2013 Kentucky football's 10 things to know: A zero-sum game with an Ohio exception

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Mark Stoops has impressed thus far

There were 50,831 fans in attendance at Kentucky's spring game. That's more than Texas or Texas A&M drew, more than SEC East rivals Georgia and South Carolina drew, more than Ohio State drew, and way more than Notre Dame, Oklahoma, or LSU drew. Hell, that's more than Kentucky drew for five of seven real home games in 2012. That many people came to watch not only a scrimmage, but a football scrimmage.

If that doesn't tell you that Mark Stoops has passed his first test as Kentucky's new head coach, I don't know what will.

Florida State's former defensive coordinator, Stoops closed the deal on a pretty good recruiting class; according to Rivals.com, Stoops landed three four-star recruits -- Louisville Trinity DE Jason Hatcher, Youngstown Cardinal Mooney DB Marcus McWilson, and JUCO DE Za'Darius Smith -- and enough other decent recruits to finish with the No. 29 class in the country. He has glad-handed and met the community, he has hired a pretty interesting staff that includes veteran offensive coordinator Neal Brown, an old hand at the spread offense, and young D.J. Eliot, Stoops' defensive ends coach at FSU. He has done everything he can to drum up enthusiasm in Lexington, and he has succeeded.

Stoops has passed the first test with flying colors. But the first test is the easiest. Just like a spring game isn't a real game, the real tests begin this fall, and it's probably going to take a while to see Stoops' efforts paying off to any demonstrable degree.

The reason for this is simple: Kentucky fell so, so far behind over the last couple of seasons. Joker Phillips is by all accounts a great guy and Photoshop whiz, but he couldn't keep the Wildcats afloat following Rich Brooks' retirement in 2009. Kentucky held on in Phillips' first season, falling from 7-6 and 53rd in the F/+ rankings to 6-7 and 54th. But the fall was precipitous, first on paper, then in the win column. Kentucky was 5-7 and 86th in 2011, then amid a youth movement sped up by injuries, crumbled to 2-10 and 112th in 2012.

You could consider it unfair that Phillips was let go when he had some bad breaks and a really, really young team; but when a team falls apart to this degree, you probably aren't going to get it back with the same coach in place. Kentucky elected to make a move, and now Stoops is the man.

2. For Kentucky to go up...

...somebody else in the SEC probably has to go down. This is key. Both Stoops at Kentucky and Butch Jones at Tennessee are pressing all of the right buttons and recruiting well, but that's kind of par for the course in the SEC. Vanderbilt, for instance, has also pressed the right buttons and recruited well of late, and even if each of these programs surpass Missouri -- the Tigers need a good 2013 to avoid a further step backwards in recruiting -- that's just one team.

Who else is going to fall, especially with Ole Miss recruiting like gangbusters and Arkansas and Auburn welcoming new coaches in the SEC West?

Then again, there's Ohio. The reason SEC recruiting is basically a zero-sum game is that most of the teams are fighting for the same elite players in the same region of the country. They will leave the region at times -- Georgia got quarterback Matthew Stafford from the state of Texas, Alabama got Mark Ingram from Michigan, etc. -- but the main reason why the SEC has been so successful of late is that there have been so many good recruits in its collective backyard. That said, Stoops appears to be hitting the recruiting trail hard in a state that is in no way south or east. He signed three Ohio prep players in the 2013 class, and he has scored a jarring five commitments from Ohio kids in the 2014 class thus far (including four star running back Mikel Horton and four-star receiver Thaddeus Snodgrass).

When Missouri entered the SEC, the Tigers not only attempted to establish recruiting footholds in Georgia and Florida, but they also attempted to hit states like Iowa and Illinois hard with their new "Come play in the SEC!" message. It seemed as if it was paying off until they stumbled on the field in 2012 and lost ground.

