College Football

2013 Utah State football's 10 things to know: What happens next?

Utah State was fantastic in 2012, but the Aggies are now tasked with starting over after the loss of both their head coach and defensive coordinator to Wisconsin. Can Matt Wells and a couple of new coordinators keep the momentum going for a team that still has quite a few stars?

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC May 6, 2013, 10:00am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Now what?

Don't pretend like you know what's going to happen next. You don't. Neither do I.

For both Utah State and San Jose State, fortunes have changed dramatically in recent years. Before Gary Andersen, Utah State was basically nonexistent on the football landscape. The Aggies had gone to bowls in 1993 and 1997, sure, and they had certainly made some noise 50 years earlier under eventual Stanford head coach John Ralston (they finished 9-1-1 and 10th in the AP polls in 1961). But they also didn't experience a winning season between 1996 and 2011, and they hadn't ever been ranked since Ralston left for Palo Alto.

In 2012, not only did Utah State finish 16th in the polls and win 11 games (more than former head coach Brent Guy won in four seasons from 2005-08), but the program looked like it belonged, like it had always belonged. With a steady quarterback, an explosive running game, and the best mid-major defense in the country -- at ninth overall in Def. F/+, the Aggies ranked ahead of BYU, Rutgers, TCU, and Notre Dame -- the Aggies had the look and feel of a great team and came within six points of finishing undefeated.

But that was 2012. In 2013, the vast majority of last year's playmakers return, but the makeup on the sideline (and in the booth) is totally different. Gary Andersen, who inherited a team that ranked 105th in F/+ in 2008 and improved from 100th, to 66th, to 17th in his final three seasons, is now the head coach at Wisconsin. Magnificent defensive coordinator Dave Aranda followed Andersen to Madison. Former offensive coordinator Matt Wells, a USU grad, takes over as head coach, and Kevin McGiven (former Montana State offensive coordinator) and Todd Orlando (former UConn and FIU defensive coordinator) are his top assistants.

This could work out swimmingly, of course, but at this point we have no idea. What we do know, however, is that the back half of USU's schedule is filled with enough easy games that, even if Wells is not able to maintain last year's pace, the Aggies should be successful enough to attend a third straight bowl for the first time.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 \| Adj. Record: 13-0 \| Final F/+ Rk: 17
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
30-Aug	Southern Utah	34-3	W	36.8 - 11.9	W
7-Sep	Utah	27-20	W	29.1 - 18.5	W
15-Sep	at Wisconsin	14-16	L	24.8 - 12.5	W
22-Sep	at Colorado State	31-19	W	34.0 - 22.2	W
29-Sep	UNLV	35-13	W	35.3 - 20.3	W
5-Oct	at BYU	3-6	L	24.5 - 19.5	W
13-Oct	at San Jose State	49-27	W	51.6 - 22.6	W
20-Oct	New Mexico State	41-7	W	36.2 - 24.9	W
27-Oct	at UTSA	48-17	W	34.0 - 17.4	W
3-Nov	Texas State	38-7	W	36.8 - 11.8	W
17-Nov	at Louisiana Tech	48-41	W	38.4 - 26.1	W
24-Nov	Idaho	45-9	W	17.7 - 12.9	W
15-Dec	vs. Toledo	41-15	W	40.1 - 14.0	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	34.9	26	15.4	7
Adj. Points Per Game	33.8	30	18.0	6

2. From very good to great

For the first half of the season, Utah State looked, basically, like your typical mid-major upstart. The Aggies took out Utah in what seemed like a more impressive win at the time (as it turned out, Utah wasn't very good), then missed a late field goal that would have beaten eventual Big Ten champion Wisconsin. A competitive win over Colorado State and a tight, no-offense loss to BYU suggested the Aggies were a Top 40 team, but perhaps nothing too much more than that.

