2013 New Mexico State football's 10 things to know: Escape from the dead zone

New Mexico State spent most of 2012 wondering if it had a future at the FBS level (and playing like it didn't). But the Aggies now have a new coach, a new future conference, and a new lease on life. There's nowhere to go but up for the NMSU program, and it should go up at least a little bit in 2013.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC May 9, 2013, 10:00am EDT

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1. This is the hardest job in FBS

Using Sports-Reference's SRS ratings, the best New Mexico State team of the last 40 years went 7-5 (with no bowl), lost to a 4-7 Utah State team, and ranked 75th in FBS. The Aggies have not attended a bowl since its 11-0 squad of 1960 went down the road to beat Utah State in the Sun Bowl in El Paso. The team has more 0- or 1-win seasons in the last 40 years (eight) than winning seasons (three). The last two head coaches have left Las Cruces with records of 11-38 (Hal Mumme, 2005-08) and 10-40 (DeWayne Walker, 2009-12). Walker left in late-January to become the 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars' defensive backs coach, and despite a pretty strong industry based completely around the coaching carousel, barely anybody outside of New Mexico noticed.

Shall I go on? Home attendance in 2012 was 25,211 for the big in-state battle with New Mexico (a 27-14 loss) but averaged just 12,053 for the other five games. And when the WAC fell apart, New Mexico State couldn't immediately find a home and had to go independent for the 2013 season.

This is a hard job, one that has destroyed quite a few résumés through the years. And it will probably destroy new head coach Doug Martin's résumé as well. There is no base of talent to recruit, and there is no history of success on which to lean.

But there's always hope. The Sun Belt will be bringing both NMSU and Idaho aboard in football starting in 2014, so the hard(er) life as an independent won't last very long. Plus ... this is college football. A ULM team with revenue less than half that of NMSU's just went 8-5, beat Arkansas, and made a bowl in 2012. A UL-Lafayette team with revenue only slightly better than ULM's has gone to two straight bowls. Kent State, a team that hadn't been to a bowl in 40 years, damn near made a BCS bowl last year. With quality coaching and a little bit of lightning in a bottle, any FBS team can win some games. So instead of the doom and gloom that could easily pervade a preview of a team that almost faced demotion from FBS last calendar year, let's see how positive and hopeful we can be. The remaining nine things in this NMSU preview are all intended to look at the bright side of life.

NMSU probably won't be very good in 2013 -- I'll say that out front -- but there's always reason for optimism in the offseason.

2. Doug Martin is back

Doug Martin succeeded ULM head coach Todd Berry as the offensive coordinator for the enigmatic Steve Logan at East Carolina in 1996. In 2003, he became Kent State's offensive coordinator, and a year later he took over as head coach for the Golden Flashes.

He knows tough jobs. At Kent State, he came oh, so close to turning the corner at a program that hadn't turned a corner in ages; he went 5-6 in 2004, 6-6 in 2006, and 5-7 in both 2009 and 2010, but he couldn't ever get Kent State into the postseason and resigned following 2010. He spent a year as DeWayne Walker's offensive coordinator at NMSU, improved the Aggies from 119th in Off. F/+ to 94th, then took the same job at Boston College and coaxed a bit of improvement out of the Eagles (they improved from 101st to 97th in Off. F/+). When Frank Spaziani was fired, he came back to Las Cruces to fix an offense that had sunk right back to 118th in 2012; a week later, he was named interim head coach when Walker unexpectedly left for Jacksonville. A week after that, he was named permanent head coach.

