College Football

2013 South Carolina football's 10 things to know: The Clowney effect

A thin South Carolina defense was thinned out even more by graduation, the offense will be relying pretty heavily on an untested sophomore running back, and special teams could be a liability without the star punt returner? Yes, but ... Jadeveon Clowney! For more Gamecocks, visit South Carolina site Garnet and Black Attack.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC May 31, 2013, 9:04am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Never mind the West Virginia Effect

South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is better at his position than any other player in college football is at theirs. That goes for Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel, USC receiver Marqise Lee, Notre Dame tackle Stephon Tuitt, BYU outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy, or anybody else. A boom-or-bust player as a freshman in 2011, Clowney not only lived up to the hype of being the No. 1 recruit in the country in 2012, he did so in a way that dooms almost every future No. 1 recruit to bust status by comparison.

Clowney was not only incredible at his position in 2012, he was incredible in a human-highlight-reel kind of way. And he saved his best highlights for the end of the season, so that everybody in the college football universe would brightly remember them long into the offseason. First, he recorded 4.5 sacks versus Clemson...

...and then he erased Michigan running back Vincent Smith from existence.

Every year, we witness the West Virginia Effect, in which a team that looks amazing in its bowl game gets increasingly ridiculous hype as the long, arduous offseason plods along. You forget about the shortcomings the given team had during the regular season, and you just remember the perfect final act. It's human nature, really. You could also call it the Nebraska Effect if you so choose. Louisville seems like the most likely ~~victim~~ candidate for the West Virginia Effect in 2013 (Clemson's also in the conversation), but in taking a gander at The Sporting News' preseason top 25 that was released this week, I think we can add another effect to the list: The Clowney Effect.

Issue: South Carolina returns only one of its top five running backs, and the ground game was really only above-average at best, even when Marcus Lattimore was healthy.

Response: Jadeveon Clowney.

Issue: South Carolina also returns only one of its top four receiving targets from a passing game that was explosive but not incredibly efficient.

Response: Jadeveon Clowney.

Issue: South Carolina must also replace its top five linebackers, not to mention stud safety D.J. Swearinger and stud end Devin Taylor from a defense that was perilously thin last year.

Response: Jadeveon Clowney.

Now, if any single defensive player could carry a good team to greatness, it's Clowney. But he alone is not going to mask the other issues South Carolina had last year. To live up to even Top 10 hype, much less Top 3 hype, the Gamecocks are going to need some freshmen and sophomores to rather quickly come up big, and that's always a scary proposition.

The schedule is strangely navigable, yes, and the ceiling is high; but it's difficult for me to see this team as a reliable threat to reach the BCS title game.

2. Escape from Glen Mason Territory

It really did take Steve Spurrier a little while to re-establish himself at the college level. He returned to the SEC in 2005, engineered enough of an improvement to get the Gamecocks back to a bowl game for the first time in four seasons, then basically stagnated for the next four years. Despite his reputation as one of the most innovative, interesting offensive coaches of the last 25 years, his early South Carolina teams just weren't very good on offense. (And even now, after three straight years of high-quality ball, the offense still lags behind the defense by a decent margin.) He lost either five or six games in each of his first six seasons in Columbia.

If not for his résumé, Spurrier could have been an interesting Glen Mason Territory candidate.

Beginning in 2010, however, the Gamecocks turned a corner. Improvement didn't show up in the win column until 2011, but they have ranked 14th, 20th, and 13th in the F/+ rankings over the last three years, they won the 2010 SEC East title, and they have gone 11-2 in each of the last two years. Granted, South Carolina fans probably didn't expect that it would take Spurrier six seasons to establish such a high level of play, but he has now.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 \| Adj. Record: 11-2 \| Final F/+ Rk: 13
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
30-Aug	at Vanderbilt	17-13	W	29.1 - 16.8	W
8-Sep	East Carolina	48-10	W	32.8 - 26.2	W
15-Sep	UAB	49-6	W	38.5 - 10.2	W
22-Sep	Missouri	31-10	W	39.6 - 24.8	W
29-Sep	at Kentucky	38-17	W	30.6 - 19.4	W
6-Oct	Georgia	35-7	W	36.1 - 9.9	W
13-Oct	at LSU	21-23	L	23.2 - 28.7	L
20-Oct	at Florida	11-44	L	15.5 - 12.2	W
27-Oct	Tennessee	38-35	W	31.3 - 28.9	W
10-Nov	Arkansas	38-20	W	28.9 - 26.9	W
17-Nov	Wofford	24-7	W	20.6 - 29.5	L
24-Nov	at Clemson	27-17	W	27.4 - 23.0	W
1-Jan	vs. Michigan	33-28	W	46.0 - 18.1	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	31.5	44	18.2	13
Adj. Points Per Game	30.7	48	21.1	14