Starting with the San Jose State game, however, USU found another gear.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): Utah State 30.8, Opponent 17.5 (plus-13.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 7 games): Utah State 36.4, Opponent 18.5 (plus-17.9)

The defense was tremendous from start to finish, but the offense found its rhythm after struggling so much against BYU. The Aggies gained 485 yards against a pretty good San Jose State defense, then improved their yardage total for another four games in a row: 516 versus New Mexico State, 522 versus UTSA, 593 versus Texas State, and 646 versus Louisiana Tech. By late-November, this was one of the best teams in the country at any level. A whipping of Toledo in the Idaho Potato Bowl just sealed the deal.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	21	30	56	16
RUSHING	26	24	88	8
PASSING	38	37	36	39
Standard Downs		38	71	25
Passing Downs		18	28	16
Redzone		12	17	10

Q1 Rk	45	1st Down Rk	49
Q2 Rk	27	2nd Down Rk	33
Q3 Rk	49	3rd Down Rk	17
Q4 Rk	24

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Chuckie Keeton

6'2, 200

Jr.

** (5.3)

275

407

3,373

67.6%

4.0%

7.7

Craig Harrison

6'2, 208

Jr.

88.9%

10.0%

5.5

Adam Kennedy

100.0%

0.0%

0.0

Jeff Manning

6'4, 200

RSFr.

** (5.2)

Darrell Garretson

6'0, 190

Fr.

*** (5.5)

3. Seriously, how did Chuckie Keeton get out of Texas?

Here's what I said abut Utah State's quarterback last year:

Chuckie Keeton was a successful quarterback at Houston's Cypress Creek high school, but despite decent measurables (6-foot-2, 185 pounds) and lovely stats (961 rushing yards, 2,320 passing yards), he received no major offers, eventually choosing Utah State over Air Force, Memphis, Nevada and Rice. He was given a low two-star rating by Rivals.com. But while Texas quarterbacks with better ratings and bigger offers were either redshirting last year or, in David Ash's case, getting thrown into the fire in Austin, Keeton was completing 61 percent of his passes, avoiding interceptions and rushing for nearly 400 yards for a rock solid offense in Logan, Utah.

In 2012, Utah State's overall offensive ratings sank a bit, mostly because of a couple of games in the first half of the season, but it's hard to pin that on Keeton. The then-sophomore improved his completion percentage from 61 to 68, lowered his sack rate from 5.4 to 4.0, improved his yards-per-attempt from 6.1 to 7.7, and improved his yards-per-carry from 6.3 to 6.5. He struggled against the two best defenses he faced (Wisconsin, BYU), but even in those games he struggled in a "playing it safe" kind of way: 40-for-72 passing for 383 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He is, for the most part, a low-risk quarterback, but if you've got Keeton's legs, you can get away with that.

And when you're sharing the backfield with an outright stud, that's even better.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Kerwynn Williams	RB				218	1,512	6.9	10.0	15	+38.3
Chuckie Keeton	QB	6'2, 200	Jr.	** (5.3)	112	724	6.5	6.4	8	+17.8
Joe Hill	RB	5'11, 185	Jr.	** (5.2)	44	271	6.2	5.8	7	+6.8
Kelvin Lee	RB	5'10, 183	So.	** (5.3)	29	130	4.5	3.4	0	-3.1
Robert Marshall	RB	6'0, 223	Sr.	** (5.4)	17	74	4.4	2.6	0	-1.1
Devonta Glover-Wright	CB	6'0, 170	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	66	5.5	3.2	0	-0.5
Joey DeMartino	RB	5'11, 210	Sr.	NR
Rashad Hall	RB	6'1, 205	Jr.	** (5.2)
Karris Johnson	RB	5'11, 205	Fr.	** (5.4)

4. System vs. Star

It's easy to look at USU's rushing stats from the last couple of seasons and assume that the Aggies had something of a plug-and-play run game. In 2011, Robert Turbin ran for 1,527 yards (6.1 per carry) and scored 19 touchdowns while backups Michael Smith and Kerwynn Williams combined for another 1,397 (7.1 per carry). In 2012, Williams took over and produced numbers nearly identical to Turbin's (1,512 yards, 6.9 per carry, 15 touchdowns) with solid backup play from Joe Hill and Kelvin Lee (401 yards, 5.5 per carry). With Matt Wells taking over as head coach, one could reasonably assume that, with Williams gone, Hill (or whoever) will assume the No. 1 spot and rush for about 1,500 yards. And maybe that ends up being a correct assumption.

