College Football

NCAA Football 14 team ratings: Comparing EA's numbers to advanced stats rankings

Team ratings for NCAA Football 14 are reportedly out. Let's put them side-by-side with Football Outsiders' numbers.

By Jason Kirk Jun 12, 2013, 9:44am EDT

Tradition Sports Online collected team ratings from the build of NCAA Football 14 available for use at the E3 gaming expo. (You should pay special attention to TSO this time of year, as it's consistently one of the first places to find this info for both NCAA and Madden.) As is custom, teams are rated on a scale between 60 and 99 overall, offensively, and defensively.

As is also custom, onlookers had many complaints. Alabama is perfect, many BCS-conference teams and units appear to be quite overvalued, and some things are just ... interesting.

So let's compare the leaked NCAA ratings with the current version of this year's projected F/+ ratings by Football Outsiders. Though F/+ works on a scale that usually ends up ranging from something like -30 for the worst teams and +30 for the best teams, we can try and adapt it to the 60-99 scale. For a little more on F/+, here are last year's final numbers.

This isn't to try and prove anybody wrong (since even the best guesses are still just guesses) but to see the biggest differences.

Keep in mind the rankings reported by TSO aren't necessarily the final numbers, as the game won't be out for another few weeks. So we can always hope that, for one thing, West Virginia's defense won't be an 87.


	Team	F/+	EA	Diff
1	Alabama	96	99	-3
2	Oregon	95	95	0
3	Stanford	94	91	3
4	LSU	94	93	1
5	Florida	93	90	3
6	Oklahoma State	93	91	2
7	Texas	93	93	0
8	Oklahoma	93	91	2
9	TCU	92	84	8
10	Ohio State	92	95	-3
11	Georgia	92	91	1
12	Boise State	91	86	5
13	Notre Dame	91	93	-2
14	South Carolina	91	90	1
15	Texas A&M	91	91	0
16	Michigan State	90	91	-1
17	Florida State	90	91	-1
18	Wisconsin	90	88	2
19	USC	90	91	-1
20	Oregon State	88	84	4
21	Clemson	88	93	-5
22	Nebraska	88	88	0
23	Virginia Tech	87	93	-6
24	Penn State	87	84	3
25	Cincinnati	87	81	6
26	Miami-FL	87	90	-3
27	Ole Miss	86	90	-4
28	Missouri	85	88	-3
29	Michigan	85	91	-6
30	Louisville	85	90	-5
31	North Carolina	85	91	-6
32	Georgia Tech	85	86	-1
33	Arizona	85	86	-1
34	BYU	84	83	1
35	Pittsburgh	84	77	7
36	Arizona State	84	84	0
37	Baylor	84	90	-6
38	West Virginia	83	84	-1
39	Northern Illinois	83	79	4
40	Rutgers	82	84	-2
41	Utah	82	86	-4
42	Iowa	82	88	-6
43	Northwestern	82	86	-4
44	UCLA	82	88	-6
45	Arkansas	82	88	-6
46	Texas Tech	82	86	-4
47	Tennessee	82	86	-6
48	Kansas State	82	86	-4
49	Utah State	81	75	6
50	Fresno State	81	81	0
51	Vanderbilt	81	83	-2
52	Washington	81	91	-10
53	UConn	80	81	-1
54	Auburn	80	88	-8
55	Mississippi State	80	88	-8
56	UCF	80	83	-3
57	Houston	80	84	-4
58	Syracuse	80	81	-1
59	Tulsa	79	79	0
60	San Diego State	78	84	-6
61	N.C. State	78	84	-6
62	Temple	78	81	-3
63	Toledo	78	81	-3
64	Arkansas State	78	77	1
65	Indiana	78	81	-3
66	Bowling Green	77	74	3
67	Virginia	77	84	-7
68	USF	77	84	-7
69	Boston College	77	86	-9
70	San Jose State	77	77	0
71	Nevada	77	75	2
72	California	76	84	-8
73	Minnesota	76	79	-3
74	Iowa State	76	81	-5
75	Ohio	76	79	-3
76	ECU	76	84	-8
77	Air Force	76	70	6
78	ULM	76	75	1
79	Louisiana Tech	76	74	2
80	Purdue	75	84	-9
81	Maryland	75	86	-11
82	Wake Forest	75	83	-8
83	Kentucky	75	84	-9
84	Marshall	75	74	1
85	Southern Miss	74	74	0
86	Kent State	74	74	0
87	Western Kentucky	74	75	-1
88	SMU	74	81	-7
89	Rice	74	75	-1
90	Navy	74	74	0
91	Ball State	74	79	-5
92	UL-Lafayette	74	77	-3
93	Duke	74	79	-5
94	Buffalo	73	79	-6
95	Western Michigan	73	72	1
96	Illinois	73	83	-10
97	Troy	73	75	-2
98	UAB	72	68	4
99	Central Michigan	72	72	0
100	MTSU	72	74	-2
101	FIU	71	79	-8
102	Hawaii	70	77	-7
103	North Texas	70	72	-2
104	Wyoming	70	75	-5
105	Washington State	69	81	-12
106	Colorado State	69	72	-3
107	UNLV	69	72	-3
108	Kansas	69	81	-12
109	Colorado	69	79	-10
110	Texas State	69	68	1
111	UTEP	69	75	-6
112	Army	69	72	-3
113	South Alabama	68	68	0
114	Miami-OH	68	72	-4
115	UTSA	68	68	0
116	Memphis	67	70	-3
117	FAU	67	75	-8
118	Eastern Michigan	67	65	2
119	Tulane	66	75	-9
120	Akron	65	63	2
121	New Mexico	64	65	-1
122	Idaho	63	63	0
123	New Mexico State	62	65	-3
124	Georgia State	61	60	1
125	UMass	60	61	-1

