2013 Auburn football's 10 things to know: The right hire and a little bit of patience

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. "No."

At this year's Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, I went out to dinner with some fellow writers and bloggers one night. Among them was a basketball blogger with whom I had this exchange once he found out what I do for a living.

Him: So you're a college football guy? I have a friend who's a big Auburn fan. How do you think they'll do this year?

Me: No.

That was the most succinct way I could think to put it. No, not this year.

In hiring Gus Malzahn to replace his former boss Gene Chizik, Auburn found a way to both bring in a good, relatively proven coach with tactical prowess and a high ceiling for recruiting. The school also found a pretty clear way to acknowledge where things went awry.

When virtually the entire starting offense departed after 2010, however, head coach Gene Chizik seemed to choose the stars over the system. He allegedly reined in offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn a bit and, a year later, replaced him altogether with more of a pro-style coordinator.

According to the narrative, after all, you can draw more blue-chippers with a "pro-style" system. Strong recruiting continued apace; Auburn's 2011 class ranked seventh according to Rivals.com, its 2012 class ranked 10th, and its 2013 class currently ranks 10th despite some defections following Chizik's firing. But the identity vanished. Auburn seemingly had no idea what it wanted to be offensively.

Out of grave necessity, Auburn was a run-first, run-second team last season. This was the case mostly because the Tigers couldn't pass to save their collective lives. The personnel wasn't meant for a pro-style attack (whatever that term really even means at this point), and the complete and total lack of experience didn't help.

And by the end of 2012, just two years removed from a national title, with a defense that was only average and an offense that fell apart the moment it fell behind schedule, Auburn ranked 105th in the F/+ rankings. That's one spot behind 1-11 Kansas, two behind 2-11 UNLV, and only one spot ahead of 2-10 Army. Auburn was bad last season, so bad, in fact, that it is difficult for me to believe that Malzahn -- who seems like a wonderful hire and has strong long-term prospects -- will be able to engineer any sort of major turnaround in just one season.

What I said about Kentucky on Monday applies here, too. In the F/+ rankings, Auburn ranked 43 spots below Mississippi State and 45 below Arkansas. Even if Malzahn makes all of the right moves in his first year, asking him to make up more ground than that seems a bit unfair.

2. One hell of an outlier

If you completely remove 2010 from the chart above, you get a pretty clearly defined, seven-year downward trend. That Auburn not only bucked its trend and played at an elite level in 2010, but won a national title, is still just the damnedest thing.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 105
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	vs. Clemson	19-26	L	29.0 - 27.1	W
8-Sep	at Mississippi State	10-28	L	14.5 - 32.2	L
15-Sep	UL-Monroe	31-28	W	36.3 - 19.9	W
22-Sep	LSU	10-12	L	18.7 - 22.9	L
6-Oct	Arkansas	7-24	L	20.2 - 29.7	L
13-Oct	at Ole Miss	20-41	L	22.3 - 35.9	L
20-Oct	at Vanderbilt	13-17	L	22.4 - 27.3	L
27-Oct	Texas A&M	21-63	L	36.0 - 40.5	L
3-Nov	New Mexico State	42-7	W	33.8 - 23.9	W
10-Nov	Georgia	0-38	L	18.6 - 31.8	L
17-Nov	Alabama A&M	51-7	W	30.5 - 35.8	L
24-Nov	at Alabama	0-49	L	14.5 - 32.8	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	18.7	114	28.3	66
Adj. Points Per Game	24.7	95	30.0	81

3. The (less-un)friendly confines

I would really like to blame most of Gene Chizik's failures on strange schematic decision-making and poor development. But a large portion of Auburn's problem in 2012 was pure youth. There was just too much of it to succeed, and it was particularly evident in Auburn's home-road splits. It stands to reason that more experienced teams are able to avoid terrible drop-offs on the road. Auburn could not.

