2013 Washington football's 10 things to know: Seven-win Steve and a healthy foundation

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Perfectly average

What's the most bland, middle-of-the-road FBS program? Like, so perfectly mediocre you'd almost respect them more if they were really awful.

— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) June 21, 2013

In the Adj. Points measure I use below, the idea is to take a team's performance in a given week and gauge what would have happened if that team had played a perfectly average opponent that week instead of whoever it played. It is an attempt to adjust for schedule and look at a team's in-season trends. But really, it could also be titled "WashingtonScore." because Washington has spent most of the last eight seasons as an almost perfectly average team.

In terms of F/+ rankings, the Huskies ranked 78th in 2005, 60th in 2006, 50th in 2007, 63rd in 2009, 70th in 2010, 67th in 2011, and 56th in 2012. Average ranking in those seven seasons: 63.4. Granted, this ignores a year in which they were, in Matt Hinton's words, "really awful" (that would be the 2008 season that saw them go 0-12, rank 117th, and get Ty Willingham fired), but that one outlier aside, there has been almost no trend, just slightly different grades of average football.

That Steve Sarkisian has gotten Washington back to average after the 2008 debacle is impressive. He's come across some nice wins in his four seasons in Seattle (16-13 over No. 3 USC and 42-10 over No. 19 California in 2009, 32-31 over No. 18 USC and 19-7 over No. 17 Nebraska in 2010, 17-13 over No. 8 Stanford and 20-17 over No. 7 Oregon State in 2012, and a 3-1 Apple Cup record versus Washington State).

But he has also come across a rather meager nickname: Seven-Win Steve. Washington has gone 7-6 for three straight years, with nice wins offset by dramatic breakdowns. A brutal schedule kept Washington's win total tamped down a bit, but so did a slipup to Washington State and a blowout loss at Arizona. The defense improved dramatically in its first year under new coordinator Justin Wilcox, but the gains were mostly offset by offensive regression.

2. Youth = ceiling

The main problem in 2012 was youth -- Washington simply had too much of it. The top two running backs were a sophomore and a freshman. The top six receiving targets were four sophomores and two freshmen. Of the eight offensive linemen with starting experience, six were sophomores and two were freshmen. The top three tacklers on the line were sophomores. The top three linebackers were a sophomore and two freshmen. A freshman cornerback was one of the key defensive cogs. Not only was the senior class of little help, but the junior class was almost nonexistent.

There is just no way you can build a consistent team with this much youth involved. And as we'll see below, Washington didn't reach the No. 56 F/+ ranking with perpetually average play -- the Huskies were a frequently good team done in by a handful of outright disasters.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 56
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	San Diego State	21-12	W	27.7 - 22.2	W
8-Sep	at LSU	3-41	L	12.5 - 37.2	L
15-Sep	Portland State	52-13	W	27.4 - 24.8	W
27-Sep	Stanford	17-13	W	25.1 - 12.5	W
6-Oct	at Oregon	21-52	L	31.2 - 29.6	W
13-Oct	USC	14-24	L	27.5 - 22.3	W
20-Oct	at Arizona	17-52	L	20.1 - 35.0	L
27-Oct	Oregon State	20-17	W	23.6 - 28.0	L
2-Nov	at California	21-13	W	28.1 - 26.3	W
10-Nov	Utah	34-15	W	32.9 - 17.0	W
17-Nov	at Colorado	38-3	W	26.1 - 9.4	W
23-Nov	at Washington State	28-31	L	17.2 - 30.6	L
22-Dec	vs. Boise State	26-28	L	36.7 - 22.5	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	24.0	90	24.2	39
Adj. Points Per Game	25.9	84	24.4	32

3. Bad was really bad

Let's look at Washington's Adj. Points averages in two different ways.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 9 games): Opponent 26.4, Washington 24.8 (minus-1.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Washington 28.3, Opponent 19.9 (plus-8.4)

