College Football

2013 Tennessee football's 10 things to know: A pretty (and blank) canvas

New Tennessee head coach Butch Jones inherits a team that will be strong in the trenches and who-the-hell-knows just about everywhere else. Former coach Derek Dooley left him a cupboard that was far from bare, but will Jones be able to engineer enough of a turnaround to get the Vols to their first bowl in three seasons? For more Vols, visit Tennessee site Rocky Top Talk.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC May 28, 2013, 10:08am EDT

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Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Probably the right time for a move

One of the reasons I was pretty high on Texas A&M last summer, despite the fact that starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback is usually a scary proposition (whoops), was because, from a blank-slate perspective, the Aggies were loaded with former star recruits and players who, in a vacuum, had produced at a high level at times. The 2011 Texas A&M team had a lot of both baggage and potential. It seemed the perfect time for a new head coach, with a new attitude and outlook, to take over in College Station. Sure enough, some of those underachieving pieces began to achieve at a higher level; throw in a new, exciting (to put it mildly) quarterback, and voila: an 11-2 season for Texas A&M.

Now, I'm not going to say Tennessee is this year's Texas A&M. Not even close. The Aggies' underachievement in 2011 was situational -- A&M was a Top 15 team on paper in 2011, tainted by bad luck and late-game execution; meanwhile, Tennessee's record and F/+ ranking (5-7 and 57th) matched up quite well.

Still, when you see how many former four-star recruits will be taking the field this fall, and you see how good the offensive line is, and you see how marred the back of Tennessee's defense was by injury, you can at least talk yourself into Tennessee being a Top 30 to 40 team in Butch Jones' first year in charge.

I'm typically a fan of giving a coach at least four years before firing. Sometimes you can justify three years, and on rare occasion you can justify two (call it the Jon Embree Amendment); in Tennessee's case, I think the Vols were justified in dumping Derek Dooley just 36 games into his tenure in Knoxville. Not only were the Vols underachieving, but it was conceivable that a new coach could come in and turn those underachieving tendencies around pretty quickly.

Jones inherits a team that is, at the very least, intriguing. An entirely new passing game might take a while to develop, and the defense is still an enormous question mark, but there is potential here. And if you ignore the terrifying top end of the schedule, there are some wins to be found in 2013 as well.

More: Bill Connelly's national preview countdown Just the SEC

2. It just never all came together

I can justify it, but that doesn't mean Dooley wasn't dealt a pretty poor hand. His first season, 2010, was damaged by both the chemistry issues that accompany two coaching changes in 12 months and some wacky end-of-game situations (LSU, North Carolina). His second was limited by injuries on offense. His third was limited by injuries on defense.

A team with Tennessee's 2012 offense and 2011 defense would have ranked in the top 30 and probably won seven to nine games in 2012. And in that situation, Dooley is still the head coach in Knoxville.

Ifs, buts, candy, nuts, et cetera. With its recruiting rankings relatively high, Tennessee should have been able to overcome some of the injuries it didn't overcome. That's on Dooley to an extent. Now Jones, who took over at Cincinnati when Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame and went 19-6 after a first-year step backward, gets a chance to do what Dooley could not and produce a roster with both explosiveness and depth.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 \| Adj. Record: 9-3 \| Final F/+ Rk: 57
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
31-Aug	vs. N.C. State	35-21	W	40.7 - 28.4	W
8-Sep	Georgia State	51-13	W	34.7 - 20.9	W
15-Sep	Florida	20-37	L	34.8 - 46.3	L
22-Sep	Akron	47-26	W	36.1 - 19.9	W
29-Sep	at Georgia	44-51	L	34.2 - 37.1	L
13-Oct	at Mississippi State	31-41	L	35.7 - 28.1	W
20-Oct	Alabama	13-44	L	35.3 - 33.2	W
27-Oct	at South Carolina	35-38	L	46.1 - 33.8	W
3-Nov	Troy	55-48	W	49.9 - 34.1	W
10-Nov	Missouri	48-51	L	40.4 - 34.7	W
17-Nov	at Vanderbilt	18-41	L	22.1 - 33.3	L
24-Nov	Kentucky	37-17	W	35.5 - 28.8	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	36.2	22	35.7	106
Adj. Points Per Game	37.1	8	31.5	94

3. The defense faded

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Tennessee 36.6, Opponent 28.9 (plus-7.7)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 8 games): Tennessee 37.4, Opponent 32.9 (plus-4.5)

The 2012 season certainly began with promise. Tennessee whipped N.C. State, put up a solid fight against Florida for three quarters, and endured some bad breaks against Akron to eventually win comfortably. The defense showed some glitches against Florida but at least played at a reasonably average level in the season's first month.

