2013 Texas football's 10 things to know: Year 3 of an unintentional 3-year plan

Mack Brown's reputation is still taking hits because of Texas' 2010 collapse. And perhaps that's justifiable. But the Longhorns have slowly rebuilt themselves in the past two seasons, and with a ridiculously experienced two-deep and reasonably good health, they could play at an elite level in 2013. For more Horns, visit Texas sites Burnt Orange Nation and Barking Carnival.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jun 20, 2013, 10:28am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Why so glum?

For a typical team that improved from 5-7 and 67th in F/+ to 8-5 and 19th, we would look at consolidation of gains as a success. Win eight or nine games again, solidify a Top 25 ranking after drastic improvement, and you've done well. But this is Texas, of course. It is difficult to imagine that anything other than 10-plus wins and a run at the conference title will be viewed as a success.

That's how I defined success for the 2012 Texas Longhorns in last year's preview. Win eight or nine games again? Check. Solidify a top 25 F/+ ranking? Check. Failing to view that as a success? Big, big check.

Texas fans are not a very happy lot these days, saddled with a hopeful but persistent "When will Mack Brown retire?" distraction after every loss or less-than-impressive win. But if we ignore some of the pervasive context, if we put aside the program we're dealing with -- the richest program in the country, one with its own network and the easiest recruiting pitch this side of Tuscaloosa -- and simply take a sober look at the numbers, here's what we know: Texas cratered to an unfathomable degree in 2010, rebounded in 2011, and survived an impossible combination of youth and injuries to either hold steady (in the F/+ rankings) or improve (in the win column) in 2012. We also know that the Longhorns return their quarterback, top three running backs, top two receivers, top five offensive linemen, nine defensive starters, and last year's entire defensive second string.

Those who want Mack Brown gone are really still evaluating him for what happened three years ago, not what has happened since. And that's probably fair. The 2010 season was an incredible, perhaps unforgivable disaster for a program with Texas' resources. Brown himself admitted that he fell into a funk following the 2009 BCS title game loss, and it affected his coaching. So, too, did a coaching staff long past its sell-by date. He has changed assistants and cycled through a disappointing roster. He has not corrected every problem, and he may never do so. But the road back from 2010 has been a long one, and there is a very good chance that the rebuilding effort will bear serious fruit in 2013. (I mean, it kind of already has -- 17 wins in two years is far from awful -- but you know what I mean.)

When you fall apart as Texas did three years ago, there is no immediate pathway back to success, no matter how much you want it to exist, no matter how much money you give to the football program, and no matter how much your chief in-state competition in College Station surged last year. But Texas is knocking on the ruling class' door once again, and it has the experience and talent to do some serious, serious damage this fall.

Or, to put it another way, look at the chart below. After ranking first in F/+ in 2005, Texas fell to 21st and 18th in 2006-07, then peaked again (third in both 2008 and 2009) with the talent and experience coalesced. If you remove the 2010 outlier, you see a Texas team that ranked 21st and 24th in 2011-12, barely below the 2006-07 level and ready to peak again.

You've been warned.

More: Bill C. previews the rest of the Big 12 And everyone else, too

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 \| Adj. Record: 10-3 \| Final F/+ Rk: 24
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Wyoming	37-17	W	28.0 - 24.2	W
8-Sep	New Mexico	45-0	W	29.0 - 13.9	W
15-Sep	at Ole Miss	66-31	W	56.1 - 27.6	W
29-Sep	at Oklahoma State	41-36	W	34.1 - 35.9	L
6-Oct	West Virginia	45-48	L	28.6 - 29.1	L
13-Oct	vs. Oklahoma	21-63	L	24.5 - 33.8	L
20-Oct	Baylor	56-50	W	36.3 - 30.0	W
27-Oct	at Kansas	21-17	W	22.7 - 20.1	W
3-Nov	at Texas Tech	31-22	W	43.1 - 23.4	W
10-Nov	Iowa State	33-7	W	44.5 - 27.4	W
22-Nov	TCU	13-20	L	27.3 - 24.7	W
1-Dec	at Kansas State	24-42	L	32.0 - 25.0	W
29-Dec	vs. Oregon State	31-27	W	28.7 - 18.4	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	35.7	23	29.2	73
Adj. Points Per Game	33.5	32	25.7	42

2. The one guy who couldn't get hurt, got hurt

Three weeks into the season, Texas was looking like one of the best teams in the country. The Longhorns took their time easing past a bad Wyoming team in the season opener, but they handled New Mexico with relative ease, and they put a whipping on Ole Miss that would only look more impressive as the Rebels began to actually look like a decent team soon thereafter.