Adj. Points Per Game (vs. LSU, Arizona, & Wazzu): Opponent 34.3, Washington 16.6 (minus-17.7)
Adj. Points Per Game (other 10 games): Washington 28.6, Opponent 21.5 (plus-7.1)

The first set of averages shows us that, in all, Washington showed late-season improvement that, with so many interesting returning pieces, could be sustainable in 2013. The second set of averages tells us that this was a pretty good team that saw its averages wrecked by three specific performances. (Consider this a nice case for use of median versus mean.) But experience tends to improve consistency, which means that both averages here point to potentially nice fortunes for the Huskies moving forward.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	99	58	65	53
RUSHING	86	33	37	30
PASSING	82	80	87	74
Standard Downs		48	49	51
Passing Downs		71	88	56
Redzone		101	102	94

Q1 Rk	79	1st Down Rk	84
Q2 Rk	40	2nd Down Rk	60
Q3 Rk	84	3rd Down Rk	68
Q4 Rk	84

4. Style emphasized weakness

Wilcox was the more high-profile of Washington's two new coordinators last season, but Eric Kiesau certainly made some interesting changes on the offensive side of the ball. (And no, "interesting" doesn't always suggest "good.") Kiesau was California's passing game coordinator in 2011, and he did his part in utilizing a pass-first attack in Seattle; long-term, this could be an interesting fit -- Cal certainly had a lovely passing game for most of the time he was there -- but while Washington seemed to have the receivers to fit what Kiesau wanted to do, his changes did not necessarily fit quarterback Keith Price's skill set.

Kiesau's and Sarkisian's system gives quarterbacks a lot of options and puts pressure on them to make precise, quick reads. When it worked, it was beautiful. When it didn't, it resulted in an indecisive Price either freezing up and getting sacked or throwing the ball away. The latter happened enough to stunt the offense's growth quite a bit.

In 2011, Washington ran the ball 56 percent of the time on standard downs and 33 percent on passing downs; in 2012, those numbers sank to 52 percent and 30 percent. In 2011, Price averaged 30 pass attempts per game, was sacked seven percent of the time, completed 67 percent of his passes, and averaged 7.5 yards per attempt (including sacks). In 2012, he averaged 36 attempts, was sacked eight percent of the time, completed 61 percent of his passes, and averaged a paltry 5.3 yards per attempt. Despite a lovely pair of receiving options in Kasen Williams and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Price was not quick to thrive in this system.

Meanwhile, the emphasis on quick reads and passing potentially took opportunities away from a running game that was much better than expected. Between a season-opening injury to starter Jesse Callier and a line that had to replace all-conference tackle Senio Kelemete (and would be forced to do a ton of shuffling in 2012), it was easy to assume that Washington might struggle to move the ball on the ground. And hell, with a running back corps that was basically sophomore Bishop Sankey and a bunch of freshmen, it's possible that Washington called more pass plays because it didn't have a choice. (And yes, it should also be mentioned that a lot of Washington's packaged option plays include both a run and pass option.)

Regardless, Washington was actually quite proficient on the ground. The Huskies improved from 52nd to 33rd in Rushing S&P+ and from 34th to sixth in Adj. Line Yards. Sankey was not a particularly explosive option, but with the blocking he received, he didn't need to be.

It will be interesting to see how this offense splits between run and pass in 2013. Price, in his second year with this coordinator, could improve just through familiarity and a higher comfort level. But with Sankey, Callier, and explosive (and little-used) sophomore Kendyl Taylor back, along with eight linemen with starting experience (81 career starts), Washington could have one hell of a ground game, too.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Steven Bisig, US Presswire.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp Rate

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Keith Price

6'1, 202

Sr.

*** (5.5)

263

432

2,726

60.9%

19

13

37

7.9%

5.3

Derrick Brown

6'2, 245

So.

*** (5.7)

2

5

23

40.0%

0

1

0

0.0%

4.6

Cyler Miles

6'4, 223

RSFr.