And average would be good enough to win some games with a devastating passing game. But slowly, attrition in the secondary began to have an effect. Safety Brian Randolph played only three games, corner Marsalis Teague seven. Only three of the top seven defensive backs played in all 12 games, and the linebacking corps dealt with some issues as well. This wasn't a very deep unit to begin with, and in terms of Adj. Points, the defense was about four points worse in October and November, months that saw the Vols lose two games by three points.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	18	8	8	8
RUSHING	62	13	8	24
PASSING	15	7	7	8
Standard Downs		6	11	4
Passing Downs		16	6	25
Redzone		6	24	2

Q1 Rk	19	1st Down Rk	1
Q2 Rk	6	2nd Down Rk	23
Q3 Rk	2	3rd Down Rk	20
Q4 Rk	20

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Tyler Bray

268

451

3,612

59.4%

1.5%

7.8

Justin Worley

6'4, 213

Jr.

*** (5.6)

134

65.2%

0.0%

5.8

Nathan Peterman

6'2, 226

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

Joshua Dobbs

6'3, 190

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Riley Ferguson

6'2, 190

Fr.

*** (5.7)

4. An all-new passing game

Led by a stellar line and extreme passing downs efficiency, Tennessee's offense played at a rather high level for most of the season. The line should be stellar once again, and the top two running backs return, so new offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian (Jones' O.C. at Cincinnati) should be able to lean on the running game in 2013.

But the passing game was the star for Tennessee, and all of the primary pieces of that passing game are gone, namely Tyler Bray and his top four targets. Last year's backup, Justin Worley, barely played (and looked far from amazing when he did), and the top returning targets are two running backs and a receiver who averaged 2.3 yards per target last year. There are former four-star recruits everywhere you look -- quarterback Nathan Peterman, running backs Rajion Neal and Marlin Lane, receivers Alton Howard, Drae Bowls, Jason Croom, Marquez North, and Paul Harris -- but they are all ultra-young and completely unproven. This is probably going to take some patience.

Justin Worley. Andy Lyons, Getty.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Rajion Neal	RB	5'11, 211	Sr.	**** (5.8)	156	708	4.5	3.2	5	-4.6
Marlin Lane, Jr.	RB	5'11, 205	Jr.	**** (5.8)	120	658	5.5	4.7	2	+10.2
Devrin Young	WR	5'8, 172	Jr.	*** (5.5)	33	140	4.2	3.7	0	-1.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	WR				25	308	12.3	11.3	3	+17.7
Quenshaun Watson	RB				23	66	2.9	4.0	1	-4.4
Alton Howard	WR	5'8, 185	So.	**** (5.8)	14	44	3.1	4.0	0	-1.4
A.J. Johnson	LB	6'2, 240	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12	21	1.8	N/A	6	-1.9
Tyler Bray	QB				8	16	2.0	1.9	0	-2.2
Alden Hill	RB	6'2, 217	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Jabo Lee	RB	5'10, 180	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Justin Hunter

132

1083

55.3%

8.2

29.3%

58.3%

8.3

180.2

Cordarrelle Patterson

778

54.8%

9.3

18.7%

60.7%

9.2

129.5

Mychal Rivera

562

66.7%

10.4

12.0%

68.5%

10.7

93.5

Zach Rogers

491

69.6%

10.7

10.2%

65.2%

10.7

81.7

Marlin Lane, Jr.

5'11, 205

Jr.

**** (5.8)

228

96.7%

7.6

6.7%

53.3%

7.7

37.9

Rajion Neal

5'11, 211

Sr.

**** (5.8)

149

70.4%

5.5

6.0%

44.4%

6.8

24.8

Alton Howard

WR-Z

5'8, 185

So.

**** (5.8)

56.5%

2.3

5.1%

73.9%

2.6

9.0

Vincent Dallas

WR-X

5'11, 187

Jr.

*** (5.7)

149

64.3%

10.6

3.1%

50.0%

9.6

24.8

Jacob Carter

WR-Y

6'0, 180

Jr.

126

57.1%

9.0

3.1%

42.9%

10.3

21.0

Ben Bartholomew

102

78.6%

7.3

3.1%

85.7%

7.1

17.0

Devrin Young

5'8, 172

Jr.