3. Wearing down

South Carolina was done no favors by the Injury Bug in 2012. Star running back Marcus Lattimore was lost for the season with a torn-up knee in the ninth game of the year, backup running back Brandon Wilds never saw the field at all, and quarterback Connor Shaw missed two games and was less than 100 percent for others. Clowney and Swearinger both missed time, and only three of the top eight defensive backs played in all 13 games. And some combination of injury and poor depth had South Carolina playing pretty average football down the stretch.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 8 games): SC 30.7, Opponent 18.5 (+12.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): SC 27.1, Opponent 27.1 (+0.0)

Granted, this slump didn't impact South Carolina's record -- the Gamecocks avoided upsets against Tennessee (a late UT comeback fell short), Arkansas, and Wofford (7-7 heading into Q4) and still beat Clemson on the road. And after some time to heal, the Gamecocks played quite well in the Outback Bowl versus Michigan (and they needed to -- Michigan played well, too).

Even if it was due mostly to injuries, the late-season regression is a bit of a red flag for 2013 simply because of the number of key players the defense must replace. The linebacking corps is starting from scratch, and the secondary is without its anchor, Swearinger. A similar run of injuries could be devastating this time around, though odds are perhaps in favor of South Carolina avoiding a similar run of injuries.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	84	44	57	41
RUSHING	91	65	65	67
PASSING	58	38	51	32
Standard Downs		83	93	79
Passing Downs		11	14	12
Redzone		51	46	53

Q1 Rk	72	1st Down Rk	62
Q2 Rk	68	2nd Down Rk	50
Q3 Rk	17	3rd Down Rk	10
Q4 Rk	6

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Connor Shaw

6'1, 204

Sr.

*** (5.7)

154

228

1,956

67.5%

9.9%

7.1

Dylan Thompson

6'3, 212

Jr.

** (5.4)

127

1,027

52.0%

9.3%

6.6

Seth Strickland

66.7%

0.0%

16.0

Brendan Nosovitch

6'1, 223

RSFr.

*** (5.6)

Connor Mitch

6'3, 210

Fr.

**** (5.8)

4. Shaw vs. Thompson

In February at Football Study Hall, I wrote a long piece about quarterbacks and the charting data we had compiled in 2012. For me, one of the most interesting takeaways from the piece was just how different the South Carolina offense was when Connor Shaw and Dylan Thompson were behind center.

Nobody threw deep more frequently in this sample than South Carolina's Connor Shaw. […] With Conner Shaw in the game, South Carolina goes either very short or very long; with Dylan Thompson, there's a lot more intermediate passing.

When healthy, Shaw is a dangerous dual-threat quarterback. Shaw is an effective runner, and South Carolina happily pecks away at you with six-yard gains, sucking you in and eventually leaving you vulnerable to big gains downfield. With Thompson in the game, however, the offense changes. Thompson is far from immobile, but he doesn't run nearly as much as Shaw (pass-attempts-to-carries ratio: Shaw 2.38, Thompson 6.67), and South Carolina takes on more of a pro-style look, with running backs doing the running and the quarterback throwing intermediate passes.

The offense is also less effective when Thompson is in, of course.

Adj. Points Per Game (with Shaw): 30.9
Adj. Points Per Game (with Thompson): 27.2

Shaw is the starter as long as he can fend off injuries, but in Thompson, South Carolina does appear to have a backup that can at least fend off major regression. And in 2014, it will be interesting to see if a couple of more highly touted youngsters can challenge Thompson for the starting role.

One note, however: Both quarterbacks take far too many sacks, especially on standard downs. Shaw was particularly good at bailing himself out on passing downs, but the Gamecocks were far below average on standard downs and fell into too many second- and third-and-longs overall.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Marcus Lattimore	RB				143	662	4.6	4.4	11	-2.2
Brandon Wilds (2011)	RB	6'2, 218	So.	*** (5.5)	107	486	4.5	N/A	3	-4.7
Connor Shaw	QB	6'1, 204	Sr.	*** (5.7)	106	586	5.5	4.2	3	+8.0
Kenny Miles	RB				104	359	3.5	2.8	2	-11.5
Mike Davis	RB	5'9, 215	So.	**** (5.9)	52	275	5.3	8.5	2	+2.0
Dylan Thompson	QB	6'3, 212	Jr.	** (5.4)	21	130	6.2	5.2	1	+3.3
Bruce Ellington	WR	5'9, 197	Jr.	NR	5	28	5.6	8.5	0	-0.1
Shon Carson	RB	5'8, 219	So.	*** (5.7)
Kendric Salley	RB	5'9, 215	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
David Williams	RB	6'1, 192	Fr.	**** (5.8)