Martin is saying all the right things and doing everything he can to breathe life into a lifeless program. He brings with him an experienced offensive coordinator in Gregg Brandon (Urban Meyer's former right-hand man at Bowling Green, a former BGSU head coach, and a former offensive coordinator at both Virginia and Wyoming) and a change to an attacking 3-4 defense. He has fought the hard fight before, and perhaps most importantly, he wants the job. These are good things.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 \| Adj. Record: 0-12 \| Final F/+ Rk: 123
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
30-Aug	Sacramento State	49-19	W	34.2 - 38.6	L
8-Sep	at Ohio	24-51	L	17.4 - 38.7	L
15-Sep	at UTEP	28-41	L	17.9 - 40.3	L
22-Sep	New Mexico	14-27	L	24.9 - 28.9	L
29-Sep	UTSA	14-35	L	19.5 - 33.3	L
6-Oct	at Idaho	18-26	L	20.3 - 31.5	L
20-Oct	at Utah State	7-41	L	32.4 - 38.2	L
27-Oct	Louisiana Tech	14-28	L	21.5 - 21.5	L
3-Nov	at Auburn	7-42	L	17.1 - 47.7	L
10-Nov	San Jose State	7-47	L	13.7 - 33.3	L
24-Nov	BYU	14-50	L	25.7 - 38.3	L
1-Dec	at Texas State	28-66	L	22.8 - 47.9	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	18.7	114	39.4	120
Adj. Points Per Game	22.3	113	36.5	119

3. October wasn't that bad

Okay, it takes some stretching to fit anything regarding the 2012 season into the positives department. But we'll try. Losing wears you down at times, and by the time November rolled around, a 1-7 NMSU squad had lost hope. The Aggies were outscored by a 205-56 margin and lost the last ever WAC game by 38 points to an FBS newcomer, Texas State. But before hopelessness set in, this rather young team was making strides, at least on the defensive end.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 36.6, NMSU 23.6 (minus-13.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 31.1, NMSU 23.4 (minus-7.7)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 41.8, NMSU 19.8 (minus-22.0)

The Aggies' best performance of the season, by far, came in a 28-14 loss to Louisiana Tech. Granted, the score was 28-0 midway through the fourth quarter, but the defense showed a decent spine in stopping Tech without points in nine of 13 possessions. Unfortunately, any improvement ended there.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	103	119	117	119
RUSHING	117	113	99	116
PASSING	59	114	114	117
Standard Downs		116	109	118
Passing Downs		119	119	117
Redzone		54	39	61

Q1 Rk	120	1st Down Rk	103
Q2 Rk	97	2nd Down Rk	109
Q3 Rk	115	3rd Down Rk	121
Q4 Rk	78

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Andrew Manley

207

384

2,764

53.9%

9.2%

5.9

Travaughn Colwell

6'3, 185

Jr.

** (5.4)

46.2%

7.1%

4.1

Andrew McDonald

6'2, 210

Sr.

*** (5.5)

33.3%

40.0%

-0.6

King Davis III

6'1, 180

Fr.

** (5.3)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Germi Morrison	RB	6'0, 195	Sr.	** (5.2)	159	767	4.8	4.7	2	-0.5
Tiger Powell	RB				72	236	3.3	3.1	5	-13.6
Travaughn Colwell	QB	6'3, 185	Jr.	** (5.4)	30	147	4.9	3.5	0	-0.5
Robert Clay	RB				30	111	3.7	2.4	2	-4.2
Andrew Manley	QB				25	68	2.7	1.4	2	-4.7
Akeelie Mustafa	RB				15	70	4.7	2.8	0	-1.2
Austin Franklin	WR-Z	6'2, 180	Jr.	*** (5.5)	10	39	3.9	1.2	0	-0.5
Brandon Betancourt	RB	5'10, 180	Jr.	** (5.4)
Marquette Washington	RB	5'11, 210	Fr.	** (5.4)
Thomas Warren	RB	5'11, 170	Fr.	** (5.4)

4. Germi Morrison is decent

At this point, we really don't know what to expect from the quarterback position in 2013. Martin and Brandon decided that to give NMSU the best chance of succeeding, they needed to install a system friendly to a more mobile quarterback, with read options and moving pockets. That fits junior Travaughn Colwell's style quite comfortably -- Colwell was used as a change-of-pace last year, attempting 30 runs to just 13 passes (he attempted 78 runs to 60 passes in 2011 with Martin as offensive coordinator) -- but it left rather immobile starter Andrew Manley out in the cold a bit. Manley announced his transfer this week. So now it's either Colwell or Andrew McDonald, unless a newcomer like wonderfully-named freshman King Davis III can make some noise this summer.