But there has not yet been any stumbling for Stoops, who was raised in Youngstown and played college football at Iowa. While the Big Ten has been reportedly trying to figure out how to move south, the SEC has, in a way, figured out how to move north. And if Stoops can build a strong base of talent with kids outside of the natural SEC region, the conference just got even tougher.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 112
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
2-Sep	at Louisville	14-32	L	31.0 - 30.7	W
8-Sep	Kent State	47-14	W	45.5 - 26.5	W
15-Sep	Western Kentucky	31-32	L	24.4 - 20.8	W
22-Sep	at Florida	0-38	L	17.7 - 34.1	L
29-Sep	South Carolina	17-38	L	19.8 - 32.6	L
6-Oct	Mississippi State	14-27	L	14.6 - 28.3	L
13-Oct	at Arkansas	7-49	L	10.6 - 48.4	L
20-Oct	Georgia	24-29	L	29.9 - 30.4	L
27-Oct	at Missouri	10-33	L	13.8 - 29.0	L
3-Nov	Vanderbilt	0-40	L	16.3 - 32.3	L
17-Nov	Samford	34-3	W	28.8 - 6.9	W
24-Nov	at Tennessee	17-37	L	19.9 - 30.3	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	17.9	119	31.0	86
Adj. Points Per Game	22.7	109	29.2	71

3. Injuries hurt

Again, Kentucky was really young in 2012, to the point where the Wildcats weren't going to seriously threaten for bowl eligibility even with strong health. But once players started dropping like flies, the results got ugly. As you see above, Kentucky was reasonably decent early in the season. Yes, they lost to in-state mates Louisville and Western Kentucky, but a) both of those teams were pretty good, b) both of those teams were quite good in September, and c) in between, the Wildcats took out a Kent State team that turned out to be quite good, as well. But things got really hairy, really quickly.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Kentucky 33.6, Opponent 26.0 (plus-7.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 9 games): Opponent 30.3, Kentucky 19.0 (minus-11.3)

If you remove the Samford game, the Adj. PPG averages for the last eight games fall to Opponent 33.2, Kentucky 17.8. This team didn't have much depth, and once you skimmed off the top layer -- quarterback Morgan Newton played in just seven games, quarterback Maxwell Smith in four, leading rusher Raymond Sanders missed one game, while fellow CoShik Williams missed 10, and bodies were dropping left and right in the defensive secondary -- there was nothing left behind it. Kentucky's defense regressed, and its offense vanished.

I saw this team in person when the Wildcats came to Missouri, and I was actually rather impressed with what Kentucky was trying to do tactically. It's just that the Wildcats didn't even remotely have the talent to pull off what they were trying to do.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	115	80	75	84
RUSHING	89	34	44	25
PASSING	106	111	99	116
Standard Downs		67	61	69
Passing Downs		94	90	99
Redzone		31	30	38

Q1 Rk	84	1st Down Rk	72
Q2 Rk	74	2nd Down Rk	108
Q3 Rk	88	3rd Down Rk	49
Q4 Rk	95

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Maxwell Smith	6'4, 232	So.	*** (5.5)	103	150	975	68.7%	8	4	5	3.2%	6.1
Jalen Whitlow	6'2, 208	So.	*** (5.5)	87	161	801	54.0%	3	2	15	8.5%	4.0
Patrick Towles	6'5, 234	So.	**** (5.8)	19	40	233	47.5%	1	1	4	9.1%	4.5
Morgan Newton				10	32	73	31.3%	1	3	1	3.0%	1.9

4. Pick a sophomore quarterback … any sophomore quarterback ...

More than anything else, there's one specific reason why Kentucky's offensive production fell apart after three weeks: Maxwell Smith also got hurt after three weeks. He missed the Florida game, took a couple of snaps in the South Carolina game and was done for the season.

While his numbers weren't spectacular (6.1 yards per pass attempt is below average, even with a sparkling 69 percent completion rate), they were infinitely better than those of everybody else who took snaps in 2012. Senior Morgan Newton was such a good quarterback that the New York Giants just signed him as a tight end, and two true freshmen -- Jalen Whitlow and Patrick Towles -- just weren't ready for prime time.