But in the second quarter against Ole Miss, Jordan Hicks, the anchor of the Texas linebacking corps, and the defense as a whole, went down with a hip injury. The effects were sudden and obvious.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Texas 37.7, Opponent 21.9 (plus-15.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 32.2, Texas 30.9 (minus-2.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 6 games): Texas 33.1, Opponent 23.2 (plus-9.9)

Aside from the Ole Miss outlier, Texas' offense rather consistently played at an above average level -- not great, not terrible. (It was terrible against Kansas and perhaps Oklahoma, but that's about it.)

But the defense went from almost a touchdown better than average to almost a touchdown worse. The Longhorns gave up an average of 49 points and 580 yards in the four games following Hicks' injury (and yes, these four games were all against good to great offenses), and even though it rebounded over the final six games, losses to West Virginia and Oklahoma defined the season, as did a tight, turnover-laden loss to TCU. Texas was mostly good, but a month-long defensive funk took the shine off of the season as a whole. (Month-long funks tend to do that.)

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	40	34	30	32
RUSHING	49	23	24	29
PASSING	42	35	39	30
Standard Downs		32	33	32
Passing Downs		31	33	28
Redzone		48	25	72

Q1 Rk	29	1st Down Rk	27
Q2 Rk	28	2nd Down Rk	22
Q3 Rk	52	3rd Down Rk	21
Q4 Rk	5

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

David Ash

6'3, 223

Jr.

*** (5.7)

214

318

2,699

67.3%

3.0%

8.0

Case McCoy

6'2, 200

Sr.

*** (5.6)

722

71.1%

1.3%

9.4

Connor Brewer

6'2, 195

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

Jalen Overstreet

6'2, 212

RSFr.

*** (5.6)

Tyrone Swoopes

6'4, 245

Fr.

**** (5.8)

3. Making your mistakes count

David Ash's stats make you do a double-take. A true sophomore in 2012, Ash completed more than two-thirds of his passes with a better than two-to-one TD-to-INT ratio, a healthy sack rate and decent running ability. To understand how impressive that is, just look at Colt McCoy's stats as a redshirt sophomore in 2007: 65 percent completion rate, 22-to-18 TDs to INTs, 5.5 percent sack rate, 7.0 yards per pass attempt. McCoy's rushing stats were better, but that's it.

Ash compares very, very well to McCoy, but we've been rather slow to warm to him -- we still aren't certain that he's better than Case McCoy, and we're assuming that a mobile quarterback like Jalen Overstreet or Tyrone Swoopes will have a role to play this year -- in part because his downside is still pretty low. In losses to Oklahoma and TCU, Ash completed just 23 of 50 passes for 217 yards, no touchdowns, and four picks. (He was injured for the KSU loss.) On the rare occasion that he looked bad, he looked awful. But again, McCoy had his moments, too. In 2007, for instance, McCoy went 19-for-39 with four picks in a loss to Kansas State.

In the end, Texas ranked 18th in Off. F/+ in 2012, just like it did with McCoy in 2007 before jumping to fourth in 2008 and ninth in 2009. Maybe another quarterback does steal some of Ash's snaps in 2013, but that could only be a good thing for Texas because Ash should be pretty damn good.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Johnathan Gray	RB	5'11, 207	So.	***** (6.1)	149	698	4.7	4.1	3	+1.0
Joe Bergeron	RB	6'1, 240	Jr.	*** (5.7)	127	567	4.5	4.2	16	+0.0
Malcolm Brown	RB	6'0, 223	Jr.	***** (6.1)	61	324	5.3	5.2	4	+4.8
David Ash	QB	6'3, 223	Jr.	*** (5.7)	41	212	5.2	4.9	2	+1.7
Daje Johnson	WR-H	5'10, 184	So.	**** (5.8)	27	203	7.5	12.3	1	+6.2
D.J. Monroe	WR-Z				19	162	8.5	5.5	3	+7.6
Marquise Goodwin	WR-Z				14	181	12.9	27.5	3	+11.7
Jaxon Shipley	WR-H	6'1, 192	Jr.	**** (5.9)	8	53	6.6	3.5	0	+1.1
Jeremy Hills	RB				7	33	4.7	2.3	1	+0.4
Case McCoy	QB	6'2, 200	Sr.	*** (5.6)	7	26	3.7	3.3	0	-1.1