5. Mike Davis might decide this team's fate

When healthy, Marcus Lattimore always passes the eyeball test. He just looks like a future all-pro running back. But even before injuries, Lattimore didn't post irreplaceable numbers in 2011 or 2012. He was lost for the season with an awful knee injury for two straight years, and in neither season did South Carolina's numbers suffer without him.

Even if a back is replaceable, you still need to find someone to actually replace him. Kenny Miles is also gone, and Brandon Wilds didn't exactly light the world on fire in 2011; after an interesting freshman season, Mike Davis entered spring 2013 with a chance to seize control of the starting running back job, and it appears he did just that.

Davis' upside is high. He had a nice recruiting pedigree, and he easily showed more explosiveness than any other South Carolina back last year. If the Gamecocks are able to lean on him and set up both keepers by Shaw and downfield passing to Bruce Ellington, Damiere Byrd, and company, they should put more than enough points on the board to roll through most of their 2013 schedule. The offensive line, decent to good last year, returns six players with starting experience and is big and mean in the middle. Davis should be able to take advantage of the running lanes the line generates.

Mike Davis. Curtis Wilson, USA Today.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Ace Sanders

531

61.6%

7.3

20.9%

54.8%

7.0

80.8

Bruce Ellington

5'9, 197

Jr.

600

70.2%

10.5

16.3%

64.9%

10.6

91.3

Justice Cunningham

324

74.2%

10.5

8.9%

51.6%

10.3

49.3

Marcus Lattimore

173

86.7%

5.8

8.6%

46.7%

5.8

26.3

Rory Anderson

6'5, 218

Jr.

*** (5.6)

271

50.0%

9.7

8.0%

53.6%

9.7

41.2

Damiere Byrd

5'9, 168

Jr.

**** (5.8)

366

60.9%

15.9

6.6%

52.2%

15.8

55.7

Kenny Miles

190

87.0%

8.3

6.6%

52.2%

8.0

28.9

Nick Jones

5'7, 171

Jr.

*** (5.6)

197

60.0%

9.9

5.7%

50.0%

9.0

30.0

D.L. Moore

139

40.0%

7.0

5.7%

65.0%

7.5

21.1

Shaq Roland

6'1, 182

So.

**** (5.8)

27.8%

4.4

5.1%

55.6%

4.5

12.2

DeAngelo Smith

28.6%

6.6

2.0%

57.1%

6.4

7.0

K.J. Brent

6'4, 185

So.

*** (5.7)

100.0%

9.3

0.9%

33.3%

11.2

4.3

Jerell Adams

6'6, 224

So.

**** (5.8)

80.0%

18.0

1.4%

60.0%

18.0

13.7

Shamier Jeffery

6'1, 204

So.

*** (5.7)

Jody Fuller

5'11, 211

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

Kwinton Smith

6'4, 206

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.0	2.67	3.80	36.4%	65.4%	19.6%	63.8	8.0%	11.4%
Rank	36	98	13	88	75	75	113	111	115

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
T.J. Johnson	C				53 career starts; 2012 2nd All-SEC
A.J. Cann	LG	6'4, 310	Jr.	**** (5.8)	25 career starts
Ronald Patrick	RG	6'2, 315	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13 career starts
Brandon Shell	RT	6'6, 321	So.	**** (5.9)	10 career starts
Mike Matulis	LT	6'5, 264	Jr.	*** (5.7)	10 career starts
Corey Robinson	LT	6'8, 338	Jr.	*** (5.6)	9 career starts
Cody Gibson	RT	6'7, 284	Jr.	*** (5.6)	6 career starts
Kyle Harris	C				1 career start
Will Sport	RG	6'5, 289	So.	*** (5.5)
Kaleb Broome	RG
Cody Waldrop	C	6'2, 312	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Clayton Stadnik	C	6'3, 283	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Mason Zandi	LT	6'9, 287	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Brock Stadnik	LG	6'5, 291	Fr.	**** (5.8)
D.J. Park	RG	6'4, 335	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Na'Ty Rodgers	OL	6'5, 278	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	11	9	13	9
RUSHING	17	12	14	13
PASSING	21	10	13	10
Standard Downs		8	7	10
Passing Downs		15	22	14
Redzone		11	12	11

Q1 Rk	6	1st Down Rk	10
Q2 Rk	34	2nd Down Rk	20
Q3 Rk	4	3rd Down Rk	10
Q4 Rk	47

6. Hmm, I wonder why opponents tended to run a lot on passing downs…

Opponents played things straight on standard downs against South Carolina, running and passing with expected frequency. But on passing downs, they ran almost five percent more frequently than the national average. It's almost as if the Gamecocks had a pass rush opponents wanted to avoid or something.