This spring, there was no clear standout in the race to become Stoops' first starting quarterback. Neal Brown's offensive system puts a lot on the shoulders of the guy behind center, and Smith's ability to throw quick, accurate passes would seem to give him an edge, but Whitlow had the best spring game, and the competition is ongoing.

Jalen Whitlow. Andy Lyons, Getty.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Raymond Sanders III	RB	5'8, 199	Sr.	*** (5.7)	125	669	5.4	5.5	5	+8.6
Jonathan George	RB	5'10, 221	Sr.	** (4.9)	108	504	4.7	4.7	4	+0.1
Jalen Whitlow	QB	6'2, 208	So.	*** (5.5)	53	301	5.7	4.1	3	+4.5
Dyshawn Mobley	RB	5'11, 216	So.	*** (5.6)	41	184	4.5	4.1	0	-0.9
Morgan Newton	QB				15	72	4.8	6.4	1	+0.4
CoShik Williams	RB				14	66	4.7	2.4	0	+0.1
Patrick Towles	QB	6'5, 234	So.	**** (5.8)	7	22	3.1	1.6	0	-1.3
Justin Taylor	RB	5'10, 217	RSFr.	*** (5.7)	5	20	4.0	5.1	0	-0.7
Jojo Kemp	RB	5'10, 190	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Khalid Thomas	RB	5'10, 175	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
La'Rod King	WR				87	48	488	55.2%	5.6	23.8%	58.6%	5.6	58.2
Demarco Robinson	WR	5'10, 159	Jr.	*** (5.6)	49	28	297	57.1%	6.1	13.4%	65.3%	5.9	35.4
Aaron Boyd	WR				38	24	233	63.2%	6.1	10.4%	52.6%	5.9	27.8
Daryl Collins	WR	5'11, 205	So.	*** (5.6)	33	17	171	51.5%	5.2	9.0%	42.4%	4.6	20.4
Gene McCaskill	WR				29	18	153	62.1%	5.3	7.9%	55.2%	5.2	18.2
Raymond Sanders III	RB	5'8, 199	Sr.	*** (5.7)	28	18	111	64.3%	4.0	7.7%	57.1%	4.1	13.2
Jonathan George	RB	5'10, 221	Sr.	** (4.9)	25	21	223	84.0%	8.9	6.8%	56.0%	9.0	26.6
Ronnie Shields	TE	6'5, 234	Jr.	** (5.4)	17	9	68	52.9%	4.0	4.7%	58.8%	4.0	8.1
Tyler Robinson	TE	6'3, 261	Sr.	** (5.4)	14	9	97	64.3%	6.9	3.8%	64.3%	6.9	11.6
A.J. Legree	WR	6'1, 188	So.	*** (5.6)	12	12	113	100.0%	9.4	3.3%	25.0%	10.8	13.5
DeMarcus Sweat	WR	6'1, 196	So.	*** (5.5)	9	4	84	44.4%	9.3	2.5%	77.8%	7.3	10.0
E.J. Fields	WR				9	4	23	44.4%	2.6	2.5%	33.3%	3.4	2.7
Javess Blue	WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Steven Borden	TE	6'3, 250	Jr.	** (5.4)
Ryan Timmons	WR	5'10, 185	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Alex Montgomery	WR	6'2, 210	Fr.	*** (5.7)

5. Personnel vs. System

Neal Brown likes to pass. A lot.

With Brown as offensive coordinator in 2012, Texas Tech ran just 39 percent of the time on standard downs, the second-lowest percentage in the country behind Washington State. The Red Raiders ran just 26 percent of the time on passing downs as well, which was 104th. His hire is a fun nod to Kentucky's Air Raid days with head coach Hal Mumme and offensive coordinator Mike Leach (now the head coach of the aforementioned Washington State Cougars), but it will be interesting to see how his play-calling meshes with the talent on hand.