The only thing that bothers me about this stuff is the best current teams earning 99s out the gate. A 99 should be reserved for all-time great teams. Alabama's gonna be good this year, but is anybody predicting it to be as good as 1995 Nebraska? The floor at 60 makes more sense, since it leaves room for people to realistically simulate their own FCS or lower teams, so we'll keep that part. But 2013 Alabama shouldn't enter as a 99 -- besides just historical consistency, its F/+ projection is well below the final numbers produced by a couple other recent Alabama teams. I say all that to say Bama's getting nerfed, when I'm in charge.

As expected, several bad teams from BCS conferences are rated very differently by EA and by F/+. We know Colorado, Kansas, Illinois, and Washington State to have been awful last year and likely not much better this year, but each team is decent in the game.

The most significantly underrated team (if we accept F/+ as more authoritative than EA) is TCU, but we keep tryna tell y'all.

Also, the offensive and defensive breakdowns, using the same systems:


Team	Off F/+	Off EA	Off Diff	Def F/+	Def EA	Def Diff
Air Force	78	68	10	76	71	5
Akron	69	61	8	68	65	3
Alabama	96	99	-3	98	99	-1
Arizona	87	86	1	82	88	-6
Arizona State	82	86	-4	86	83	3
Arkansas	82	88	-6	82	87	-5
Arkansas State	81	79	2	75	76	-1
Army	76	72	4	69	73	-4
Auburn	79	88	-9	82	90	-8
Ball State	78	86	-8	73	73	0
Baylor	89	90	-1	78	88	-10
Boise State	87	90	-3	91	82	9
Boston College	77	86	-9	79	85	-6
Bowling Green	75	75	0	82	75	7
Buffalo	73	81	-8	77	78	-1
BYU	82	84	-2	87	83	4
California	76	86	-10	79	83	-6
Central Michigan	76	72	4	73	71	2
Cincinnati	86	81	5	86	83	3
Clemson	90	95	-5	83	90	-7
Colorado	73	81	-8	70	78	-8
Colorado State	70	74	-4	73	73	0
Duke	80	79	1	72	78	-6
Eastern Michigan	71	68	3	70	65	5
ECU	78	86	-8	77	83	-6
FAU	69	77	-8	71	76	-5
FIU	71	77	-6	75	80	-5
Florida	86	90	-4	95	92	3
Florida State	86	93	-7	90	92	-2
Fresno State	78	84	-6	84	78	6
Georgia	95	95	0	85	88	-3
Georgia State	66	60	6	66	60	6
Georgia Tech	86	83	3	82	88	-6
Hawaii	69	77	-8	76	76	0
Houston	81	86	-5	80	83	-3
Idaho	67	67	0	67	61	6
Illinois	75	86	-11	76	80	-4
Indiana	83	83	0	74	82	-8
Iowa	80	88	-8	84	90	-6
Iowa State	77	81	-4	77	83	-6
Kansas	72	84	-12	71	78	-7