Whoever wins the job will inherit a skill position unit that is questionable in terms of depth but has some nice talent at the top. Of the four running backs who averaged at least one carry per game, Germi Morrison was easily the most successful and explosive. His 4.7 highlight yards per carry suggest a guy who can do decent things in the open field, and while I don't want to overstate his talent, he's got at least a little bit of it. Throw in junior Brandon Betancourt, who had a lovely spring, and a couple of potentially interesting freshmen, and NMSU should at the very least have a running game that is a bit more efficient than last year's.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Austin Franklin

WR-Z

6'2, 180

Jr.

*** (5.5)

139

1245

53.2%

9.0

36.6%

54.0%

9.1

131.8

Kemonte' Bateman

WR-X

718

51.5%

7.3

26.1%

58.6%

7.3

76.0

Trevor Walls

182

50.0%

4.8

10.0%

63.2%

4.7

19.3

Jerrel Brown

WR-H

6'0, 180

Jr.

239

69.2%

9.2

6.8%

57.7%

8.9

25.3

Germi Morrison

6'0, 195

Sr.

** (5.2)

56.5%

4.1

6.1%

43.5%

4.3

10.0

Perris Scoggins

6'3, 250

Sr.

** (5.3)

115

68.8%

7.2

4.2%

75.0%

6.8

12.2

Joseph Matthews

WR-H

6'2, 190

Jr.

** (5.4)

113

63.6%

10.3

2.9%

36.4%

11.5

12.0

Robert Clay

87.5%

4.8

2.1%

50.0%

5.3

4.0

David Quiroga

71.4%

5.3

1.8%

85.7%

3.7

3.9

Adam Shapiro

6'0, 180

Jr.

** (5.2)

40.0%

3.0

1.3%

60.0%

3.0

1.6

Marcus Williams

66.7%

8.3

0.8%

33.3%

10.2

2.6

Josh Bowen

5'10, 170

So.

Jordan Bergstrom

5'11, 175

Jr.

** (5.4)

Prentavious Morehead

6'2, 175

Fr.

*** (5.5)

5. Austin Franklin is better than decent

The No. 2 and No. 3 receivers in NMSU's 2012 receiving corps combined for a 51 percent catch rate and average just 6.6 yards per target. On passing downs, he was basically the No. 1 and No. 2 target. But even in an awful passing attack, Austin Franklin made noise. He averaged nearly 17 yards per catch and a solid 9.0 yards per target despite plenty of attention from opposing defenses and minimal talent around him. Franklin showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman in 2011, averaging 10.7 yards per target and catching 34 balls; but he raised his game like nobody else on the roster did in 2012. Assuming he passes academic muster -- not a guarantee, since he was held out of spring practice for academic deficiencies -- he will give Martin and Brandon an offensive star.

Junior Jerrel Brown also showed flashes in 2012 and could become a strong No. 2 ... assuming Franklin is around to be the No. 1.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90.6	2.96	2.49	34.9%	65.7%	19.8%	58.8	6.5%	10.4%
Rank	104	64	112	105	72	79	120	93	111

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Davonte Wallace	LT	6'4, 290	Sr.	** (5.3)	36 career starts; 2012 2nd All-WAC
Andrew Kersten	RG				21 career starts
Valerian Ume-Ezeoke	C	6'2, 285	Jr.	** (5.3)	19 career starts
Dada Richards	RT	6'3, 315	Sr.	** (5.2)	12 career starts
Andy Cunningham	LG	6'4, 300	So.	** (5.2)	11 career starts
Houston Clemente	RG	6'2, 285	So.	** (5.2)	1 career starts
Peter Foreman	LT	6'4, 310	So.	** (5.4)
Isaiah Folasa-Lutui	LG	6'3, 335	So.	** (5.4)
Alexander Trujillo	C	6'2, 280	So.	NR