**** (6.0)

Jeff Lindquist

6'3, 234

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

5. Throw the ball, Keith

Keith Price will have options. Sankey and Callier are strong and competent, and in Williams and Seferian-Jenkins, he has one of the best one-two receiving combos in the conference. Seferian-Jenkins is basically everybody's preseason All-American (assuming he's on the field), and with ASJ receiving so much attention, Williams, an all-everything local recruit, has almost become underrated. Washington doesn't really have a field-stretcher in this quick passing game (not a single player could top ASJ's meager per-catch average of 12.3); if that changes with the addition of incoming four-star freshmen Damore'ea Stringfellow and Darrell Daniels, however, this could quickly become one of the nation's best batches of receivers.

That said, the quality of the receiving corps only matters if the quarterback throwing them the ball is actually throwing them the ball. Price hesitated far too much in 2012 and took far too many sacks. He wasn't Braxton Miller-, Tino Sunseri-, or Jordan Webb-esque in this regard, but anything higher than a 5 percent sack rate is damaging to your offense, and Price's was well over 5 percent. Plus, it was nearly 10 percent on standard downs, the downs on which the offense has the advantage and the defense cannot pin its ears back. Hesitation kills.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Bishop Sankey	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	**** (5.8)	291	1,445	5.0	4.1	16	+2.7
Jesse Callier (2011)	RB	5'10, 211	Jr.	*** (5.7)	47	260	5.5	N/A	1	N/A
Kendyl Taylor	RB	5'10, 200	So.	*** (5.7)	33	203	6.2	6.4	0	+3.6
Keith Price	QB	6'1, 202	Sr.	*** (5.5)	32	203	6.3	3.5	2	+3.7
Dezden Petty	RB				29	99	3.4	3.2	0	-2.8
Erich Wilson II	RB				25	140	5.6	3.9	1	+1.0
Ryan McDaniel	RB	6'0, 227	RSFr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Kasen Williams	WR	6'2, 216	Jr.	**** (5.8)	109	77	878	70.6%	8.1	28.1%	57.8%	8.0	112.7
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE	6'6, 266	Jr.	**** (6.0)	96	69	852	71.9%	8.9	24.7%	55.2%	8.8	109.4
Bishop Sankey	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	**** (5.8)	42	33	249	78.6%	5.9	10.8%	50.0%	5.8	32.0
Jaydon Mickens	WR	5'10, 170	So.	**** (5.8)	34	20	190	58.8%	5.6	8.8%	55.9%	5.5	24.4
DiAndre Campbell	WR	6'1, 198	Jr.	** (5.3)	31	16	167	51.6%	5.4	8.0%	51.6%	6.0	21.4
Kendyl Taylor	RB	5'10, 200	So.	*** (5.6)	20	14	110	70.0%	5.5	5.2%	45.0%	5.4	14.1
Cody Bruns	WR				19	13	103	68.4%	5.4	4.9%	52.6%	5.5	13.2
Kevin Smith	WR	5'11, 213	Sr.	**** (5.8)	12	6	68	50.0%	5.7	3.1%	25.0%	4.2	8.7
Michael Hartvigson	TE	6'6, 255	Jr.	*** (5.7)	10	6	55	60.0%	5.5	2.6%	60.0%	5.5	7.1
Evan Hudson	TE	6'5, 262	Jr.	*** (5.5)	5	5	31	100.0%	6.2	1.3%	60.0%	6.2	4.0
Jonathan Amosa	FB				4	2	19	50.0%	4.8	1.0%	75.0%	3.8	2.4
Marvin Hall	WR	5'10, 181	So.	*** (5.5)	3	2	21	66.7%	7.0	0.8%	0.0%	4.2	2.7
Jesse Callier	RB	5'10, 211	Jr.	*** (5.7)	2	2	8	100.0%	4.0	0.5%	100.0%	2.4	1.0
Joshua Perkins	WR	6'3, 216	So.	*** (5.6)
Damore'ea Stringfellow	WR	6'2, 205	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Darrell Daniels	WR	6'4, 205	Fr.	**** (5.8)

6. So many sophomores and juniors

Price cannot use youth as an excuse for his hesitation last year, but it very much bears mentioning that a) Washington played a ridiculous number of freshmen and sophomores in 2012, ans b) you tend to see your biggest improvement in your first two years on campus. Sankey was a sophomore, and his backups were freshmen. Williams and Seferian-Jenkins were both sophomores. And all of Washington's returning line starters were freshmen or sophomores last fall.