Why? Because most of the talent on hand is at the running back position. Raymond Sanders III is shifty, explosive and a strong receiver out of the backfield. His backfield mates Jonathan George and Dyshawn Mobley also showed more potential than just about anybody at receiver for this team last year. Granted, the receivers were done no favors by their exploding Spinal Tap drummers* at quarterback, but drops were a constant issue, and yards after catch were minimal. Demarco Robinson had a 47-yard catch in the spring game, which is fine, but consider me a skeptic.

A Neal Brown offense has almost no choice but to be pretty efficient, but I don't see much explosiveness here.

* I love that reference, but I also make it too much. This will be the only time I use it in the 2013 previews. Hold me to that. I already regret not being able to use it to describe Maryland quarterbacks, Iowa running backs, or Missouri offensive linemen.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.6	3.05	2.81	38.9%	58.6%	18.5%	94.7	5.9%	7.0%
Rank	24	50	98	65	105	54	67	85	73

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Larry Warford	RG				37 career starts; 2012 2nd All-SEC
Matt Smith	C				34 career starts
Darrian Miller	LT	6'5, 288	Jr.	*** (5.7)	14 career starts
Kevin Mitchell	RT	6'6, 296	Sr.	** (5.4)	13 career starts
Zach West	LG	6'4, 312	So.	*** (5.7)	12 career starts
Trevino Woods	RT
Teven Eatmon-Nared	LG	6'7, 339	Jr.	** (5.4)
Max Godby	C	6'4, 291	Jr.	NR
John Gruenschlaeger	RG	6'11, 340	So.	NR
Jordan Swindle	LT	6'7, 299	So.	*** (5.5)
Zach Myers	C	6'3, 289	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Jordan Watson	OG	6'4, 322	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Kyle Meadows	OL	6'5, 270	Fr.	*** (5.7)

6. Hope on the line

Perhaps the most frustrating part of Kentucky's offensive performance in 2012 was that it wasted a strong performance from an enormous line. Larry Warford earned second-team all-conference honors and a third-round selection by the Detroit Lions, and Kentucky ranked in the Adj. Line Yards top 25 (that their raw numbers were so bad and their schedule-adjusted numbers were so good is a nice reminder that the Wildcats play in the SEC). Warford and three-year starting center Matt Smith are gone, but there is hope here.

Okay, I don't actually know about hope here. But I do know about size. Players like Teven Eatmon-Nared, John Gruenschlaeger, and Jordan Swindle (average size among them: 6'8, 326) could play a role in the rotation. And hey, if your talent and experience are questionable, you might as well throw out some big bodies in the hopes that it takes defenders longer to run around them. And my goodness, do I want to see a 6'11 guard in action.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	60	75	109	55
RUSHING	63	87	112	62
PASSING	58	67	97	57
Standard Downs		84	117	58
Passing Downs		69	84	55
Redzone		104	119	85

Q1 Rk	99	1st Down Rk	46
Q2 Rk	74	2nd Down Rk	38
Q3 Rk	37	3rd Down Rk	120
Q4 Rk	17

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.2	3.29	3.17	41.0%	75.8%	15.2%	107.0	6.0%	7.6%
Rank	102	110	53	87	113	111	51	25	45

