2013 Iowa State football's 10 things to know: Can Paul Rhoads continue the slow-but-steady?

Iowa State has improved in three of Paul Rhoads' four seasons in Ames. The Cyclones have claimed some scalps along the way, too. Can they continue the growth in 2013 with a thinned out defensive front seven and a perpetually iffy passing game? For more Clones, visit Iowa State site Wide Right, Natty Lite.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jun 12, 2013, 10:58am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Slow and steady

Below, you'll find 64 players from the Iowa State Cyclones' roster listed. Only one was a four-star recruit (via Rivals.com): a true-freshman offensive lineman. Per Rivals, head coach Paul Rhoads' five recruiting classes in Ames have ranked 73rd (behind Akron), 60th (behind Memphis), 51st (behind SMU), 87th (behind FIU and Hawaii), and 58th (behind Houston).

For all intents and purposes, Iowa State recruits like a Conference USA team, or at least what used to be Conference USA and is basically now the American Athletic Conference. There aren't many big-time recruits in the Cyclones' backyard, and Paul Rhoads is more of a talent sculptor than a talent finder.

But Rhoads just keeps figuring out ways to make Iowa State a little better each year. He inherited from Gene Chizik a program that went 2-10 with an F/+ ranking of 97th in 2008. In 2009, ISU improved to 7-6 and 80th, and after a year of regression in 2010 (5-7, 85th), he improved again (6-7, 72nd) and again (6-7, 55th). The on-paper product has improved more than the record, but with each passing year he adds a little more to the foundation. ISU's 2012 season was damaged by injuries and a rare losing record in close games -- the Cyclones went 1-2 in games decided by one possession after going 9-5 in such games from 2009-11 -- but despite the loss of a defensive leader and continued shuffling at quarterback, the offense improved dramatically (from 92nd in Off. F/+ to 65th) while the defense held steady.

Iowa State enters 2013 with a paucity of options on the defensive line and a questionable receiving corps; but this is nothing new. With a full roster of his guys and potentially an answer at quarterback for once, he should be able to put his team in position to make its fourth bowl in five years.

Rhoads has made a name for himself mostly through big wins -- the Cyclones won at Nebraska in 2009, won at Texas in 2010, beat Oklahoma State (and kept them out of the national title game) and Iowa and won at Texas Tech in 2011, and beat Iowa and won at TCU in 2012 -- but he encounters a couple of questions as he enters his fifth season in Ames:

A. Can he keep up the slow build? Going slow-but-steady is the only way you can build a program without star recruits. There is no sudden talent surge; you simply have to continue to find ways to build depth, find the program-specific talent you need, and cultivate a strong culture. But it's a lot easier to lose ground than to gain it.

B. What's this team's ceiling? It's great to claim memorable wins and reach minor bowl games -- Insight, Pinstripe, Liberty -- but even if the slow build continues, how far can ISU rise in a conference that features incredible depth? I'm not sure if the Big 12 has a truly elite team this year, but it has at least eight pretty good ones. Can ISU make it nine on a consistent basis? Can the Cyclones ever make a run at a conference title?

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 \| Adj. Record: 4-9 \| Final F/+ Rk: 55
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Tulsa	38-23	W	35.9 - 20.7	W
8-Sep	at Iowa	9-6	W	19.7 - 21.3	L
15-Sep	Western Illinois	37-3	W	24.1 - 11.5	W
29-Sep	Texas Tech	13-24	L	12.5 - 19.9	L
6-Oct	at TCU	37-23	W	35.1 - 28.0	W
13-Oct	Kansas State	21-27	L	13.6 - 20.0	L
20-Oct	at Oklahoma State	10-31	L	23.0 - 28.9	L
27-Oct	Baylor	35-21	W	23.0 - 25.5	L
3-Nov	Oklahoma	20-35	L	22.0 - 32.4	L
10-Nov	at Texas	7-33	L	22.4 - 37.8	L
17-Nov	at Kansas	51-23	W	32.1 - 34.8	L
23-Nov	West Virginia	24-31	L	20.3 - 28.2	L
31-Dec	vs. Tulsa	17-31	L	23.4 - 23.2	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	24.5	88	23.9	38
Adj. Points Per Game	23.6	102	25.6	41