Adj. Points Per Game (at home/neutral): Opponent 29.0, Auburn 27.9 (minus-1.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (on the road): Opponent 32.1, Auburn 18.4 (minus-13.7)

Now, Auburn was still mediocre at best, even at home. A negative average margin in Adj. Points means you were worse than an average team. But Auburn was also one of the worst teams in the country on the road. That points to poor experience and poor leadership, issues that could begin to naturally rectify themselves in 2013.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	118	81	77	80
RUSHING	80	18	21	20
PASSING	116	120	124	115
Standard Downs		59	60	58
Passing Downs		99	92	103
Redzone		76	42	97

Q1 Rk	53	1st Down Rk	59
Q2 Rk	41	2nd Down Rk	45
Q3 Rk	41	3rd Down Rk	112
Q4 Rk	122

4. Dead last

Auburn had a truly strong running game in 2012, one that Malzahn and offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee, his O.C. at Arkansas State last year, should be able to fully utilize. The Tigers were in the top 25 in both Rushing Success Rate+ and Rushing PPP+, with a solid line blocking for good backs. Onterio McCalebb, the most explosive back of the bunch, is gone, but junior Tre Mason and incoming junior college transfer Cameron Artis-Payne should find a ton of success in Malzahn's system this season. SB Nation's research and analytics intern, Chris A. Brown, attended Auburn's ridiculously well-attended spring game and was knocked out by Artis-Payne's play. He said the offense had a tremendous amount of explosiveness overall; the change in pace and potential was evident.

Oh, but that passing game. Auburn ranked 124th -- dead last in FBS -- in Passing Success Rate+ in 2012. Dead last! Worse than UMass, worse than New Mexico State, worse than Idaho. Dead last. Auburn quarterbacks completed 50 of 81 passes for 789 yards to Emory Blake in 2012 (9.7 per pass), and 97 of 175 for 1,090 yards (6.2 per pass) to everybody else. And that doesn't even factor into the equation an incredibly bad sack rate. Auburn was 123rd, second-worst in FBS, in Adj. Sack Rate. Clint Moseley and Kiehl Frazier took 29 sacks in just 205 pass attempts. The only thing that kept Auburn under 50 sacks for the year was the simple fact that they didn't pass much.

Now, it does bear mentioning that most of the main contributors for Auburn's offense in 2012 were recruited for Malzahn's attack but were stuck in an attempted pro-style mish-mash under a new offensive coordinator. Malzahn's return alone could result in higher comfort and effectiveness. But again, when you are this bad in a given year, it is difficult to imagine a complete, 180-degree turnaround in one offseason. It is possible, but not likely, especially when the only effective receiver (Blake) has now graduated, and the four-year safety valve (Philip Lutzenkirchen) has too.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Kiehl Frazier	6'2, 234	Jr.	**** (5.9)	62	116	753	53.4%	2	8	18	13.4%	4.8
Jonathan Wallace	6'2, 209	So.	*** (5.6)	46	80	720	57.5%	4	4	7	8.0%	7.9
Clint Moseley				38	60	373	63.3%	1	3	11	15.5%	4.1
Nick Marshall	6'2, 190	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Jeremy Johnson	6'6, 215	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Jason Smith	6'1, 180	Fr.	**** (5.8)

5. Getting somewhere with Wallace

Late in the season, during the Texas A&M game, Chizik turned to true freshman Jonathan Wallace in a desperate attempt to get something going on offense. While his overall numbers were padded by starts against New Mexico State and Alabama A&M (against those two teams, he was 19-for-34 for 335 yards, two scores, and an interception), and while his sack and interception rates were still too high, he produced at a level that neither Frazier nor Moseley could match.

Adj. Points Per Game (with Jonathan Wallace): Opponent 33.0, Auburn 26.7 (minus-7.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (with Frazier/Moseley): Opponent 27.8, Auburn 23.3 (minus-4.5)

Even accounting for opponent, Auburn's offense was better in Wallace's hands than in anybody else's. Of course, he didn't finish the spring as the clear-cut starter. Frazier, a highly touted recruit who came to Auburn to run Malzahn's offense in 2011 and serve as Cam Newton's successor, is back in his run-pass comfort zone; he has not shown anything even slightly resembling four-star potential in his first two years on the Plains (not even on the ground), but whatever his ceiling is, he is more likely to reach it under Malzahn.

Spring practice ended in what Malzahn called a "dead heat" between the two, and junior college transfer Nick Marshall, an explosive, pick-prone junior college quarterback and former Georgia defensive back, will enter the race this summer.