Again, most of Jadeveon Clowney's help from last year is gone. Of the eight other players who sacked the quarterback at least twice in 2012, only two return. But the Clowney Effect makes it difficult to worry about that. End Chaz Sutton, who made nearly one-third of his tackles behind the line, does return; so does active, scary tackle Kelcy Quarles. Injuries could cause a pretty stark drop-off on the line, but the starting four should be as intimidating as almost any in the country.

7. Finish

One other hint that depth may have been an issue in 2012: South Carolina's defense was quite a bit worse in the second and fourth quarter than in the first and third. Again, this is a red flag considering how much South Carolina must replace from last year's two-deep. The second string on the defensive line will be extremely young, as will all strings at linebacker.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.8	2.44	3.45	34.6%	66.7%	22.6%	178.3	7.3%	13.8%
Rank	33	10	86	19	50	22	2	9	2

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jadeveon Clowney	DE	6'6, 272	Jr.	***** (6.1)	12	47.0	6.7%	23.5	13	0	2	3	1
Devin Taylor	DE				13	36.0	5.2%	8.5	3	0	6	0	1
Byron Jerideau	DT				13	32.5	4.7%	5.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Kelcy Quaries	DT	6'4, 293	Jr.	**** (5.9)	12	30.5	4.4%	8	3.5	0	0	0	0
Chaz Sutton	DE	6'5, 256	Jr.	**** (5.9)	13	23.0	3.3%	7	5	0	1	2	0
Aldrick Fordham	DE				13	18.0	2.6%	6.5	5.5	0	0	2	0
J.T. Surratt	DT	6'2, 311	Jr.	** (5.4)	10	11.5	1.6%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Gerald Dixon, Jr.	DT	6'3, 318	So.	*** (5.5)	12	6.5	0.9%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Phillip Dukes	DT	6'3, 315	So.	**** (5.8)	5	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mason Harris	DE	6'3, 215	So.	*** (5.6)	6	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darius English	DE	6'6, 225	RSFr.	*** (5.7)	2	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Gerald Dixon	DE	6'2, 275	So.	*** (5.7)	4	2.0	0.3%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Deon Green	DT	6'4, 283	So.	*** (5.6)
Kelsey Griffin	DT	6'2, 282	Fr.	**** (5.9)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Shaq Wilson	WLB				13	65.5	9.4%	4.5	2	2	1	2	1
Reginald Bowens	MLB				13	47.5	6.8%	1.5	1	0	1	3	2
DeVonte Holloman	SPUR				13	47.0	6.7%	8	2	3	4	2	0
Quin Smith	WLB				12	37.5	5.4%	4	2	0	0	0	0
Damario Jeffery	MLB				13	20.0	2.9%	3.5	0	0	1	0	0
Jordan Diggs	SPUR	6'0, 197	RSFr.	**** (5.8)	2	4.5	0.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Sharrod Golightly	SPUR	5'10, 179	Jr.	*** (5.6)	8	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kaiwan Lewis	MLB	6'0, 221	So.	*** (5.7)	11	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cedrick Cooper	WLB	6'2, 215	So.	*** (5.6)	11	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marcquis Roberts	WLB	6'1, 215	So.	*** (5.7)
Kelvin Rainey	WLB	6'3, 228	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
T.J. Holloman	MLB	6'2, 215	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Larenz Bryant	LB	6'1, 215	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Skai Moore	LB	6'2, 210	Fr.	**** (5.8)

8. How do you avoid regression?

South Carolina's defensive line was as aggressive as they come, but it was only good, not great, against the run. The Gamecocks did rank just 33rd in Adj. Line Yards, showing some lapses on passing downs rushing (draw plays and scrambles against an ears-pinned-back pass rush) and defending short-yardage situations at something less than an elite level. But a fantastic set of experienced linebackers cleaned up messes and allowed the line to remain aggressive.

Can a unit made up almost entirely of freshmen, redshirt freshmen, and sophomores play at the same level? Probably not. And if the linebackers are struggling at times, South Carolina could find itself falling victim to even more passing downs rushes and short passes that go for longer gains. You might be able to make South Carolina pay for its aggressiveness a bit more in 2013.