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Collins Ukwu	DE				11	31.0	4.5%	6	4	0	1	2	0
Donte Rumph	DT	6'3, 323	Sr.	*** (5.6)	11	26.0	3.8%	6	4	0	0	1	0
Mister Cobble	DT	6'0, 340	Sr.	** (5.4)	10	22.5	3.3%	3	2	0	0	0	0
Taylor Wyndham	DE				12	21.5	3.2%	6	2	0	2	0	1
Tristian Johnson	DT	6'1, 277	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	17.0	2.5%	2.5	1.5	0	2	0	1
Mike Douglas	DT	6'4, 269	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	9.5	1.4%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Farrington Huguenin	DE	6'4, 269	So.	** (5.4)	12	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	1	1
Alvin Davis, Jr.	DE	6'4, 269	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	4.5	0.7%	1	1	0	1	0	0
TraVaughn Paschal	DE	6'4, 250	Jr.	NR	7	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Christian Coleman	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	*** (5.5)	8	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Thomas Chapman	DT	6'4, 309	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Langston Newton	DE	6'4, 271	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Za'Darius Smith	DE	6'6, 250	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Jason Hatcher	DE	6'3, 250	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Alvonte Bell	DE	6'5, 255	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Jacob Hyde	DT	6'2, 330	Fr.	*** (5.6)

7. Hello, reinforcements

The SEC is known for, among other things, ridiculous defensive lines. In terms of Adj. Line Yards, the conference claimed seven of the top 16 spots in the rankings -- Alabama was No. 3, LSU No. 5, Florida No. 7, Missouri No. 9, Ole Miss No. 10, Texas A&M No. 11, Arkansas No. 16.

Kentucky, on the other hand, was awful up front. The Wildcats could rush the passer to a decent degree, but they got pushed around terribly against the run. Their No. 102 ranking in Adj. Line Yards was easily the worst in the SEC and was the sixth-worst among all BCS conference teams (fourth-worst among BCS teams not in the Big East).

Mark Stoops did as much as he could to rectify this deficiency in his first recruiting class. Two of his three four-star signees were defensive linemen, and another two were mid- to high-three stars. Add in a pair of interesting redshirt freshmen, and you've got some potential reinforcements for a line that needed a lot of it. Both starting ends must be replaced, but it is difficult to imagine some combination of newcomer Za'Darius Smith (who had a lovely spring), redshirt freshman Langston Newton and a freshman or two not combining to at least match the six sacks that Collins Ukwu and Taylor Wyndham managed. And while tackles Donte Rumph and Mister Cobble are both wonderfully named and enormous, they could get some help from players like Thomas Chapman.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Avery Williamson	MLB	6'1, 241	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	102.5	15.0%	4.5	3	1	4	2	1
Alvin Dupree	WLB	6'4, 254	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	72.5	10.6%	12.5	6.5	0	1	0	0
Miles Simpson	OLB	6'2, 228	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	56.5	8.3%	1.5	1	0	4	0	1
Khalid Henderson	WLB	6'1, 224	So.	*** (5.5)	12	20.0	2.9%	0	0	0	1	0	1
Pancho Thomas	MLB	6'0, 225	So.	*** (5.6)	10	10.0	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Forrest	OLB	6'3, 241	So.	*** (5.6)	9	9.5	1.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kory Brown	OLB	6'0, 205	Jr.	*** (5.5)	8	7.5	1.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Malcom McDuffen	WLB	6'3, 220	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Tyler Brause	MLB	6'4, 240	Jr.	*** (5.5)	9	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Demarius Rancifer	LB	6'2, 216	So.	*** (5.6)	11	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Martavius Neloms	S				10	42.0	6.2%	1	0	1	0	2	0
Cartier Rice	CB				11	35.0	5.1%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Ashely Lowery	S	6'1, 219	Jr.	*** (5.6)	8	35.0	5.1%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Fred Tiller	CB	6'0, 170	So.	*** (5.6)	11	23.5	3.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Cody Quinn	CB	5'10, 177	So.	*** (5.5)	11	23.0	3.4%	0	0	0	5	0	0
J.D. Harmon	CB	6'2, 191	So.	NR	12	20.5	3.0%	0	0	2	4	0	0
Mikie Benton	S				10	17.5	2.6%	3	0	0	0	1	0
Daron Blaylock	S	6'1, 213	So.	*** (5.5)	11	11.5	1.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Zack Blaylock	S	6'0, 191	So.	*** (5.7)	11	11.5	1.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dakotah Tyler	S	5'11, 207	Sr.	*** (5.5)	5	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Eric Dixon	S	5'11, 189	Jr.	*** (5.6)	8	4.0	0.6%	1	1	0	0	1	0
Nate Willis	DB	6'0, 180	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Marcus McWilson	S	6'0, 210	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Blake McCain	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Jaleel Hytchye	CB	5'10, 175	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. Yesterday's extreme youth is tomorrow's vast experience

