College Football

2013 San Diego State football's 10 things to know: Commitment plus geography

Geography alone suggests that SDSU should always have at least a competitive football program. But until recently that wasn't the case. Commitment and a couple of strong hires have brought the Aztecs to a sustained level of success that they hadn't seen in almost 40 years.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC May 7, 2013, 10:13am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Staying awake

My first 2013 preview was for a team making its FBS debut: Georgia State. In it, I said the following:

The state of Georgia produced more FBS-level players than all but four states. It produced more than Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas and Kansas combined. But while Texas, California, Florida and Ohio all have a multitude of FBS programs large and small, Georgia has just two. Well, Georgia had just two. Now there are three.

Really, if you were building a FBS program from scratch, wouldn't Atlanta be just about the best possible location? Atlanta is for all intents and purposes the capital of college football, and GSU won't have to go far to locate talent.

A couple of weeks after that piece, I published a Q&A with new Colorado (and former San Jose State) head coach Mike MacIntyre and asked him why he took the SJSU job in 2010:

I wasn’t even thinking about it, and they called me. I had been out there recruiting for other schools, but I really started looking at San Jose State then. I realized there were only seven Division I [FBS] schools in California. I felt like the supply and demand, the ability to get players there, was extremely good. I felt we could recruit and be successful.

When it came time to write the San Diego State preview, these two pieces came into my mind for what are probably obvious reasons: San Diego State has almost no excuse to ever stink at football. The resources are all lined up. The school doesn't have to go far to find interesting talent, and while the Aztecs aren't going to beat out USC, UCLA, et cetera, for the top-level guys, the second-level guys are awfully good. With a decent commitment and the right hire, SDSU should be somewhere between competitive and good in most seasons.

The key word there, of course, is "should." SDSU hasn't been very good for much of its FBS history. The Aztecs caught fire in the 1970s, first under Don Coryell, then under Claude Gilbert -- they were ranked in parts of four seasons and lost one or fewer games five times between 1969 and 1977, but they went better than 6-5 just twice in the 1980s and four times in the 1990s, and between 2000 and 2008, Ted Tollner, Tom Craft, and Chuck Long combined to average 3.8 wins per season.

SDSU had been to four bowl games in its history before it hired Brady Hoke in 2009; it has now been to three in a row. Hoke stayed for only two years before moving on to Michigan, but to hire Hoke away from his alma mater (Ball State) in the first place probably required proof of improved commitment, and in replacing him with defensive coordinator (and former New Mexico coach) Rocky Long, the program found a solid combination of commitment and quality hires. It is now reaping the rewards. The Aztecs have been good, average, and good again in the last three years and have almost won more games in three seasons (26) than they had in the previous seven (28), and recruiting has picked up to an impressive degree.

This sleeping (medium-sized) giant appears to be awake. Now it has to prove it can stay awake.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 \| Adj. Record: 9-4 \| Final F/+ Rk: 44
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	at Washington	12-21	L	27.5 - 29.2	L
8-Sep	Army	42-7	W	29.7 - 17.5	W
15-Sep	North Dakota	49-41	W	45.8 - 39.3	W
22-Sep	San Jose State	34-38	L	36.6 - 30.2	W
29-Sep	at Fresno State	40-52	L	32.8 - 40.8	L
6-Oct	Hawaii	52-14	W	29.7 - 22.5	W
13-Oct	Colorado State	38-14	W	39.9 - 25.1	W
20-Oct	at Nevada	39-38	W	22.7 - 23.6	L
27-Oct	UNLV	24-13	W	30.2 - 30.9	L
3-Nov	at Boise State	21-19	W	25.9 - 19.3	W
10-Nov	Air Force	28-9	W	18.7 - 16.8	W
24-Nov	at Wyoming	42-28	W	39.7 - 27.5	W
20-Dec	vs. BYU	6-23	L	22.4 - 16.4	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	32.8	36	24.4	43
Adj. Points Per Game	30.9	45	26.1	47

2. The game changed

When SDSU won nine games in 2010, it was powered by a dynamic, balanced offense that ranked 18th in Off. F/+. The Aztecs regressed on both sides of the ball in 2011 but bounced back last fall, from 66th to 56th in Off. F/+ and from 64th to 36th in Def. F/+. Midway through the 2012 season, however, the balance of a given SDSU game shifted from shootout to grind-it-out.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): SDSU 34.5, Opponent 31.4 (plus-4.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 8 games): SDSU 28.7, Opponent 22.8 (plus-5.9)