*** (5.5)

71.4%

1.3

1.6%

28.6%

1.4

1.5

Brendan Downs

6'5, 254

Jr.

*** (5.6)

75.0%

9.8

0.9%

100.0%

5.9

6.5

Justin King

6'2, 225

So.

*** (5.6)

Cody Blanc

6'3, 202

So.

** (5.4)

Drae Bowles

WR-X

6'0, 202

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

Jason Croom

WR-Z

6'5, 232

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

Justin Meredith

6'5, 223

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

Woody Quinn

6'6, 260

Jr.

** (5.4)

Marquez North

6'3, 205

Fr.

**** (6.0)

Paul Harris

WR-Y

6'4, 195

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Ryan Jenkins

5'10, 179

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.4	3.12	2.86	41.2%	66.7%	20.7%	460.5	1.2%	1.6%
Rank	23	36	90	38	62	90	2	3	5

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Dallas Thomas	LG				37 career starts; 2012 2nd All-SEC
Ja'Wuan James	RT	6'6, 323	Sr.	**** (5.9)	37 career starts
Zach Fulton	RG	6'5, 324	Sr.	*** (5.7)	29 career starts
James Stone	C	6'3, 300	Sr.	**** (5.8)	27 career starts
Alex Bullard	LG	6'2, 300	Sr.	**** (5.8)	14 career starts
Antonio Richardson	LT	6'6, 332	Jr.	**** (5.9)	12 career starts
Darin Gooch	C				6 career starts
Marcus Jackson	LG	6'2, 310	Jr.	**** (5.8)	5 career starts
Alan Posey	LT	6'5, 321	So.	*** (5.7)
Mack Crowder	C	6'2, 283	So.	*** (5.6)
Kyler Kerbyson	RG	6'4, 320	So.	*** (5.7)
Austin Sanders	OL	6'5, 300	Fr.	**** (5.8)

5. Decent backs, great line

Both Rajion Neal and Marlin Lane (suspended for spring but supposedly returning) have showed decent between-the-tackles abilities; plus, Lane in particular has shown at least a little bit of open-field ability. He's also one of the best pass-catching running backs in the country. His return would give the running back unit an enormous boost.

Both backs had it pretty easy last year, however, running behind a line that gave them quite a few opportunities. There were issues with stuffs (negative plays on the ground), and the line's sack rate was done favors by Tyler Bray's throwaways (he was quick to throw the ball into the stands if pressure started coming and receivers weren't open).

But this was still one of the conference's better offensive lines; in 2013, the line returns six players with starting experience (including four seniors) and 124 career starts. All-conference guard Dallas Thomas is gone, but this will still be one of the best lines in the SEC. And if you've got to start an unproven quarterback with unproven receivers, a quality line can do you some enormous favors.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	110	87	64	93
RUSHING	87	83	58	106
PASSING	114	84	77	87
Standard Downs		95	72	105
Passing Downs		62	64	66
Redzone		37	49	33

Q1 Rk	67	1st Down Rk	68
Q2 Rk	77	2nd Down Rk	88
Q3 Rk	98	3rd Down Rk	75
Q4 Rk	39

6. Mediocre at almost everything

Tennessee's injuries occurred mostly in the secondary, but it's not like the pass defense was really any worse than the run defense. The Vols were good in the red zone, good in short yardage (where mammoth tackle Daniel McCullers came in most handy), absolutely atrocious in preventing big plays on the ground, potentially even worse at rushing the quarterback, and between mediocre and below average at everything else.

The pieces weren't right for a smooth conversion to Sal Sunseri's 3-4 defense, and it appears that new coordinator John Jancek (who also comes to Knoxville from Cincinnati) will move back to a mostly four-man front. That could fit the personnel well, as frankly there are more experienced, potentially high-quality linemen than linebackers. End Jacques Smith has played both end and OLB in his career, tackles McCullers and Couch make for a big, relatively active combination, and A.J. Johnson should be just fine at middle linebacker.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.0	2.67	3.30	38.1%	57.8%	21.7%	61.9	3.9%	3.7%
Rank	44	26	67	53	8	35	116	83	108

