	82	50	649	61.0%	7.9	22.5%	69.5%	8.1	109.5
Theo Riddick	RB				53	36	370	67.9%	7.0	14.6%	52.8%	6.7	62.4
DaVaris Daniels	WR	6'2, 192	So.	**** (5.8)	46	31	490	67.4%	10.7	12.6%	65.2%	10.6	82.7
Robby Toma	WR				38	24	252	63.2%	6.6	10.4%	63.2%	6.6	42.5
Troy Niklas	TE	6'7, 259	Jr.	**** (5.8)	11	5	75	45.5%	6.8	3.0%	63.6%	6.9	12.7
Daniel Smith	WR	6'4, 213	Sr.	*** (5.6)	11	7	47	63.6%	4.3	3.0%	18.2%	5.2	7.9
Chris Brown	WR	6'2, 191	So.	*** (5.7)	10	2	56	20.0%	5.6	2.7%	80.0%	4.2	9.4
John Goodman	WR				9	7	159	77.8%	17.7	2.5%	44.4%	19.4	26.8
Ben Koyack	TE	6'5, 261	Jr.	**** (5.9)	6	3	39	50.0%	6.5	1.6%	50.0%	5.9	6.6
Cierre Wood	RB				6	5	25	83.3%	4.2	1.6%	83.3%	5.5	4.2
George Atkinson III	RB	6'2, 217	Jr.	**** (5.8)	3	2	4	66.7%	1.3	0.8%	100.0%	0.8	0.7
Cam McDaniel	RB	5'10, 199	Jr.	*** (5.6)	2	2	41	100.0%	20.5	0.5%	100.0%	12.4	6.9
Corey Robinson	WR	6'4, 195	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Mike Heuerman	TE	6'4, 220	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Torii Hunter, Jr.	WR	6'0, 172	Fr.	**** (5.8)

6. Potential vs. production

The Irish have just so damn many blue-chippers at this point. Of the five returning or incoming running backs above, three are former four-star recruits and one is a former five-star. Of the nine returning or incoming receivers and tight ends above, five are former four-star recruits.

The problem is, few have either proven their potential or gotten a chance to do so yet. George Atkinson looked incredible in the open field but got fewer than four carries per game. DaVaris Daniels looked the part of a big-time No. 1 receiver against Purdue, Pitt, and Alabama but disappeared in other games and got hurt late in the year. Blue-chip tight ends Troy Niklas and Ben Koyack combined for 17 targets. And incoming star freshmen like Greg Bryant, Tarean Folston, and Corey Robinson are, indeed, freshmen.

The potential here is ridiculous, but really, only T.J. Jones is a proven commodity at this point. Until you prove your potential, there's a chance you won't.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	118.4	3.19	3.28	43.2%	81.8%	18.2%	121.2	4.6%	4.4%
Rank	7	23	58	22	3	51	43	60	27

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Zack Martin	LT	6'4, 308	Sr.	**** (5.8)	39 career starts
Braxston Cave	C				37 career starts
Chris Watt	LG	6'3, 321	Sr.	**** (6.0)	26 career starts
Mike Golic, Jr.	RG				15 career starts
Christian Lombard	RT	6'5, 322	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13 career starts
Bruce Heggie	RG	6'5, 286	Jr.	** (5.2)
Conor Hanratty	LG	6'5, 309	So.	*** (5.6)
Nick Martin	RT	6'5, 284	So.	*** (5.6)
Ronnie Stanley	LT	6'6, 318	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Steve Elmer	OL	6'6, 305	Fr.	**** (6.0)
John Montelus	OL	6'5, 295	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Hunter Bivin	OL	6'7, 288	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Mike McGlinchey	OL	6'9, 280	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	7	12	22	7
RUSHING	11	17	21	19
PASSING	25	12	28	8
Standard Downs		13	24	8
Passing Downs		17	26	12
Redzone		3	11	1

Q1 Rk	28	1st Down Rk	15
Q2 Rk	12	2nd Down Rk	16
Q3 Rk	27	3rd Down Rk	12
Q4 Rk	4

7. Time for a new identity

I'll say this: I'm not really worried about the loss of Manti Te'o. He was the quarterback of the Notre Dame defense, and while I didn't really think he should have been a Heisman finalist, that Notre Dame was able to build its entire defense around him quite obviously says something. As I wrote many times last year, the Irish were basically able to form an umbrella with their young, ridiculously thin secondary, allow Te'o to patrol the middle of the field, and rely on a four-man pass rush (the absurdly talented line and OLB Prince Shembo) to generate pressure without much risk.