2. A less-effective Kansas State

Iowa State basically attempted a Kansas State impression in 2012, pecking away with its short game on offense and attempting to bend and rarely break on defense. The problem, of course, was that ISU didn't have a Collin Klein or an Arthur Brown. The Cyclones did prevent big plays pretty well and hacked at the ball in reliably strong fashion, but the offense wasn't nearly efficient enough. The ground game produced some big plays, but the passing game was mostly ineffective (again).

And as the season progressed, the injuries piled up and the product suffered.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): ISU 25.5, Opponent 20.3 (plus-5.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 8 games): Opponent 28.9, ISU 22.5 (minus-6.4)

When star linebacker Jake Knott was injured after eight games, the defense took a significant step backwards.

Adj. Points Per Game with Jake Knott (8 games): 22.0
Adj. Points Per Game without Knott (5 games): 31.3

With a new quarterback, the Cyclones' offense rallied a bit late, but only so much.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	94	92	100	94
RUSHING	75	78	89	70
PASSING	80	94	95	94
Standard Downs		102	98	101
Passing Downs		76	80	72
Redzone		19	33	14

Q1 Rk	60	1st Down Rk	116
Q2 Rk	93	2nd Down Rk	40
Q3 Rk	80	3rd Down Rk	85
Q4 Rk	113

3. Being good in the red zone matters more when you get to the red zone more

The Kansas State/Iowa State model requires you to take full advantage of the opportunities given to you. Iowa State did that with a nearly automatic red zone offense. Against a solid set of red zone defenses, the Cyclones averaged 6.7 points per trip inside the 5-yard line (27th in the country) and 5.5 points per trip inside the 20 (54th).

The problem, of course, was that they didn't create nearly enough of these opportunities. They made only 74 trips inside the opponent 40 (102nd in the country), 51 inside the 20 (87th), and 40 inside the 5 (86th). Finishing drives is great; creating opportunities to finish is better.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Steele Jantz				167	269	1,603	62.1%	13	12	16	5.6%	5.3
Jared Barnett				52	108	624	48.1%	6	4	1	0.9%	5.7
Sam B. Richardson	6'2, 205	So.	*** (5.5)	46	79	541	58.2%	8	1	3	3.7%	6.4
Grant Rohach	6'1, 210	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Joel Lanning	6'2, 220	Fr.	*** (5.5)

4. Find a QB who will stick

In 2009, Austen Arnaud threw 303 passes for Iowa State, and Jerome Tiller threw 73. In 2010, Arnaud threw 290, and Tiller threw 82. In 2011, Steele Jantz threw 259, and Jared Barnett threw 220. In 2012, Jantz threw 269, Barnett threw 108, and Sam B. Richardson threw 79.

Teams are sometimes forced to deal with issues at quarterback; injuries happen, and sometimes you just pick the wrong guy at first. That's life. But for Iowa State, shuffling at quarterback is a way of life. There hasn't been stability at the position since Bret Meyer left, and considering how much of the modern college offense (any offense) is dependent on quarterback play, that's an issue.

So now it's Richardson's turn to take a shot. Aside from cleanup duty against Western Illinois, he didn't see the field until pressed into starting duty against Kansas. Granted, it was Kansas, but Richardson responded to the opportunity by completing 23 of 27 passes for 250 yards and four touchdowns; he also rushed for 43 yards and a score. It was an incredible seizing of the moment, one that gave ISU hope into the offseason, even as he finished the year by completing just 23 of 52 passes against West Virginia and Tulsa. (He did, however, rush for 119 yards against WVU.)

