2013 TCU football's 10 things to know: Survive, then thrive

Injuries and arrests forced TCU to field a ridiculously inexperienced squad in its first year in the Big 12. Head coach Gary Patterson and his Horned Frogs survived, however, and now it's time to make a run at a conference title. For more TCU, visit Frogs O' War.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jun 19, 2013, 11:28am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. I was nervous

I spend a decent amount of time talking up mid-majors. I could chew year ear off for 10 minutes on all the ways that last year's Utah State team was good enough to win the Pac-12 South. I will argue the merits for San Jose State and Fresno State in that race, as well. I will talk up 2010 Nevada, 2011 Toledo, a few different recent BYU teams, this year's UL teams (-Lafayette and -Monroe), etc.

And it goes without saying that I was a big, big fan of TCU and Boise State for quite a few years in a row. I will tell you how Boise State might have been the best team in the country in 2010 and how TCU may have deserved a BCS title shot over Oregon that same year.

When I advocate for these teams, I do believe what I'm saying, of course; but it's easy to champion a team when you know you'll never have to worry about being proven wrong. I can tell you that TCU would have beaten Auburn in 2010, or that Utah State would have beaten UCLA and company last year, and I can back it up with all the numbers you'd want to see; you can disagree if you want, but you can never prove me wrong. It's arguing in a vacuum.

I've been trying to champion TCU for quite a while without actual repercussions from reality, but the Horned Frogs' move to the Big 12 in 2012 meant that it was actually time to find out if they could handle a major conference load like I thought they could. That's money-where-your-mouth-is territory.

And it turned out that they would take the field in the Big 12 following a crippling run of injuries and off-the-field issues. Some key defenders were dismissed because of drug-related arrests in the spring, then a loaded offensive backfield lost its best players to injury, attrition, and rehab. TCU played a ridiculous number of youngsters and fielded its thinnest, greenest team in years.

But the Horned Frogs survived. They didn't by any means thrive -- their 7-6 record was their worst since 2004, Gary Patterson's fourth season in charge, and according to the F/+ rankings, this was their worst team since 2007 -- but despite the extreme youth and a complete lack of depth, despite going with an all-freshman backfield, they still won two road games versus ranked teams, still qualified for a bowl, and still delivered a boatload of hope for 2013. And now the backfield is (theoretically) healthy, and the defense is ridiculously experienced.

The Horned Frogs will have a serious role to play in a wide-open conference title race. They survived a challenging calendar year, and now it's time to thrive.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 \| Adj. Record: 8-5 \| Final F/+ Rk: 31
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
8-Sep	Grambling State	56-0	W	39.2 - 6.4	W
15-Sep	at Kansas	20-6	W	30.2 - 31.9	L
22-Sep	Virginia	27-7	W	35.3 - 19.4	W
29-Sep	at SMU	24-16	W	4.6 - 12.4	L
6-Oct	Iowa State	23-37	L	26.8 - 32.6	L
13-Oct	at Baylor	49-21	W	28.1 - 30.4	L
20-Oct	Texas Tech	53-56	L	35.7 - 24.4	W
27-Oct	at Oklahoma State	14-36	L	23.4 - 23.4	L
3-Nov	at West Virginia	39-38	W	20.7 - 12.8	W
10-Nov	Kansas State	10-23	L	21.7 - 13.6	W
22-Nov	at Texas	20-13	W	22.7 - 17.3	W
1-Dec	Oklahoma	17-24	L	27.6 - 23.5	W
29-Dec	vs. Michigan State	16-17	L	29.5 - 15.2	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	28.3	68	22.6	30
Adj. Points Per Game	26.6	80	20.3	11

2. One hit after another

TCU has ranked in the top 12 of Def. F/+ for five of the last six years; the Horned Frogs peaked in 2008 (second) and 2010 (third) but have maintained a mostly solid level of play for most of recent history.

But in 2011, they sank to 41st. They were perfectly decent late in the season, but they struggled at cornerback and allowed far more passing downs conversions than we were used to seeing. TCU was hit hard by graduation at safety and linebacker, and the tackle position was thinned out by the aforementioned drug busts, so there was actually reason to be concerned about the TCU defense. At least, that was the case until the season actually began.