That's the mantra for the back seven of Kentucky's defense. Last year, sophomores like Alvin Dupree, Miles Simpson, and Ashely Lowery and freshmen like Fred Tiller, Cody Quinn, J.D. Harmon, Khalid Henderson, and Pancho Thomas all got extensive playing time. If you're going to play that many ultra-young players, they better be five-star guys if you want to survive (especially if you have a porous line).

These weren't, but while this unit might still struggle quite a bit in 2013, all of these players will still have eligibility left in 2014, as will quite a few interesting incoming freshmen.

Alvin Dupree. John Sommers, Getty.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Landon Foster	6'1, 206	So.	61	42.9	3	14	13	44.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Joe Mansour	6'2, 188	Sr.	28	59.0	12	42.9%
Craig McIntosh			13	62.8	3	23.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Craig McIntosh			27-27	4-5	80.0%	4-10	40.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
DeMarcus Sweat	KR	6'1, 196	So.	25	20.5	0
Raymond Sanders III	KR	5'8, 199	Sr.	10	22.3	0
Daryl Collins	KR	5'11, 205	So.	6	22.2	0
Demarco Robinson	PR	5'10, 159	Jr.	18	6.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	77
Net Punting	19
Net Kickoffs	66
Touchback Pct	59
Field Goal Pct	119
Kick Returns Avg	72
Punt Returns Avg	79

9. Landon Foster is a weapon

While the Kentucky offense will almost certainly improve, let's just say that punter Landon Foster, who boomed Kentucky into the Net Punting top 20 as a freshman, is still going to get pretty considerable use. He's pretty damn good, so that might not necessarily be a bad thing. If the Kentucky offense can at least score a few more first downs and fewer three-and-outs, that and Foster should combine to help the Wildcats win the field position advantage more often than they did in 2012. And hey man, punters are people, too ...

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	vs. Western Kentucky	94
7-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	106
14-Sep	Louisville	33
28-Sep	Florida	4
5-Oct	at South Carolina	19
12-Oct	Alabama	1
26-Oct	at Mississippi State	51
2-Nov	Alabama State	NR
9-Nov	Missouri	39
16-Nov	at Vanderbilt	49
23-Nov	at Georgia	9
30-Nov	Tennessee	44

Five-Year F/+ Rk	82
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	41
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / +1.6
TO Luck/Game	-1.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+5.0

10. Building for 2014

Let's put it this way: last year in the F/+ rankings, Kentucky ranked 54 spots behind anybody else in the SEC East. Of the 842 FBS teams who have played since 2006, only 28 of them improved by more than 50 spots in one year. Granted, almost half of FBS doesn't have a chance to improve by 50 spots in a given year. But if you remove the Top 50 from consideration, that still means that only about 5.6 percent of teams ranked 51st or worst in a given year improve by 50 spots (or in Kentucky's case, catch up to the rest of the division).

So the odds are very good that Kentucky will be the worst team in the East again, perhaps by a considerable margin. That the Wildcats drew Alabama from the West and host Louisville (which isn't projected nearly as high as conventional wisdom would suggest, but is still probably much better than Kentucky) makes this a rather brutal schedule, one that likely won't produce six wins.

When you fall apart to this degree, a quick fix almost certainly isn't going to happen. It will probably be another painful season in Lexington, but the combination of experience and improved recruiting might ensure that Kentucky becomes interesting as early as 2014.

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