Jonathan Wallace. John David Mercer, USA Today.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Tre Mason	RB	5'10, 196	Jr.	**** (5.8)	171	1,002	5.9	5.3	8	+14.9
Onterio McCalebb	RB				94	570	6.1	5.9	6	+10.6
Jonathan Wallace	QB	6'2, 209	So.	*** (5.6)	44	186	4.2	2.5	0	-1.9
Mike Blakely	RB				32	151	4.7	3.9	0	-1.2
Kiehl Frazier	QB	6'2, 234	Jr.	**** (5.9)	24	74	3.1	2.0	0	-3.8
Jay Prosch	HB	6'0, 247	Sr.	** (5.2)	12	38	3.2	0.5	2	-2.1
Corey Grant	RB	5'11, 201	Jr.	**** (5.8)	9	29	3.2	1.2	0	-2.4
Clint Moseley	QB				6	11	1.8	2.9	0	-1.3
Cameron Artis-Payne	RB	5'11, 208	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Johnathan "Ruby" Ford	RB	5'11, 190	Fr.	**** (5.8)

6. Carving out yards on the ground

Again, the passing game was the problem in 2012. The ground game had loads of potential, and if Malzahn can figure out ways to maneuver through passing downs without complete disasters, the run can get even better. Chris A. Brown also told me that all indications are for Johnathan Ford to become a McCalebb-style back, "running the sweeps and catching screens out of the backfield."

If Ford is able to make an immediate contribution -- never a given for a true freshman -- then that would give Auburn as strong a backfield as you'll find in the SEC, at least outside of Tuscaloosa and Athens. Mason, Artis-Payne, Ford, the winner of the QB derby, and perhaps Corey Grant will give Auburn depth and high-end potential. All the Tigers need is general competence in the passing game, but there's no guarantee they'll get it.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Emory Blake	WR				81	50	789	61.7%	9.7	34.0%	54.3%	9.7	100.6
Onterio McCalebb	RB				29	18	132	62.1%	4.6	12.2%	62.1%	4.6	16.8
Philip Lutzenkirchen	HB				25	15	139	60.0%	5.6	10.5%	56.0%	5.6	17.7
Quan Bray	SLOT	5'10, 183	Jr.	**** (5.8)	19	14	94	73.7%	4.9	8.0%	52.6%	5.1	12.0
Sammie Coates	WR-X	6'2, 201	So.	*** (5.7)	18	6	114	33.3%	6.3	7.6%	66.7%	6.5	14.5
Trovon Reed	WR-F	6'0, 190	Jr.	**** (6.0)	16	9	122	56.3%	7.6	6.7%	31.3%	12.4	15.6
C.J. Uzomah	TE	6'4, 253	Jr.	*** (5.7)	11	7	136	63.6%	12.4	4.6%	63.6%	12.0	17.3
Travante Stallworth	WR				11	6	65	54.5%	5.9	4.6%	63.6%	5.7	8.3
Tre Mason	RB	5'10, 196	Jr.	**** (5.8)	10	7	86	70.0%	8.6	4.2%	80.0%	6.5	11.0
Jay Prosch	HB	6'0, 247	Sr.	** (5.2)	6	5	19	83.3%	3.2	2.5%	50.0%	2.8	2.4
Ricardo Louis	WR-F	6'2, 217	So.	**** (5.8)	4	3	36	75.0%	9.0	1.7%	50.0%	9.7	4.6
DeAngelo Benton	WR				3	3	84	100.0%	28.0	1.3%	100.0%	16.9	10.7
Ricky Parks	HB	6'4, 257	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Melvin Ray	TE	6'3, 218	So.	**** (5.9)
Earnest Robinson	WR	6'3, 200	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Tony Stephens	WR	6'3, 175	Fr.	**** (5.9)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.1	2.87	2.66	43.4%	74.1%	20.9%	49.1	10.9%	15.0%
Rank	35	78	105	18	30	95	123	123	122

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
John Sullen	LG				24 career starts
Reese Dismukes	C	6'3, 290	Jr.	**** (5.9)	23 career starts
Chad Slade	RG	6'5, 308	Jr.	*** (5.5)	22 career starts
Greg Robinson	LT	6'5, 314	So.	**** (5.8)	11 career starts
Patrick Miller	RT	6'7, 283	So.	**** (5.8)	9 career starts
Avery Young	RT	6'6, 314	So.	**** (5.9)	3 career starts
Tunde Fariyike	C	6'2, 307	Jr.	** (5.3)	2 career starts
Christian Westerman	LG				1 career start
Shon Coleman	LT	6'6, 294	RSFr.	***** (6.1)
Alex Kozan	LG	6'4, 292	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Jordan Diamond	RG	6'6, 314	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Shane Callahan	OL	6'6, 290	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Devonte Danzey	LG	6'4, 284	So.	*** (5.7)
Deon Mix	OL	6'4, 305	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	81	57	80	51
RUSHING	100	80	63	93
PASSING	48	45	94	25
Standard Downs		77	97	67
Passing Downs		29	31	32
Redzone		34	42	28

Q1 Rk	72	1st Down Rk	76
Q2 Rk	55	2nd Down Rk	45
Q3 Rk	61	3rd Down Rk	42
Q4 Rk	24

7. The defense wasn't the problem, but…

...it wasn't really a strength, either. While offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler was unable to find the right buttons to push on offense, defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder was at least able to hold the fort with a terribly inexperienced D. Auburn prevented big plays in the passing game and was at least above average on passing downs and in the red zone, but it was difficult to overcome general deficiencies in the run defense. Auburn couldn't make many plays in the backfield and couldn't force nearly enough passing downs overall.