4. A top-25 running game is still underachieving

The Texas running game is pretty clear proof of the burden of expectations. With a trio of super-young running backs (two true sophomores and a true freshman) and an offensive line that featured no seniors, Texas improved from 50th in Rushing S&P+ in 2011 to 23rd in 2012. Offensive co-coordinators Bryan Harsin and Major Applewhite seemed to get a much stronger grasp of the personnel at hand, and with Ash's development bringing more quality to the passing game, the offense clicked at a much higher level.

That's good ... at least until you see the star ratings. Texas featured two five-star running backs who played like three-star grinders, and the offensive line featured one five-star starter and four four-stars but couldn't even rank in the top 60 in Adj. Line Yards. The line was strong in power situations but struggled to create opportunities for its young backs, and the backs may have been too young to take full advantage of the opportunities they had. The play-calling was solid, and the execution was good enough, but with these recruiting rankings, it's supposed to be great.

To the extent that youth was an issue in 2012, however, it won't be anymore. Johnathan Gray, Joe Bergeron, and Malcolm Brown all return, and the five starters on the line have combined for 124 career starts, one of the highest totals in the country. The line has been a constant disappointment (relative to recruiting rankings) in recent years, but experience abounds. If Texas had a top-25 run game last year, it should be at least top-15 to -20 this season.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Mike Davis

WR-X

6'2, 193

Sr.

**** (6.0)

939

66.3%

10.9

22.9%

53.5%

11.3

130.4

Jaxon Shipley

WR-H

6'1, 192

Jr.

**** (5.9)

737

78.7%

9.8

20.0%

53.3%

9.8

102.4

Marquise Goodwin

WR-Z

299

62.5%

7.5

10.7%

55.0%

7.5

41.5

Daje Johnson

WR-H

5'10, 184

So.

**** (5.8)

287

82.6%

12.5

6.1%

78.3%

13.5

39.9

Jeremy Hills

130

72.7%

5.9

5.9%

36.4%

6.4

18.1

D.J. Grant

125

66.7%

6.0

5.6%

57.1%

5.9

17.4

Malcolm Brown

6'0, 223

Jr.

***** (6.1)

112

78.9%

5.9

5.1%

52.6%

6.0

15.6

Johnathan Gray

5'11, 207

So.

***** (6.1)

151

73.3%

10.1

4.0%

60.0%

10.0

21.0

M.J. McFarland

6'6, 245

So.

**** (5.8)

125

53.3%

8.3

4.0%

46.7%

10.0

17.4

Joe Bergeron

6'1, 240

Jr.

*** (5.7)

75.0%

7.0

3.2%

58.3%

6.9

11.7

Ryan Roberson

72.7%

3.0

2.9%

72.7%

3.4

4.6

Bryant Jackson

WR-H

6'2, 199

Jr.

**** (5.8)

140

100.0%

17.5

2.1%

50.0%

17.8

19.4

Greg Daniels

6'5, 258

Jr.

**** (5.8)

62.5%

11.3

2.1%

75.0%

10.0

12.5

D.J. Monroe

WR-Z

85.7%

5.6

1.9%

71.4%

5.4

Cayleb Jones

WR-Z

6'3, 200

So.

**** (6.0)

40.0%

7.0

1.3%

60.0%

7.0

4.9

Kendall Sanders

WR-X

6'0, 183

So.

**** (6.0)

50.0%

3.8

1.1%

100.0%

2.3

2.1

Marcus Johnson

WR-Z

6'1, 189

So.

*** (5.7)

Geoff Swaim

6'4, 250

Jr.

