College Football

2013 Mississippi State football's 10 things to know: If you're not moving forward...

Dan Mullen has taken Mississippi State to three straight bowls, something that hadn't happened since the 1990s (and, before that, hadn't happened at all). But his team has regressed for two straight years; can a seasoned squad begin to turn things back around against a schedule that isn't quite as back-loaded? For more Bulldogs, visit Mississippi State site For Whom the Cowbell Tolls.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC May 22, 2013, 9:52am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. The "Settling for mediocrity!" stage

It happens to every successful coach at some point. Hell, it probably happened to Nick Saban when Alabama was only going 10-3 in 2010. You raise the bar for a given program higher than it has been for a while, but people get a little bit impatient when you fail to continue raising it. You could be a couple of 7-6 seasons away from full-fledged Glen Mason Territory.

Back in my blogger infancy, i coined a term called Glen Mason Territory to describe when a coach achieves at a higher-than-normal level at a given school (probably a second-tier BCS program that hadn't won in a while before he showed up) but cannot ever break through to the next level; he keeps making bowl games and winning, say, 6-8 games a year, but fans begin to get impatient. The crazies begin to start yelling things like "settling for mediocrity!" on talk radio and message boards, season ticket sales begin to fade, and even the rational fans in the base (the SB Nation readers, naturally) begin to start wondering if a change is needed.

Now, Dan Mullen is not there yet, not by any stretch of the imagination.

The fifth-year Mississippi State head coach inherited a hot mess of a program from Sylvester Croom (on offense, at least), surged to 9-4, finished 15th in the AP Poll in 2010 (30th in the F/+ rankings), and ended the Rich Rodriguez era at Michigan with a 52-14 massacre of the Wolverines in the Gator Bowl. The Bulldogs began the next season ranked 20th and got as high as 16th in September but finished just 7-6 (thanks in part to a schedule that featured built-in wins over Memphis, UAB, UT-Martin, and Ole Miss) and fell to 49th in the F/+ rankings. In 2012, after a schedule-aided 7-0 start -- the wins: Jackson State, the worst Auburn team in decades, Troy (barely), South Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Middle Tennessee -- the Bulldogs rose to 13th in the polls despite not actually being very good. And then reality struck: MSU lost five of six and not only finished 8-5 but ranked just 62nd in F/+, 12th in the conference.

In terms of location (Starkville is lovely and fun, but it's small and in the middle of nowhere, even compared to other middle-of-nowhere SEC towns), history (MSU is the only program in its division to not own a national title), the size of the fanbase, etc., this proud program faces a lot of adversity in comparison to its SEC West rivals.

In the last 108 years, the Bulldogs have won eight games or more in a season just 17 times. So the fact that Mullen has pulled off that feat twice in three years means something. But don't tell me that local radio and old-school, local letters-to-the-editor haven't featured the phrase "settling for mediocrity" in recent months. Hell, I heard it in Oklahoma City in 1999 regarding Bob Stoops and Oklahoma, 12 months before he won a national title. You know State fans are probably getting a little bit impatient with the backslide in quality, whether they should or not. It doesn't take long.

In 2013, Mississippi State won't be done any favors by the schedule. There is still cake on the schedule (Alcorn State, Troy, Kentucky, and no, I'm not including Bowling Green, because I think the Falcons will actually be pretty damn good this year), but by the first week in October, the Bulldogs will have already faced two potential Top 10 teams in Oklahoma State and LSU.

Will this experienced squad be ready for the challenge?

More: This is No. 56 in Bill Connelly's team preview countdown. Catch up on the rest here.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 \| Adj. Record: 9-4 \| Final F/+ Rk: 62
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Jackson State	56-9	W	25.6 - 30.5	L
8-Sep	Auburn	28-10	W	31.0 - 16.5	W
15-Sep	at Troy	30-24	W	30.5 - 32.7	L
22-Sep	South Alabama	30-10	W	29.6 - 29.6	W
6-Oct	at Kentucky	27-14	W	28.2 - 19.1	W
13-Oct	Tennessee	41-31	W	27.4 - 27.5	L
20-Oct	Middle Tennessee	45-3	W	38.6 - 14.8	W
27-Oct	at Alabama	7-38	L	37.0 - 28.9	W
3-Nov	Texas A&M	13-38	L	32.9 - 31.8	W
10-Nov	at LSU	17-37	L	41.8 - 32.6	W
17-Nov	Arkansas	45-14	W	39.3 - 24.0	W
24-Nov	at Ole Miss	24-41	L	24.1 - 34.4	L
1-Jan	vs. Northwestern	20-34	L	24.2 - 21.2	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	29.5	60	23.3	34
Adj. Points Per Game	31.6	41	26.4	49

2. Getting better, but not better enough

A quick refresher: the goal of Adj. Score is to tell you how a team might have performed in a given week versus a perfectly average team with a perfectly average number of breaks and bounces. If you play well against a good team and lose, you'll probably get an "Adjusted Win." If you play poorly against a bad team and win, you'll probably get an "Adjusted Loss."

