2013 Boise State football's 10 things to know: Back on the ascent

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1. Beginning again

For Boise State, the 2012 season was about taking a breath. After setting off on an absurd path of destruction for four years (50-3 from 2008-11), the Broncos lost nearly every starter last fall, replaced yet another offensive coordinator, and basically had to re-learn how to win football games with a new cast of characters.

This is a Chris Petersen team, of course; the Broncos did alright. They fell to No. 21 in the F/+ rankings (their lowest ranking since No. 36 in 2007) and only won 10 games, but now a likely ascent begins again.

The ascent might only be minor in 2013, however. This very much strikes me as a Top 15-20 team, but perhaps nothing more. Boise State has been thinned out considerably on its defensive front, and the offensive line still needs to prove it can open up running lanes better than it did in 2012.

But make no mistake: This program is still the class of the mid-major universe. The Broncos could get a stiff challenge from either San Diego State or Fresno State (or both) in-conference this year, but they passed a major test last year by simply surviving and continuing to play at a high level. They'll do so again in 2013.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 21
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
31-Aug	at Michigan State	13-17	L	21.0 - 32.2	L
15-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	39-12	W	38.1 - 19.2	W
20-Sep	BYU	7-6	W	21.5 - 14.1	W
29-Sep	at New Mexico	32-29	W	34.4 - 31.2	W
6-Oct	at Southern Miss	40-14	W	22.6 - 31.0	L
13-Oct	Fresno State	20-10	W	36.8 - 15.9	W
20-Oct	UNLV	32-7	W	29.6 - 10.7	W
27-Oct	at Wyoming	45-14	W	32.6 - 19.2	W
3-Nov	San Diego State	19-21	L	24.6 - 18.0	W
10-Nov	at Hawaii	49-14	W	30.3 - 22.9	W
17-Nov	Colorado State	42-14	W	44.8 - 16.6	W
1-Dec	at Nevada	27-21	W	33.7 - 28.7	W
22-Dec	vs. Washington	28-26	W	29.3 - 33.1	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	30.2	54	15.8	8
Adj. Points Per Game	30.7	49	22.5	20

2. Some close-game practice

If nothing else, Boise State got a taste of what it's like to actually have to play competitive games in 2012. That experience cannot hurt moving forward. In the previous five seasons, the Broncos had played in a total of just 10 games decided by one possession; they fared perfectly well in these games, going 6-4, but in 2012 alone, they played six such games, going 4-2. Tight losses to Michigan State and San Diego State prevented this from being another extraordinarily successful season, but tight wins over BYU, New Mexico, Nevada, and Washington kept the win total in double digits for the seventh consecutive year and for the 10th time in 11 seasons.

The offense picked up steam late in the year, just in time for the injury-addled defense to lose some of its own.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 9 games): Boise State 29.0, Opponent 21.3 (plus-7.7)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Boise State 34.5, Opponent 25.3 (plus-9.2)

Again, though, 2012 was just about surviving and regrouping. Boise State did that. Now let's see what the Broncos have moving forward.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	68	31	23	35
RUSHING	56	51	57	44
PASSING	71	22	5	34
Standard Downs		23	27	21
Passing Downs		51	22	63
Redzone		55	43	59

Q1 Rk	39	1st Down Rk	25
Q2 Rk	15	2nd Down Rk	43
Q3 Rk	46	3rd Down Rk	52
Q4 Rk	101

3. Need six yards, get six yards

To be sure, Boise State missed quarterback Kellen Moore's ridiculous precision last fall. But while the Broncos' efficiency numbers went down (from ninth in Success Rate+ to 23rd), it was their explosiveness that suffered more in replacing not only Moore, but also running back Doug Martin, receiver Tyler Shoemaker, and company.

This was especially true in the passing game, where Boise State sank only from second to fifth in Passing Success Rate+ but from 14th to 34th in Passing PPP+. Only one of quarterback Joe Southwick's top six targets averaged better than 8.0 yards per target, and that was low-efficiency tight end Holden Huff at just 8.6. Shoemaker had averaged 10.5 per target in leading the 2011 receiving corps; you could pretty easily make the case that Boise State missed Shoemaker more than Martin.