Richardson's sample size is not nearly big enough to determine that he's absolutely the answer, but one had to like his combination of decision-making and wheels. One also has to like how the backfield has taken shape alongside him. Despite inefficiency that could be ascribed to the only average blocking they received, Iowa State running backs showed serious potential in 2012. Shontrelle Johnson was the leader until a late-season knee injury, but after a lovely season debut against Tulsa (18 carries, 120 yards), Johnson averaged just 4.0 yards per carry the rest of the year.

James White's abilities in the open field, however, stood out (though he needs to see more of the open field). Combined with big senior Jeff Woody, spring game star DeVondrick Nealy, and junior college transfer Aaron Wimberly, Richardson could find his job is made a lot easier by a strong running game and lots of second- and third-and-manageables.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Shontrelle Johnson	RB	5'9, 186	Sr.	*** (5.5)	115	504	4.4	3.2	2	-8.1
James White	RB	5'8, 192	Sr.	*** (5.5)	99	505	5.1	6.3	2	+3.6
Steele Jantz	QB				76	313	4.1	4.4	1	-6.4
Jeff Woody	RB	6'1, 242	Sr.	NR	40	193	4.8	6.4	2	+3.5
Sam B. Richardson	QB	6'2, 205	So.	*** (5.5)	38	246	6.5	4.5	1	+5.0
Jared Barnett	QB				29	137	4.7	3.1	0	-0.1
DeVondrick Nealy	RB	5'10, 183	So.	*** (5.7)	16	81	5.1	4.7	0	-2.0
Rob Standard	RB	5'10, 208	So.	*** (5.6)	8	27	3.4	3.1	1	-1.4
Jarvis West	WR	5'7, 174	Jr.	*** (5.6)	7	26	3.7	11.7	1	-0.5
Aaron Wimberly	RB	5'9, 173	Jr.	*** (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Aaron Horne

370

58.2%

5.5

15.6%

56.7%

5.4

38.1

Chris Young

411

59.4%

6.4

14.9%

59.4%

6.4

42.3

Josh Lenz

459

66.0%

9.8

10.9%

63.8%

9.8

47.2

Jarvis West

5'7, 174

Jr.

*** (5.6)

290

68.9%

6.4

10.5%

42.2%

6.5

29.8

Quenton Bundrage

6'2, 189

So.

*** (5.6)

232

50.0%

5.8

9.3%

65.0%

5.9

23.9

Ernst Brun, Jr.

6'3, 251

Sr.

*** (5.5)

330

72.2%

9.2

8.4%

66.7%

9.5

33.9

Albert Gary

5'10, 203

Sr.

** (5.2)

170

51.4%

4.9

8.1%

45.7%

4.6

17.5

Jerome Tiller

174

62.1%

6.0

6.7%

55.2%

6.0

17.9

James White

5'8, 192

Sr.

*** (5.5)

137

74.1%

5.1

6.3%

33.3%

6.8

14.1

Shontrelle Johnson

5'9, 186

Sr.

*** (5.5)

115

70.0%

5.8

4.7%

60.0%

5.8

11.8

DeVondrick Nealy

5'10, 183

So.

*** (5.7)

42.9%

7.4

1.6%

42.9%

6.6

5.3

Pierce Richardson

6'5, 253

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Ben Boesen

6'6, 230

So.

P.J. Harris

6'1, 160

RSFr.

*** (5.6)

Dondre Daley

6'1, 191

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

E.J. Bibbs

6'3, 250

Jr.

*** (5.6)

5. Mix and match receivers

Perhaps the biggest problem for Iowa State's offense in 2012 was that offensive coordinator Courtney Messingham likes to throw the ball, too. Iowa State threw slightly more frequently than the national average on both standard downs and passing downs; the Cyclones did so despite the fact that they really couldn't do it very well. Of the 10 players targeted at least once per game, only two averaged better than a paltry 6.4 yards per target. One of those two (Josh Lenz) is now gone. Lenz was injured in the middle of the season, and the offense suffered in his absence; now his absence is permanent.