Aside from a series of midseason glitches, the defense was just fine. The problems lied on the offensive side of the ball, where TCU lost offensive coordinator Justin Fuente to Memphis in the offseason, then lost running back Ed Wesley to unexpected departure, then lost running back Waymon James to injury, then lost quarterback Casey Pachall to arrest and rehab. Meanwhile, Matthew Tucker, the last third of what was supposed to be a three-headed running back, struggled with injuries and was barely full strength. The result: a scattershot offensive effort that declined as the season progressed.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): TCU 27.3, Opponent 17.5 (plus-9.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): TCU 28.5, Opponent 27.7 (plus-0.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): TCU 24.4, Opponent 16.5 (plus-7.9)

For three games, Pachall and TCU were just about untouchable. But Pachall was absolutely dreadful against SMU, then got arrested. Redshirt freshman Trevone Boykin took over, and while he showed strong maturity while thrust into a difficult situation, he didn't necessarily show much accuracy. He was incredible in the late-going against West Virginia, but TCU scored more than 20 points just once in its last six games. That's not going to win you much in the Big 12.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	73	74	88	72
RUSHING	66	94	97	85
PASSING	62	54	63	52
Standard Downs		78	78	82
Passing Downs		81	105	61
Redzone		82	81	79

Q1 Rk	47	1st Down Rk	54
Q2 Rk	81	2nd Down Rk	87
Q3 Rk	38	3rd Down Rk	58
Q4 Rk	98

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Trevone Boykin

6'2, 215

So.

*** (5.6)

167

292

2,054

57.2%

7.9%

6.0

Casey Pachall

6'5, 230

Sr.

**** (5.8)

948

66.0%

3.0%

9.1

Matt Brown

6'1, 190

Jr.

*** (5.7)

57.1%

22.2%

5.0

Tyler Matthews

6'4, 220

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

3. Hey, Casey

Pachall was simply outstanding in his first season succeeding Rose Bowl champion Andy Dalton, completing 67 percent of his passes with minuscule sack (3.4 percent) and interception rates (2.0 percent). The former four-star recruit has lovely size and arm strength, and he raised his game on passing downs: TCU ranked 29th overall on standard downs, but 11th on passing downs. I've long called passing downs the "playmaker downs," and Pachall has proven himself quite the playmaker. He should fit right in in the Big 12. Of course, Pachall hasn't exactly had the happiest offseason. It was recently revealed that Pachall failed a drug test in February and later admitted to having dabbled in marijuana, cocaine and ecstasy in the last year. He has since passed further drug tests and will not face (further) disciplinary actions this fall, but with the entire TCU team seemingly coming under the spotlight for drug issues, it was at least a little disheartening to see that the quarterback, the face of the program, was also involved.

I wrote that last summer. Pachall responded first by completing 54 of his first 71 passes (76 percent) for 841 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception in wins over Grambling, Kansas, and Virginia. He then completed 10 of 26 passes for 107 yards against SMU in one of the season's worst offensive performances, got arrested, and left the team for rehab. He was back with the team this spring with "the color back in his face," and if his head is on straight, he could very well be the best quarterback in the Big 12. He has completed two-thirds of his career passes, with 36 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. He's big, mobile, accurate, and exciting.

With him at quarterback, TCU's passing game could be both efficient and explosive; leading receiver Josh Boyce is gone, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that Brandon Carter (last year's No. 2) and LaDarius Brown (No. 5) are ready to thrive as go-tos. Throw in Cam White and interesting transfers like Florida's Ja'Juan Story, and you've got a potentially great aerial attack.

Stay in the game, Casey.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
B.J. Catalon	RB	5'9, 190	So.	*** (5.7)	121	584	4.8	4.8	0	-2.2
Matthew Tucker	RB				118	515	4.4	3.1	6	-6.5
Trevone Boykin	QB	6'2, 215	So.	*** (5.6)	103	582	5.7	5.6	3	+9.6
Aundre Dean	RB				63	278	4.4	5.2	0	-1.8
Casey Pachall	QB	6'5, 230	Sr.	**** (5.8)	18	62	3.4	4.2	0	-2.0
Waymon James	RB	5'8, 203	Sr.	**** (5.9)	17	168	9.9	9.0	1	+7.4
Skye Dawson	WR				11	46	4.2	2.7	0	-0.5
Aaron Green (Nebraska 2011)	RB	5'11, 200	So.	**** (5.9)	24	105	4.4	N/A	2	N/A
Jordan Moore	RB	6'3, 210	So.	*** (5.6)
Kyle Hicks	RB	5'10, 190	Fr.	**** (5.8)

4. Hey, Waymon

I also wrote this last year:

Running backs Matthew Tucker and Waymon James. A fantastic trio of running backs became a duo when Ed Wesley left the team this offseason. But barring a run of injuries or suspensions, two great running backs are typically enough.