6. The line is big and experienced

Eight of nine players from last season's two-deep return, including second-team all-conference tackle Davonte Wallace and four other players with starting experience. In all, NMSU returns 79 career starts, and the eight primary returnees average 6'3, 300 pounds. It struggled to create opportunities for its backs, but it was decent in terms of both converting in short yardage and preventing negative plays. This isn't the most amazing line in the world, especially in pass protection (let's just say that getting the quarterback out of the pocket might be a pretty darn good idea), but it is far from the biggest worry on this squad.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	114	115	114	112
RUSHING	115	117	114	112
PASSING	95	110	99	112
Standard Downs		93	90	98
Passing Downs		122	122	122
Redzone		56	62	52

Q1 Rk	88	1st Down Rk	111
Q2 Rk	121	2nd Down Rk	109
Q3 Rk	101	3rd Down Rk	111
Q4 Rk	115

7. Hello, new blood

Thanks in part to a shipment of transfers, this NMSU defense might have more athletic potential than any Aggie defense in a while. NMSU wasn't awful on standard downs (and completely fell apart on passing downs) and stiffened nicely in the red zone, but the ceiling just wasn't very high overall.

That could change at least a bit with the addition of players like sixth-year Arizona end Willie Mobley, Michigan State tackle (and Las Cruces product) Matt Ramondo, New Mexico linebacker Zach Daugherty, Washington linebacker Kalei Auelua, and UCLA receiver-turned-corner Randell Carroll. Throw in a couple of junior college transfers and a three-star freshman linebacker, as well, and you've got a team that is quite a bit deeper than last year's. There is quite obviously no guarantee of success here, especially with a switch to a 3-4, but in terms of potential and hope, NMSU has more in 2013 than it did in 2012.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.4	2.96	3.84	42.8%	66.7%	18.5%	40.0	2.6%	1.4%
Rank	96	67	115	108	50	80	122	111	123

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kevin Laudermill	DT	6'2, 295	Sr.	*** (5.5)	11	23.0	3.5%	2	1	0	1	0	0
Walton Taumoepeau	DT				12	18.5	2.8%	4.5	2	0	2	0	1
Desmond Anaya	DE				12	17.0	2.6%	4.5	2	0	0	1	1
Kalvin Cruz	DE	6'2, 275	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	10.5	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Mark Brown	DT				12	7.5	1.1%	1.5	1	0	1	0	0
Inuka Rhaheed	DT	6'2, 305	So.	*** (5.5)	8	7.0	1.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Oliva	DE	6'4, 245	Sr.	** (5.4)	4	5.5	0.8%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Chance Roberts	DE	6'5, 245	Sr.	NR	11	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Willie Mobley (Arizona)	DE	6'2, 270	Sr.	**** (5.8)
Frazer Taua	DE	6'2, 270	Jr.	** (5.4)
Matt Ramondo (Michigan State)	DT	6'4, 320	So.	*** (5.6)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trashaun Nixon	OLB	6'1, 225	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	70.0	10.7%	9.5	3	1	4	1	1
Bryan Bonilla	ILB	6'1, 220	Sr.	NR	12	52.5	8.0%	4.5	1	0	0	0	0
B.J. Adolpho	ILB				11	40.0	6.1%	3.5	0	0	1	0	0
Donte Savage	OLB				12	33.5	5.1%	7	3	0	1	0	1
Alex LaVoy	OLB				12	21.0	3.2%	1	0	0	6	0	0
Anthony Joyner	ILB	6'2, 235	Jr.	** (5.3)	10	19.5	3.0%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Dele Junaid	LB	6'1, 200	Sr.	** (5.4)	8	16.5	2.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stephen Meredith (2011)	OLB	6'4, 240	So.	** (5.4)	12	14.5	1.9%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Dylan Davis	LB	6'0, 230	Sr.	** (5.4)	7	10.0	1.5%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Smith	LB	6'2, 195	Sr.	NR	10	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Robert Wagner	LB	6'2, 225	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Zach Daugherty (New Mexico)	LB	6'0, 215	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Kalei Auelua (Washington)	LB	6'2, 235	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Brandon Hines	LB	6'2, 193	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Andre Thompson	LB	6'2, 200	Fr.	** (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Davis Cazares	FS	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	12	91.5	13.9%	3	0	0	1	1	0
George Callender	SS	6'1, 195	Sr.	NR	12	69.0	10.5%	0	0	2	0	0	0
Jeremy Harris	CB				12	46.5	7.1%	1	0	1	10	2	0
Cameron Fuller	CB	5'11, 175	Sr.	** (5.4)	12	32.0	4.9%	1	0	0	6	0	0
Darien Johnson	CB	5'9, 180	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	22.0	3.4%	1	0	0	4	0	0
Samuel Oyenuga	CB	5'11, 180	So.	*** (5.5)	12	11.5	1.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Justin Smith	FS	6'2, 200	Sr.	** (5.2)	11	6.5	1.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Edwards	SS	6'0, 190	Sr.	** (5.2)	8	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Randell Carroll (UCLA)	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	**** (6.0)