*** (5.5)

Jake Oliver

6'4, 194

Fr.

**** (5.9)

Jacorey Warrick

5'10, 168

Fr.

**** (5.8)

5. More Daje, please

To be sure, Mike Davis had some stellar moments in 2012. Against Ole Miss, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Iowa State, he caught 22 of 27 passes for 550 yards (20.4 per target) and five touchdowns. That's ridiculously good. But in the other nine games, he caught 35 of 59 for 389 yards (6.6 per target) and two scores. He combined with Jaxon Shipley to form a decent one-two punch, but the receiving corps lacked consistency, and the scariest player for opposing defenses was, despite mediocre averages, almost always former track star Marquise Goodwin. But Daje Johnson, a true freshman in 2012, did quite a few Goodwin things and could be ready to do a lot more.

We shouldn't glean much from one game, but it bears mentioning that in his first game as a solo offensive coordinator (Bryan Harsin left to take the Arkansas State head coaching job), Major Applewhite utilized Goodwin to great success: four catches for 68 yards, one reverse for 64 yards, two touchdowns. Johnson appears to have a similar skill set, but if he provides a steady threat of explosiveness, and Applewhite utilizes him a bit more than Goodwin was during his career, this offense could hum.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.5	3.00	2.44	38.5%	78.6%	17.4%	108.9	4.0%	4.4%
Rank	67	59	114	69	10	37	55	51	27

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Trey Hopkins	LG	6'4, 300	Sr.	**** (5.9)	29 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Big 12
Mason Walters	RG	6'6, 320	Sr.	***** (6.1)	38 career starts
Dominic Espinosa	C	6'4, 300	Jr.	**** (5.9)	26 career starts
Josh Cochran	RT	6'6, 299	Jr.	**** (5.8)	20 career starts
Donald Hawkins	LT	6'5, 310	Sr.	**** (5.8)	11 career starts
Luke Poehlmann	RT				5 career starts
Sedrick Flowers	LG	6'3, 313	So.	**** (5.8)
Garrett Porter	C	6'6, 315	Sr.	**** (6.0)
Thomas Ashcraft	RG
Garrett Greenlea	RT	6'7, 305	So.	**** (5.8)
Taylor Doyle	LG	6'5, 290	So.	*** (5.7)
Kennedy Estelle	LT	6'7, 300	So.	**** (5.9)
Curtis Riser	RG	6'4, 305	RSFr.	**** (5.9)
Camrhon Hughes	OT	6'7, 320	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Desmond Harrison	OL	6'8, 305	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Darius James	OL	6'5, 319	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Kent Perkins	OL	6'5, 300	Fr.	**** (6.0)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	68	34	27	36
RUSHING	90	65	53	81
PASSING	36	18	18	22
Standard Downs		32	36	32
Passing Downs		34	23	48
Redzone		35	48	34

Q1 Rk	51	1st Down Rk	24
Q2 Rk	20	2nd Down Rk	25
Q3 Rk	57	3rd Down Rk	37
Q4 Rk	15

6. So many big plays on the ground

Again, it bears mentioning that when Texas was at its weakest point -- when Hicks went down and Manny Diaz was forced to scramble for replacements -- the Longhorns also faced a ridiculous slate of offenses: Oklahoma State (12th in Off. F/+), West Virginia (15th), Oklahoma (sixth), and Baylor (third). Those offenses will exacerbate any weaknesses you've got, and Texas had quite a few of them.

But these teams found particular success on the ground, averaging 299 rushing yards per game against the 'Horns. A lot of those yards came in sudden bursts.

7. It wasn't just the linebackers

Texas ranked a terrible 81st in Rushing PPP+, but while our tendency is to pin that mostly on a shaky linebacking corps that got shakier without Hicks, that wasn't the only problem.

Look at the line stats below: Texas was 102nd in Opportunity Rate (the ability of the opposing offensive line to create opportunities for its runners) and 116th in Power Success Rate (exactly what it sounds like). Those numbers are unadjusted for opponent, but they are still awful. A young set of defensive tackles oscillated between making plays (Desmond Jackson, Ashton Dorsey, Malcom Brown, and Chris Whaley combined for 23 tackles for loss) and getting knocked over. Plus, Dorsey missed four games, and end Jackson Jeffcoat missed the last half of the season.