Secondary

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

D.J. Swearinger

70.5

10.1%

Brison Williams

5'11, 205

Jr.

*** (5.7)

47.5

6.8%

1.5

Jimmy Legree

6'0, 185

Sr.

*** (5.5)

39.5

5.7%

Victor Hampton

5'10, 197

Jr.

**** (5.9)

31.5

4.5%

Akeem Auguste

15.0

2.1%

T.J. Gurley

5'10, 183

So.

*** (5.6)

10.5

1.5%

Ahmad Christian

5'10, 189

So.

*** (5.7)

7.5

1.1%

Kadetrix Marcus

6'1, 185

Jr.

*** (5.7)

4.5

0.6%

Sidney Rhodes

5'10, 167

Jr.

4.0

0.6%

Chaz Elder

6'2, 194

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

0.0

0.0%

Rico McWilliams

5'11, 178

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

0.0

0.0%

Kyle Fleetwood

5'11, 214

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

0.0

0.0%

Chris Moody

6'1, 210

RSFr.

*** (5.6)

0.0

0.0%

Ronnie Martin

5'11, 173

Jr.

*** (5.7)

0.0

0.0%

Pharoh Cooper

5'11, 190

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Hull	6'2, 212	Jr.	54	39.4	5	22	12	63.0%
Patrick Fish	6'0, 194	Jr.	3	35.0	0	2	1	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Adam Yates			62	62.5	33	53.2%
Landon Ard	5'9, 189	So.	13	62.2	3	23.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Adam Yates			49-49	8-11	72.7%	3-6	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Bruce Ellington	KR	5'9, 197	Jr.	18	22.6	0
Damiere Byrd	KR	5'9, 168	Jr.	2	11.0	0
Akeem Auguste	KR			2	28.0	0
Ace Sanders	PR			28	15.3	2

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	86
Net Punting	78
Net Kickoffs	47
Touchback Pct	25
Field Goal Pct	86
Kick Returns Avg	62
Punt Returns Avg	10

9. Ace Sanders was terrifying

Does Ace Sanders have bones? Because it certainly seemed like he was carrying at least 170 pounds of muscle on his 175-pound frame. With the ball in his hands, Sanders was full of piss, vinegar, and a little more piss, showing an unfair combination of agility and strength that was good for South Carolina's passing game and great for South Carolina's return game and field position battles. Bruce Ellington exceeded Sanders' capabilities in the passing game at times; can he (or anybody else) approximate what Sanders brought to the table in punt returns?

Punting and place-kicking made this a pretty average special teams unit overall; special teams becomes an outright liability if Sanders' production cannot be at least somewhat replicated.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	North Carolina	32
7-Sep	at Georgia	9
14-Sep	Vanderbilt	49
28-Sep	at Central Florida	54
5-Oct	Kentucky	90
12-Oct	at Arkansas	37
19-Oct	at Tennessee	44
26-Oct	at Missouri	39
2-Nov	Mississippi State	51
16-Nov	Florida	4
23-Nov	Coastal Carolina	NR
30-Nov	Clemson	21

Five-Year F/+ Rk	20
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	16
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+4 / +12.1
TO Luck/Game	-3.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (7, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-5.4

10. Wait, just two Top 20 opponents? Is that right? And no November road games?

To an extent, I think I understand what The Sporting News saw in ranking South Carolina No. 3 in the country. Connor Shaw is a strong "if healthy" quarterback (even though it doesn't seem he's actually healthy that much). The Carolina run game could be in good hands with Mike Davis. A secondary that was banged up last year now has quite a bit of experience. Jadeveon Clowney is Jadeveon Clowney. And perhaps most importantly, the schedule is strangely manageable. South Carolina will play only four teams currently projected in the Top 35, and three must visit Columbia.

If South Carolina is ever going to make a run toward the national title game, it will probably be in 2013, with a manageable schedule and Clowney still in uniform. But I just don't trust the Gamecocks enough to predict that. The early trip to Georgia will test a defense that is still breaking in new pieces, and I don't see South Carolina surviving a three-week October road trip against three competent, potentially interesting teams (Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri) without at least one upset loss. I certainly see the Gamecocks winning double-digit games for the third straight year -- and for a school that had done so only once before 2011, that is a feat that shouldn't be taken for granted -- but I don't see them threatening for the national title.

Of course, if Mike Davis is the real deal, and the linebackers hold up against Georgia on September 7, I might be changing my tune...