Inexperience becomes experience, and enough Washington youngsters showed promise last year that it's easy to envision a pretty high ceiling for the offense in 2013 ... as long as Price is ready to lead it.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	119.0	3.24	3.44	41.1%	70.6%	17.5%	75.8	9.5%	7.4%
Rank	6	18	43	39	50	40	97	119	77

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Drew Schaefer	C				43 career starts
Erik Kohler	RG	6'4, 299	Jr.	**** (5.8)	19 career starts
Micah Hatchie	LT	6'5, 293	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13 career starts
Colin Tanigawa	LG	6'3, 281	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13 career starts
Dexter Charles	LG	6'4, 292	So.	*** (5.6)	11 career starts
Ben Riva	RT	6'6, 302	Jr.	*** (5.7)	8 career starts
Mike Criste	RG	6'5, 295	Jr.	*** (5.6)	7 career starts
James Atoe	RT	6'6, 335	Jr.	** (5.2)	6 career starts
Shane Brostek	RG	6'4, 280	So.	** (5.4)	3 career starts
Siosifa Tufunga	LG	6'2, 307	So.	*** (5.5)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	31	35	24	45
RUSHING	62	42	46	39
PASSING	23	34	14	52
Standard Downs		28	27	31
Passing Downs		48	24	65
Redzone		55	55	64

Q1 Rk	55	1st Down Rk	28
Q2 Rk	30	2nd Down Rk	29
Q3 Rk	43	3rd Down Rk	78
Q4 Rk	27

7. A few too many big plays

Washington's defense wasn't as bad as Baylor made it look in 2011, but it wasn't good. The Huskies ranked 100th in Def. F/+, 107th in Rushing S&P+, and 86th in Adj. Sack Rate. Opponents could run without resistance, and a decent secondary was repeatedly put in impossible positions.

Under Justin Wilcox in 2012, the D came around dramatically. And like the offense, it leaned on an incredibly young core of players in the process. With just marginal improvement in the sack rates, Washington's pass defense became one of the nation's best, and the line held up against the run at least well enough for the linebackers to clean up and for the Huskies to improve to 42nd in Rushing S&P+.

The improvement was profound, especially considering the youth, but Washington did still struggle with big plays at times. The pass defense was aggressive and efficient (14th in Passing Success Rate+) but leaky (52nd in Passing PPP+), and the passing downs defense suffered because of it. (And like the team as a whole, when the defense struggled, it really struggled.)

If experience smooths out the breakdowns, Wilcox's 3-4 could continue to improve.

Josh Shirley. Kirby Lee, USA Today.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	97.5	3.08	3.49	39.9%	73.7%	14.2%	98.2	4.6%	8.1%
Rank	70	88	88	71	100	118	63	66	39