Following three straight explosive games (a 49-41 win over North Dakota and losses of 38-34 and 52-40 to SJSU and Fresno State), the Aztec defense began to find its way in the sixth game of the season. Meanwhile, quarterback Ryan Katz was lost for the year early in the Nevada game, and the offense lost its consistency. The result: a few defensive-minded wins over the last half of the season. SDSU beat UNLV by just a 24-13 margin, shut down Air Force, 28-9, and lost the bowl game with former MWC rival BYU by a 23-6 score.

But despite offensive issues, SDSU also scored a program-defining win of sorts: a 21-19 win at Boise State. No, the Boise State of 2012 was not the Boise State we have come to know, but this was still just the second home loss for the Broncos on the blue field since early 2001 (third if you count a 2005 bowl loss to Boston College on that field). It's a big deal. And it showed that, even when beset by a pretty significant injury, the SDSU program was deep enough to not only compete, but potentially beat good teams away from home.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	61	41	36	48
RUSHING	20	25	20	35
PASSING	107	56	55	56
Standard Downs		36	37	33
Passing Downs		65	24	84
Redzone		65	56	74

Q1 Rk	66	1st Down Rk	37
Q2 Rk	31	2nd Down Rk	63
Q3 Rk	33	3rd Down Rk	44
Q4 Rk	60

3. Doubling down on the run

Despite the loss of running back Ronnie Hillman to the Denver Broncos, SDSU went extremely run-heavy in 2012. They did so even more in the latter half of the season, with the backup quarterback in charge and an improved defense in their back pocket. The Aztecs' nearly 50-50 run-pass split on passing downs was one of the highest ratios in the country; among non-Flexbone teams, SDSU ran less frequently than only four teams (New Mexico, Oregon, Ohio State, Northwestern) on such downs. With explosive running back Adam Muema leading the charge, SDSU was able to protect its backup and stay out of third-and-long disasters, surviving to see another possession.

It's not immediately clear that things will be any different this time around. That improved defense could be even better in 2013, and Muema returns. Plus, SDSU's top two safety-valve receiving options -- tight end Gavin Escobar and receiver Brice Butler -- are gone.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Ryan Katz

163

1,348

60.7%

12.4%

6.5

Adam Dingwell

6'4, 210

Jr.

** (5.4)

144

939

57.6%

7.7%

5.6

Chad Jeffries

6'2, 200

So.

*** (5.7)

Darryl Richardson

6'5, 220

Fr.

*** (5.5)

4. Do your line some favors

For SDSU's system, Ryan Katz was a pretty good quarterback. He wasn't great, but he was safe in the passing game, with a suitably low interception rate, and he chose good times to tuck and run with the ball, averaging 9.1 yards per carry over about six to seven carries per game (not including sacks). He was solid in the play-action, and he seemed to be a good fit overall.

But wow, did he take a lot of sacks. If he hadn't broken his ankle against Nevada, he'd have quite possibly ended up getting sacked a Tino Sunseri-esque 40+ times. When Dingwell took over, he dropped that sack rate a bit, but he was also a lot less effective throwing the ball, and any sack rate over about five percent means you're taking too many hits. His sack rate was still 7.7 percent.

It appears Dingwell will be the starter this fall, and despite the presence of a new offensive coordinator (Bob Toledo; yes, that Bob Toledo), one can expect another heavy dose of the ground game. But Dingwell is still going to have to pass, and his ability to avoid sacks and prevent disasters will be a determining factor in just how much SDSU can get away with running the ball and moving the chains. SDSU's line had downright awesome rankings on the ground -- this may have been the best mid-major line in the country in terms of run-blocking -- and awful rankings in pass protection, but when the ranks are that far apart, you can probably pin some of the Sack Rate, for better or worse, on the quarterback. For SDSU in 2012, that was very much worse.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Adam Muema	RB	5'10, 205	Jr.	*** (5.6)	237	1,458	6.2	6.1	16	+24.8
Walter Kazee	RB				161	822	5.1	4.0	8	-2.5
Ryan Katz	QB				46	417	9.1	9.1	4	+15.7
Adam Dingwell	QB	6'4, 210	Jr.	** (5.4)	31	170	5.5	3.4	1	+0.6
Chase Price	RB	5'8, 200	So.	** (5.4)	29	114	3.9	2.8	1	-3.3
Dwayne Garrett	RB	6'0, 205	So.	*** (5.5)	7	30	4.3	1.5	0	-1.0
Donnell Pumphrey	RB	5'9, 170	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Gavin Escobar

543

62.7%

8.1

22.9%

65.7%

8.0

87.3

Brice Butler

WR-X

347

48.0%

6.9

17.1%

54.0%

7.1

55.8

Colin Lockett

WR-Z

6'0, 180

Sr.