Kansas State	85	91	-6	79	83	-4
Kent State	75	75	0	76	75	1
Kentucky	77	84	-7	75	83	-8
Louisiana Tech	81	75	6	73	73	0
Louisville	86	93	-7	83	88	-5
LSU	89	93	-4	94	92	2
Marshall	82	77	5	71	73	-2
Maryland	73	86	-7	80	85	-5
Memphis	69	72	-3	72	70	2
Miami-FL	89	91	-2	82	88	-6
Miami-OH	73	74	-1	69	71	-2
Michigan	85	91	-6	84	92	-8
Michigan State	83	90	-7	94	93	1
Minnesota	77	79	-2	78	80	-2
Mississippi State	80	90	-10	81	85	-4
Missouri	82	90	-8	86	87	-1
MTSU	75	75	0	73	75	-2
N.C. State	77	84	-7	81	85	-4
Navy	77	74	3	74	75	-1
Nebraska	91	91	0	82	85	-3
Nevada	83	77	6	73	73	0
New Mexico	71	67	4	64	66	-2
New Mexico State	68	68	0	66	65	1
North Carolina	86	91	-5	83	90	-7
North Texas	73	72	1	72	75	-3
Northern Illinois	85	83	2	80	78	2
Northwestern	83	86	-3	82	87	-5
Notre Dame	87	93	-6	91	93	-2
Ohio	77	83	-6	77	76	1
Ohio State	93	97	-4	87	92	-5
Oklahoma	93	97	-4	87	88	-1
Oklahoma State	90	93	-3	90	92	-2
Ole Miss	85	91	-6	86	88	-2
Oregon	93	99	-6	96	92	4
Oregon State	86	86	0	86	83	3
Penn State	83	86	-3	88	85	3
Pittsburgh	82	77	5	87	80	7
Purdue	74	84	-10	80	85	-5
Rice	76	75	1	75	76	-1
Rutgers	78	86	-8	86	82	4
San Diego State	76	84	-8	82	83	-1
San Jose State	79	81	-2	77	76	1
SMU	76	83	-7	75	78	-3
South Alabama	68	67	1	74	70	4
South Carolina	87	88	-1	91	90	1
Southern Miss	72	72	0	78	75	3
Stanford	88	91	-3	94	93	1
Syracuse	82	83	-1	80	80	0
TCU	84	86	-2	96	85	11
Temple	80	81	-1	77	82	-5
Tennessee	83	84	-1	80	88	-8
Texas	91	95	-4	89	93	-4
Texas A&M	92	95	-3	85	88	-3
Texas State	73	67	-6	70	70	0
Texas Tech	83	90	-7	81	83	-2
Toledo	81	84	-3	76	78	-2
Troy	77	75	2	73	75	-2
Tulane	70	77	-7	70	68	2
Tulsa	80	84	-4	79	75	4
UAB	74	68	8	73	68	5
UCF	81	86	-5	80	82	-2
UCLA	82	88	-6	82	87	-5
UConn	77	84	-7	84	80	4
UL-Lafayette	79	81	-2	73	75	-2
ULM	79	79	0	75	75	0
UMass	63	61	2	66	65	1
UNLV	72	75	-3	72	70	2
USC	88	95	-7	88	90	-2
USF	77	81	-2	79	87	-8
Utah	79	84	-5	84	87	-3
Utah State	77	77	0	85	75	10
UTEP	73	77	-4	70	73	-3
UTSA	73	68	5	68	70	-2
Vanderbilt	79	84	-5	83	82	1
Virginia	76	86	-10	80	83	-3
Virginia Tech	79	91	-12	93	95	-2
Wake Forest	75	83	-8	79	85	-6
Washington	81	91	-10	82	90	-8
Washington State	70	83	-13	74	80	-6
West Virginia	84	83	1	81	87	-6
Western Kentucky	75	72	3	76	78	-2
Western Michigan	74	74	0	76	71	5
Wisconsin	87	88	-1	89	88	1
Wyoming	75	77	-2	70	75	-5