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Danny Shelton	NT	6'1, 317	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	32.5	4.8%	4	0.5	0	0	0	1
Andrew Hudson	DE	6'3, 249	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	31.5	4.7%	9	6.5	0	1	0	1
Josh Shirley	RUSH	6'3, 230	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	27.0	4.0%	9	6.5	0	1	6	0
Talia Crichton	DE				10	13.0	1.9%	1.5	1	0	0	0	2
Semisi Tokolahi	NT				13	12.5	1.8%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Hau'oli Jamora (2011)	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	*** (5.5)	4	11.5	1.6%	3	1	0	0	0	0
Sione Potoa'e	DE	6'2, 271	Sr.	**** (5.9)	13	6.5	1.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Pio Vatuvei	DE	6'2, 281	So.	**** (5.8)	9	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Banks	DE	6'2, 265	Sr.	*** (5.6)	9	5.5	0.8%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Lawrence Lagafuaina	DT	6'0, 317	Jr.	*** (5.5)	3	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarett Finau	DE	6'2, 260	So.	** (5.4)	9	1.5	0.2%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Connor Cree	RUSH	6'4, 245	So.	*** (5.6)
Elijah Qualls	DT	6'1, 282	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Joe Mathis	DE	6'4, 254	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
John Timu	LB	6'1, 231	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	67.5	10.0%	3.5	2	2	4	1	0
Travis Feeney	LB	6'4, 209	So.	*** (5.5)	12	62.5	9.2%	6	4	2	0	1	0
Shaq Thompson	LB	6'2, 225	So.	***** (6.1)	13	59.0	8.7%	8.5	2	3	3	0	1
Thomas Tutogi	LB	6'0, 242	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	32.0	4.7%	3	1	0	0	0	1
Princeton Fuimaono	LB	6'1, 210	Sr.	*** (5.5)	10	24.5	3.6%	1	0	0	0	1	0
Cory Littleton	LB	6'3, 230	So.	*** (5.5)	9	10.0	1.5%	1.5	0	0	0	1	0
Nate Fellner	LB				3	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamaal Kearse	LB	6'1, 226	Jr.	*** (5.7)	5	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Sean Constantine	LB	6'3, 218	Fr.	**** (5.8)

8. The star recruits are adding up

Wilcox was the primary addition to Sarkisian's defensive staff in 2012, but Sarkisian also stole defensive line coach Tosh Lupoi from California, and that move could begin to reap as many rewards. Lupoi is a potentially solid line coach, but his calling card is his recruiting prowess. He steered stud sophomore Shaq Thompson from Cal to Washington, and while the Huskies' recruiting rankings have improved slightly since Tupoi joined the staff (23rd in 2011 according to Rivals.com, then 21st in 2012 and 18th in 2013), the effects on the defense have been particularly noticeable.

Washington will boast three four star freshmen and sophomores up front (along with two four-star upper-classmen), two four- or five-star freshmen or sophomores at linebacker, and two four-star freshmen in the secondary. Throw in a pair of three-star sophomore studs -- corner Marcus Peters, linebacker Travis Feeney -- and you've got yourself a defense that has is improved and could threaten to improve even more.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sean Parker	S	5'10, 190	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	65.5	9.7%	3.5	0	2	4	3	0
Justin Glenn	S				13	61.5	9.1%	1	0	3	2	0	2
Marcus Peters	CB	5'11, 194	So.	*** (5.7)	13	35.0	5.2%	2	0	3	8	0	1
Desmond Trufant	CB				12	31.5	4.7%	4.5	1	1	9	1	1
Tre Watson	CB	5'9, 183	Sr.	** (5.3)	13	21.0	3.1%	0	0	1	4	0	0
Will Shamburger	S	6'0, 185	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	16.0	2.4%	0	0	0	1	0	2
Gregory Ducre	CB	5'10, 177	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	13.0	1.9%	1.5	0	0	3	0	0
Anthony Gobern	S				13	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Taz Stevenson	NB	6'1, 215	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Brandon Beaver	S	6'0, 181	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Jermaine Kelly	DB	6'2, 185	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Trevor Walker	S	5'11, 180	Fr.	*** (5.6)

9. Three awesome sophomores

Washington benefited greatly from the presence of corner Desmond Trufant last year. Picked in the first round of the NFL Draft by Atlanta, Trufant was a true lockdown corner, a rare luxury in college football. He defensed 10 passes, and 4.5 of his 31.5 tackles were behind the line of scrimmage. (If you're defensing 10 passes and only making 31.5 tackles, that means the guy you're covering is almost never catching the ball. Well, that, or when he does, you miss the tackle. In Trufant's case, it was more former than latter.)