But let's not downplay just how explosive Williams was in 2012. With a faulty line ahead of him -- USU's Adj. Line yards ranking sank from 20th in 2011 to 87th in 2012 following the loss of two two-year starters and a three-year starter up front -- Williams didn't get a high percentage of chances to break loose into the secondary. But when he did, he went all the way. Of the 52 FBS players with at least 200 carries in 2012, Williams had the best per-carry Highlight Yardage average, and it wasn't even close.

Highlight Yards Per Carry (running backs with at least 200 carries)
1. Kerwynn Williams (10.0)
2. Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona (7.1)
3. Venric Mark, Northwestern (6.5)
4. Todd Gurley, Georgia (6.5)
5. Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt (6.5)
6. Johnathan Franklin, UCLA (6.4)
7. D.J. Harper, Boise State (6.2)
8. Adam Muema, San Diego State (6.1)
9. Kasey Carrier, New Mexico (5.9)
10. Kendial Lawrence, Missouri (5.8)

With better blocking, Williams could have approached 2,000 yards. Hill certainly showed some solid explosiveness himself, but he didn't show that. The line should improve a bit, but with a new receiving corps (and the issues that might present to the passing game), it might be difficult to approach the same rushing totals from the running back position.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Matt Austin

729

56.5%

8.6

21.3%

62.4%

8.6

97.6

Chuck Jacobs

608

68.3%

10.1

15.0%

61.7%

10.1

81.4

Kerwynn Williams

697

78.9%

12.2

14.3%

56.1%

12.4

93.4

Kellen Bartlett

272

76.0%

5.4

12.5%

72.0%

5.6

36.4

Cameron Webb

273

69.4%

7.6

9.0%

41.7%

7.3

36.6

Travis Reynolds

WR-Z

5'11, 180

Sr.

** (5.2)

244

75.8%

7.4

8.3%

57.6%

7.3

32.7

Bruce Natson

WR-T

5'7, 151

So.

** (5.4)

132

85.0%

6.6

5.0%

70.0%

6.7

17.7

Travis Van Leeuwen

WR-X

6'3, 195

** (5.2)

143

70.6%

8.4

4.3%

70.6%

8.2

19.2

Joe Hill

5'11, 185

Jr.

** (5.2)

181

69.2%

13.9

3.3%

53.8%

14.0

24.2

D.J. Tialavea

6'4, 266

Sr.

** (4.9)

66.7%

3.4

2.3%

77.8%

3.3

4.2

Robert Marshall

6'0, 223

Sr.

** (5.4)

80.0%

6.8

1.3%

60.0%

6.8

4.6

Brandon Swindall

WR-Z

6'4, 194

So.

*** (5.5)

100.0%

6.3

0.8%

33.3%

5.0

2.5

Jordan Jenkins

WR-T

5'10, 199

Jr.

Ronald Butler

6'0, 190

Jr.

** (5.4)

Ryan Watson

6'0, 180

Jr.

** (5.4)

Tyler Fox

5'11, 160

Fr.

** (5.4)

5. Orientation

Meet your new receiving corps, Chuckie Keeton. Keeton's top three targets from 2012 combined to average an explosive 10.1 yards per target last season, but all three are gone, as are No. 4 and No. 5. The top three returnees combined for just 7.4 yards per target, albeit while combining for about five targets per game in complementary roles. Between the lost players and the three new junior college transfers coming in, Keeton is tasked with building a rapport from scratch with his receivers.