Shaky line play versus the run puts a lot of pressure on the linebackers, and Texas' linebackers did not respond well. UT started seven different players at the three LB positions, constantly shuffling to find the right mix. And while, again, the defense eventually rounded back into decent form, the October Apocalypse prevented the 'Horns from threatening for the conference title.

Jackson Jeffcoat. Mark D. Smith, US Presswire.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.3	2.91	3.37	41.8%	79.1%	20.0%	219.1	8.8%	11.7%
Rank	59	59	78	102	116	52	1	2	5

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Okafor	DE				13	55.0	6.7%	18	12.5	0	1	4	0
Cedric Reed	BUCK	6'6, 250	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	34.0	4.1%	8	2.5	0	1	0	1
Jackson Jeffcoat	DE	6'5, 245	Sr.	***** (6.1)	6	23.5	2.9%	11	4	0	1	2	1
Desmond Jackson	DT	6'1, 300	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	23.0	2.8%	7	2	0	0	0	0
Reggie Wilson	BUCK	6'3, 259	Sr.	**** (6.0)	13	22.0	2.7%	3	2	0	0	0	0
Ashton Dorsey	DT	6'2, 295	Sr.	**** (5.9)	9	20.5	2.5%	10	0	0	1	0	0
Malcom Brown	NT	6'4, 315	So.	***** (6.1)	13	17.0	2.1%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Whaley	NT	6'3, 292	Sr.	**** (5.9)	13	16.5	2.0%	4	0	0	2	0	1
Brandon Moore	DT				12	11.5	1.4%	8	2	0	1	0	0
Shiro Davis	DE	6'3, 236	So.	**** (5.8)	7	3.0	0.4%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Hasaan Ridgeway	DT	6'4, 300	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Paul Boyette, Jr.	DT	6'4, 295	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Bryce Cottrell	BUCK	6'3, 230	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Caleb Bluiett	DE	6'3, 250	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Jake Raulerson	DE	6'5, 262	Fr.	**** (5.9)

Linebackers

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Steve Edmond

MLB

6'3, 255

Jr.

**** (6.0)

77.0

9.4%

Kendall Thompson

WLB

6'3, 239

Jr.

**** (5.8)

44.0

5.3%

Demarco Cobbs

SLB

6'2, 218

Sr.

**** (5.8)

24.5

3.0%

Tevin Jackson

WLB

6'2, 233

Jr.

**** (6.0)

24.5

3.0%

Peter Jinkens

SLB

6'1, 213

So.

**** (5.8)

23.5

2.9%

Dalton Santos

MLB

6'3, 250

So.

*** (5.7)

20.5

2.5%

Jordan Hicks

WLB

6'2, 235

Jr.

***** (6.1)

17.5

2.1%

Tim Cole

SLB

6'2, 225

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

Aaron Benson

SLB

6'2, 233

Jr.

**** (5.8)

Deoundrei Davis

6'3, 215

Fr.

**** (5.9)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kenny Vaccaro	FS				13	83.5	10.1%	4	0	2	5	2	1
Adrian Phillips	SS	5'11, 201	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	53.5	6.5%	3	0	2	2	0	0
Quandre Diggs	CB	5'10, 200	Jr.	**** (5.9)	13	49.0	6.0%	4	1	4	7	0	0
Carrington Byndom	CB	6'0, 180	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	47.0	5.7%	3	1	3	6	1	0
Mykkele Thompson	FS	6'2, 183	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	45.0	5.5%	1	0	0	1	1	1
Josh Turner	FS	6'0, 177	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	37.5	4.6%	2	1	2	2	0	1
Duke Thomas	CB	5'11, 175	So.	**** (5.8)	13	11.0	1.3%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Leroy Scott	CB	5'10, 193	Jr.	*** (5.7)	12	5.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sheroid Evans	CB	6'0, 185	Jr.	**** (5.8)	9	4.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Vaccaro	SS	5'10, 180	So.	*** (5.5)	11	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bryson Echols	CB	5'10, 180	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Adrian Colbert	SS	6'2, 200	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Antwuan Davis	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	**** (5.9)

8. So many returnees

Kenny Vaccaro was a good enforcer at free safety, and Alex Okafor was absolutely incredible; he logged as many sacks as the rest of the defensive line combined and paved the way for Texas' amazing 10-sack performance versus Oregon State, one that bumped UT to No. 1 in Adj. Sack Rate. These two were tremendous players. They are also the only two defenders Texas must replace.