And it worked. Notre Dame didn't have a Top 5 defense in 2012, but it was an excellent one; the Irish were elite in preventing big plays, seemingly always made stops in the red zone, and played a unique version of the bend-don't-break defense with a high level of success.

Te'o and Kapron Lewis-Moore are the only two losses from the front seven, and with depth and star power, the Irish should be able to absorb those departures without a drop-off. But the personality will change without Te'o, and it will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Bob Diaco re-calibrates. Will he blitz more? Will he utilize a more experienced secondary more aggressively? He hasn't done much of that in South Bend, but he also hasn't ever coached an Irish defense without Te'o yet.

Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix III. Mike Carter, US Presswire.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.6	2.81	3.35	37.9%	48.5%	19.0%	133.5	5.0%	9.4%
Rank	45	44	75	52	2	69	19	49	19

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Stephon Tuitt	DE	6'6, 322	Jr.	***** (6.1)	13	35.5	5.4%	13	12	0	1	3	1
Louis Nix III	NG	6'3, 347	Jr.	**** (5.9)	13	35.0	5.3%	7.5	2	0	5	1	0
Kapron Lewis-Moore	DE				13	28.5	4.3%	8.5	6	0	2	2	0
Sheldon Day	DE	6'2, 286	So.	**** (5.8)	13	18.0	2.7%	3.5	2	0	1	0	0
Tony Springman	DE	6'6, 284	So.	*** (5.7)	13	7.5	1.1%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Kona Schwenke	NG	6'4, 297	Sr.	*** (5.7)	11	3.0	0.5%	1	0.5	0	0	0	0
Jarron Jones	NG	6'5, 295	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Isaac Rochell	DE	6'5, 260	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Eddie Vanderdoes	NG	6'3, 310	Fr.	***** (6.1)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Manti Te'o	ILB				13	84.0	12.8%	5.5	1.5	7	4	0	2
Dan Fox	ILB	6'3, 242	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	46.5	7.1%	2	1	0	2	0	0
Prince Shembo	OLB	6'2, 258	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	36.5	5.6%	10.5	7.5	0	1	0	1
Carlo Calabrese	ILB	6'1, 244	Sr.	*** (5.7)	12	34.0	5.2%	3	0	0	0	1	0
Danny Spond	OLB	6'2, 248	Sr.	**** (5.8)	11	28.0	4.3%	1	0	1	3	0	0
Ishaq Williams	OLB	6'5, 261	Jr.	***** (6.1)	13	16.5	2.5%	3.5	0	0	1	1	0
Jarrett Grace	ILB	6'3, 248	So.	*** (5.7)	13	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ben Councell	OLB	6'4, 248	So.	**** (5.8)	13	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kendall Moore	ILB	6'1, 244	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Romeo Okwara	OLB	6'4, 258	So.	*** (5.7)	13	5.5	0.8%	1.5	0	0	0	1	0
Joe Schmidt	ILB	6'0, 226	Jr.	NR	10	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Rabasa	OLB	6'3, 243	So.	*** (5.7)	2	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jaylon Smith	LB	6'3, 212	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Doug Randolph	LB	6'3, 237	Fr.	**** (5.9)

8. Goodness, gracious

Notre Dame's front seven this year: 4 former 5-star recruits, 10 former 4-star recruits. Lordy. Thin at DB, but … lordy.

— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) May 15, 2013

And by "thin at DB," I mean only one former 5-star and three 4-stars. Poor guys.

— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) May 15, 2013

Te'o may have been the rock, but man oh man, does this unit have talent. And unlike the skill positions on offense, the front seven has guys who have already proven, or begun to prove, that their recruiting rankings were spot-on. There is nothing I enjoy more on defense than big, athletic linemen with big guts and straight-line speed. There was an abundance of them in 2012 -- Ziggy Ansah at BYU, Sheldon Richardson at Missouri, Sharrif Floyd at Florida -- but two of the most enjoyable will once again be lining up on the Notre Dame line: Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix III. Nix, nearly 350 pounds, is both quick and a really fun quote (#MeatChicken); Tuitt, meanwhile, does things like this...

...at 322 pounds.