Whoops. Injuries resulted in the two combining for just 125 carries in 2012 -- 17 from James (who was lost with a knee injury in the second game) and 118 from a limping Tucker. Boykin and B.J. Catalon ended up carrying the bulk of the load for the running game, and while Catalon was certainly acceptable, he wasn't Tucker (when full-speed) or James.

Since the start of the 2011 season, James has averaged a ridiculous 7.6 yards per carry. If he is ready to carry the primary load, TCU should easily improve on last year's No. 94 ranking in Rushing S&P+, even if the mobile Boykin is on the bench.

Waymon James. John Reiger, US Presswire.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Josh Boyce

101

891

65.3%

8.8

26.4%

63.4%

8.9

108.3

Brandon Carter

5'11, 186

Jr.

*** (5.7)

590

60.0%

9.8

15.7%

46.7%

10.6

71.7

Skye Dawson

455

65.4%

8.8

13.6%

65.4%

8.6

55.3

Cam White

6'3, 200

Jr.

*** (5.7)

284

48.8%

6.6

11.2%

60.5%

6.6

34.5

LaDarius Brown

6'4, 220

So.

**** (5.9)

385

69.2%

9.9

10.2%

66.7%

10.2

46.8

B.J. Catalon

5'9, 190

So.

*** (5.7)

152

67.6%

4.5

8.9%

50.0%

4.8

18.5

Matthew Tucker

55.6%

3.8

4.7%

33.3%

4.0

8.4

Corey Fuller

87.5%

10.0

2.1%

100.0%

6.0

9.7

David Porter

6'0, 197

Jr.

*** (5.7)

33.3%

3.0

1.6%

0.0%

2.4

2.2

Griffin Gilbert

6'5, 220

So.

**** (5.8)

50.0%

2.8

1.0%

75.0%

2.2

1.3

Kolby Listenbee

6'1, 183

So.

*** (5.7)

33.3%

19.7

0.8%

0.0%

11.7

7.2

Ja'Juan Story (Florida)

6'4, 208

So.

**** (5.8)

Josh Doctson (Wyoming)

6'4, 185

So.

*** (5.5)

Ty Slanina

6'0, 182

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Charlie Reid

6'4, 225

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Cameron Echols-Luper

6'0, 190

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.8	2.67	2.51	37.6%	72.4%	19.9%	62.6	5.6%	8.0%
Rank	91	98	110	77	39	81	115	77	88

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Blaize Foltz	RG				27 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Big 12
James Fry	C				25 career starts
Eric Tausch	C	6'3, 300	Sr.	** (5.4)	14 career starts
Aviante Collins	RT	6'6, 285	So.	*** (5.5)	13 career starts
Tayo Fabuluje	RT	6'7, 315	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12 career starts
Joey Hunt	LG	6'3, 288	So.	*** (5.6)	1 career start
John Wooldridge	RG	6'5, 310	Sr.	*** (5.5)	1 career start
Halapoulivaati Vaitai	RT	6'6, 308	So.	*** (5.7)
Brady Foltz	LG	6'4, 325	So.	*** (5.6)
Jamelle Naff	RG	6'4, 325	So.	*** (5.7)
James Dunbar	LT	6'6, 305	Sr.	*** (5.6)
Michael Thompson	RG	6'5, 352	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Lloyd Tunstill	OL	6'4, 305	Jr.	** (5.3)
Eason Fromayan	RT	6'5, 280	Fr.	*** (5.6)

5. A line liability

You know what makes life even more difficult when you've got a freshman quarterback and a freshman running back? A line that struggles to create opportunities for them. A year after losing three starters, including all-Mountain West guard Kyle Dooley, to graduation, TCU's line struggled quite a bit. One has to assume that the line's life was made more difficult by the freshmen, too, but regardless, TCU's line stats stunk. The Horned Frogs were decent in short-yardage situations (Power Success Rate) but often allowed defenders into the backfield and created a mediocre-at-best number of opportunities for Catalon and company. They also allowed a ton of sacks, but I'll write that off to some degree as part of Boykin's learning process -- the sack rates were nice and small when Pachall was behind center.