Literally everybody else of consequence returns on this defense, from sticky corners Quandre Diggs and Carrington Byndom, to the supposedly healthy Hicks and Jeffcoat, to strong safety Adrian Phillips. And all of last year's green linebackers and defensive tackles are, at the very least, experienced now.

Experience alone doesn't make for a good defense, but when you combine experience with a recent track record for success -- here's where Manny Diaz's defenses at Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Texas ranked in Def. F/+ from 2009-11: 33rd (MTSU), 20th (MSU), sixth (UT) -- it is a safe assumption that Texas' defense will improve, perhaps dramatically, in 2013.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Alex King			43	45.3	1	14	16	69.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Nick Rose	6'3, 192	So.	82	60.4	30	36.6%
William Russ	6'4, 185	Jr.	2	64	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Nick Johnson			31-32	8-9	88.9%	1-6	16.7%
Anthony Fera	6'2, 220	Sr.	23-25	1-2	50.0%	1-2	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
D.J. Monroe	KR			21	24.5	1
Marquise Goodwin	KR			13	25.2	0
Daje Johnson	KR	5'10, 184	So.	4	20.8	0
Quandre Diggs	PR	5'10, 200	Jr.	13	8.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	30
Net Punting	4
Net Kickoffs	72
Touchback Pct	66
Field Goal Pct	107
Kick Returns Avg	38
Punt Returns Avg	63

9. An Alex King-sized hole

Despite the issues in run defense, Texas was pretty good at the field position battle in 2012. The Longhorns ran the ball well themselves, but the player most essential to their success in field position was Alex King, an absolutely tremendous punter who bumped Texas into the top five for net punting. A pair of good kick returners are also gone, and it will probably be difficult for Texas to once again finish in the Special Teams F/+ top 30 like it has for three of the last four seasons.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	New Mexico State	123
7-Sep	at BYU	27
14-Sep	Ole Miss	29
21-Sep	Kansas State	40
3-Oct	at Iowa State	76
12-Oct	vs. Oklahoma	7
26-Oct	at TCU	16
2-Nov	Kansas	104
9-Nov	at West Virginia	41
16-Nov	Oklahoma State	6
28-Nov	Texas Tech	42
7-Dec	at Baylor	36

Five-Year F/+ Rk	11
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	11
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+5 / +0.7
TO Luck/Game	1.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	19 (9, 10)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-1.6

10. Instant sports narratives! Just add water

I tend to rebel against the general "This is the year that [Random Historical Power] makes it all the way back!" narrative that we inevitably form from time to time. As a Missouri fan in the old Big 12 North, I used to make fun of this phenomenon all the time. "Okay, now Colorado and/or Nebraska are back! No? What about now? No? ...NOW!"

So when I tell you that Texas is going to be very good, and potentially elite in 2013, realize that I do so understanding the consequences. I also do so with numbers on my side. Teams that return 19 starters improve, often dramatically. Previously great units that were dinged hard by injuries tend to bounce back. Teams that recruit consistently well tend to see the pieces come together when the experience matches the potential. That's just how college football works.

Whether you choose to believe my proclamation or not, realize this: a team with Texas' 2012 offense and special teams and 2011 defense would have ranked seventh in the country in F/+ last year. The 'Horns are close. If the defense rebounds, as experience and recent history tell us it should, and if the offense continues to improve, as experience tells us it should, then Texas will quite likely be the best team in the Big 12.

The schedule does the 'Horns no favors and may preclude a conference title -- of the top four teams in the Big 12 not named Texas, only one comes to Austin -- but after two years of scuffling in the wake of the 2010 disaster, Texas has more pieces in place than it has since 2009. We can keep predicting Mack Brown's any-second-now downfall if we want, but there's a very good chance that Texas is very, very good in 2013.