Tight end Ernst Brun, Jr., came on in the second half of the season. He caught six of six passes for 76 yards versus Baylor, then caught four of six for 102 and a touchdown in the Liberty Bowl. But no returning receiver was even remotely inspiring last fall. Jarvis West, Quenton Bundrage, and Albert Gary combined for a 53 percent catch rate and 5.8 yards per target. Awful. As deep as the Cyclones are at running back, they are thin at receiver.

That ISU managed a Top 50 Off. F/+ ranking despite poor passing and inefficient running both proves to you how good the Cyclones were in the red zone and reminds you how far the Cyclones still have to go in the offense-heavy Big 12. The running game should improve in 2013, but even if Sam B. Richardson is indeed the answer at quarterback, he'll still need guys to catch his passes, and it is very much not clear that he does.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.9	2.84	3.15	36.6%	69.0%	21.3%	126.7	4.9%	3.4%
Rank	61	83	68	87	57	99	39	66	16

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Brayden Burris	RT				30 career starts
Tom Farniok	C	6'4, 287	Jr.	** (5.4)	26 career starts
Ethan Tuftee	RG	6'4, 314	Sr.	** (5.4)	23 career starts
Carter Bykowski	LT				18 career starts
Kyle Lichtenberg	RT	6'6, 296	Sr.	*** (5.5)	16 career starts
Jacob Gannon	LT	6'7, 300	Jr.	** (5.3)	4 career starts
Brock Dagel	LT	6'8, 297	So.	** (5.4)
Bob Graham	LG	6'5, 296	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Sam Tautolo	C
Oni Omoile	RG	6'3, 282	So.	*** (5.5)
Jamison Lalk	RT	6'6, 295	So.	** (5.2)
Shaban Dika	LG
Ben Loth	C	6'6, 316	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Daniel Burton	RG	6'5, 302	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Jake Campos	OL	6'7, 260	Fr.	**** (5.8)

6. One day…

...I will figure out a way to adjust recruiting rankings to assume that offensive linemen at schools like Iowa State and Wisconsin are going to play a full star rating higher than what they were assigned by Rivals.com or any other recruiting service. (Meanwhile, linemen at Texas will perform a full star rating lower.) Wisconsin always seems to produce four-star quality out of three-star linemen, and in 2012, Iowa State at least produced a three-star level out of a bunch of two-stars. Must be the conditioning.

The Cyclones protected three separate passers pretty well and were at least mediocre in run blocking. With four players returning with starting experience (69 career starts), at least a little bit of improvement should be expected on the run side. And ISU's track record of decent offensive lines suggests that three-star underclassmen like Bob Graham and Oni Omoile should perform well if called upon to do so. This isn't an amazing line, but considering the recruiting rankings, it's pretty good.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	96	37	40	29
RUSHING	77	37	43	38
PASSING	102	38	48	36
Standard Downs		45	39	48
Passing Downs		25	54	18
Redzone		23	22	26

Q1 Rk	38	1st Down Rk	66
Q2 Rk	45	2nd Down Rk	8
Q3 Rk	33	3rd Down Rk	43
Q4 Rk	29

7. Bend … bend … bend

Iowa State was a top-30 team in terms of big-play prevention, and like the offense, the Cyclones' defense played at a high level in the red zone. But as we saw above, the bend-don't-break defense broke when linebacker Jake Knott was lost to injury. Without Knott, ISU was unable to utilize strong linebacker play to offset pretty poor performances from a defensive line that, unlike the offensive line, looked like a unit filled with two-star players.

With a healthy lineup, ISU was able to leave its cornerbacks without help and account for spread offenses without moving into a dime formation. As health faded, so did ISU.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.0	2.96	3.41	40.7%	61.8%	17.8%	85.0	2.2%	4.6%
Rank	84	67	83	82	27	86	86	117	96