To the extent that this was an experience problem, well, it should no longer be a problem in 2013. Eight of the top nine defensive linemen, six of the top eight linebackers, and eight of the top nine defensive backs all return this fall. There is a strong upperclassman presence, especially at the front and back of the defense, and new coordinator Ellis Johnson should find plenty of ways to be aggressive.

Johnson, one of college football's more successful defensive coordinators (who, yes, bombed as a head coach at Southern Miss last year), has a track record for maximizing a D's athleticism and showing some tactical creativity and flexibility. Between seasoned veterans and extremely high-upside youngsters, he's got some toys in the toy box this year.

It is not a given that he'll find the right mix, of course, but the odds are at least decent.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.1	3.14	3.56	40.1%	68.9%	16.8%	91.4	4.8%	6.9%
Rank	78	93	96	74	74	96	78	58	54

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dee Ford	DE	6'2, 238	Sr.	*** (5.6)	11	28.5	4.3%	6.5	6	0	1	1	0
Corey Lemonier	DE				12	26.0	3.9%	5.5	5.5	0	1	1	1
Angelo Blackson	DT	6'4, 312	Jr.	*** (5.7)	12	19.0	2.9%	7	1	0	2	2	1
Nosa Eguae	DE	6'3, 268	Sr.	*** (5.7)	12	18.5	2.8%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Gabe Wright	DT	6'3, 300	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12	15.5	2.3%	4.5	1	0	2	0	0
Kenneth Carter	DE	6'4, 287	Sr.	**** (5.8)	12	12.5	1.9%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jeffrey Whitaker	DT	6'4, 307	Sr.	**** (5.9)	9	8.5	1.3%	1	0.5	0	0	0	1
Craig Sanders	DE	6'4, 242	Sr.	**** (5.8)	9	7.5	1.1%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Keymiya Harrell	DE	6'4, 262	So.	*** (5.7)	4	2.0	0.3%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Tyler Nero	DL	6'2, 266	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Ben Bradley	DT	6'1, 310	So.	**** (5.9)
Montravius Adams	DT	6'3, 290	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Carl Lawson	DE	6'2, 253	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Elijah Daniel	DE	6'3, 249	Fr.	**** (5.9)

8. Bringing in the reinforcements

Most of the aforementioned precocious youth will line up in the front four. Five-star freshmen Montravius Adams and Carl Lawson, junior college blue-chipper Ben Bradley, and four-star freshman Elijah Daniel join a rotation that probably needs them. End Dee Ford was a strong pass rusher, and tackle Angelo Blackson was basically the line's only play-maker against the run, but depth was an issue in 2013.