8. Seniors, seniors everywhere

When NMSU moves to the Sun Belt in 2014, it will do so with a defense that will look completely different than it will have in 2013. Why? Because holy moly, look at all the seniors. Two of the incoming transfers are seniors, and the defense was a focal point of a 2012 Walker recruiting class that featured 11 junior college transfers.

The result: the top four returnees in the secondary are seniors, as are the top two returning linebackers and four of the top five returning linemen. The downside of loading up on JUCOs is that they don't stay long, and you'll have to load up on more in a couple of years. But let's worry about the future in the future. Right now, we see a rather absurdly experienced defense ready to take the field. That's quite often a good thing.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Cayle Chapman-Brown	6'5, 235	Sr.	70	44.3	4	17	22	55.7%
Jake Capraro	6'1, 210	Sr.	4	39.2	0	0	3	75.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Brock Baca			24	61.8	12	50.0%
Marcus Johnson			16	63.5	5	31.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Tyler Stampler			19-19	1-1	100.0%	1-3	33.3%
Marcus Johnson			11-11	0-0	0.0%	0-2	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Akeelie Mustafa	KR			21	23.0	1
Austin Franklin	KR	6'2, 180	Jr.	15	22.3	0
David Quiroga	KR			2	21.5	0
Austin Franklin	PR	6'2, 180	Jr.	8	1.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	124
Net Punting	52
Net Kickoffs	76
Touchback Pct	44
Field Goal Pct	124
Kick Returns Avg	65
Punt Returns Avg	124

9. Special teams won't be worse

Again, it's a stretch here to turn the NMSU special teams unit into a positive, especially considering it must replace its main bright spot, kick returner Akeelie Mustafa. NMSU derived less of an advantage from special teams than any FBS team, with the worst place-kicking and punt returning in the country. But hey, you can't get worse than the worst. Decent punter Cayle Chapman-Brown returns, and any conceivable improvement from this unit would be welcomed.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Texas	11
7-Sep	Minnesota	73
14-Sep	UTEP	108
21-Sep	at UCLA	43
28-Sep	San Diego State	53
5-Oct	at New Mexico	122
19-Oct	Rice	92
26-Oct	Abilene Christian	NR
2-Nov	at UL-Lafayette	78
9-Nov	Boston College	71
23-Nov	at Florida Atlantic	116
30-Nov	Idaho	121

Five-Year F/+ Rk	123
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	114
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-18 / -0.3
TO Luck/Game	-7.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (8, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+5.9

10. A better team

New Mexico State is going to be better in 2013.

Don't ask me how much better, because I don't know. NMSU only once ranked better than 119th in the F/+ rankings during Walker's tenure (109th and 4-9 with an experienced squad in 2011) and played worse than three of four FBS newcomers in 2012. So "improvement" could mean making a run at bowl eligibility with wins over teams like UTEP, Abilene Christian, FAU, and Idaho (and hey, maybe an upset of visiting Minnesota or Boston College); or it could simply mean 2-10 and 120th.

I like the Doug Martin hire, and while it didn't make a lot of sense (geographically, anyway) for the Sun Belt to bring NMSU and Idaho aboard, my guilty liberal tendencies made me feel pretty happy about it. We don't know that the future will be any brighter than the past for this struggling football program, but we know that there is a future, and we know that the Aggies have a coach that wants to be their coach. That's something.