Five players return with starting experience, which certainly doesn't hurt, but even with Pachall, James, Carter, and company all healthy and ready to explode, the offense still has a lower ceiling if the line doesn't improve.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	16	15	10	19
RUSHING	10	11	10	15
PASSING	42	22	16	29
Standard Downs		21	14	28
Passing Downs		10	5	13
Redzone		25	10	46

Q1 Rk	13	1st Down Rk	23
Q2 Rk	10	2nd Down Rk	11
Q3 Rk	28	3rd Down Rk	7
Q4 Rk	6

6. The defense was young and thin … and improved

Damn, can Gary Patterson and coordinator Dick Bumpas coach a defense. A year after TCU struggled more than expected, then lost players unexpectedly, TCU fielded a defense that improved from 75th to 22nd in Passing S&P+, from 76th to 10th on passing downs, from 49th to 25th in Redzone S&P+, and from 41st to 12th in overall Def. F/+. The 4-2-5 scheme Patterson long ago mastered was a perfect fit in the spread-out Big 12, and even with some midseason struggles -- 471 yards to Oklahoma State, 56 points (in overtime) to Texas Tech -- TCU finished strong, allowing just 4.4 yards per play versus Kansas State and Texas, allowing just 24 points to Oklahoma, and giving up just 227 yards to Michigan State.

Those numbers are impressive enough on their face. But look at the players listed below. Two of the top three linemen were freshmen (and the third was a sophomore). Four of the top five linebackers were sophomores. Five of the top seven defensive backs were freshmen or sophomores. Now the Horned Frogs are in an incredible position, returning nine starters and basically all of last year's second string.

This defense has a very good chance of once again reaching the top five in Def. F/+, and while you will always allow yards and points in the Big 12, the defense could put TCU in a position to make a serious run at the conference title, especially with Pachall and James back on offense.

7. Somehow, passing was the more palatable option

TCU's pass defense improved dramatically in 2012, partially because of the improvement of the pass rush (star recruit Devonte Fields made an enormous impact as a true freshman) and partially because corners Jason Verrett and Kevin White were football magnets. They combined to defense 31 passes (22 from Verrett), and a new corps of safeties stepped up nicely.

But it was still quite a bit easier to pass on TCU than to run. An incredibly young defensive line held up beautifully to run blocking, and the 4-2-5 scheme, anchored by linebackers Kenny Cain and Joel Hasley, was once again effective at so quickly swarming to the football. Cain is gone, as is end Stansly Maponga, but literally everybody else returns from last year's squad. Assuming your typical year-to-year, experience-keyed improvement, we should probably expect TCU to move from 11th in Rushing S&P+ to at least seventh or eighth, and from 22nd in Passing S&P+ to at least 16th or 18th. TCU was occasionally leaky against the pass last year (18-for-33 for 324 yards versus OSU, a strange 19-for-39 for 303 versus Kansas), but those leaks should get plugged pretty well in 2013. Good luck figuring out how to move the ball against this D, at least after Fields returns from a two-game suspension that will hurt TCU against LSU.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	114.6	2.48	3.02	33.2%	61.1%	23.4%	136.0	4.5%	7.4%
Rank	15	12	41	10	24	16	15	70	50

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Devonte Fields

6'4, 240

So.

**** (5.8)

43.5

6.7%

18.5

Chucky Hunter

6'1, 300

Jr.

**** (5.8)

29.5

4.6%

3.5

Davion Pierson

6'2, 305

So.

*** (5.5)

25.0

3.9%

7.5

3.5

Stansly Maponga

20.5

3.2%

6.5

Jon Koontz

6'2, 265

Sr.

10.5

1.6%

David Johnson

6'2, 285

Jr.

*** (5.7)

6.0

0.9%

Jon Lewis

6'2, 290

Jr.

*** (5.6)

4.5

0.7%

James McFarland

6'3, 248

So.

*** (5.7)

4.0

0.6%

0.5

Josh Carraway

6'4, 240

So.

** (5.4)

4.0

0.6%

Terrell Lathan

6'5, 280

So.

*** (5.7)

2.0

0.3%

Matt Anderson

6'3, 245

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Mike Tuaua

6'3, 260

So.

Tevin Lawson

6'4, 275

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kenny Cain	SLB				13	67.5	10.5%	5.5	1.5	2	4	0	1
Joel Hasley	MLB	6'1, 223	Jr.	NR	12	62.0	9.6%	8.5	2	0	2	0	0
Jonathan Anderson	MLB	6'3, 208	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	23.0	3.6%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Marcus Mallet	SLB	6'1, 227	Jr.	*** (5.7)	12	15.5	2.4%	5	0	0	1	1	0
Paul Dawson	SLB	6'2, 230	Jr.	NR	13	11.0	1.7%	1	0	0	0	1	0
Alex Adewunmi	LB	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	8	5.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dac Shaw	LB	6'2, 200	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Paul Whitmill	LB	5'11, 200	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Elisha Olabode	FS	5'11, 193	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	59.5	9.2%	3	0	4	9	2	1
Jason Verrett	CB	5'10, 176	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	54.5	8.4%	5	0	6	16	0	0
Sam Carter	SS	6'1, 215	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	51.0	7.9%	6.5	3	4	10	1	0
Chris Hackett	WS	6'2, 195	So.	*** (5.7)	13	49.0	7.6%	1.5	0	2	5	1	2
Kevin White	CB	5'10, 174	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	32.0	5.0%	0	0	1	8	0	0
Derrick Kindred	SS	5'10, 210	So.	** (5.4)	12	17.0	2.6%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Geoff Hooker	FS	5'10, 186	Jr.	NR	13	10.0	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Keivon Gamble	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	7.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Trent Thomas	SS	5'11, 190	Sr.	** (5.4)	8	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zach Jackson	WS	6'0, 185	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
George Baltimore	DB	6'0, 205	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. Best defense in the Big 12