** (5.1)

293

52.6%

7.7

13.0%

47.4%

8.3

47.1

Ezell Ruffin

WR-X

6'1, 205

Jr.

** (5.4)

319

50.0%

9.4

11.6%

67.6%

9.0

51.3

Dominique Sandifer

WR-X

247

71.0%

8.0

10.6%

58.1%

7.8

39.7

Chad Young

5'10, 230

Sr.

108

100.0%

6.0

6.1%

77.8%

6.1

17.4

Tim Vizzi

WR-Z

5'10, 170

Sr.

** (5.3)

81.8%

8.8

3.8%

36.4%

11.1

15.6

Dylan Denso

WR-Z

6'2, 205

Sr.

40.0%

6.3

3.4%

50.0%

6.3

10.1

Adam Muema

5'10, 205

Jr.

*** (5.6)

147

100.0%

16.3

3.1%

100.0%

9.9

23.6

Walter Kazee

66.7%

4.6

3.1%

77.8%

4.2

6.6

D.J. Shields

75.0%

7.0

2.7%

75.0%

6.4

9.0

Adam Roberts

6'3, 235

Jr.

** (5.4)

75.0%

5.8

1.4%

100.0%

3.5

3.7

Chase Price

5'8, 200

So.

** (5.4)

-2

33.3%

-0.7

1.0%

33.3%

-1.2

-0.3

Julius Wilson

6'1, 175

Fr.

*** (5.7)

David Wells

6'5, 220

Fr.

*** (5.5)

5. A more explosive passing game?

When SDSU did pass in 2012, there were basically two options: dump short to Escobar, receiver Dominique Sandifer, or fullback Chad Young; or go long to Brice Butler, Colin Lockett, or Ezell Ruffin.

Escobar, Sandifer, and Young: 8.9 targets per game, 71 percent catch rate, 11.0 yards per catch
Butler, Lockett, and Ruffin: 9.4 targets per game, 50 percent catch rate, 15.7 yards per catch

Two-thirds of the efficiency options (Escobar and Sandifer) are now gone, and while Young returns, there is a chance that Locket and Ruffin are the leaders of the new receiving corps. In players like Tim Vizzi (82 percent catch rate in 2012), Dylan Denso (61 percent in 2011), and potentially tight end Adam Roberts, there are still some efficiency options, but there is at least a chance that, between the experience on hand and the new coordinator in the booth, SDSU's passing game goes longer, more frequently, in 2013. Of course, aggressive passing means more sacks, so ... we'll see.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.9	3.21	3.83	44.7%	79.6%	17.9%	60.3	9.6%	12.3%
Rank	21	19	11	10	7	45	117	122	118

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Nik Embernate	RG				46 career starts; 2012 1st All-MWC
Alec Johnson	C				42 career starts; 2012 2nd All-MWC
Bryce Quigley	LT	6'5, 295	Sr.	*** (5.5)	25 career starts
Zack Dilley	RT	6'5, 295	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13 career starts
Riley Gauld	LT				7 career starts
Japheth Gordon	LG	6'3, 295	Sr.	NR	7 career starts
Jordan Smith	OL	6'5, 270	So.	*** (5.5)	1 career start
Jimmy Miller	RG
Paul Rodriguez	RT	6'7, 285	So.	** (5.4)
Nico Siragusa	RG	6'5, 315	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Kwayde Miller	LT	6'7, 305	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Austin Maass	C	6'4, 270	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Arthur Flores	RT	6'5, 300	RSFr.	** (5.3)
Lenicio Noble	OL	6'2, 285	Jr.	** (5.3)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	39	48	51	46
RUSHING	29	31	31	33
PASSING	66	55	83	46
Standard Downs		40	54	30
Passing Downs		67	60	70
Redzone		71	84	63