Maybe that will work out just fine, but that's pretty scary, especially considering he won't be able to lean on Williams (who, as you'll notice, was also pretty incredible in the pass-catching department).

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.6	2.81	3.18	41.7%	53.7%	20.0%	170.6	3.7%	2.6%
Rank	87	87	64	34	117	82	19	42	13

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Tyler Larsen	C	6'4, 312	Sr.	** (4.9)	38 career starts; 2012 1st All-WAC
Eric Schultz	RT	6'4, 308	Sr.	NR	32 career starts; 2012 1st All-WAC
Jamie Markosian	LG	6'2, 302	Sr.	NR	15 career starts; 2012 2nd All-WAC
Oscar Molina-Sanchez	LT				27 career starts
Kyle Whimpey	RG	6'6, 310	Sr.	NR	13 career starts
Kevin Whimpey	LT	6'5, 300	Jr.	NR	12 career starts
Jorden Mattinson	RT
Bryce Walker	LG	6'8, 310	Jr.	** (5.4)
Joe Summers	C	6'2, 307	Jr.	NR
Logan Molohifo'ou	LT	6'6, 310	So.	NR
Taani Fisilau	LG	6'2, 296	So.	*** (5.6)
Sini Tauauve'a	RG	6'2, 331	Sr.	NR
Jake Simonich	RT	6'5, 278	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Andrew Chen	OL	6'3, 260	Fr.	** (5.4)
Brandon Taukeiaho	OL	6'4, 340	Fr.	** (5.2)

6. More help from the line

Utah State's line held up well against blitzes and created a decent amount of opportunities for Williams overall. But it struggled mightily in short-yardage situations, allowed linemen into the backfield at a pretty high rate in the run game, and, generally speaking, regressed considerably from 2011. That the Aggies claimed three spots on the first- and second-team all-WAC list tells you a lot about the WAC, I guess.

This time around, all five starters return, so one should expect improvement to some degree. But while Gary Andersen proved he could win without a load of stud recruits, he could potentially use a little bit more star power on the line. Four of the five returning starters, and seven of the top 10 returnees overall, weren't even in the Rivals.com database. Experience will help, but the ceiling might not be very high here.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	14	10	15	8
RUSHING	13	30	36	27
PASSING	31	6	5	7
Standard Downs		14	16	12
Passing Downs		11	18	9
Redzone		6	9	6

Q1 Rk	3	1st Down Rk	7
Q2 Rk	24	2nd Down Rk	33
Q3 Rk	48	3rd Down Rk	21
Q4 Rk	11

7. Can the defense hold on?

The USU run game was all-or-nothing, and the offense didn't really pick up the pace until midway through the season, but the defense was ridiculous from the start of the 2012 season. The Aggies showed hints of potential, improving from 102nd to 72nd in Def. F/+ in 2011, but they hadn't hinted at this. A solid run defense (led by an outstanding set of linebackers) combined with a ridiculous pass defense on a unit that really had no weaknesses. The Aggies were No. 3 in the country in the first quarter and No. 11 in the fourth; they were capable of putting you behind schedule without risking big plays.

And now they're in the hands of a completely different head coach and defensive coordinator. Quite a few of the stars return, but how much of the Aggies' success was due to talent, and how much was due to coaching?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.2	2.94	3.25	36.8%	72.7%	18.6%	150.4	5.7%	10.6%
Rank	76	66	65	42	91	78	7	29	13