When Boise State needed six yards on third-and-6, it got six yards and nothing more. There weren't enough big plays to maintain an elite level of offensive play. With sophomore running back Jay Ajayi coming into his own (he appears to have D.J. Harper-before-the-17-knee-injuries potential), and with one more year for potential to meet production for intriguing senior receivers Aaron Burks and Geraldo Boldewijn, we should see improved explosiveness numbers for BSU. How much improvement remains to be seen.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp Rate

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Joe Southwick

6'1, 202

Sr.

*** (5.6)

248

371

2,730

66.8%

19

7

7

1.9%

7.1

Grant Hedrick

6'0, 200

Jr.

*** (5.7)

12

17

116

70.6%

0

0

2

10.5%

5.3

Nick Patti

5'10, 200

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

Ryan Finley

6'4, 185

Fr.

*** (5.6)

4. Get in line (at quarterback)

Until this week's announcement that sophomore quarterback Jimmy Laughrea had left the team, Boise State had a perfect totem pole of three-star quarterbacks waiting their turn, one per class. Regardless, there are now only four interesting quarterbacks on the roster, three of whom will likely spend another year behind incumbent Joe Southwick, who suffered in comparison to the incomparable Kellen Moore but held his own for the most part, especially late in the season.

His 67 percent completion rate would be great anywhere other than Boise (where Moore completed 74 percent in 2011), and after some shaky early performances (15-for-30 with a pick against Michigan State, 11-for-22 with a TD and a pick against Fresno State), he was mostly strong down the stretch. In his last four games, he completed 79 of 113 passes (70 percent) for 888 yards, nine touchdowns, and no interceptions. That's not only acceptable, but good. Plus, he accounted for over half of his season rushing yardage in the final two games. If he gets hurt, Boise State has plenty of other options, but it appears he'll have to get hurt to lose his starting job.

Otto Kitsinger III/Getty Images

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
D.J. Harper	RB				228	1,126	4.9	6.2	15	+6.0
Jay Ajayi	RB	6'0, 215	So.	*** (5.6)	82	548	6.7	6.4	4	+12.7
Jack Fields	RB	5'9, 198	So.	*** (5.5)	43	135	3.1	1.2	0	-9.0
Joe Southwick	QB	6'1, 202	Sr.	*** (5.6)	39	152	3.9	2.6	0	-3.5
Shane Williams-Rhodes	WR	5'6, 158	So.	*** (5.6)	21	97	4.6	4.9	2	+0.9
Drew Wright	RB				18	67	3.7	2.9	0	-3.5
Grant Hedrick	QB	6'0, 200	Jr.	*** (5.7)	17	47	2.8	7.7	3	-4.5
Chris Potter	WR				7	34	4.9	5.4	1	+0.7
Derrick Thomas	RB	6'1, 210	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Aaron Baltazar	RB	5'9, 161	Fr.	*** (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Matt Miller	WR	6'3, 218	Jr.	*** (5.7)	96	66	769	68.8%	8.0	25.5%	59.4%	8.0	135.4
Kirby Moore	WR	6'3, 206	Sr.	*** (5.5)	50	36	368	72.0%	7.4	13.3%	58.0%	7.4	64.8
Chris Potter	WR				46	34	347	73.9%	7.5	12.2%	65.2%	7.5	61.1
Holden Huff	TE	6'5, 221	So.	** (5.2)	29	17	250	58.6%	8.6	7.7%	55.2%	8.6	44.0
D.J. Harper	RB				29	23	163	79.3%	5.6	7.7%	51.7%	5.7	28.7
Geraldo Boldewijn	WR	6'4, 215	Sr.	NR	28	18	197	64.3%	7.0	7.4%	42.9%	7.8	34.7
Shane Williams-Rhodes	WR	5'6, 158	So.	*** (5.6)	26	25	142	96.2%	5.5	6.9%	88.5%	5.7	25.0
Aaron Burks	WR	6'3, 200	Sr.	** (5.3)	25	17	319	68.0%	12.8	6.6%	68.0%	12.3	56.2
Mitch Burroughs	WR				19	12	124	63.2%	6.5	5.1%	47.4%	6.1	21.8
Dallas Burroughs	WR	5'8, 171	Jr.	** (5.4)	9	4	100	44.4%	11.1	2.4%	66.7%	10.1	17.6
Dan Paul	FB				6	3	25	50.0%	4.2	1.6%	100.0%	2.5	4.4
Gabe Linehan	TE	6'4, 238	Sr.	** (5.4)	4	1	23	25.0%	5.8	1.1%	50.0%	7.0	4.1
Hayden Plinke	TE				2	2	20	100.0%	10.0	0.5%	100.0%	6.0	3.5
Jake Roh	TE	6'2, 215	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Alec Dhaenens	TE	6'4, 240	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Tanner Shipley	WR	6'1, 180	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	97.4	2.95	2.82	35.5%	62.5%	21.3%	316.5	2.1%	1.4%
Rank	80	69	96	101	94	99	4	16	4