It is important to mention this because it's quite possible that Mississippi State was a much better team while losing games down the stretch than it was while starting undefeated.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): MSU 28.7, Opponent 26.0 (plus-2.7)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 7 games): MSU 34.0, Opponent 26.8 (plus-7.2)

Mississippi State improved a bit, but not enough to account for a backloaded schedule that featured teams with double-digit wins in the last six games.

Despite the aesthetic value (or lack thereof), the fact that MSU did improve late is a good sign heading into 2013; the Bulldogs were inexperienced in basically every unit other than the receiving corps and secondary. Those two units took some hits, but MSU will put a pretty experienced, veteran squad on the field this fall.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	80	46	46	47
RUSHING	84	47	39	46
PASSING	59	52	52	50
Standard Downs		64	55	67
Passing Downs		22	30	18
Redzone		41	61	30

Q1 Rk	70	1st Down Rk	28
Q2 Rk	36	2nd Down Rk	32
Q3 Rk	67	3rd Down Rk	93
Q4 Rk	4

3. For an offensive guy…

...Mullen has been slow to get MSU up to speed on the offensive end. He inherited a unit that ranked 105th in Off. F/+ in 2008 and has improved things, but only so much. MSU improved 61st in 2009 but has ranked only 68th, 80th, and 72nd in the last three years.

Mullen clearly established his tactical bona fides through the years under Urban Meyer, but he hasn't quite been able to put the right pieces in place in Starkville. He needs a mobile quarterback, and while Tyler Russell isn't immobile, he gains his rushing yards (on about two carries per game) via the element of surprise. Mullen needs an explosive running back who can scare the defense into over-compensating and open up the quarterback keeper on the zone read; and while LaDarius Perkins is steady and durable, he's not very explosive. Mullen needs a dynamic receiving corps of players who can operate well in space and turn every short pass into a game-breaking-punt-return type of situation; and while he had a game breaker in Chad Bumphis last year, Bumphis is gone now. Russell's top four targets are all gone, actually.

With a well-seasoned line (five players with starting experience, 95 career starts from a line that was Top 30 in both run blocking and pass protection) and a solid backfield -- one that might be deeper in 2013 if youngsters like Josh Robinson, Derrick Milton, or even fresh man Ashton Shumpert take enough of a leap to steal some of Perkins' carries -- the MSU run game should be stellar. But some young receivers will need to quickly establish a strong rapport with Russell to make sure that progression in the run game isn't met with equal regression in the passing game.

Tyler Russell. Butch Dill, Getty.

4. Better game plans?

You often see offenses or defenses that are much stronger in Q1 and Q3 than in Q2 and Q4, or vice versa. I tend to think of the good Q1/Q3 teams as having great game plans but lacking either in depth or the ability to adjust to opponent adjustments. Meanwhile, I think of Q2/Q4 teams as the opposite -- iffy game plans, solid adjustments or depth.

Now, this is admittedly a shaky, porous theory; but it's immediately what came to mind when I saw that State was below average in Q1 and Q3, good in Q2, and great in Q4. The Bulldogs dug themselves some holes on offense and weren't able to overcome them with later-half adjustments.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Tyler Russell

6'4, 220

Sr.

**** (5.8)

231

394

2,897

58.6%

4.4%

6.7

Dak Prescott

6'2, 230

So.

*** (5.6)

194

62.1%

3.3%

6.3

Cord Sandberg

6'3, 205

Fr.

**** (5.9)

5. A little bit of passing downs magic

Despite poor starts and mediocre standard downs execution, State was able to bail itself out at times with some quality on passing downs. Russell leaned on Bumphis and Perkins on second- or third-and-long, and it paid off. The run game should improve in 2013, which could, in theory, lead to fewer passing downs to begin with.