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Maurice Couch	DT	6'2, 299	Sr.	**** (5.8)	12	30.0	4.2%	4	1	0	0	1	0
Daniel McCullers	DT	6'8, 360	Sr.	**** (5.9)	12	29.5	4.1%	5.5	1	0	1	1	0
Jacques Smith	DE	6'2, 244	Sr.	**** (5.9)	12	25.5	3.5%	7	2	0	0	0	0
Jordan Williams	DE	6'5, 256	Jr.	*** (5.7)	10	14.5	2.0%	4	2	0	0	0	0
Corey Miller	DT	6'3, 257	Sr.	**** (5.9)	12	13.0	1.8%	5	1	0	1	0	0
Darrington Sentimore	DE				12	12.5	1.7%	5	4	0	2	0	1
Marion Walls	DE	6'2, 285	Sr.	**** (6.0)	12	9.0	1.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Daniel Hood	DT	6'4, 292	Sr.	*** (5.7)	12	4.5	0.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Trevarris Saulsberry	DT	6'4, 285	So.	*** (5.6)	4	4.5	0.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Steven Fowlkes	DL				10	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
LaTroy Lewis	DE	6'4, 238	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Danny O'Brien	DT	6'2, 304	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Corey Vereen	DE	6'2, 230	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Jason Carr	DE	6'6, 280	Fr.	**** (5.8)

7. Lots and lots of four-stars

Again, if you're an incoming coach, you have to love it when the previous coaching staff(s) recruited relatively well. After a while, a four-star rating ceases to mean anything, but players like Johnson, McCullers and Smith have certainly shown four-star potential. Plus, others like corner Justin Coleman and LaDarrell McNeil have begun to compile a decent amount of experience, and a new load of four-star freshmen and redshirt freshmen enter the rotation this fall. Jancek and company still have to figure out how to coax potential into production, but the upside is there.

Of course, upside often presents itself in the form of disruptive stats ... and Tennessee just didn't have many of those in 2012. Only one player had more than seven tackles for loss, only one had more than two sacks (Darrington Sentimore, who is now gone), and only one defensed more than six passes (safety Byron Moore, who is probably not going to have more INTs than PBUs in 2013). Jancek's Cincy defenses were reasonably effective (29th in Def. F/+ in 2012 despite, obviously, lesser recruiting rankings) and active (ninth in passes defensed last year, 28th in forced fumbles, 54th in tackles for loss). If this defense finds a higher level of (successful) aggression, its ceiling starts to match its recruiting rankings.

Experience is a double-edged sword, however. Both the offensive and defensive lines are loaded with seniors; if other units (quarterback, receiver, defensive back) hold the Vols back, and they don't improve much in 2013, then 2014 could see another sideways step as the pass offense and defense improve and the lines start from scratch.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
A.J. Johnson	MLB	6'2, 240	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12	100.5	13.9%	8.5	1	0	1	0	1
Herman Lathers	OLB				11	53.0	7.4%	5	2	1	4	1	0
Curt Maggitt	OLB	6'3, 240	Jr.	**** (5.8)	9	23.0	3.2%	5	2	0	1	2	0
Brent Brewer	OLB	6'1, 214	Sr.	*** (5.7)	12	23.0	3.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Channing Fugate	MLB	6'1, 239	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	14.0	1.9%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Dontavis Sapp	OLB	6'2, 224	Sr.	** (5.3)	12	13.0	1.8%	2.5	0	0	0	0	1
Willie Bohannon	OLB				11	11.0	1.5%	2.5	1	0	1	1	1
Raiques Crump	OLB	6'1, 218	Sr.	** (5.3)	11	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
John Propst	OLB	6'0, 225	Sr.	*** (5.6)	9	2.0	0.3%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Christian Harris	MLB	6'1, 226	So.	*** (5.5)
Kenny Bynum	OLB	6'1, 246	RSFr.	*** (5.6)

8. Appreciating A.J. Johnson

Brilliant slo-mo from ESPN on AJ Johnson's airborne TD for the #Vols produces an amazing shot twitpic.com/b5z2hw
— CJ Fogler (@cjzero) October 21, 2012