Q1 Rk	46	1st Down Rk	31
Q2 Rk	51	2nd Down Rk	77
Q3 Rk	68	3rd Down Rk	70
Q4 Rk	70

6. Opponents knew to pass

Two things were certain in SDSU games: SDSU was going to run, and opponents weren't. The Aztecs and their 3-3-5 attack were stout on the ground, reeling in Top 40 rankings in Rushing S&P+ and all of its breakout components, but while they were also able to rush the passer pretty well, their bend-don't-break pass defense bent quite a bit. And while SDSU returns almost everybody -- seriously, this front six could be really, really good -- the primary losses are at corner, where both Josh Wade and, more importantly, third-round draft pick Leon McFadden must be replaced. McFadden defensed 15 passes in 2012, while returning CBs managed just six. If the secondary was a bit passive with McFadden, it probably will be without him, too.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.3	2.72	3.06	35.7%	75.0%	22.5%	118.8	5.6%	8.3%
Rank	30	32	44	27	106	25	34	31	33

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Sam Meredith

6'4, 275

Jr.

*** (5.5)

28.5

3.9%

5.5

Cody Galea

6'3, 265

Jr.

** (5.4)

17.5

2.4%

3.5

2.5

Jon Sanchez

6'2, 265

So.

*** (5.5)

16.0

2.2%

Jordan Thomas

6'1, 255

Sr.

*** (5.5)

14.5

2.0%

5.5

Dan Kottman

6'1, 245

So.

** (5.3)

9.0

1.2%

1.5

Everett Beed

6'3, 255

Jr.

*** (5.5)

8.5

1.2%

4.5

Dontrel Onuoha

6'2, 265

Jr.

*** (5.6)

7.0

1.0%

Frederick Trujillo

5.0

0.7%

Robert Craighead

6'3, 265

So.

** (5.3)

2.5

0.3%

Alex Barrett

6'3, 245

RSFr.

** (5.4)

Teddy Queen

6'1, 245

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Malcolm Jackson

6'3, 255

RSFr.

** (5.4)

Fred Melifonwu

6'5, 210

Fr.

*** (5.6)

7. Slice and dice

SDSU was undersized up front in 2012 -- in a three-man line, you typically want your primary tackle to be bigger than 275 pounds -- and it showed: in short-yardage situation, you could push SDSU around pretty well (106th in Power Success Rate).

But the Aztecs had a quickness advantage that got them out of facing too many short-yardage situations. SDSU was 25th in Stuff Rate (negative plays against the run) and 27th in Opportunity Rate (downfield opportunities allowed for opposing running backs), and almost every reason for these stellar rankings returns. Of the 12 players who logged at least 2.5 tackles for loss in 2012, an amazing 11 return, including active ends Sam Meredith, Jordan Thomas, and Everett Beed and what might be the most effectively active set of mid-major linebackers in the country.

Linebackers

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Jake Fely

MLB

5'10, 210

Jr.

*** (5.5)

79.0

10.8%

11.5

Derek Largent

OLB

6'4, 235

Jr.

49.5

6.8%

9.5

6.5

Nick Tenhaeff

OLB

6'2, 225

Sr.

** (5.1)

45.0

6.2%

Vaness Harris

OLB

6'2, 255

Sr.

** (5.3)

28.0

3.8%

Josh Gavert

OLB

6'2, 220

Jr.

*** (5.5)

21.0

2.9%

Rob Andrews

MLB

16.0

2.2%

Scott Graves

MLB

5'10, 210

Sr.

8.5

1.2%

Jacob Driver

MLB

6'2, 220

Sr.

** (5.3)

7.5

1.0%

Ryan Jack

OLB

6'0, 215

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Micah Seau

OLB

6'3, 235

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

D.J. Hunter

OLB

6'0, 210

RSFr.

Marcus Stamps

6'1, 195

Fr.