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cleyon Laing	DT				13	31.5	6.2%	4.5	3	0	1	1	1
Willie Scott	DE	6'2, 224	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	29.0	5.7%	2	1	1	1	0	1
Jake McDonough	NG				13	28.5	5.6%	5.5	2	0	3	0	0
Roosevelt Maggitt	DE				13	25.5	5.0%	7.5	2.5	0	0	0	1
David Irving	DE	6'7, 272	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	17.0	3.4%	3	1	1	2	0	0
Rony Nelson	DE				13	15.0	3.0%	6	2	0	0	0	0
Henry Simon	DT				13	9.5	1.9%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Walter Woods III	NG	6'0, 318	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	7.0	1.4%	3	1	0	0	0	0
Brandon Jensen	NG	6'5, 301	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	6.0	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ben Durbin	DT				13	5.5	1.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Cory Morrissey	DE	6'4, 249	Jr.	*** (5.5)	9	5.0	1.0%	2	0	0	0	1	0
Nick Kron	DE	6'2, 240	So.	** (5.1)	12	4.0	0.8%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Mitchell Meyers	DE	6'4, 253	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Pierre Aka	DT	6'4, 273	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Collin Bevins	DT	6'5, 277	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Rodney Coe	DE	6'3, 285	Jr.	*** (5.7)

8. A terrifying (and not in a good way) defensive line

That ISU ranked in the top 40 in both Rushing S&P+ and Passing S&P+ despite a pushover line that generated little pass rush on its own tells you quite a bit of the potential of the linebacking corps and secondary. But in 2013, both Knott and A.J. Klein are gone, as are two more of ISU's top six LBs. Jeremiah George returns; he accounted for a decent four tackles for loss and three passes defensed in 2012 and proved a worthy tackler in space. However, the rest of ISU's returning linebackers combined for 23.5 tackles and no disruption whatsoever. Granted, there's a new Knott in the linebacking corps (Luke, a redshirt freshman), but ISU is going to be leaning on some incredibly untested players in what is perhaps the most important unit of the defense.

The Cyclones are going to need more help from the line than they got in 2013, and there's no reason to think they will get it. The ISU defensive line combined for 37 tackles for loss and decent stiffness in short-yardage situations, but 25 of those TFLs are gone, as are the top three defensive tackles. Returning ends Willie Scott, David Irving, Cory Morrissey, and Nick Kron combined for nine TFLs and three sacks, but somebody's going to have to step up in a major way. For that matter, so will upperclassman tackles Walter Woods III and Brandon Jensen.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
A.J. Klein	WLB				13	88.0	17.4%	3.5	1	1	2	0	0
Jeremiah George	MLB	5'11, 219	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	68.5	13.5%	4	0	0	3	0	0
Jake Knott	MLB				8	67.0	13.2%	6	0.5	2	6	2	0
Jevohn Miller	WLB	6'1, 240	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	16.5	3.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Matt Morton	WLB				13	11.5	2.3%	0.5	0	0	0	0	1
C.J. Morgan	SLB				12	8.5	1.7%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Jared Brackens	SLB	6'1, 210	Jr.	*** (5.5)	10	7.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darius White	MLB	6'0, 233	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Luke Knott	WLB	6'0, 216	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Alton Meeks	SLB	6'2, 241	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Justin Webster	LB	6'1, 217	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jacques Washington	FS	6'1, 220	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	71.5	14.1%	2	0	3	3	1	0
Durrell Givens	SS				12	67.0	13.2%	0	0	3	2	4	6
Jeremy Reeves	CB				13	62.0	12.3%	2	0	1	12	1	0
Jansen Watson	CB	5'9, 174	Sr.	** (5.3)	10	37.0	7.3%	0.5	0	0	7	0	0
Deon Broomfield	SS	6'0, 206	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	35.0	6.9%	1	0	2	10	2	1
Cliff Stokes	FS	6'1, 175	Sr.	*** (5.5)	10	22.5	4.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Gage Shaeffer	DB	5'11, 199	Jr.	NR	13	19.0	3.8%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Walker Woods	DB				13	6.0	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sam E. Richardson	CB	5'7, 182	So.	** (5.3)	13	4.0	0.8%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Kenneth Lynn	CB	5'10, 165	So.	*** (5.5)	9	2.0	0.4%	0	0	0	1	0	1
Charlie Rogers	CB	6'1, 202	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Damein Lawry	CB	5'10, 169	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
T.J. Mutcherson	SS	5'11, 191	RSFr.	** (5.3)
D.A. Williams	DB	5'10, 170	Fr.	*** (5.5)