But who fills Bumphis' role as the big-play, bailout guy? Of the five returning players with any receiving experience whatsoever, only one averaged better than even 11 yards per catch (tight end Malcolm Johnson). Newcomers will play a vital role in this regard, and that's probably not a good thing on passing downs.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
LaDarius Perkins	RB	5'10, 195	Sr.	*** (5.6)	205	1,025	5.0	4.3	8	+4.7
Josh Robinson	RB	5'9, 225	So.	*** (5.6)	55	335	6.1	4.9	1	+5.7
Derrick Milton	RB	6'0, 210	So.	*** (5.5)	34	165	4.9	4.4	2	+0.1
Nick Griffin	RB	6'0, 225	Jr.	*** (5.7)	32	223	7.0	9.7	1	+7.0
Dak Prescott	QB	6'2, 230	So.	*** (5.6)	31	123	4.0	2.3	4	-0.2
Tyler Russell	QB	6'4, 220	Sr.	**** (5.8)	25	114	4.6	4.2	2	-0.5
Jameon Lewis	WR	5'9, 195	Jr.	*** (5.5)	5	21	4.2	3.6	0	-0.6
Kasey Akins	RB	5'6, 185	Sr.	NR	5	6	1.2	N/A	0	-2.3
Ashton Shumpert	RB	6'2, 205	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Chad Bumphis

922

66.7%

10.6

21.5%

58.6%

10.6

125.9

Chris Smith

581

59.3%

7.2

20.0%

65.4%

7.3

79.3

Arceto Clark

487

54.5%

7.4

16.3%

60.6%

7.4

66.5

Marcus Green

211

64.3%

7.5

6.9%

67.9%

7.2

28.8

Robert Johnson

6'1, 225

Jr.

**** (5.8)

164

60.7%

5.9

6.9%

64.3%

5.8

22.4

LaDarius Perkins

5'10, 195

Sr.

*** (5.6)

160

79.2%

6.7

5.9%

37.5%

5.9

21.8

Jameon Lewis

5'9, 195

Jr.

*** (5.5)

108

50.0%

5.4

4.9%

70.0%

5.9

14.7

Malcolm Johnson

6'2, 235

Jr.

*** (5.6)

154

56.3%

9.6

4.0%

50.0%

10.7

21.0

Brandon Heavens

123

58.3%

10.3

3.0%

58.3%

10.3

16.8

Joe Morrow

6'4, 210

So.

*** (5.7)

41.7%

4.4

3.0%

41.7%

4.0

7.2

Brandon Holloway

5'8, 165

RSFr.

*** (5.6)

Fred Brown

6'1, 180

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Jeremy Chappelle

6'3, 210

Jr.

*** (5.5)

Fred Ross

6'1, 200

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Artimus Samuel

6'2, 260

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Donald Gray, Jr.

5'9, 160

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	108.0	2.92	3.35	41.8%	60.5%	20.4%	141.4	4.4%	3.7%
Rank	30	73	54	33	97	88	29	58	21

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Gabe Jackson	LG	6'4, 335	Sr.	*** (5.5)	39 career starts; 2012 2nd All-SEC
Dillon Day	C	6'4, 300	Jr.	** (5.4)	22 career starts
Blaine Clausell	LT	6'7, 310	Jr.	** (5.4)	17 career starts
Tobias Smith	RG				13 career starts
Charles Siddoway	RT	6'7, 305	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13 career starts
Justin Malone	RG	6'7, 320	So.	*** (5.6)	4 career starts
Archie Muniz	RG	6'5, 300	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Ben Beckwith	LG	6'3, 305	Jr.	NR
Dylan Holley	C	6'3, 290	Sr.	*** (5.5)
Damien Robinson	RT	6'8, 335	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Justin Senior	LT	6'5, 300	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Jake Thomas	OL	6'6, 305	Fr.	*** (5.7)

6. Building around the line

LaDarius Perkins is basically a take-what's-given back, and a line that featured a quality left side gave him quite a bit. Mississippi State's line was boom-or-bust in a sense: It was not great in short-yardage situations and allowed quite a few negative plays on the ground, but it created a lot of downfield opportunities for Perkins, too. Experience could even out the flaws. I like this line quite a bit. It's big and has a track record.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	53	36	48	24
RUSHING	69	23	33	16
PASSING	46	52	61	50
Standard Downs		37	47	33
Passing Downs		33	67	27
Redzone		24	27	19

Q1 Rk	43	1st Down Rk	27
Q2 Rk	36	2nd Down Rk	67
Q3 Rk	41	3rd Down Rk	40
Q4 Rk	87

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.1	3.10	3.08	38.4%	73.5%	16.5%	69.2	3.8%	3.3%
Rank	55	90	47	57	98	98	105	90	114