*** (5.5)

8. Attack, attack, attack

SDSU's top three backup linebackers recorded 11 tackles for loss in 2012. Honestly, I've seen worse totals from some of the starters for the teams I've previewed so far. But SDSU's three starters combined for a downright ridiculous 34 TFLs, 17.5 sacks, seven passes defensed, four forced fumbles, and five fumble recoveries. This unit has experience and depth, and now it has some interesting three-star youngsters waiting in the wings as well. This front six is all sorts of exciting.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nat Berhe	AZTEC	5'10, 190	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	81.0	11.1%	2	0	2	5	0	1
Eric Pinkins	WAR	6'3, 215	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	55.5	7.6%	7	2	3	2	0	1
Leon McFadden	CB				13	53.5	7.3%	2	0	3	12	1	0
Josh Wade	CB				13	34.0	4.7%	2.5	0	0	1	1	1
King Holder	CB	5'10, 165	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	31.5	4.3%	2.5	1	1	5	0	0
Gabe Lemon	WAR	5'10, 195	Sr.	** (5.3)	12	26.5	3.6%	2.5	1	0	2	0	0
Rene Siluano	WAR	5'10, 180	Sr.	** (5.4)	8	23.5	3.2%	2	0	1	1	1	0
Marcus Andrews	WAR	6'0, 190	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	23.0	3.1%	0	0	1	4	0	1
Pierre Romain	CB	5'8, 165	So.	NR	13	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darius Guillory	AZTEC	5'10, 185	So.	*** (5.5)	13	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
David Lamar	CB	6'2, 180	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Wright	WAR	5'11, 205	So.	*** (5.7)	12	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	CB	5'11, 175	So.	** (5.4)
Kendrick Mathis	WAR	6'0, 195	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Kalan Montgomery	DB	6'1, 170	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Tyler Morris	DB	6'3, 205	Fr.	*** (5.5)

9. Experience, I guess

The "5" part of SDSU's 3-3-5 defense is the most worrisome. You've got basically a fourth linebacker in WAR safety Eric Pinkins doing linebacker things (seven tackles for loss, five passes defensed), but while the safety position as a whole seems to be in good shape, the losses of McFadden and Wade could be tough to overcome. King Holder was actually more aggressive and interesting than Wade last year, but the only other returning corners combined for just 14.0 tackles in minimal playing time. It's impossible to know what SDSU has here, but whatever it is, it might hold the defense back as a whole.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Seamus McMorrow	5'11, 190	So.	41	41.7	7	9	13	53.7%
Joel Alesi	6'0, 235	Jr.	6	43.5	0	4	1	83.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Seamus McMorrow	5'11, 190	So.	68	62.8	33	48.5%
Wes Feer	5'11, 205	Sr.	5	54.0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Chance Marden			51-52	8-10	80.0%	2-4	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Colin Lockett	KR	6'0, 180	Sr.	30	25.9	2
Brandon Wright	KR	5'11, 205	So.	10	20.8	0
Tim Vizzi	PR	5'10, 170	Sr.	13	7.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	41
Net Punting	76
Net Kickoffs	61
Touchback Pct	38
Field Goal Pct	65
Kick Returns Avg	24
Punt Returns Avg	76

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Eastern Illinois	NR
7-Sep	at Ohio State	10
21-Sep	Oregon State	25
28-Sep	at New Mexico State	123
4-Oct	Nevada	74
10-Oct	at Air Force	91
26-Oct	Fresno State	60
2-Nov	New Mexico	122
9-Nov	at San Jose State	72
16-Nov	at Hawaii	100
23-Nov	Boise State	12
30-Nov	at UNLV	110

Five-Year F/+ Rk	77
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	86
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+1 / +3.4
TO Luck/Game	-0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (7, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-3.1

10. Book the fourth straight bowl

When the 2013 season ends, it is quite likely that SDSU will have attended as many bowls since 2010 (four) as it did from 1969 to 2009. This is going to be a good team. It will be limited by its passing game and pass defense, but the run and run D will be good enough to fend off what is, as customary in the MWC this year, a schedule loaded with what I will politely call winnable games. SDSU plays six teams projected 90th or worse this season and plays host to four of the six teams projected better than that. Beat Oregon State on September 21, and you're potentially looking at a run toward a 10-win season, but even with a loss, seven or more wins is quite likely.

It's impressive how quickly we've become used to this. In terms of five-year averages, SDSU has already established itself as the Mountain West's No. 2 program behind Boise State, and momentum and recent history suggest that the Aztecs aren't really in the mood to go any lower than that. Brady Hoke planted the seeds, Rocky Long has managed the garden nicely (he's even thrown in some algorithm work just to melt my heart cockles), and the future is, like San Diego itself, quite sunny.