9. Go after the ball

The good news for ISU is that the defensive backs are already used to playing under duress. The pass rush can't get too much worse than it was last year, and as referenced above, ISU already leaned hard on corners like Jansen Watson to make plays, and on safeties like Jacques Washington and Deon Broomfield to clean up potential messes. Safety Durrell Givens and play-making corner Jeremy Reeves are gone, but there is depth in the secondary that doesn't exist anywhere else on this roster besides running back.

And these guys get after the ball, too. ISU has been near the top of the country in forced fumbles for most of the Rhoads era, and they are able to play aggressively. Washington and Broomfield combined for 18 passes defensed, and Watson threw in seven. And Sam E. Richardson even broke up a couple of passes in minimal action. (And yes, ISU has two Sam Richardsons; and last year the Cyclones also had a Walker Woods and a Walter Woods.) This is an exciting unit, but it will need at least a little bit of help from the front seven.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kirby Van Der Kamp	6'4, 211	Sr.	77	41.0	2	30	29	76.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Edwin Arceo	5'9, 196	Sr.	63	62.9	23	36.5%
Kirby Van Der Kamp	6'4, 211	Sr.	1	46	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Edwin Arceo	5'9, 196	Sr.	37-40	4-6	66.7%	8-12	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jarvis West	KR	5'7, 174	Jr.	16	21.1	0
Albert Gary	KR	5'10, 203	Sr.	10	24.5	0
Josh Lenz	KR			2	18.0	0
Aaron Horne	PR			9	12.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	40
Net Punting	27
Net Kickoffs	64
Touchback Pct	61
Field Goal Pct	75
Kick Returns Avg	100
Punt Returns Avg	20

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Northern Iowa	NR
14-Sep	Iowa	47
21-Sep	at Tulsa	56
3-Oct	Texas	11
12-Oct	at Texas Tech	42
19-Oct	at Baylor	36
26-Oct	Oklahoma State	6
2-Nov	at Kansas State	40
9-Nov	TCU	16
16-Nov	at Oklahoma	7
23-Nov	Kansas	104
30-Nov	at West Virginia	41

Five-Year F/+ Rk	85
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	61
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	0 / +5.3
TO Luck/Game	-2.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	9 (5, 4)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-3.6

10. Either a great schedule or a terrible schedule

As a fan, your first glance at your team's schedule typically comes with some sort of "Okay, so let's say we go undefeated at home..." prerequisite. We always think our home-field advantage is greater than it actually is, but I'll just say this: If ISU goes undefeated at home this year, then the Cyclones are going about 10-2.

ISU's 2013 schedule is both exciting and terrifying. Three of the Cyclones' four toughest opponents (in terms of projected rankings) visit Ames, and with Rhoads' history, it is safe to say that ISU will beat at least one of them. But five of the next six opponents are on the road. If ISU is a top-30 or -40 team, then the Cyclones could go about 4-2 or 5-1 at home and perhaps as well as 3-3 or so on the road. That's a good season. But if ISU is only a top-50 or -60 team, then the big home games could be out of reach, and the road slate could be too tough to reach six wins.

Iowa State has improved overall in three of Rhoads' four seasons. The Cyclones did so last year despite key injuries and continued quarterback inconsistency. And with a good running game, strong secondary, and a potential answer at quarterback (again, I don't want to draw conclusions after three games -- Jared Barnett looked good after three games, as did Steele Jantz), there is hope for improvement here, too. But the defensive front seven scares me to death, and the offense has a pretty strong glass ceiling until it produces some actual threats at receiver.

With Rhoads' recent history, it's probably safe to assume a season very close to 6-6 once again, but there's no question that ISU has some work to do to stay even in this incredibly deep Big 12.