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Matt Paradis	C	6'3, 293	Sr.	NR	14 career starts; 2012 1st All-MWC
Charles Leno, Jr.	LT	6'4, 294	Sr.	*** (5.5)	26 career starts; 2012 2nd All-MWC
Brenel Myers	RT				12 career starts; 2012 2nd All-MWC
Joe Kellogg	LG				33 career starts
Michael Ames	RG				9 career starts
Spencer Gerke	RG	6'3, 297	Sr.	** (5.3)	8 career starts
Jake Broyles	RT	6'5, 299	Sr.	** (5.4)	4 career starts
Rees Odhiambo	OL	6'4, 309	So.	*** (5.5)
Marcus Henry	OL	6'3, 296	So.	** (5.4)
Travis Averill	OL	6'3, 292	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Andrew Tercek	OL	6'0, 275	Fr.	*** (5.5)

5. Bouncing back up front

Boise State's quick, precise passing attack is always going to produce a strong sack rate; defensive linemen just don't have enough time to get to the quarterback. Boise State ranked first in Adj. Sack Rate in 2011 and sank only to fourth last fall.

But an iffy set of run blockers (65th in Adj. Line Yards in 2011) got iffier with the loss of two all-conference, three-year starters, sinking to an unacceptable 80th in Adj. Line Yards. The line just wasn't very good at anything related to the ground game -- 101st in Opportunity Rate (creating downfield opportunities for your runners), 99th in Stuff Rate (negative plays on the ground), 94th in Power Success Rate (short yardage opportunities).

This not only must improve, but it must improve while replacing three more starters. Perhaps the two best linemen return, and two other seniors could be in line to start, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if some new blood like Travis Averill worked into the rotation. For what it's worth, it appears sophomores Rees Odhiambo and Marcus Henry looked good this spring.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	12	22	41	15
RUSHING	47	43	51	37
PASSING	5	20	40	14
Standard Downs		19	37	13
Passing Downs		41	56	35
Redzone		84	103	51

Q1 Rk	14	1st Down Rk	21
Q2 Rk	16	2nd Down Rk	36
Q3 Rk	90	3rd Down Rk	72
Q4 Rk	77

6. Move 'em up

During Boise State's 50-wins-in-four-years run, Kellen Moore and the offense got the lion's share of the attention; and that's fine. It really was a clinical offense. But the defense actually graded out better than the offense in all four years of that run. Tasked with replacing five of the top six on the line, two of the top three at linebacker, and four of the top five in the secondary, the Broncos did sink a bit defensively in 2012, from an average Def. F/+ ranking of 7.5 over the previous four years to 17th in 2012. But sinking to 17th isn't exactly an embarrassment, and I just cannot worry too much about this unit, even as it goes about replacing a few more interesting pieces in 2013.

One did have reason to question the overall depth in 2012 (look at the per-quarter defensive rankings above), but there is potential everywhere you look on this defense, from ends Demarcus Lawrence and Tyler Horn, to linebackers Tyler Gray and Ben Weaver, to tackle Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe, to young safeties Jeremy Ioane and Darian Thompson. The defense will be fine; it probably won't be as good as it had been, at least not until we see some of these younger plays step up, but it will be fine.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.4	2.78	2.99	36.3%	70.8%	17.9%	131.6	9.3%	7.6%
Rank	27	40	39	38	84	85	22	1	45