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Denico Autry	DE	6'6, 265	Sr.	**** (6.0)	13	34.0	4.5%	9.5	4	1	1	2	0
Preston Smith	DE	6'6, 255	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	26.5	3.5%	5.5	4.5	0	0	1	1
Josh Boyd	DT				13	20.5	2.7%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	1
Dewayne Cherrington	DT				13	18.5	2.5%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Kaleb Eulls	DT	6'4, 290	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	17.5	2.3%	1	0	0	1	0	1
P.J. Jones	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	**** (5.8)	9	10.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Brown	DE	6'6, 260	So.	*** (5.6)	7	9.0	1.2%	1	0.5	0	2	0	0
Curtis Virges	DT	6'3, 315	Jr.	*** (5.7)	12	7.5	1.0%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Jones	DE				12	7.0	0.9%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Shane McCardell	DE				10	6.0	0.8%	2	2	0	0	0	0
Quay Evans	DT	6'3, 310	So.	**** (5.8)	10	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	1
Nick James	DT	6'5, 345	So.	*** (5.7)	8	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Corvell Harrison-Gay	DL	6'3, 265	Sr.	*** (5.5)	3	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. Jefferson	DE	6'3, 260	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Chris Jones	DE	6'5, 250	Fr.	***** (6.1)

7. Living up to the recruiting rankings

The MSU defense slipped quite a bit in 2012. The Bulldogs surged from 50th to 20th in Def. F/+ in 2010 and maintained form relatively well in 2011 (30th). But last fall, an ineffective front four struggled to generate a consistent pass rush and failed to do its linebackers many favors on the ground.

This was particularly frustrating considering MSU has had more success recruiting for the defensive line than for any other unit. Of the top seven returnees, four were four-star recruits once upon a time; those four players combined for 10.5 tackles for loss and four sacks, almost all of which came from Denico Autry. Three of the former four-stars will be counted on to not only replace outgoing Josh Boyd and Dwayne Cherrington, but improve on them.

If nothing else, a recruiting ranking tells you something about a player's ceiling; if that's true, then MSU tackles collectively have a pretty high one, as do the ends, with the addition of all-world freshman Chris Jones to the mix. If the line lives up to the rankings, this should be a potentially dominant unit. But it hasn't thus far. Maybe Jones changes that, but "Maybe [blue-chip freshman] changes everything" is a sentence that doesn't bear true as often as we hope.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cameron Lawrence	OLB				13	87.0	11.6%	10	4	2	4	2	2
Benardrick McKinney	MLB	6'5, 235	So.	*** (5.5)	13	73.5	9.8%	4.5	1	0	4	0	1
Deontae Skinner	OLB	6'2, 250	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	42.0	5.6%	5	0	0	3	1	0
Matthew Wells	OLB	6'2, 215	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	24.5	3.3%	2.5	1	1	2	1	0
Chris Hughes	OLB	6'1, 225	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	20.0	2.7%	1	0	0	0	0	2
Ferlando Bohanna	MLB	6'0, 225	Jr.	*** (5.7)	12	16.5	2.2%	0	0	0	1	0	2
Zach Jackson	OLB	6'2, 215	So.	*** (5.7)	13	12.0	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Christian Holmes	LB				13	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Richie Brown	LB	6'2, 235	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Beniquez Brown	LB	6'1, 225	RSFr.	*** (5.7)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nickoe Whitley	FS	6'1, 205	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	69.0	9.2%	3.5	0	3	0	1	0
Johnthan Banks	CB				13	49.5	6.6%	2	0	4	7	1	1
Darius Slay	CB				13	32.0	4.3%	1	0	5	6	0	1
Corey Broomfield	SS				13	30.5	4.1%	4	0.5	1	3	0	0
Jay Hughes	SS	5'11, 195	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	27.5	3.7%	3	0	0	2	0	0
Taveze Calhoun	CB	6'1, 180	So.	*** (5.7)	13	19.5	2.6%	0.5	0	0	0	1	0
Jamerson Love	CB	5'10, 175	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	19.0	2.5%	1	0	1	2	0	0
Dee Arrington	FS	6'1, 220	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	13.5	1.8%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Kendrick Market	SS	5'10, 190	So.	*** (5.7)	12	10.0	1.3%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Louis Watson	SS				12	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cedric Jiles	CB	5'10, 180	So.	*** (5.7)	3	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Will Redmond	CB	6'0, 190	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Justin Cox	CB	6'3, 195	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Jahmere Irvin-Sills	DB	5'10, 173	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. Wanted: new playmakers

In part because of the awful pass rush, MSU's pass defense graded out in rather mediocre fashion in 2012 despite the presence of two stellar cornerbacks. Darius Slay and Johnthan Banks were both picked in the second round of the NFL Draft, but MSU ranked just 52nd in Passing S&P+ (and 105th in Adj. Sack Rate).