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Nielsen	DE	6'5, 260	So.	NR	13	24.0	3.2%	6.5	5	0	1	0	0
Connor Williams	DE	6'3, 278	Sr.	NR	13	23.5	3.1%	7	6	0	0	1	0
Al Lapuaho	DE				13	23.5	3.1%	4	3	0	1	1	0
A.J. Pataiali'i	NG	6'3, 307	Sr.	NR	13	15.0	2.0%	2.5	1	0	1	0	1
B.J. Larsen	DE	6'5, 271	Jr.	NR	13	14.0	1.8%	5	4	1	1	0	0
Paul Piukala	DE	6'5, 275	Sr.	*** (5.5)	11	8.0	1.1%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Havea Lasike	NG				13	7.5	1.0%	1.5	1	0	0	0	0
Travis Seefeldt	NG	6'2, 310	So.	** (5.4)	13	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Elvis Kamana-Matagi	NG	6'2, 298	Jr.	** (5.2)	12	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ricky Ali'ifua	NG	6'3, 275	Fr.	** (5.2)

8. Aggression looks good on you

Like the offensive line, the defensive front had little in the way of recruiting prowess. But while that showed a bit in terms of run support -- opponents were able to convert on short-yardage situations pretty easily, and the Aggies did not make that many plays in the backfield against the run -- the Aggie line more than did its job in the pass rush department. Four different linemen had at least three sacks, and five non-linemen had at least two. Due in part to the pressure the line was able to generate, USU was able to blitz and attack from anywhere, confusing offenses and forcing a ton of mistakes.

This year, of the eight players with at least two sacks last year, six return, including a dynamic trio of ends in Jordan Nielsen, Connor Williams, and B.J. Larsen. We'll see if the Aggies can do anything to shore up the run defense, but the pass rush should be as good as ever. And if there's one thing Todd Orlando proved at FIU, it's that he will be quite aggressive if he gets the opportunity.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jake Doughty	ILB	6'0, 230	Sr.	NR	13	72.5	9.6%	3.5	1	1	4	0	1
Zach Vigil	ILB	6'2, 231	Jr.	NR	13	69.5	9.2%	9.5	5.5	0	1	1	0
Kyler Fackrell	OLB	6'5, 245	So.	NR	13	57.5	7.6%	8	3	3	3	1	1
Bojay Filimoeatu	OLB				13	49.5	6.5%	9	5	1	2	1	0
Tavaris McMillian	ILB	6'2, 235	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	29.0	3.8%	5	2	0	2	0	0
Cade Cowdin	ILB				12	20.0	2.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Okonkwo	OLB	6'1, 219	So.	NR	11	4.0	0.5%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Terrell Thompson	OLB	6'1, 220	Sr.	** (5.2)	8	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
La'Bradford Harold	ILB	5'11, 225	So.	*** (5.5)	8	2.0	0.3%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Forrest Dabb	LB				10	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Vigil	ILB	6'2, 230	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Travis Parrish	OLB	6'3, 225	RSFr.	** (5.2)
Keylon Hollis	LB	6'2, 235	Jr.	** (5.2)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
McKade Brady	FS				12	66.0	8.7%	2	0	0	4	1	0
Nevin Lawson	CB	5'10, 186	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	55.0	7.3%	4	2	0	10	0	1
Will Davis	CB				13	55.0	7.3%	4.5	0	5	17	0	0
Brian Suite	SS	6'3, 205	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	51.5	6.8%	0	0	1	6	0	0
Frankie Sutera	FS	6'1, 201	Jr.	NR	13	51.0	6.7%	1	1	0	1	0	0
Maurice Alexander (2011)	FS	6'2, 212	Sr.	** (5.4)	12	36.0	4.7%	7	3	0	1	0	0
Terrence Alston	CB				13	23.0	3.0%	2	1	1	8	0	0
Devonta Glover-Wright	CB	6'0, 170	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	13.0	1.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Sanders	SS	5'11, 190	Sr.	** (4.9)	9	9.0	1.2%	0	0	0	1	0	1
Rashard Stewart	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	** (5.2)	12	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Quinton Byrd	NB	5'10, 181	Sr.	NR	3	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ladale Jackson	NB	5'11, 175	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Marquan Ellison	CB	5'11, 175	RSFr.	** (5.2)
Devin Centers	FS	5'9, 180	RSFr.	NR
Jeremy Morris	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Marwin Evans	CB	6'1, 190	Jr.	** (5.4)