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Demarcus Lawrence	DE	6'3, 244	Jr.	*** (5.7)	11	36.0	4.8%	13.5	9.5	1	0	4	2
Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe	DT	6'3, 303	Sr.	** (5.1)	12	27.5	3.7%	4.5	2.5	0	2	0	2
Mike Atkinson	NT				9	27.5	3.7%	3.5	1.5	1	0	2	1
Samuel Ukwuachu	DE				13	25.5	3.4%	7	4.5	0	1	1	3
Darren Koontz	DT				13	24.0	3.2%	5.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Greg Grimes	NT				13	19.0	2.6%	2	1	0	2	1	0
Tyler Horn	DE	6'5, 264	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	18.0	2.4%	8.5	5	0	1	1	3
Kharyee Marshall	DE	6'2, 240	Sr.	*** (5.5)	11	13.0	1.7%	1.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Beau Martin	DE	6'2, 258	Jr.	** (5.1)	12	11.0	1.5%	4.5	2.5	0	2	1	1
Armand Nance	DT	6'0, 290	So.	** (5.4)	8	6.5	0.9%	2.5	1	0	0	0	0
Darien Barrett	DE	6'2, 233	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Elliot Hoyte	DT	6'4, 279	RSFr.	** (5.2)
Justin Taimatuia	DT	5'11, 295	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Deuce Mataele	DT	6'3, 285	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Kamalei Correa	DE	6'2, 230	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Nick Terry	DT	6'3, 275	Fr.	*** (5.5)

7. Thinned out a bit

That said, the depth up front is a particular concern. Starting end Sam Ukwuachu was dismissed from the program this week, leaving behind an intriguing trio of Lawrence, Tjong-A-Tjoe, and Horn, but almost no proven production beyond those three. Because of Lawrence and Horn, tackle will be the bigger concern -- the defense took a definitive step backwards when star Mike Atkinson went down last season, and now Boise State must replace two of the guys who helped replace Atkinson. Between Armand Namce, Elliot Hoyte, and a pair of junior college transfers (including mid-year enrollee Deuce Mataele, who had his moments this spring), at least a couple of disruptive options need to emerge.

The Boise State line of previous years was as dominant as any in the country. There is potentially some elite talent here, but is there enough of it?

If the line holds up, the rest of the defense should fill out pretty well despite attrition. Both starting linebackers are gone, but Blake Renaud saw plenty of time last season, Tyler Gray worked his way into the rotation as a freshman, Ben Weaver was the scout team MVP last year, and three exciting freshmen join the mix. In Boise's 4-2-5 setup (where the nickel back almost counts as both a linebacker and a safety), the linebackers' jobs are basically to clean up messes and direct traffic. I think this unit will do that just fine.

If there's a concern outside of tackle, it comes at cornerback, where both Jamar Taylor and Jerrell Gavins must be replaced. Donte Deayon was a spring game star, and it appears there is a wealth of options, but none of those options made an impact last year. To say the least, that will have to change.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
J.C. Percy	WLB				13	94.0	12.6%	3.5	1	0	1	1	1
Tommy Smith	MLB				13	47.0	6.3%	4	1	0	3	0	0
Blake Renaud	LB	6'2, 249	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	36.0	4.8%	0.5	0	0	3	1	0
Tyler Gray	LB	6'4, 223	So.	*** (5.6)	13	18.5	2.5%	0.5	0	1	0	0	0
Dustin Kamper	LB	6'1, 232	Sr.	NR	6	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Travis Saxton	LB	6'1, 220	Jr.	NR	11	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ben Weaver	LB	6'0, 233	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Tanner Vallejo	LB	6'2, 220	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Joe Martarano	LB	6'3, 235	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Mat Boesen	LB	6'4, 220	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jeremy Ioane	FS	5'10, 189	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	55.0	7.4%	2	0	3	2	1	0
Jamar Taylor	CB				13	41.0	5.5%	3.5	2.5	4	9	3	0
Darian Thompson	SS	6'1, 201	So.	*** (5.5)	13	35.5	4.8%	0	0	3	3	0	1
Corey Bell	NB	5'11, 208	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	33.5	4.5%	0.5	0	0	0	0	1
Dextrell Simmons	NB				10	29.5	4.0%	2.5	1	1	3	0	0
Lee Hightower	SS				7	24.0	3.2%	2	0	1	1	1	0
Jerrell Gavins	CB				13	23.0	3.1%	1	0	2	4	0	1
Bryan Douglas	CB	5'9, 170	Jr.	*** (5.5)	8	15.5	2.1%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Donte Deayon	CB	5'9, 151	So.	*** (5.5)	5	14.0	1.9%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Dillon Lukehart	S	6'0, 202	So.	** (5.4)	13	11.5	1.5%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Jonathan Brown	NB	5'10, 215	Sr.	*** (5.5)	8	8.5	1.1%	1	1	0	1	1	0
Ebo Makinde	CB	5'10, 179	Sr.	*** (5.6)	10	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chaz Anderson	CB	5'10, 183	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Christopher Santini	NB	5'11, 222	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Mercy Maston	CB	5'10, 190	Jr.	** (5.4)
Cleshawn Page	CB	5'10, 190	Jr.	** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Trevor Harman	6'3, 207	Sr.	42	41.2	7	7	8	35.7%
Joe Southwick	6'1, 202	Sr.	7	29.9	1	0	5	71.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Trevor Harman	6'3, 207	Sr.	56	60.6	10	17.9%
Dan Goodale	5'10, 193	Jr.	21	54	4	19.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Michael Frisina			42-44	15-18	83.3%	0-2	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Shane Wiilliams-Rhodes	KR	5'6, 158	So.	13	24.9	0
D.J. Harper	KR			7	26.9	0
Dallas Burroughs	KR	5'8, 171	Jr.	2	30.5	0
Chris Potter	PR			24	11.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	52
Net Punting	111
Net Kickoffs	106
Touchback Pct	107
Field Goal Pct	45
Kick Returns Avg	5
Punt Returns Avg	35