The only thing that makes people happier than a star linebacker coming in to score short-yardage touchdowns is a defensive tackle doing the same. The 2012 season wasn't very much fun for Tennessee, but big defenders scoring offensive touchdowns always brings a smile to this college football fan's lips; that said big defender is also a good linebacker is just a bonus.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Byron Moore	S	6'0, 193	Sr.	**** (5.9)	12	67.0	9.3%	2	0	5	4	0	0
Justin Coleman	CB	5'10, 182	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12	47.0	6.5%	3.5	0	0	3	0	0
LaDarrell McNeil	S	6'1, 195	So.	**** (5.9)	11	45.5	6.3%	0	0	0	1	1	1
Prentiss Waggner	CB				12	39.5	5.5%	2	0	2	4	1	0
Eric Gordon	CB	5'9, 190	Sr.	**** (5.9)	10	37.0	5.1%	3.5	0	2	4	0	0
Jaron Toney	DB	5'10, 188	Jr.	NR	11	36.0	5.0%	2	0	0	3	0	0
Brian Randolph	S	6'0, 195	So.	*** (5.7)	3	19.5	2.7%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Rod Wilks	S				12	10.5	1.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Marsalis Teague	CB				7	7.5	1.0%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Daniel Gray	DB				8	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Geraldo Orta	DB	6'0, 179	So.	*** (5.6)	9	1.5	0.2%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Naz Oliver	CB	5'10, 179	Sr.	*** (5.7)	1	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Riyahd Jones	CB	6'0, 186	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Lemond Johnson	CB	6'1, 190	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	S	6'1, 200	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Michael Palardy	5'11, 177	Sr.	36	43.1	1	10	16	72.2%
Matt Darr	6'1, 213	Jr.	16	39.0	1	4	6	62.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Michael Palardy	5'11, 177	Sr.	76	61.6	25	32.9%
Derrick Brodus	5'11, 188	Jr.	2	62.5	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Michael Palardy	5'11, 177	Sr.	37-40	9-11	81.8%	0-1	0.0%
Derrick Brodus	5'11, 188	Jr.	12-14	6-7	85.7%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Cordarrelle Patterson	KR			24	28.0	1
Devrin Young	KR	5'8, 172	Jr.	8	17.8	0
Devrin Young	PR	5'8, 172	Jr.	16	9.7	0
Cordarrelle Patterson	PR			4	25.2	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	65
Net Punting	53
Net Kickoffs	49
Touchback Pct	75
Field Goal Pct	31
Kick Returns Avg	83
Punt Returns Avg	23

9. Miss you, Cordarrelle

During his recruitment, Cordarrelle Patterson compared himself to Randy Moss and DeSean Jackson. His receiver skills did not quite match that incredible combination, but when he was returning kicks and punts, damned if he didn't look like Jackson in Moss' body. Patterson's vision and open-field running ability were outstanding, and as much as he will be missed in the receiving corps, his special teams might be even more missed. This was a pretty average special teams unit overall, but Patterson gave it quite a bit of upside.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Austin Peay	NR
7-Sep	Western Kentucky	94
14-Sep	at Oregon	2
21-Sep	at Florida	4
28-Sep	South Alabama	119
5-Oct	Georgia	9
19-Oct	South Carolina	19
26-Oct	at Alabama	1
2-Nov	at Missouri	39
9-Nov	Auburn	59
23-Nov	Vanderbilt	49
30-Nov	at Kentucky	90

Five-Year F/+ Rk	46
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	18
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-6 / +1.1
TO Luck/Game	-3.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (5, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-0.1

10. A top-heavy schedule

There are two ways to look at Tennessee's 2013 schedule:

A) Holy crap, three road games versus top-five teams? Five against the top 20? This is the hardest schedule in the country!

B) Hmm, seven games versus teams projected 39th or worse? Yeah, Tennessee can get back to a bowl this year.

Calling this schedule top-heavy doesn't really do it justice. Tennessee plays only two teams projected between ninth and 49th, with between four and five built-in losses and between three and five built-in wins (depending on your level of optimism). Those middle games -- South Carolina, at Missouri, Vanderbilt -- will probably dictate whether the Vols go bowling for the first time in three years.

Honestly, this should be a pretty good team. The passing game is cause for alarm, and until we see the defense playing at a more aggressive level (and doing it relatively successfully), we don't know that it will. But if you look at players and units as blank canvases, you have to like the potential just about everywhere. The offensive line will be good to great, the front seven should conform well to Jancek's 4-3, the running backs will be competent to good, and the secondary, if healthy, should improve. Butch Jones has had a very positive offseason in terms of P.R., and he should find a lot to like about the personnel he inherits.

But will it be enough? Will Tennessee's strength in the trenches overcome its extreme inexperience elsewhere? The Vols did go 0-3 versus the three teams referenced as the "middle games" above -- will they improve enough to offset the fact that those three times will potentially improve as well?