9. Hold the fort at cornerback

Despite the loss of Bojay Filimoeatu, USU linebackers should once again be quite strong, capable of cleaning up a lot of messes in run support and rushing the passer reasonably well. But the Aggies will have to adapt after losing two-thirds of their incredible unit of cornerbacks. Nevin Lawson does return -- and considering how much Orlando liked attacking with his corners at FIU, Lawson should have a hell of a stat line at the end of 2013 -- but USU must replace both Will Davis and Terrence Alston, who combined for 6.5 tackles for loss, six interceptions, and 25 passes defensed last year. Utah State used its deep stable of cornerbacks to great effect, often transitioning into a nickel defense on passing downs last season. But if Orlando wants to do the same, he'll have to count on some unproven newcomers, either or the JUCO or redshirt freshman variety.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Bennett			61	41.9	3	28	33	100.0%
Jaron Bentrude	6'1, 207	Jr.	2	29.0	1	0	0	0.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Jaron Bentrude	6'1, 207	Jr.	71	63.1	26	36.6%
Brock Warren	6'2, 176	RSFr.	6	64.2	1	16.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Nick Diaz	5'8, 193	Jr.	40-40	5-6	83.3%	5-7	71.4%
Josh Thompson	5'9, 191	Sr.	11-12	4-6	66.7%	0-0	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Chuck Jacobs	KR			24	24.1	0
Devonta Glover-Wright	KR			6	19.8	0
Travis Reynolds	KR	5'11, 180	Sr.	4	17.2	0
Cameron Webb	PR			26	8.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	38
Net Punting	36
Net Kickoffs	51
Touchback Pct	65
Field Goal Pct	68
Kick Returns Avg	67
Punt Returns Avg	39

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	at Utah	52
7-Sep	at Air Force	91
14-Sep	Weber State	NR
21-Sep	at USC	17
27-Sep	at San Jose State	72
4-Oct	BYU	27
12-Oct	Boise State	12
19-Oct	at New Mexico	122
2-Nov	Hawaii	100
9-Nov	at UNLV	110
23-Nov	Colorado State	117
30-Nov	Wyoming	109

Five-Year F/+ Rk	79
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	111
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / +9.9
TO Luck/Game	-4.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (7, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-7.5

10. Tests early, wins late

Sometimes a new coaching staff can craft a strong, unexpected identity with the talent it inherits, something that takes opponents a while to figure out. On the other hand, sometimes the new staff takes a while to figure out what it has. Whether Matt Wells leads the former or the latter could decide whether USU starts the season 5-2 or 2-5. The Aggies start the season with a rather cruel four road games in five contests (including trips to Utah, USC, and SJSU), then return home to face what should be strong BYU and Boise State squads. That's brutal. If the Aggies are struggling to get up to speed, then they could find themselves in a hole in mid-October.

Of course, they should then dig right out of that hole. Assuming chemistry hasn't suffered following the losses, Utah State should clean house in its last five games, likely reaching bowl eligibility in the process. And despite the impressive list of returnees, I think bowl eligibility is the correct place to set the bar, even if that seems pretty conservative. The lines aren't great, the receiving corps and secondary got thinned out, one of the most explosive running backs in the country is gone, and the margin for error for players like Chuckie Keeton and the strong defensive ends has disappeared. This will still be a solid team, but the schedule is front-loaded, and there are enough changes on the staff to wonder about a temporary step backwards. I hope I'm proven wrong -- I loved watching this team last season (except against BYU, anyway), and I hope to see a similar squad this fall -- but while I freely admit that I really don't know what to expect here, I'm tamping down my expectations a bit, just in case.