And now a pair of five-star freshmen (tackle Eddie Vanderdoes, linebacker Jaylon Smith), among other blue-chippers, join the rotation. The depth up wasn't spectacular in 2012 -- only about four linemen actually played; but a) that probably isn't a problem anymore, and b) the depth at linebacker was, and remains fantastic.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zeke Motta	S				13	58.0	8.8%	2	0	0	3	0	1
Bennett Jackson	CB	6'0, 183	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	55.0	8.4%	1.5	0	4	4	0	1
KeiVarae Russell	CB	5'11, 190	So.	**** (5.8)	13	47.5	7.2%	2	0.5	2	2	0	0
Matthias Farley	S	5'11, 204	So.	*** (5.5)	13	36.0	5.5%	2	0	1	0	0	0
Elijah Shumate	S	6'0, 213	So.	**** (5.8)	13	8.0	1.2%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Dan McCarthy	S				13	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Nicky Baratti	S	6'1, 201	So.	*** (5.7)	13	6.5	1.0%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Jamoris Slaughter	S				3	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Chris Salvi	S				13	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Conor Cavalaris	S	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	11	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Brown	CB	6'1, 207	So.	*** (5.5)	7	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Max Redfield	DB	6'2, 195	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Cole Luke	DB	6'0, 165	Fr.	**** (5.9)

9. Wanted: Corner depth

The play of Te'o and the front seven was good enough to distract from the fact that the secondary, while certainly decent, was paper thin. The safety ranks took a hit when Jamoris Slaughter tore his Achilles in the third game of the year; then-freshman Matthias Farley was thrust into the limelight. Meanwhile, there were almost no corners deemed trustworthy. Bennett Jackson and then-freshman KeiVarae Russell played nearly every down, with converted receivers Josh Atkinson and Cam McDaniel forced to fill in at times.

The top four defensive backs made a total of 196.5 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss and defensed 13 passes. All other defensive backs combined for 37.0 tackles, none for loss, and defensed six passes.

Elijah Shumate showed some promise -- anytime you have almost half as many passes defensed (three) as tackles (8.0), it's a pretty good sign that you're making plays on the ball instead of on the player who has already caught the ball (of course, there's also a chance that you're just missing tackles altogether) -- but there is almost no proven depth here. There could be ample playing time waiting for blue-chip freshmen Max Redfield and Cole Luke if they're ready to claim some.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ben Turk			53	40.8	2	23	14	69.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Kyle Brindza	6'1, 236	Jr.	71	62.6	26	36.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kyle Brindza	6'1, 236	Jr.	28-29	19-23	82.6%	4-8	50.0%
Nick Tausch	6'0, 195	Sr.	5-6	1-1	100.0%	0-0	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
George Atkinson III	KR	6'1, 217	Jr.	22	20.0	0
Cam McDaniel	KR	5'10, 199	Jr.	7	19.3	0
Davonte' Neal	PR			21	2.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	90
Net Punting	31
Net Kickoffs	55
Touchback Pct	58
Field Goal Pct	45
Kick Returns Avg	95
Punt Returns Avg	120

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Temple	66
7-Sep	at Michigan	22
14-Sep	at Purdue	69
21-Sep	Michigan State	18
28-Sep	Oklahoma	7
5-Oct	vs. Arizona State	34
19-Oct	USC	17
26-Oct	at Air Force	91
2-Nov	Navy	95
9-Nov	at Pittsburgh	31
23-Nov	BYU	27
30-Nov	at Stanford	5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	18
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	11
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+8 / +5.5
TO Luck/Game	+1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (6, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-7.9

10. Great team, meet great schedule

One fun way to figure out where a team stands is to play the "How many ifs?" game. How many "Ifs" does it take to put a team at a certain level?

Top 15: If Golson avoids a serious slump, and if a young running back can provide some level of reliability, this should be a Top 15 team based solely on defensive potential and some decent big-play ability on offense.

Top 10: If Golson avoids a serious slump, if a young running back can provide some level of reliability, and if one of the freshman or sophomore DBs breaks through, this is likely a Top 10 team.

Top 5: If Golson avoids a serious slump, if a young running back can provide some level of reliability, if one of the freshman or sophomore DBs breaks through, and if one more receiver breaks through alongside Jones and Daniels, this is likely a Top 5 team.

This isn't an overt number of "ifs." Notre Dame broke into the Top 15 in 2011, then played like it in 2012. I think slight improvement is likely again, though another undefeated record in close games probably isn't. Against a slate the features seven teams projected in the Top 31 (four at home), the Irish will need a couple more breaks to again make the title game, but at this point one cannot question the program's trajectory: It's strong.

Really strong. Whether people saw it 12 months ago doesn't really matter; they see it now.

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