8. Hit or miss

Boise State's long-standing kicking problems took a step forward in 2012, with Michael Frisina at least proving pretty reliable inside 40 yards. But Frisina's gone now, and that won't help stabilize what was an all-or-nothing unit. Scatback Shane Williams-Rhodes has all sorts of potential as a kick returner, but Trevor Harman wasn't that great as either a punter or a kickoffs guy, and punt returner extraordinaire Chris Potter is gone.

Special teams have played a role in most of Boise State's recent losses -- San Diego State returned a kickoff for a touchdown in 2012, and missed field goals haunted BSU against both TCU in 2011 and Nevada in 2010 -- and this unit looks just shaky enough to rear its ugly head again in 2013.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Washington	45
7-Sep	UT-Martin	NR
13-Sep	Air Force	91
20-Sep	at Fresno State	60
28-Sep	Southern Miss	87
12-Oct	at Utah State	46
19-Oct	Nevada	74
25-Oct	at BYU	27
2-Nov	at Colorado State	117
16-Nov	Wyoming	109
23-Nov	at San Diego State	53
30-Nov	New Mexico	122

Five-Year F/+ Rk	2
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	68
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+20 / +17.2
TO Luck/Game	+1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (6, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-7.1

9. The best teams on the road

Boise State's schedule, at first glance, isn't particularly impressive. The Broncos play only one team projected in the F/+ Top 40 -- No. 27 BYU -- and the non-conference schedule doesn't feature an elite team like it has in previous seasons. But wow, are the home-road splits troubling. All four of the projected Top 60 opponents on the schedule will play host to Boise State this fall, and this team is just thin enough that I don't think it will survive those trips undefeated.

In all, I do think this is a team capable of re-entering the F/+ Top 20, perhaps even the Top 15. Jay Ajayi is a potential star, Joe Southwick should be good enough, the offense should improve, and the pass rush will be strong once again. But there are just enough limitations, just enough depth issues, and just enough landmines on the schedule that I assume something like 10-2 is far more likely than 12-0. That this feels disappointing tells you a little bit about where Chris Petersen has taken his program; in all, though, it looks like it will be at least one more year before Boise State re-enters into the land of college football's elite.

The Broncos will have to settle for merely being very good again in 2013.

10. The Mountain West balance of power

Now that we are through with the Mountain West previews, here's how I see the Mountain West taking shape this year, in tier form:

Tier 1
1. Boise State
2. San Diego State
3. Fresno State

Tier 2
4. San Jose State
5. Utah State
6. Nevada

Tier 3
7. Colorado State
8. New Mexico
9. Wyoming
10. Air Force
11. UNLV

Tier 4
12. Hawaii

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