Despite the loss of end Corey Lemonier, the depth could improve dramatically this fall. We'll see how long it takes for the new pieces to get established -- even South Carolina's all-world recruit/end Jadeveon Clowney took a while to find consistency -- but it's safe to say the upside is higher now than it was 12 months ago. And it will possibly be even higher 12 months from now. When you barely ranked in the top 80 in either Adj. Line Yards or Adj. Sack Rate, you should probably be happy with improvement even just into the Top 50-60. Aim higher in 2014, but stay conservative this time around.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Daren Bates	WILL				12	66.5	10.0%	5.5	2	1	3	0	2
Jake Holland	MLB	6'1, 243	Sr.	**** (5.8)	11	52.5	7.9%	3	0	0	2	0	0
Cassanova McKinzy	WILL	6'3, 245	So.	**** (5.8)	8	18.0	2.7%	0.5	0	0	0	1	1
Jonathan Evans	LB				12	16.5	2.5%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Garrett	STAR	6'1, 214	Jr.	*** (5.6)	6	9.0	1.4%	0.5	0	0	0	1	0
LaDarius Owens	MLB	6'2, 248	Jr.	**** (5.9)	11	8.5	1.3%	3	0	0	0	0	0
Kris Frost	MLB	6'2, 231	So.	***** (6.1)	9	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Robenson Therezie	STAR	5'9, 202	Jr.	**** (5.8)	10	3.0	0.5%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Swain	LB	6'2, 235	So.	*** (5.7)
Kenny Flowers	LB	6'2, 225	So.	*** (5.6)
JaViere Mitchell	WILL	6'2, 211	RSFr.	**** (5.8)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Demetruce McNeal	BS	6'2, 194	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	71.5	10.8%	7	1	0	4	1	1
Jermaine Whitehead	FS	5'11, 198	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12	63.0	9.5%	4	1	0	5	0	1
Jonathon Mincy	CB	5'10, 191	Jr.	*** (5.7)	12	49.0	7.4%	4	1	0	4	1	0
Chris Davis	CB	5'11, 198	Sr.	*** (5.5)	9	35.5	5.4%	1.5	0	0	3	0	0
Joshua Holsey	BS	5'11, 195	So.	**** (5.8)	11	26.0	3.9%	2	0	0	6	0	0
Ryan Smith	FS	6'2, 197	Sr.	*** (5.5)	4	21.5	3.2%	0.5	0	0	0	0	1
T'Sharvan Bell	CB				12	20.0	3.0%	0	0	0	5	0	1
Trent Fisher	BS	6'1, 200	Jr.	NR	11	13.5	2.0%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	CB	5'10, 172	So.	*** (5.7)	10	10.5	1.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Ryan White	CB	5'11, 196	Sr.	*** (5.5)	9	9.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Davis	BS	6'1, 194	RSFr.	*** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Steven Clark	6'5, 232	Sr.	70	39.8	4	37	15	74.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Cody Parkey	6'0, 186	Sr.	48	65.1	33	68.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cody Parkey	6'0, 186	Sr.	27-27	8-8	100.0%	3-6	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Onterio McCalebb	KR			23	22.7	1
Quan Bray	KR	5'10, 183	Jr.	6	20.2	0
Tre Mason	KR	5'10, 196	Jr.	3	26.3	0
Quan Bray	PR	5'10, 183	Jr.	16	8.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	21
Net Punting	32
Net Kickoffs	1
Touchback Pct	3
Field Goal Pct	33
Kick Returns Avg	48
Punt Returns Avg	59

9. Cody Parkey is awesome

For all of Auburn's deficiencies last year, special teams was not one of them. The return game was decent (and should remain so despite the loss of Onterio McCalebb), the punting game was strong, and kicker/kickoffs guy Cody Parkey was great. He was perfect on all kicks inside of 40 yards, and he booted touchbacks more than two-thirds of the time on kickoffs. Granted, Auburn didn't have nearly enough reasons to kick off (or even kick field goals) in 2012, but Auburn should be stout in the field position battle in 2013, especially if its offense can improve by at least a little bit.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Washington State	97
7-Sep	Arkansas State	64
14-Sep	Mississippi State	51
21-Sep	at LSU	3
5-Oct	Ole Miss	29
12-Oct	Western Carolina	NR
19-Oct	at Texas A&M	13
26-Oct	Florida Atlantic	116
2-Nov	at Arkansas	32
9-Nov	at Tennessee	44
16-Nov	Georgia	9
30-Nov	Alabama	1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	41
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	6
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-12 / -5.3
TO Luck/Game	-2.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (6, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+1.5

10. Year Zero

Auburn fans aren't necessarily known for their extreme patience, but they should probably try to take a lot of deep breaths this fall.

Like Kentucky, the Tigers are likely starting from too far back to make up serious ground in 2013, but the schedule is as favorable as it gets in the SEC. That will help. Auburn begins with three home games versus teams projected worse than 50th and welcomes Western Carolina and Florida Atlantic to town in October. Win those five games, and the Tigers would need only one more win -- Ole Miss at home? Tennessee or Arkansas on the road? -- to secure bowl eligibility. I would set the bar closer to five wins, but considering how far Auburn fell in 2012, and how consistently they've been heading downhill through the years (spectacular outlier aside), even that would represent demonstrable progress.

The Gus Malzahn hire really does make sense in so many ways. He brings an identity to an offense that needs one, and while he has only been a head coach for one season, he pushed a lot of the right buttons in that one year at Arkansas State. He is a known entity in the SEC, he will keep recruiting going awfully strong, and even if he doesn't reach a bowl in his first season, he should have this team deep, experienced, competitive and fun pretty quickly.

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