I'm just repeating myself now, aren't I? Here are last year's Big 12 Def. F/+ rankings:

1. TCU (+14.6%, 12th overall)
2. Kansas State (+12.9%, 16th)
3. Oklahoma (+10.6%, 23rd)
4. Oklahoma State (+10.0%, 24th)
5. Texas (+4.5%, 40th)
6. Iowa State (+3.0%, 47th)
7. Texas Tech (-1.1%, 64th)
8. West Virginia (-2.4%, 69th)
9. Baylor (-5.1%, 79th)
10. Kansas (-6.0%, 84th)

Kansas State must replace nearly every starter, Oklahoma's secondary has been hit hard by graduation/attrition, and Oklahoma State is breaking in a new defensive coordinator after the old, incredibly underrated one was ousted. This isn't going to be the strongest year for Big 12 defenses, even if Texas bounces back as I assume it will. Meanwhile, TCU should field a top-10 unit.

And since I am indeed repeating myself here, I'll instead just take the time to remind you of this:

This just happened. RT @JasonKirkSBN: http://t.co/W2JSAUcJyH
— edsbs (@edsbs) June 16, 2013

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ethan Perry	6'4, 230	So.	63	44.5	10	20	19	61.9%
Cale Patterson			3	34.4	1	1	0	33.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Jaden Oberkrom	6'3, 187	So.	70	61.5	33	47.1%
Ryan DeNucci	5'10, 195	Jr.	3	61.7	1	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jaden Oberkrom	6'3, 187	So.	42-42	11-16	68.8%	11-14	78.6%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Skye Dawson	KR			20	23.1	0
Brandon Carter	KR	5'11, 186	Jr.	7	25.1	0
Skye Dawson	PR			17	9.4	0
Deante' Gray	PR	5'10, 175	So.	7	22.4	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	55
Net Punting	41
Net Kickoffs	24
Touchback Pct	26
Field Goal Pct	57
Kick Returns Avg	49
Punt Returns Avg	19

9. Cannon Oberkrom

Jaden Oberkrom booted half of his kickoffs for touchbacks and made a higher percentage of his long field goals (40-plus yards) than his short ones. He has an absolute cannon, and there's a good chance that he doesn't really know where a given kick is going to go. That's fun. It's also possible that he will become even more of a weapon if TCU's offense improves enough to score a few more touchdowns and settle for fewer field goals.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	vs. LSU	3
7-Sep	SE Louisiana	NR
14-Sep	at Texas Tech	42
28-Sep	SMU	82
5-Oct	at Oklahoma	7
12-Oct	Kansas	104
19-Oct	at Oklahoma State	6
26-Oct	Texas	11
2-Nov	West Virginia	41
9-Nov	at Iowa State	76
16-Nov	at Kansas State	40
30-Nov	Baylor	36

Five-Year F/+ Rk	6
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	34
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+3 / +2.7
TO Luck/Game	0.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (7, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-0.6

10. Time to surge

There is no consensus favorite in the Big 12 this year. The early publications suggest that writers really have no idea what to do with this conference, so allow me to make the case for TCU. The Horned Frogs have more proven quantities than Oklahoma, have fielded a more consistently strong defense than Oklahoma State (and could have a better offensive backfield, too), and won at Texas last year. Even with a terribly young team, they proved solid on the road, and call me crazy, but they probably aren't going to go winless at home in conference again.

TCU survived the roughest year imaginable in 2012 and emerged with a team that is both healthy and absurdly experienced. The defense will probably be lights-out, and if Casey Pachall and Waymon James can stay on the field, the Horned Frogs should expect quite an offensive surge.

Last year, I was hedging my bets like crazy on TCU. This year, I'm outright stating that, barring injury and other issues, this will almost definitely be a top-20 team, will probably be a top-15, and could quite possibly be a top-10 team. The numbers love them, and the eyeballs should, too. Stay in the game, Casey.