What benefited Washington even more, however, was the simple fact that opponents avoiding Trufant still had to throw toward Marcus Peters; just a three-star redshirt freshman, Peters did a remarkable job, defensing more passes than Trufant (11) while logging only 3.5 more tackles. Yes, there was some risk-reward going on here, and yes, Washington gave up a few too many big plays through the air. But Peters held his own for a newbie, and he could become a Trufant-esque star in the coming years.

That Peters wasn't the best freshman in the lineup is staggering. Shaq Thompson has moved from nickelback to linebacker, but with his size, speed, and coverage ability, that should work out just fine. Even with Trufant around, Thompson may have been the best player on the defense. He in no way looked the part of a freshman (even a blue-chip freshman), and he was capable of both making plays behind the line and covering the pass.

The move to linebacker will put him closer to another stud sophomore, Travis Feeney. Throw in linebacker John Timu, and an active trio of junior linemen (Danny Shelton, Andrew Hudson, Josh Shirley), and you've got a lineup that is full of both playmakers and players who could very well return in 2014.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Travis Coons	6'2, 205	Sr.	54	39.8	5	21	15	66.7%
Korey Durkee	6'4, 225	So.	15	36.9	2	5	4	60.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Travis Coons	6'2, 205	Sr.	63	59	11	17.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Travis Coons	6'2, 205	Sr.	39-39	5-7	71.4%	4-7	57.1%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jaydon Mickens	KR	5'10, 170	So.	19	21.5	0
Marvin Hall	KR	5'10, 181	So.	16	22.3	0
Cody Bruns	PR			10	8.2	0
Marvin Hall	PR	5'10, 181	So.	6	5.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	98
Net Punting	104
Net Kickoffs	110
Touchback Pct	108
Field Goal Pct	91
Kick Returns Avg	71
Punt Returns Avg	85

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Boise State	12
14-Sep	vs. Illinois	88
21-Sep	Idaho State	NR
28-Sep	Arizona	30
5-Oct	at Stanford	5
12-Oct	Oregon	2
19-Oct	at Arizona State	34
26-Oct	California	68
9-Nov	Colorado	115
15-Nov	at UCLA	43
23-Nov	at Oregon State	25
29-Nov	Washington State	97

Five-Year F/+ Rk	83
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	18
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+5 / +2.9
TO Luck/Game	+0.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	18 (10, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+0.0

10. Beat Boise State, and everything changes

Even though Keith Price is a senior, and even though this could be the last year that Austin Seferian-Jenkins and/or Kasen Williams don the purple and gold, Washington could be really, really good in 2014. The improving defense is still young, the better-than-expected offensive line is still good, and the running back position is in pretty good hands. The future is looking pretty bright for UW, but I'm not completely sure about the present tense.

The 2013 schedule is both challenging and much easier than last year's. Instead of getting LSU on the road, the Huskies get Boise State at home, and while there are still three games versus projected top-12 teams, there are also six versus teams projected worst than 40th. There are wins to be found here, but my expectations today could change drastically on August 31.

The season opener versus Boise State is enormous. Lose that game (as they will be projected to do), and they're perhaps looking at yet another seven-win season or so. That's certainly not bad, especially with how experienced the Huskies will be in 2014, but if the natives aren't restless now, they definitely would be then. Beat Boise, however (and it bears mentioning that they almost did just that in the Las Vegas Bowl), and you can begin to see how a nine- or 10-win season could come together quickly.

This is a good team that will get better next season. How good the Huskies will be in 2013, however, depends on Keith Price, quick maturation, and August 31.

More from SB Nation:

Follow @SBNationCFB Follow @SBNRecruiting

• The year’s biggest recruiting event is upon us

• Oregon escapes bowl ban, Chip Kelly penalized by NCAA

• Bill Connelly’s Big 12 preview countdown is complete

• Preseason All-America team led by Jadeveon Clowney, Johnny Manziel

• National recruiting coverage

• Today’s college football news headlines