Autry, Jones, etc., better improve the pass rush, because the secondary's going to need some help. Banks, Slay, and Corey Broomfield are gone, leaving behind some sophomores and juniors who didn't do much last year, along with a four-star redshirt freshman (Will Redmond) and an incoming JUCO transfer (Justin Cox). Jay Hughes is intriguing, and it's a good sign that Jamerson Love managed to defense three passes in minimal playing time, but this will be a green unit, one in need of a lot more help up front.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Baker Swedenburg	6'0, 205	Sr.	57	41.1	3	33	18	89.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Devon Bell	6'2, 195	So.	64	60.3	13	20.3%
Brian Egan	5'11, 210	Sr.	9	59.7	3	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Devon Bell	6'2, 195	So.	43-44	10-14	71.4%	4-7	57.1%
Charllie Grandfield			4-4	0-0	N/A	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jameon Lewis	KR	5'9, 195	Jr.	20	25.9	1
LaDarius Perkins	KR	5'10, 195	Sr.	16	20.3	0
Johnthan Banks	PR			14	8.8	0
Chad Bumphis	PR			6	6.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	32
Net Punting	15
Net Kickoffs	90
Touchback Pct	103
Field Goal Pct	94
Kick Returns Avg	46
Punt Returns Avg	81

9. Lots of good punters in the SEC

Mississippi State is the third SEC team I've previewed thus far. It is also the third SEC team I'm previewing with a pretty damn good punter. Kentucky has Landon Foster and ranked 19th in Net Punting last year, Auburn has Steven Clark and ranked 32nd (kicker Cody Parkey was the Tigers' primary field position weapon), and Mississippi State has wonderfully-named Baker Swedenburg and ranked 15th.

The SEC stereotype is one of depth and speed, and those traits often trickle down into great special teams coverage units. But the punters themselves are pretty damn good.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	vs. Oklahoma State	6
7-Sep	Alcorn State	NR
14-Sep	at Auburn	59
21-Sep	Troy	102
5-Oct	LSU	3
12-Oct	Bowling Green	67
26-Oct	Kentucky	90
2-Nov	at South Carolina	19
9-Nov	at Texas A&M	13
16-Nov	Alabama	1
23-Nov	at Arkansas	37
30-Nov	Ole Miss	29

Five-Year F/+ Rk	56
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	27
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+16 / +8.4
TO Luck/Game	+2.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-3.7

10. Things get tough a little quicker in 2013

Again, there are plenty of winnable games on MSU's 2013 slate. The Bulldogs will be favored against Alcorn State, Troy, Bowling Green, and Kentucky at home, and trips to Auburn and Arkansas (along with a visit from Ole Miss) are not incredibly intimidating. But for MSU to rack up another eight-win (or better) season this time around, the Bulldogs will have to start at a higher level than what they attained for much of last season. They start the season by facing Oklahoma State, a likely a Top 10 team on paper (and perhaps Top 15 in the polls), in Houston. Following the perhaps vital visit to Auburn in mid-September, they welcome LSU to Starkvegas on October 5. If MSU is 4-3 heading into November, finding a fifth and sixth win will be difficult. The Bulldogs will need to either pull an upset or win at Auburn to keep the bowl streak alive at three years. And it probably goes without saying that the naysayers will get quite a bit louder if MSU falters to 5-7 or worse.

Dan Mullen has done a solid job at Mississippi State. He inherited a program that had been to just one bowl in eight years (and had won more than even four games just twice in that span) and has been to a bowl and found his team ranked in the Top 25 for at least part of three straight seasons. But while a five- (or even six-) win season would have represented remarkable progress in years past, it would now be a further sign of regression from Mullen's 2010 peak. With potential young stars in players like Chris Jones, linebacker Richie Brown, corner Will Redmond, receiver Fred Ross, future quarterback Cord Sandberg, etc., MSU will continue to have a reasonably high ceiling (especially for MSU) in the years to come. But everybody in the SEC West has a pretty high ceiling, and Mullen has failed to distinguish his team from others in the last couple of years. A hard job seems to be getting harder.